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Posted by paulpauper 3 hours ago

U.S. Soldier Charged with Using Classified Info to Profit from Prediction Market(www.justice.gov)
206 points | 88 comments
k310 2 hours ago|
Nabbing the little guy for show, very much like Henry Hill taking one for Paulie and the gang. The same gang that robbed the Lufthansa vault at JFK Airport, stealing six million dollars in cash and jewelry.

When the history of this administration is written, provided that history itself has not been completely rewritten a la "1984," Goodfellas will be required reading/watching.

And the highly profitable daily mood-induced oil price bets will just be forgotten.

Wilhoit's Law:

Wilhoit's law.

“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

https://pylimitics.net/wilhoits-law/

jandrewrogers 1 hour ago||
> nabbing the little guy

Politics aside, he isn't a "little guy". He apparently holds the rank of master sergeant. That's a senior battalion-level role and somewhat political.

This isn't some random E-4 getting dragged.

herewulf 1 hour ago|||
This might burst some bubbles but this is absolutely a little guy because anything below a field grade officer (or the CSM sidekick below brigade) is a little guy and a battalion is actually quite low on the food chain.

Yes, there are some hard working NCOs and junior Os out there that make shit happen, but they are not the decision makers and make for great fall guys when shit hits the fan.

9x39 1 hour ago||||
Compared to a member of US Congress, or the senior executive branch, or the CEO class, they’re still nobody and the “little guy”.

Not that it’s defensible behavior.

dmschulman 1 hour ago||||
I read this as "why are they going after a soldier who made $30k when they could be going after guys who made seven figures off of expertly timed trades on going to war with Iran"
Aurornis 1 hour ago||
He profited $400K.

Pursuing this case doesn’t mean they’re excluding other cases. If you read the article this case was very clear because he made amateur moves and didn’t conceal his identity at all.

This was an easy nab. All leaks should be pursued regardless of who did it.

jghn 45 minutes ago|||
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Trump's insiders own't be investigated
Forgeties79 42 minutes ago|||
There is zero chance this escalates further off this guy.
spydum 16 minutes ago|||
You could place a prediction bet probably.
defrost 38 minutes ago|||
Careful, you'll have Ka$hPatel wondering who to throw under a bus just for the giggles, the p0wn, and the extra $100 for his stripper lounge charity.
DASD 19 minutes ago||||
If he was "behind the fence", at most he would be a team sergeant or maybe even assistant team sergeant. Talking 4-6 members max.
Forgeties79 43 minutes ago|||
A master sergeant is not remotely significant in the world of politics.
janalsncm 1 hour ago|||
One soldier being arrested does not prevent others from being arrested. If anything, it sets a precedent.

Yesterday, people could justifiably say that betting on polymarket had essentially no consequences.

Today, we learned there can be consequences.

If in a year’s time this is the only person to ever be charged, that’s a different story.

nickburns 2 hours ago|||
They don't call 'em cannon fodder for nothin'!
gabagool 1 hour ago|||
Per Goodfellas, "Paulie and the gang" ended up in jail while Henry Hill received witness protection. So, it wasn't just for show
Aurornis 1 hour ago|||
As other comments said, this wasn’t exactly a “little guy” in rank.

He also made it all very obvious and traceable for them through the email addresses he used. From the report it doesn’t appear that he made any effort to conceal his identity or hide his tracks until afterward, by which time it was too late.

ElProlactin 1 hour ago||
Well, if people in Congress, the Supreme Court, the administration, etc. don't have to conceal their "activities", why should this guy?

He wasn't a "little guy" but apparently his only mistake was not being high enough.

Aurornis 1 hour ago|||
I don’t know why people are trying to defend this guy. We should be upset when anyone tries to use confidential information for personal gain. It’s also a security risk if anyone is incentivized to place bets based on confidential info.

I know you’re trying to make a separate point about Congress, but it’s silly to try to turn this into a class warfare thing. Congress didn’t even have this information at the time.

ElProlactin 27 seconds ago|||
Nobody is defending this person.

