I dove into the prediction markets rabbit hole a number of years back. And I’ve personally seen witnessed scenarios where the wisdom of crowds seems to really work. What I have not really—including in this piece—read is rigorous theory of what makes it effective or not. There are hints here and in the Wisdom of Crowds book but I’ve never read a really comprehensive theory.

Most people don't know, that "prediction markets" are acutally based on an idea by DARPA in 2002, after 9/11/2001.

Good source.

The only complain I have ( not really directed at the article, but.. ) is to put all these theories and somewhat private experiments into the same room as pure gambling schemes turbocharged by "the algorithm" and political corruption.

While far from Heaven's gates, some guy trying to predict the price of corn next year is not in the same plane as those who had the "very original" idea every guy in his early 20s had at some point but never went further because he read some articles about "the law". Like it or not, the laws or the remnants of it were put in place due to the obvious degenerate attitudes and it's consequences gambling was always known for.

And no, it's not a "market", even Uber appears to have some usefulness to offset all the lying, corruption and criminality they had to do in order to become what they are. These ones don't even take you places other than gambler addiction.

End of run, sorry.

Did I just read a claude ad?

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