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Posted by Qem 2 days ago

Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense(paulkrugman.substack.com)
506 points | 326 commentspage 3
apexalpha 1 day ago|
>The Trump administration is making no real effort to crack down on whoever is trading using inside information, and these inside traders are operating with a complete sense of impunity, assured that they can get away with it.

Yeah that's because IT's HIM.

Jesus how much more proof do you people need that the Trumps themselves are looting the country.

le-mark 1 day ago||
The only stop gap we have is for the states to start investigating and prosecuting these cases. And they don’t, I can I only suppose there are issues of jurisdiction even if the opposing party controls the apparatus. Too bad the the Georgia DA Fawny Willis was so inept; that election stealing RICO case had teeth.
cosmicgadget 1 day ago||
At least here he is just looting counterparties. It's way better than selling off national parks and using tax dollars on no-bid contracts to gild the presidential tanning bed.
5o3lad 2 days ago||
The corruption is a welcome byproduct of Trump's role as a Reality TV host who has to keep the conflict going and Hormuz closed.

The fact that he is talking peace again now is just because he cannot attack before the meeting with Xi in mid May.

The real issue is US energy dominance and control of the sea routes. Which Krugman does not mention, because the effort is bipartisan and he probably likes it. The US literally has a National Energy Dominance Council:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook-rema...

It is designed to subjugate and increase EU and Asian dependencies on US exports. The EU committed to buying $750 billion in US energy exports. LNG terminals in Alaska are being approved to make Asia dependent on US energy.

This process is accelerated by the emerging forever conflict that will keep Hormuz closed. It won't be a full scale war, just pinpricks so that shipping companies don't dare to cross Hormuz.

Maybe China is able to pressure Iran in a way that the US can no longer pretend it has the right to intercept Iranian ships. But Russia is another factor:

The closure of Hormuz benefits both Russia and the US and the EU is too incompetent to negotiate Trump-style and threaten (it does not necessarily have to happen) to resume Russian imports. In an ideal world it would also block US vessels from entering the Baltic sea, because since the Greenland and now the overt Gulf energy threats the US is no longer an ally.

sailfast 2 days ago|
I think you’re giving Trump too much credit. If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out. There is no chess game here. It’s not even checkers. He is just trying to not have to admit he made a mistake - just with billions of dollars and lives on the line. Such sad.
brookst 1 day ago|||
This administration literally told congress that it has a right to bomb Iran again without congressional oversight specifically because there's a cease fire in place. I wish I was kidding. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o
pjc50 1 day ago||||
> If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out.

There's at least two other belligerents in this war who get a say, as well as a large number of other countries which count as victims (everyone from Lebanon to UAE). No US decision can stop Israel and Iran from fighting.

He has operational control of the armed forces. This has never been disputed recently; he can order whatever shots he wants. The armed forces funding is in one whole pot which is guaranteed even against a "shutdown". He also has total legal immunity for official acts.

bcjdjsndon 1 day ago||||
> If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal.

Whos gona prosecute america? Germans ar still waiting for somebody to go to jail for Dresden, and rightly so

chneu 1 day ago||||
He will just say it's a different operation. That's what they've been doing and it's working. Republicans have no desire to stop Trump. Democrats don't care either cuz they want this power once they're elected.
mekdoonggi 1 day ago||
It's worse than having no desire to stop him. Republicans want to compete to bow down to Trump like a gaggle of serfs. It is a debasement of human dignity to watch them grovel.
deepsun 1 day ago|||
No mistakes, public largely forgot about Epstein files with the Iran war.
jmyeet 1 day ago||
This topic keeps coming up so I'll summarize some points I've alrady made [1].

1. The size of this market manipulation can be measured by the gap between spot or physical oil prices (which generally aren't public) and the future or paper price [2]. Historically these have tracked each other so close it was a non-issue. Now it's a huge issue;

2. Part of the gap can be attributed to the financial markets being in denial [3] and the market itself being in extreme backwardation. That simply means the spot price is significantly higher than the future price. It indiciates some sort of market dysfunction (or delusion). We saw this in the silver market last year.

All credit for this wanton insider trading goes back to the Supreme Court inventing presidential immunity out of thin air [4][5] and a Congress that has completely abdicated any kind of constitutional responsibility.

You might think there might be some kind of criminal prosecution or at least investigation by government agencies of the players involved. Well, sycophants and crackpots have put in charge of those agencies (eg Michael Selig of the CFTC [6]).

And if that fails, just buy a pardon [7].

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47955623

[2]: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-interpret-wartime-oil-pric...

[3]: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Reality-Finall...

[4]: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/07/supreme-co...

