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Posted by cdrnsf 1 day ago

California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply(kmph.com)
99 points | 214 commentspage 2
brightball 1 day ago|
Didn't California shut down 2 high capacity refineries in the last couple of years?
cardiffspaceman 1 day ago|
The capitalists who own them shut them down.
jeffbee 1 day ago||
But this guy is fixated on the fact that 17% of the refineries were closed in a state where gas sales fell 17%.
brightball 1 day ago||
It’s remarkably appropriate in a article where we are talking about a shortage…
jeffbee 1 day ago||
It's a shortage of refinery inputs, not refinery capacity.
silexia 1 day ago||
So dumb that California, with a massive wealth of oil underground, imports oil from the opposite side of the planet due to severely misguided environmental regulations.
__loam 1 day ago||
People will blame climate policy on this but this is evidence that we've failed to move off our fossil fuel dependency.
daedrdev 1 day ago||
Texas is better at this because they don't restrict solar with “enviromental” nimby lawsuits.
dylan604 1 day ago||
Nor have restrictions on refining oil or require a special blend of gasoline. It does seem strange to call out Texas as doing something right environmentally.
throwforfeds 1 day ago|||
We've had decades to do something about it, but if Trump deciding to step into a completely unnecessary war and blundering the entire thing is what makes everyone wake up then I guess that's a silver lining.
dylan604 1 day ago||
4D chess baby. He's a genius. All of his oil investing friends think so.
tinyplanets 1 day ago||
He's the best, the best at everything. Including tanking the world economy...
com2kid 1 day ago||
It is funny that propaganda has somehow convinced conservatives, people who used to idealize self reliance and independence from government dependencies, to move away from solar and EVs.

A EV and a home solar setup with a large battery bank, is the ultimate in self reliance.

I remember even 10 years ago you'd see the occasional right leaning homesteader talking about the benefits of being off grid with a solar setup.

Now days removing our dependencies on foreign powers is somehow a liberal conspiracy. O_o

hamdingers 1 day ago|||
A bicycle and moderate fitness is the ultimate in self-reliance but you never heard them promoting that either.
com2kid 1 day ago||
Bicycle doesn't carry a family of 4, or carry loads of dirt or pick up lumber or tow a trailer.

Also my e-bike needs more maintenance than my EV. Go figure.

mylifeandtimes 1 day ago|||
carry a family of 4 where? if you rely on that other location exisiting, you are not self-reliant.

tow a trailer where? see above.

Pick up a load of dirt or lumber-- how did those materials get to the pick-up point?

And the road you are driving on, where did it come from?

traderj0e 1 day ago||
Being conservative doesn't mean I don't want roads or businesses to exist.
dylan604 1 day ago||||
I was very pleasantly surprised at how much my single cargo e-bike can handle. It is big, nearly the size of a tandem bike, but it served me well for 5 years of not having a car.

Curious about your maintenance needs. I have a guy that comes out once a year for service and tunes it up for me. After 3 years, I replaced the chain. I've upgraded to hydraulic brakes by the same guy. Other than that, it's been smooth riding. Or are you saying your EV needs so little maintenance that even the low maintenance on a bike seem high?

com2kid 1 day ago||
I haven't had to do any work on my EV in the 2 years I've had it.

I'm due for a cabin air filter change in another couple years.

So yes the bike is costing me more in maintenance! It is hard to compete with 0.

dylan604 1 day ago|||
Does the eBike have a monthly payment plus a required insurance policy? The EV still costs way more to own which is the most important factor
com2kid 1 day ago||
Definitely, the car costs more.

But speaking purely in terms of maintenance, costs are nearly 0.

Assuming I don't but a pot hole, the tires will last me 7-8 years at minimum (I drive a bit under 3000 miles a year).

Brakes are barely used with an EV.

Insurance + tabs is my largest cost.

I bought my EV cash a few years back when prices were super low thanks to hertz offloading their fleet.

hamdingers 1 day ago|||
Maintenance should be amortized. The first time you do brakes and tires it will cost more than 5+ years of ebike maintenance. It adds nothing to the conversation to pretend otherwise.
olyjohn 1 day ago||||
It does carry a family of 4 in a lot of places. I've seen entire clothing stores set up on bicycles in places like Thailand.
BobaFloutist 1 day ago||||
>carry a family of 4

Why are you carrying them? They should be self-reliant too.

xboxnolifes 1 day ago|||
2 bicycles can.
theultdev 1 day ago|||
I'm conservative and own an EV and ICE truck. I know many conservatives with Tesla's. I have solar and a propane generator as backups.

