Posted by akrylov 1 day ago
Correct. "Revenue" is the wrong scorecard when they're selling 20$ bills for 15$. I too can make a bajillion dollars in revenue with that strategy.
Show me a company not speed running the uber/doordash playbook and we can talk.
It's like the USA Librem 5 vs PinePhone. About the same HW for $1600 vs $150.
Sure will not pay 10x for "US" thing just because it's a US thing.
Cultivating an ecosysyem of strong capital protections, wealth creation through extraction, and tax advantages for AI finance is what we should be looking for. Commercialzation may be a step towards that, but isn't the destination. We have to create a system where those with money can multiply it, not simple add to it.
Whatever derivative structures and equity and options need to exist will be easily created.
I don’t think we need any additional motivation or incentives to cultivate this for AI. We need to keep some in the tank to handle the fallout.
As a more personal aside: the US would do well to put up some sensible barriers to outrageous financialization and reduce moral contagion risk. Otherwise all these folks trying to multiply their money end up leaving the bag with the folks that don’t have it in the first place - and then the folks with money end up, uh… well, it won’t end well.
Does any of the US companies earn money on LLMs? No, they bleed money. Github Copilot is switching to token based pricing, which will be costlier than hiring juniors.
Anthropic also is switching enterprises to token based pricing from their subscription one.
From the big three only Codex is still in somekind of subscription pricing, but they'll shift eventually (usage limits are a kind of that, but they have them less stricter than Claude ones)
There is one winner in this race - China. Trump with his agendas and wars makes it even more likely that China will lead this new market.
Inference? Yes.
Infrastructure build and training? Not yet.
Sorry, nobody's winning that AI race.
That doesn't count as winning at all.