> ...but it’s silly to try to turn this into a class warfare thing.

You can ignore the class warfare but the class warfare isn't ignoring you/your country.

jrumbut 22 minutes ago|||
I haven't seen anyone defend his conduct, but it is natural to discuss his political clout because of this line on TFA:

> Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law

What others are saying, IIUC, is that no reasonable person believes an enlisted soldier (even a senior one) is above the law and that in fact there is a history of them being used as fall guys or scapegoats for people who do enjoy protection on the basis of their social class or government position.

Without this specific statement from the FBI director, then it would be "soldier gets caught doing bad thing" and the other part would be off topic. But the article itself introduces the idea of class and impunity.

janalsncm 1 hour ago|||
Because the path to Rule of Law is not deleting/refusing to enforce all laws.

Rule of Law means no one is above the law. In practice this is an aspiration (in the U.S. and everywhere else) but giving up on that isn’t going to make the world better.

bluegatty 1 hour ago|||
Everything about this statement is completely wrong.

False, conspiratorial, dogmatic, juvenile.

The arrest and indictment of someone for betting on Polymarket - which has not yet been tested in court - is going to give huge attention and precedence to the likely illegal activities of some of Polymarket shenanigans coming out of the white house.

Edit: if this was political, it would be pushed in the other direction. This is the NY DOJ doing their jobs.

NikolaNovak 1 hour ago|||
...

I don't think this is going to be Hacker News fascinating discourse, but the current USA administration is so openly, brazenly, continuously, gleefully corrupt; continuously fire people with ethics and competence and bring in the in-group of equally corrupt ; and have continuously been rewarded for that behaviour; that I feel the OP is merely observationally factual.

bluegatty 59 minutes ago|||
The current Executive is 'brazenly criminal', yes, but there is nothing much 'factual; about the OP's comment.

None of this remotely has to do with 'Conservatism', it's certainly not ideological, and it's likely not political either.

This indictment is going to cause a massive headache for White House as they have likely been involved in 'insider trading'.

This is actually regular Justice, finally seeing some movement, to cynically characterize it as otherwise, totally against common sense (aka it's bad for the WH) is just unsound. I think it demonstrates the kind of bubble a lot of people live in, which is maybe understandable in the current climate, where horrible behaviours have gone unpunished. But still. This is the story of a state doj doing their job.

behringer 1 hour ago|||
What? Military trials are not necessarily public.
bluegatty 1 hour ago|||
It's by the Southern District of NY and the case will get national attention.

This is a hugely negative thing for the Administration, as District Attorneys, SEC staff, etc. are going to be actively seeking how this could parlay into investigations and indictments of the people in the White House making Polymarket and other speculative bets just before government actions.

There are 100's lawyers reading that right now getting inspired on how they can take action to turn their investigative powers onto whoever those actors are aka family members or associates of those in the White House / Cabinet.

An investigation could be done at the State Level, away from the control of the DoJ, and, if it yields evidence, it wouldn't have to even make it's way through the courts in order to be political destructive.

The suggestion by the OP this has anything to do with ideology or the ruling power throwing one under the bus is ridiculous. Note that the ruling regime isn't above such a thing, but that's not what is happening here because it definitely does not serve their interests - it's the total opposite.

This could turn into a political nightmare that crashes the party.

Edit: if we want to be 'hopefully cynical' - recognize that this could absolutely be the vector that takes the man down, or even many of them. Imagine how many WH, Cabinet Members, family members could get investigated for this and under purvue of state investigators where the investigation can't get shut down.

bonsai_spool 1 hour ago|||
This was charged by DOJ not under a military tribunal
akudha 1 hour ago|||
When the history of this administration is written

I often think about how much we can trust history 20-30 years from now. It is hard to trust history from hundreds of years ago, either because it was written by victors or because there just isn't enough material in the first place. I suppose we have the opposite problem now (and in the future) - too much noise and junk, whole bunch of it generated by AI slop - where does one even start?