I think the propaganda would be whatever said we're all against it, that's untrue. We just want both, no gas bans.

com2kid 1 day ago||
Conservative bots are out strong in Pacific NW forums slop posting against new "green energy" energy projects. Blaming the (not yet built!) green energy projects for upcoming rate increases.

Nevermind that solar is why Texas has such cheap electricity prices.

> no gas bans.

I'm all for the free market.

Price into gas the expected increase in healthcare costs due to air and ground water pollution. Stop subsidizing it for non-critical uses.

Same for extra tire dust from EVs (that shit is toxic AF).

Right now I see astroturfing that EVs are why our electricity infrastructure is overloaded (rather than blaming 50 years of neglect), or that the cars burst into flame (no more than other cars and newer battery tech not any more).

Subsidizing EVs is interesting because it is obvious that EVs are the future (battery tech gets ~6% better year over year, compounding, ICE designs haven't seen improvements in decades), but recent removal of government support caused American car companies to basically give up on anything except the domestic car market, which spells their long term doom (which the Ford CEO has pretty much come out and admitted.)

traderj0e 1 day ago||
There's already like 90c of gasoline tax in California and some of the highest auto registration fees, and that's on top of other rules that make it more expensive.
BobaFloutist 1 day ago||
The gasoline and registration taxes pay for (most of the cost of) the roads. Change them all to toll roads and we can get rid of those taxes.
traderj0e 1 day ago||
Somehow other states don't need to make them all toll roads, and their roads are better
htx80nerd 1 day ago||
Governments have gotten in the bad habit of acting like nothing will ever go wrong. Living paycheck-to-paycheck, so to speak. Cali not the only one suffering this fate. It doesnt matter if it's Trump's fault or not. Lets just say it is. Bad things happen. You have to be ready.
alpha_squared 1 day ago||
> Bad things happen. You have to be ready.

You're not wrong, but also how "ready" is "ready enough"? What about things the US doesn't generally have access to? Rare earth minerals? Helium? Cobalt? Coffee?

It also costs money to build the infra for storage and more money to maintain. There's always a trade-off. I think governments have done an acceptable job of being ready, but they are predicated on the assumption that the global order that the developed world has largely enjoyed for several decades remains largely intact.

It's a bad assumption in hindsight because some folks chose to go over a cliff over fixing deep-seated problems. You can't really control for chaos.

htx80nerd 21 hours ago|||
>but also how "ready" is "ready enough"?

good question but too often what we find is "not ready at all".

unethical_ban 1 day ago|||
Moving to green and nuclear energy, pressing hard to upgrade the national grid would be the obvious things to reduce our short-term dependence on fossil fuels.

Energy independence is not a pipe dream, and it isn't ever going to be 100%. We should be working toward it.

We may be somewhat dependent on China or other sources for solar panels, for example, but once we have the product, it has a multi-decade lifetime compared to an instantly-consumed fuel.

Even if you're a fossil fuel fanatic, one should be advocating for more of our refineries to be tooled for processing our own crude oil. But that isn't as profitable in the short term, so we don't do it.

P.S. politically, we've seen our system does not have the capacity to deal with a malicious executive taking total control of the government. We need a complete rebuild of our legislative and executive branches.

tialaramex 1 day ago|||
Surely an example of being ready would be to electrify everything?
vkou 1 day ago|||
The rest of the developed world is banning ICE car sales, meanwhile the US is scrapping its wind farms, because doing it trolls the left.
mikeyouse 1 day ago||
Not just scrapping them - literally paying foreign companies billions of dollars to not build wind farms. Illegally as well, there’s absolutely no authority for these payments to happen outside of Congress.
htx80nerd 21 hours ago|||
not good when the power goes out / grid goes down which has happened repeatedly in the past 40 yrs
AtlasBarfed 1 day ago|||
We were fully warned of this with the supply chain disruption of covid.

Global supply chain has become dangerously dependent upon a stable geopolitical environment that has been unnaturally provided by the United States for the last near 100 years in post world war II.

This unipolar naval supremacy is not a normal situation. One of the things that triggered world war I was an escalating arms race in battleships between Germany and Great Britain.