[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States

[6]: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/michael-selig-predi...

[7]: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/05/04/donald-trumps-...

Michael666 1 day ago||
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black_13 2 days ago||
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exabrial 1 day ago||
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charles_f 1 day ago||
What is your point there? That designated opponent made the same thing so this is acceptable or should be overlooked?

Whataboutism is not useful.

bigtex88 1 day ago||
Stfu with this idiotic nonsense, thanks.
trentnix 1 day ago||
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doncoyote 1 day ago||
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anthonybsd 1 day ago|
MAGA bot farm intensifies. How delightfully curious :)
Theodores 2 days ago||
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SkipperCat 2 days ago||
The Rothschilds getting news faster because they build an information network is not inside trading. Inside trading is when you have a legal and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation and are not abiding by those rules.
leonidasrup 2 days ago|||
Rothschilds getting news faster, high-frequency trading of the old days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

Supplying news as fast as possibles is also the business model of Thomson Reuters.

https://www.thetradenews.com/thomson-reuters-algo-news-feed-...

gruez 2 days ago|||
>and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation

No they don't. They might have duties not to leak classified information, but not fiduciary duty.

selectodude 2 days ago|||
Look, just come out and say you’re okay with them doing what they’re doing. Stop making arguments that are just verifiably untrue.

> Amends the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to declare that such Members and employees owe a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence to Congress, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens with respect to material, nonpublic information derived from their positions as Members or congressional employees or gained from performance of the individual's official responsibilities.

(Sec. 5) Amends the Commodity Exchange Act to apply to Members and congressional employees, or to judicial officers or employees its prohibitions against certain transactions, involving the purchase or sale of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery, or any swap.

Extends the meaning of "covered government person" (currently restricted to Members of Congress and congressional employees) to include the President, Vice President, an employee of the U.S. Postal Service or the Postal Regulatory Commission, or any other executive branch employee.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/senate-bill/203...

leonidasrup 2 days ago|||
"Members of Congress outperformed the S&P 500—sometimes by huge amounts"

https://fortune.com/2024/01/03/members-of-congress-profit-fr...

"Congressional Stock Trading: The Law, the Conflicts, and the Push for a Ban"

https://govfacts.org/accountability-ethics/ethics-conflicts-...

"The 2 ETFs That Track Congressional Stock Trades"

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/2-etfs-that-track-congress...

The insider trading on oil futures is just on much bigger scale.

gizajob 2 days ago|||
It’s also funny when you see their performance charted against Warren Buffet’s. Looks like Warren is a rank amateur who knows very little about the markets and buying companies for the right price compared to the likes of Nancy who must be a supreme multitasker and stock picker.

People have been strung up for less than what counts as business as usual in contemporary, rotten to the core, American business & politics.

smallmancontrov 2 days ago||
> supreme multitasker and stock picker

Not really. Paul Pelosi was a tech investor. If you were heavily concentrated in META, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, etc you should have crushed the S&P and Warren Buffet too.

Famously, Warren Buffet's recent outperformance mostly came from AAPL, which was <1% of his positioning when he put it on. Imagine if it had been several percent! Such were the delights of many tech investors over the last 20 years or so.

gizajob 1 day ago||
I was picking on her but there are dozens of others who outperform Warren by multiples. And ok he’s pretty conservative but even so this chart is pretty damning.

https://watcher.guru/news/congress-stock-trades-outscores-bu...

selectodude 2 days ago|||
I’m happy to report I am able to hold both violations of the law and ethics rules in similar contempt.
gruez 2 days ago|||
>Look, just come out and say you’re okay with them doing what they’re doing

Don't put words in my mouth. Moreover I'm not sure how you can come to the conclusion that I'm "re okay with them doing what they’re doing", when I specifically acknowledged they have a duty not to leak classified intel.

>Members and employees owe a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence to Congress, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens with respect to material

That's not "fiduciary duty". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiduciary#Relationships

selectodude 2 days ago|||
I’m not entirely sure if you understand what fiduciary duty actually means if you read federal ethics laws and don’t make the connection. Just because you can’t control+f “fiduciary duty” doesn’t mean the concept isn’t identical. Hell, there’s literally a law that bans insider trading futures on unknown information. Not “kind of like it”, literally named verbatim.

And I’m not putting words in your mouth, I’m just calling out your revealed preferences.