JohnTHaller 1 hour ago|||
For everyone saying this isn't some little guy... compared to the administration which is engaging in the same thing, it's a little guy designed to be a distraction.
busterarm 1 hour ago|||
Authority-wise, a MSG in the army isn't exactly a little guy either. That's quite a senior role. In their battalion they likely head either operations, intelligence or supply.

This isn't joe schlub making side bets here. This is a senior late-career enlisted in an extremely sensitive position violating all of their trust and authority to cash out big.

herewulf 1 hour ago||
That MSG works for a Captain or a Lieutenant. If said MSG is good, there might be a future of advising a commanding officer on uniforms and length of grass at increasingly higher echelons. The rank is not newsworthy.
RhysU 2 hours ago|||
Wilholt's essay is a nice one. But it amounts to defining the opposition in a way that's easy to tear apart followed by tearing it apart. It's a cute trick but isn't much of a basis for serious discussion.

Watch: Wilholt's essay consists of exactly and only one indefensible, rhetorical sleight of hand. Consequently, no one can honestly defend it. Attempts to do so are undeserving of serious scrutiny.

After tearing down a strawman, he claims high ground:

> The law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone; and it cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone.

But you'll get a fair bit of support for Wilholt's so-called anti-conservative principle from a fair number of prominent conservative thinkers.

zaptheimpaler 1 hour ago||
The modern US conservative party really does seem to believe only in that one principle and nothing else. They will pardon actual sex traffickers like Andrew Tate and worse as long as they're on their side. They will defend any action at all by Trump, no matter how vile or illegal or stupid or wrong. It's not a sleight of hand if its true.
RhysU 1 hour ago||
Go read a few months worth of the National Review.

Many prominent conservative thinkers are not particularly big fans of Trump. They like portions of his initiatives and policies but not him as a standard bearer, because he does dumb, ill-principled stuff at odds with conservatism.

Peggy Noonan of the WSJ can't write two sentences without letting you know how much she disdains Trump, e.g.

zaptheimpaler 1 hour ago||
I guess I should clarify it to the modern US conservative party. I know there are a few dissenters even there, but 95% of them vote the way he wants and of course we could have impeached Trump and many cabinet officials long ago if they voted that way. They unquestionably enable this administration. I think its fair to say they represent the conservatives broadly, certainly they are the people the nations conservative citizens elected and continue to support.
paulpauper 2 hours ago|||
I made a similar argument and was downvoted. Yeah, the well-connected pay a fine when caught. This guy's mistake was not knowing he did not belong to that club. He amounted to no more than a fall guy.
jongjong 1 hour ago|||
There seems to be a pattern that if someone who was not pre-selected by some elites ends up making their own money (I.e. real 'self-made') they are swiftly attacked by the system. On the other hand, look at Nancy Pelosi; she didn't get into any trouble.

Are people allowed to be self-made anymore?

For me personally, after years of planning and hard work, I once managed to secure myself about $40k of passive income from a blockchain in crypto; this lasted a few years but eventually the founders suspiciously abandoned the entire tech stack (for no reason) and switched to Ethereum; this destroyed the opportunity for me; literally lost that stream entirely. Now, recently, I was able to re-establish a passive income stream of about $10k per year from a non-crypto source; this is from an opportunity I took over 10 years ago... I'm worried about that being taken away somehow.

george916a 18 minutes ago||
Oh, and let’s not forget the politicians like Pelosi, the Clintons and many other top Democratic Party politicians, repeatedly engaged in insider trading of stocks, often times using classified information, for multi million dollars profits. Almost never investigated. Practically never convicted.
sigmar 1 hour ago||
Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page:

Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Government Information for Personal Gain

Count 2 - Theft of Nonpublic Government Information

Count 3 - Commodities Fraud

Count 4 - Wire Fraud

Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity

jcgrillo 48 minutes ago|
It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.
enoint 18 minutes ago||
If that happened, could they retroactively classify it?
AngryData 1 hour ago||
Perfectly fine for the rich and powerful, but don't you average citizen dare do anything like it! The US law and justice system is a complete joke.
paulddraper 1 hour ago|
[flagged]
Hnrobert42 1 hour ago|||
How do you know which accounts are theirs?
sirshmooey 1 hour ago||||
Predictable, wind-up doll response from the siloed information consumption crowd.
jawilson2 1 hour ago|||
Then they should be in jail. Just like Trump and everyone enabling fascism.