I would recommend the United States practically every country, Force its automobile manufacturers to go very hardcore down the plugin hybrid electric vehicle, which will maximize the battery supply to electrify the largest amount of daily consumer transportation.

I would say you should impose a minimum of 40 to 50 mi for an all-electric range, The 20 mile range which is degraded to really about 12 now is not sufficient in my four phev.

Hybrids also weighs far less gasoline and idling and low torque low RPM situations like stop and go and sitting in traffic jams, by utilizing gener of breaking, using the electric motor for the 0-25 acceleration that ICE engines are incredibly inefficient at.

It's my opinion that the equipment and manufacturing switchover should be much less of an imposition on car manufacturers than the full EV switchover. Consumers do not have such a shocking switch to driving habits because a phev just functions like a normal ICE car if the battery drains, it solves long-range transportation issues and concerns with EVs.

Most car manufacturers know how to make turbocharged high efficiency compact engines, most major manufacturers I believe know how to use Atkinson cycle with variable valve timing combined with a hybrid drivetrain to further boost gas efficiency

Teever 1 day ago||
[flagged]
empyrrhicist 1 day ago|||
> The President isn't to blame.

I mean, there's a lot of blame to go around, but tearing up a working deal that gave us unprecedented, multilateral access to Iran's nuclear facilities, and then later jumping into a war of choice with no clear objectives and seemingly being surprised by the most obvious geopoltical realities that people with any shred of a clue have been talking about for DECADES would seem to have at least something to do with the current mess.

In my book, the silver lining is that this might finally push the world to move away from fossil fuels in a meaningful way.

Teever 1 day ago||
Yeah but he wouldn't have been in the position to do any of that if the people who funded his campaign like the Adelsons, Kushners, Musk, Linda McMahon, Lutnick and so forth didn't contribute millions to his campaign and leverage whatever other resources they have to promote him.

And they in turn couldn't do any of that if the teams of professionals from lawyers, accountants to engineers didn't help them acquire and use those resources.

Just like violent crime is overwhelmingly perpetuated by a handful of repeat offenders we see the same pattern in white collar crime. A handful of white collar criminals cause damage to American society that cascades through the world resulting in food and fuel shortages that we're talking about.

I get that it's really hard but you have to view this dispassionately and from a systems thinking perspective. The professionals and oligarchs are responsible for the mad king scenario that we're all living through right now. They're responsible for the social decay that affects us daily.

And it's just going to keep getting worse and worse once the mad king eventually goes the way all mad kings do.

empyrrhicist 1 day ago||
I don't disagree with that, but it seems kind of like a acute cause/proximate cause sort of distinction to me.

That, and I don't forgive the general populace either.

__loam 1 day ago||||
He started the war!
CPLX 1 day ago|||
[flagged]
vablings 1 day ago|||
Correct, he is the symptom of the problem created by himself.

The Iran nuclear deal rode off the back of Stuxnet and concessions were easier with that damage. The recent strikes with the B2 were largely ineffectual so well done.

Sabinus 1 day ago|||
Democrat presidents never get this level of charity.
baggy_trough 1 day ago||
[flagged]
JumpCrisscross 1 day ago||
> California leaders have done everything they possibly can to chase refiners out of state

The refiners are running out of crude. Having more refiners wouldn’t solve the problem.

linksnapzz 1 day ago|||
There's plenty of crude oil in CA. Certainly enough for California's needs, in fact.
JumpCrisscross 1 day ago|||
> There's plenty of crude oil in CA. Certainly enough for California's needs

California has 1.7 billion barrels of proven reserves [1] and imports 373 million barrels a year [2]. That's 5 years of imports in the ground. (At current rates, California depletes its proven reserves in 2040.)

[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=R...

[2] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...

john_strinlai 1 day ago|||
that is not my understanding or what is implied in the article. where would i go to find this fact?
Barbing 1 day ago|||
Also that poster forgot LA smog of yore!
__loam 1 day ago|||
This is a good reason to move our infrastructure further off of being dependent on a highly volatile region actually.
smlacy 1 day ago||
How about just ditching this disgusting use of a finite resource and switch to an infinitely abundant resource?
conradev 1 day ago||
There’s this crazy thing that happens where you need to use carbon to decarbonize.

Solar panels are made in factories where energy and inputs are cheaper and then shipped on diesel cargo ships to the rest of the world.

Our cars run on gas, so we need new electric ones, but the ships and car carriers are themselves… not electric yet.