JackFr 2 days ago||
You're simply not using the word 'fiduciary' correctly. You seem to have expanded it to mean any sort of legal or ethical obligation with respect to markets, and that's not what it means.
throwaway173738 2 days ago|||
That reads markedly like contracts I’ve seen which define the basis of an individual’s fiduciary duty in consideration of their access to that sensitive information.
arborescence 2 days ago|||
They do not have a fiduciary duty that is enforceable in a court of law or equity. But the trusteeship model of representative government is basically how we've conceived of the duties of elected officials in liberal democratic republics since John Locke. As a normative matter, we feel that a public official who benefits their private interests at the expense of the public trust has violated their duties to the public. That just is what a fiduciary relationship looks like.
trollbridge 2 days ago||
We’ve also decided the proper way to deal with this elections due to the obvious “who will guard the guards themselves?” problems of trying to enforce this against members of Congress or the President.
pjc50 2 days ago|||
> Therefore, why not assume every trade is insider dealing, unless proven otherwise?

This kills the crab.

(investors are driven out of markets when it is obvious that they are being cheated)

> The truth is that any empire needs to pick off rivals and rob them, in order to keep the empire going.

This also kills the crab. (And most of us along the way: we're already in a limited kind of world war, the sort of thing that has a history of escalating)

Who else here is old enough to remember when Martha Stewart got jailed for insider trading?

amalcon 2 days ago|||
Sending a letter containing public information to a place that hasn't heard yet is not insider trading, even if you own the post office. Algorithmic trading firms are doing the modern equivalent of this at all times to arbitrage the NYC/LON/HK exchanges.

The classic example is that sitting outside a factory and counting trucks does not result in insider information, but driving the trucks does. Even though it is the same information.

petesergeant 2 days ago|||
> There will always be opportunities for insider trading, and there always have been. The Rothschilds could get news across Europe quicker than the kings could, so they made vast fortunes.

That is not an example of insider trading

mentalgear 2 days ago||
funny aside: rothshields were mentioned more than trump in the epstein files, yet no outlet even touched that fact..
tekla 2 days ago||
Of course this is a complete lie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_of_Jeffrey_Epstein...

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/the-rothschild-dynasty-s...

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/epstein-files-show-...

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/02/05/j...

pzo 2 days ago|||
the question is if those links and thumbnail were back then on the front page / timeline. Because otherwise how you supposed to know about the news if you have to google it first.
filoeleven 2 days ago||
Lookit them goalposts retreating!
mentalgear 1 day ago|||
While it may be an exaggeration, it isn’t a lie: Quantitatively, Trump receives far more coverage in the press than the Rothschilds - who were rarely mentioned at least in the mainstream press.

However, if your "lie" accusation concerns their frequency in the Epstein files, the data is easy to verify. A search on the JMail database shows 6,307 hits for "Trump" compared to 7,845 for "Rothschild."

[0] https://jmail.world/

tekla 1 day ago||
Lookit them goalposts retreating!
api 2 days ago|
I remember one take I had in 2024 after the election.

We're all familiar with some of the "defund the police" experiments that went too far in places like Portland and San Francisco and resulted in things like epidemics of casual shoplifting.

Well, what we just did is basically the white collar crime equivalent. We now have a wide open free for all for all forms of white collar crime. You can just insider trade, launder money, commit investment fraud, anything you want, the way you saw random people just walking into CVS drug stores years ago in SF and grabbing stuff and walking out.

But as usual when someone steals $100 worth of stuff on the street that's a national crisis and those people are scum, but when people steal billions that's fine cause they're wearing suits.

stevenwoo 1 day ago||
The whole retail theft epidemic (and the ensuing Union Pacific cargo theft ) was a corporate scam perpetrated by local news and law enforcement PR departments.
jnwatson 1 day ago|||
It wasn't at all. There's still a serious problem with shoplifting. Wal-mart would not be removing self-checkout if this were just a PR campaign.

At my local CVS, they just started locking up the bulk candy. You don't take the the sales hit and the expense of those locking cabinets unless you have a real shrinkage problem.

mrguyorama 1 day ago||
>Wal-mart would not be removing self-checkout if this were just a PR campaign

They absolutely would.

Shrink has not gone up

The National Retail Federation, which publishes those numbers yearly, has stopped publishing those numbers to hide that fact.

There are real shoplifting problems but they are extremely local. Your local police department needs to stand up and do their fucking jobs to identify and take down the organized crime perpetuating it.

snovv_crash 1 day ago||||
I heard it was organised crime loading up on stuff it could sell at informal locations.
richwater 1 day ago|||
This is willful (intentional) ignorance.
tardedmeme 1 day ago|||
No, it really was a hoax perpetuated by companies that want to sell security services to retail chains and other groups that want more police funding. https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2024/01/the-shoplifting-...