Have any other whatabout-its?

int32_64 1 hour ago||
It seems like it would be highly demoralizing to US soldiers that they are prosecuted for betting on the outcomes of the battles they are risking their lives for but those insider trading commanding them aren't.
herewulf 1 hour ago||
Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.
int32_64 20 minutes ago|||
There will be derivative contracts of prediction markets to predict if an insider is indicted for betting on a specific prediction.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if an insider in the prosecutor's office bet on that contract.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if a special prosecutor will prosecute the other prosecutor.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if an insider in the special prosecutor's office bet on the other contract.

(additional derivative markets will exist up to the divine wrath of god).

SparkyMcUnicorn 41 minutes ago|||
They should have kept an eye on the prediction markets.
enoint 15 minutes ago||
Or, your brigade’s master sergeant needs the invasion to hit on the 28th rather than Mar 1st.
mrtksn 1 hour ago||
Are prediction markets regulated? Is this about breaking the laws regarding prediction markets or is this about leaking classified information? I skimmed but not sure still.

Someone more cynical can say that this is about protecting Thiel’s investment(if people think it’s rigged may stop playing) or making sure that only big G makes money with classified information.

akudha 1 hour ago||
These two videos might be of some help

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A654vzQTGbQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4

garciasn 1 hour ago||
From the article:

unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

mrtksn 1 hour ago||
So what law is broken exactly? Will an engineer with classified information on F-35 use that for fixing his car be also prosecuted? I guess no, so is this about leaking the Maduro operation?

Insider trading and outcome manipulation seems to be the norm on unregulated markets anyway. Whats the crime?

mlazos 1 hour ago||
By the letter of the law the guy fixing his car should be prosecuted, but like nobody is going to know and it’s not going to happen. In this case it’s pretty obvious the law was broken.
jh00ker 2 hours ago||
How many people in congress made the exact same bet on the exact same information, and for them it's "legal?"
wmf 1 hour ago||
None, because Congress wasn't informed of the Maduro raid until afterwards?
janalsncm 58 minutes ago||
We have finally figured out the purpose of the War Powers Act.
cosmicgadget 1 hour ago|||
It is legal and until we vote for people who will outlaw it we only have ourselves to blame.
GolfPopper 49 minutes ago||
Easy to say, hard to do, when your two "choices" at the ballot box represent slightly different groups of wealthy donors.
cosmicgadget 28 minutes ago|||
Vote in primaries. Also wealthy donors probably care less about whether a candidate can self-enrich with insider trading.
XorNot 36 minutes ago|||
Ah enlightened centrism rears its head again. Remember folks: at all points both sides are exactly the same /s.
singingtoday 27 minutes ago||
If you guilt me into voting, I'll probably vote for somebody you don't like.

Isn't it better that I don't vote?

_carbyau_ 6 minutes ago||
No. It is better that you vote. For at the end of the day you can:

1. know you tried to express your wishes

2. know that the outcome is because people expressed their wishes

3. realise the balance between 1. and 2. whether the outcome is as you hoped, and especially if it is not as you hoped.

This is important because hanging back and saying "Well I didn't vote for them!" is by default not supporting democracy as your country views it.

snypher 2 hours ago||
“Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable”

Yeah right.

hettygreen 7 minutes ago||
Cha-Ching! I bet $2000 that this guy was going to get charged.
penguin_booze 21 minutes ago||
Coming up: US supreme court declares insider trading constitutinal.
gnabgib 2 hours ago||
CNN (9 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882645

ABCnews (5 points, a comment from you) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882789

justice.gov (1 point, you've duped here) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883034

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