Because energy is more expensive, everything is more expensive, including electrification.

iqihs 1 day ago|
the entire economy of California being dependent on how Iran is feeling on a given day is crazy work
neaden 1 day ago||
Who do you think started the current war?
traderj0e 1 day ago|||
This is oversimplifying war. Whoever struck first isn't necessarily the one who created the conflict.
za3faran 1 day ago|||
In this case it is.
traderj0e 1 day ago||
I don't know, can see this either way. Iran's leadership has been stating for decades that they want to destroy Israel. They've been funding militias who launch rockets at Israel, during times when Israel wasn't threatening Iran's existence in any way. They were launching rockets just before this war started. But US pulled out of nuclear deal and killed Iranian leaders during first Trump administration, and has been meddling with Iran for decades.

All I'll say for sure is the US shouldn't be involved, and shouldn't have taken such a one-sided approach during Israel's founding. None of this benefits us, we simply have traitors in our government.

za3faran 1 day ago||
The israeli occupation has been killing, raping, and pillaging Palestinians for over 75 years. The greater israel project is on full display now.
whatthesmack 1 day ago|||
Iran did, by killing over 1000 Americans over the last 47 years.
traderj0e 1 day ago||
So what, how many Iranians did the US kill?
edmundsauto 1 day ago|||
Isn’t it more dependent on how Trump is feeling? That makes it much more depressing for the leader of the country to be messing with our largest economy like this.
traderj0e 1 day ago||
I began assuming long ago that Trump is just manipulating markets. Like my finances are managed under that assumption.
Sabinus 1 day ago||
He was the anti corruption and anti war President and look what we got instead.
ndsipa_pomu 1 day ago||
When someone is known for spouting rubbish and constantly lying, then it doesn't make sense to be surprised when they don't adhere to their "promises".
hvb2 1 day ago|||
The US is an exporter of oil, so no US state will run out.

However, you do pay the market price.

doug_durham 1 day ago|||
Yes it is a net exporter of oil, but not oil for gasoline. The use is a net importer of oil used for gasoline. That's because oil companies have chosen to not make the investments needed to refine domestic oil. We have to import for that.
repelsteeltje 1 day ago||||
The article mentions that California no longer is. Due to closures it is now a net importer of oil.
hvb2 1 day ago||
Sure, I'm trying to say that the US is not dependent on oil from the middle east, it produces a lot by itself
daedrdev 1 day ago||||
CA mandates its own blend which it is dependent on imports for
greenavocado 1 day ago|||
California is very poorly connected to the rest of the country in terms of pipelines https://www.bts.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/2021-03/U.S.%20P...
smlacy 1 day ago||
Yeah especially given that California is a leader in renewable energy sources.
hvb2 1 day ago|||
Renewables is for electricity. Oil is used for a lot of things that electricity can't replace, or not yet
jeffbee 1 day ago||
Much of what fossil fuels are used for is to refine fossil fuels, a use that we don't need to entirely replace.
bdcravens 1 day ago|||
Yes, but even the renewables market is dependent on petroleum-based transport and infrastructure.
triceratops 1 day ago||
But the more renewables get used the less true that is.
bdcravens 1 day ago||
Possibly, or more infrastructure is needed to support the growing demand for renewables, and the equipment is often trucked around using standard freight (large trucks or airplanes), concrete trucks to pour slabs, etc.
triceratops 1 day ago||
Electric trucks are rapidly becoming a thing. And even if not, more trucks delivering equipment for renewables get balanced out by more EVs.

Not to mention natural gas and oil will always need to be shipped around. Whereas when you have enough renewables and a grid that can supply enough electricity, shipping panels and batteries drops by a lot.

bdcravens 1 day ago||
Yes, and I look forward to when electric freight is a thing, but I do think it's an overstatement to say they are "rapidly becoming a thing". Articles about electric trucks among the HN crowd make it feel that way, but those are tests that don't really reflect what's happening in the market. (Most of the available data puts the overall percentage of freight moved by renewables at less than 0.1%). I suspect we're 10-20 years away from a time when a majority of DC chargers, solar panels, or wind turbines are transported using something other than gasoline or diesel.

Don't get me wrong, I'm quite dogmatic about renewables (we have 2 EVs, pay more for various renewable options, aggressively recycle, avoid single-use plastics, etc). I'm just pragmatic in my outlook.