Posted by koshyjohn 22 hours ago
Becoming dependent on a technology is to be expected. I'm pretty sure 95% of us are dependent on packaged meat and don't know how to hunt.
That's substantively different than going from assembly to C.
I remember some of my earlier issues with various languages. `Dim A, B as Int`, in VisualBasic one of them is an Int the other is a Variant, in REALbasic (now Xojo) they're both Int. `MyClass *foo = nil; [foo bar];` isn't an error in ObjC because sending a message to nil is a no-op.
Or how, back when I was a complete beginner, if I forgot a semicolon in Metrowerks, the compiler would tell me about errors on every line after (but not including!) the one where I forgot the semicolon.
"Docs say", "Compiler says", "StackOverflow says", "Wikipedia says"; either this tool is good enough or it isn't; it not being good enough means we're still paid to do the thing it can't do, that only stops when nobody needs to because it can do the thing. The overlap, when people lean on it before the paint is dry, is just a time for quick-and-dirty. LLMs are in the wet-paint/quick-and-dirty phase. You could get suff done by copy-pasting code you didn't understand from StackOverflow, but you couldn't build a career from that alone. LLMs are better than StackOverflow, but still not a full replacement for SWeng, not yet.
And every single major company becomes bureaucratic and political after 30+ years in the business when the original founders are long retired, and the Wall Street friendly beancounters take over, caring only about the quarterly reports.
'Lean agile' tech companies are by far the exception, not the rule.
Look at OpenAI and Anthropic, both fairly new companies that are excessively political already. This 'garage stage' of lacking politics is a myth, read old stories about Microsoft, when it was 15 people it was political.
No, you are.
You first asked: "When was tech not bureaucratic and political?"
To which I replied "in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's when they started in garages".
What did you fail to understand here?
>Look at OpenAI and Anthropic, both fairly new companies that are excessively political already.
Everything becomes political when you tell them they're worth trillions if they only play the right tune. Money brings out the worst in people. SW companies didn't make trillions decades ago.
What you actually wrote in the comment four hours ago:
>60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, basically before the Google and Meta found out ads and money printing run the world
Your lie just now:
>To which I replied "in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's when they started in garages".
---
>What did you fail to understand here?
Nothing because you never said it. Wild behavior.
You literally just quoted me saying before two comments above: "You are changing your argument by adding this: "when they started in a garage." and then pretend otherwise.
Now you're pretending I never said and acting like you didn't read it.
Are you unable to understand an argument made by adding the context of two sentence from two consecutive comments following up on each other(which you yourself quoted and said it changes the argument), or are you just a troll acting in bad faith pretending you can't understand just to score a cheap gotcha?
>Wild behavior.
Yes you have, which is why I'll stop replying to you now, to protect my sanity. Jesus Christ.
If all you do is point your LLM at your Jira tickets, then you are failing to be an engineer. I mean, if that's all you are doing, then who needs you? One of the most important things to learn is what the right questions to ask are and what the right decisions to make are when guiding the LLM, as well as the ability to judge the output it produces.
I mean, right now we're at the stage where any user can get AI to make you software to solve very specific things - almost no technical knowledge needed.
My prediction is that first will software engineers be rendered obsolete. After that, small businesses will disappear, as users can simply get those products/services directly via AI.
Then it became thousands.
Now models can handle and operate on code bases with hundreds of thousands LOC, even low MLOC.
So in just 3.5 years we've gone from LLMs being cute toys, to being powerful enough to actually replace junior engineers. Even if we hit a new AI winter tomorrow, the proverbial damage is already done.
BTW they need to make enough to finance reinvestment internally… so it’s a lot more than you think. When they raise the price firms will then have to do a deep dive analysis on what to do - for they cannot see operating expenses climb incrementally without seeing revenue and costs of operations go in a favourable direction.
It’s easy when prices are lower than they should be.
Your prediction is missing all this detail. So….
I have no choice but let claude explore them for me and return me its summarized understanding. As next step, only claude can apply the required cross repo fixes, not me.
I just don't have the time. Meanwhile my skills as classical programmer atrophy, while my experience with and trust in claude go up...