Like how Cloudflare wants you to think every unprotected website gets DDoSed.

stevenwoo 14 hours ago|||
Have you ever read any investigative journalism about those crime stories? Or about local crime news via papers and television? Those two news sources are starved for news stories and law enforcement agencies have well funded PR arms (one should wonder why this is) and their associated affiliated unions/associations are quite eager to become the primary(only sometimes) sources for news (one should wonder why this is true for stories even from supposedly neutral reporting like AP and NPR). Theft has existed since there has been trading - we see plenty of examples of this with nesting/courting animals with rocks and sticks, but this "crime wave" whenever the USA status quo of law enforcement/prison industrial complex is threatened or new prisons/private prisons need to be justified is blatantly obvious.
mschuster91 2 days ago||
> You can just insider trade, launder money, commit investment fraud, anything you want, the way you saw random people just walking into CVS drug stores years ago in SF and grabbing stuff and walking out.

Something I'd disagree with is... enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores. Fix widespread poverty, get people out of homelessness, help people legitimately get off of drugs, help them get jobs even when they have convictions on the book, and then they won't need to become members of what is, essentially, small and hyperlocal crime networks.

In contrast, insider traders and billion-scale fraudsters - they do not have the need for survival pushing them to do crime. It is just pure unchecked greed that drives them.

trollbridge 2 days ago|||
It’s a myth that petty shoplifting is something done by poor people. The people doing it are usually part of organised crime (that is not “hyperlocal”) and generally are doing better than actual poor people.

The idea poor people are somehow criminal is a myth that needs to be eradicated.

danans 1 day ago||
> t’s a myth that petty shoplifting is something done by poor people. The people doing it are usually part of organised crime (that is not “hyperlocal”) and generally are doing better than actual poor people

There is not such a strong distinction. Organized crime groups often use poor people who have few alternatives as the pawns of their theft and fencing operations. People with other better options don't usually take up petty crime as a vocation.

trollbridge 1 day ago||
I would say that many people with better options take up sophisticated crime as a vocation. Obviously poor and rich people choose vocations a little differently.

There is not overall any sign that poor people, as a whole, have increased criminality; other factors like culture are far stronger.

Punishing crime and preventing it (like shoplifting) helps poor people, too. Poor people do not benefit from stores closing, or having the stores closest to them have everything locked up.

danans 1 day ago||
> There is not overall any sign that poor people, as a whole, have increased criminality; other factors like culture are far stronger.

"Criminality" is too broad a characterization. It covers both assault and petty theft. I never said the poor are more criminal as a group than any other group.

People in poverty are more likely to commit petty theft out of need. Similarly, people who are very wealthy are more likely to commit large scale tax evasion out of greed. Both are financial crimes, but they are not committed equally by both groups.

> Punishing crime and preventing it (like shoplifting) helps poor people, too.

Yes, and so does giving people in poverty a step up out of life circumstances that make them more likely to commit petty crimes (like shoplifting).

Similarly, punishing large scale financial crimes by the wealthy (something that has basically stopped of late) would benefit everyone, from the poor to the wealthy. In fact, punishment may be the only disincentive for financial crimes by the wealthy, since they don't want for anything else.

triceratops 1 day ago||||
> enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores

Yes and no. Enforcement deters career criminals by increasing the cost of doing business. Improving society means fewer honest people have to turn to crime.

> insider traders and billion-scale fraudsters - they do not have the need for survival pushing them to do crime. It is just pure unchecked greed that drives them

Right, so career criminals. See above.

mschuster91 1 day ago||
My point is, increasing enforcement will not help against petty crime, because you gotta feed yourself somehow. The people on the lowest rungs of society dealing crack cocaine or acting as the front men for fencing rings - they got nothing to lose. In fact there's more than enough reports of people letting themselves get caught at some petty crime before winter hits so they got a few months in jail where they're at least fed and have a roof over their head.

But it can and will massively help against large scale white collar crime. When you got dozens of millions of dollars in wealth, now you have the means to make more out of it (honest or not), the incentive to make more out of it - and also, a lot to lose, should they get caught.

triceratops 1 day ago||
> increasing enforcement will not help against petty crime

I disagree. Career criminals also do petty crime.

sjsdaiuasgdia 1 day ago|||
> It is just pure unchecked greed that drives them

I'm a fan of an idea I ran across recently. Instead of calling Musk, Bezos, Zuck, Ellison, etc the richest people in the world, we should call them the greediest.

"Greediest man in the world Elon Musk promises robotaxis" hits different than the "Richest man" version

Don't say "Billionaire Jeff Bezos does <thing>", say "Champion of Greed Jeff Bezos..."

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