Its worse than that - all AI features will get broken down into even finer slices and you will have to pay for everything based on the finest level of slice they can make and still make money.

the piece focuses on closed frontier models but skips that Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek and Owen run reliably 6 to 9 months behind. For most countries and most use cases, that's what people actually run, and it's not gated by US policy. The "frontier haves vs have-nots" divide is try for the top 5% of capabilities. The other 95% of the economy will run on open weights regardless of what Mythos rollout policy looks like.

All the downsides of your cliched agi nightmares but with the “intelligence” of your bog standard national security functionary

DeepSeek is not a distillation of Claude or ChatGPT - stating this is just idiotic politics at this point.

The Chinese labs have reached "escape velocity" long ago - they will continue development regardless of API access to US models or the willingness of US labs to share their research.

I hope regular people will stop using "national security" and "national interests" as euphemisms and framing, and will call these things a psychopathic fight for power.

Assuming that some humans are worse than others because of their flag picture and that they deserve less access to resources is barbarism. There is no security in limiting access to NSA-style entities; it's an absolute insecurity for everyone but them throughout the whole world. How is that in anyone's "interests"?

We see every day now how suspicious bugs that look exactly like backdoors (i.e., Microsoft BitLocker) get exposed. That's in humanity's interests (and those of particular nations as a subset) — not being subjugated by small rings of professional outlaws. We need these instruments to defend people, everywhere. We don't need to give a leverage to any state psycho. Let's make everyone of them weaker.

> margins shrink and become razor-thin

You need to understand that these models are provided by the corporate entities, they are expensive to maintain, iterate and run. There is still no strong correlation between the use of AI and the business outcomes so there should be a real ceiling to how much enterprises would pay for tokens. The gov is a usual choice to establish contracts and get some stability, similar to building nuclear reactors or military equipment. And posturing about limiting model access is just saying it is expensive to subsidise its use for cat image generation or call summaries.

I am pretty sure we have not found the killer app (like an IDE even) for us to extract all the possible value from the models yet. I would even go as far as to say that the synthesis between a human and AI could leverage average models to achieve a lot more compared to the model/agent working on its own.

edit: Just to add to this, I am going through Mythos scans and it is not perfect, very much similar to what pentesters would do with the added bloat of noise in reports about nonissues.

If Amodei and the co. were in charge the models would alert the police if someone said "boob" and the goys would only get GPT 2 level models, hell, even that might be too dangerous.

I wonder if the countries that don't have "AI Sovereignty" end up being like what Japan is now, technologically. It's stuck in 90's/early 2000's tech and norms (i.e. left behind) but its infrastructure and society chugs along (the demographic problem is a separate issue).

Would that make those countries more attractive to young people perhaps? As a place to grow and learn skills where the opportunities are non-existent in the AI Sovereign countries.

Damn. I predicted this last year and got thrashed for it.

Glad to see others catching on.

> And it doesn’t stop with the security questions: the Trump administration’s signature style of international engagement is to wield American leverage as a bundle. Deadlocks in trade negotiations are broken by threatening to withhold intelligence, tech deals are stalled by reference to food safety standards. And so I don’t know when a U.S. administration would choose to leverage its seemingly inevitable predeployment authority over frontier models to secure its broader interests, but I’m sure it would in due time. That means that even if we do everything ‘right’ on the security and economic side, frontier access is still fundamentally contingent as long as there’ll be divergences between governments’ strategic interests.

The Trump Administration telling the very neo-fascist oligarchs who bought him an election and bought him a ballroom to play nice with their toys? At the expense of rampant capitalism? Lol.

He already showed us the limit of his comprehension of the topic when he made EO 14179 limiting states from regulating AI.

Trump doesn't swing for perfect pitches. He is a madman, a lunatic, and a true moron. Do not give this man any credit. I would be shocked if he could tell you the time on an analog clock.