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Posted by RGBCube 9 hours ago

Mullvad exit IPs are surprisingly identifying(tmctmt.com)
421 points | 250 comments
kfreds 3 hours ago|
I work at Mullvad. (co-CEO, co-founder)

Some aspects of the described behavior are as we intended and some are not. The cause is not exactly as described in the blog post. As for mitigation, we are already testing a patch of the unintended behavior on a subset of our infrastructure. If any of you try to reproduce the blog post's findings you may get confusing results throughout the day.

We will also re-evaluate whether the intended behaviors are acceptable or not. Some of this is a trade-off between multiple aspects of privacy, and multiple aspects of user experience.

Please note that this is my current understanding, which may change. I was only made aware of this an hour ago, and most of that time was spent talking with Ops, considering what to do immediately, and writing this post.

Finally, for those of you who do security research: when you find a security or privacy issue, please consider notifying the maintainer/vendor before publishing your findings, even if you intend to publish right away.

azalemeth 3 hours ago||
You really do provide a reassuring, good service -- thank you.

It's also worth stating that the client (including the cli client -- which, with a bit of work, you can get running in most situations where you'd use native wireguard) by default has a key rotation interval of I think 72 hours.

`mullvad tunnel get` will show it and `mullvad tunnel set rotation-interval <hours>` will change it. This is the preferred mitigation method of the post.

I personally don't mind having a pseudo-static IP (some other suppliers offer a static IPv4 as a feature!) as I wish to prevent network-level snooping from my ISP and governments. It's also worth stating that I think having a smaller IP space is an advantage for a privacy VPN: there are more potential users acting behind any given externally visible IP. Combined with technologies like DAITA (which effectively adds chaff to the tunnel) and multi-hop entrances and I personally think that this service really does plausibly make harder the life of those who snoop netflows all day.

lionkor 2 hours ago|||
I just want to say I absolutely love Mullvad! You guys did a fantastic job at designing a genuinely good and trustworthy (as much as possible) VPN vendor. You communicating here is just another data point towards this.
999900000999 28 minutes ago|||
Can we have an Open Suse client.

Sorta odd you don't support one of Europe's most popular distros.

c0balt 20 minutes ago||
It already has official packaging for Tumbleweed, see https://github.com/mullvad/mullvadvpn-app/issues/2242 for the upstream issue. Leap can use the normal Linux application, you will just have to provide the dependencies yourself.
999900000999 5 minutes ago||
https://mullvad.net/en/help/install-mullvad-app-linux

>The Mullvad VPN app is available in our repository for the following supported Linux distributions:

Ubuntu (24.04+) Debian (12+) Fedora (42+)

The only thing I see on the issue you linked is a way to jerry-rig the fedora package. When I tried that I kept getting untrusted key warnings. You can skip them of course, but it kind of undermines any type of trust here

ignoramous 3 hours ago||
> Finally, for those of you who do security research: when you find a security or privacy issue, please consider notifying the maintainer/vendor before publishing your findings

  How to report a bug or vulnerability

  ... we (currently) have no bug bounty program ... send an email to support@mullvadvpn.net
https://mullvad.net/en/help/how-report-bug-or-vulnerability / https://archive.vn/BeHhr
dust-jacket 2 hours ago|||
Not having a bug bounty or dedicated email address does not make it OK to go public immediately
autoexec 1 hour ago|||
Discovering a bug that could put people's lives and/or freedom at risk if they don't do something about it makes it okay to go public immediately. That said, by all means notify the maintainer/vendor as well.

It should always be assumed that someone else (if not several someone elses) have already discovered the same flaw and are currently taking advantage of it while users remain totally unaware of their actual risk. By going public immediately, you give as many of those users as possible a chance to protect themselves.

Waiting to disclose something harmful when the users in danger could otherwise take steps to make themselves safe would be like not warning people entering a building not to go in because of a gas leak until after you've contacted the building owner and the fire department has shown up.

hmry 1 hour ago|||
> Expecting people to hold off on disclosure of something harmful

That's not what they said though. They said "please consider notifying the maintainer/vendor before publishing your findings, even if you intend to publish right away" (emphasis mine)

autoexec 1 hour ago||
I do think hitting "send" on the email to the responsible party immediately before publishing (or at least notifying them as quickly as you can afterwards) is a smart thing to do. I mean, why wouldn't you? My concern was more about the "Not having a bug bounty or dedicated email address does not make it OK to go public immediately" comment. It can sometimes be difficult to track down the right person to notify and so when the risks to people are high enough whichever one you can accomplish the soonest is probably where I'd start.
hmry 38 minutes ago||
Oh yeah fair enough
dust-jacket 1 hour ago|||
> Discovering a bug that could put people's lives and/or freedom at risk if they don't do something about it makes it okay to go public immediately

The flipside of course is ... does your disclosure increase the risk?

> aiting to disclose something harmful when the users in danger could otherwise take steps to make themselves safe would be like not warning people entering a building not to go in because of a gas leak until after you've contacted the building owner and the fire department has shown up

I don't think it's like this at all. The risk of a gas leak is not increased by telling people about it and can't be prevented after its occurred. To stretch your analogy, I'd say its more like you've found the gas leak and instead of turning off the gas supply are instead running around outside the building shouting about how there's a gas leak.

autoexec 49 minutes ago||
> The flipside of course is ... does your disclosure increase the risk?

When you've got that much on the line you have to assume that the risk is already present for all users. It's true that there's always a chance that some users won't find your disclosure in time and additional would-be attackers who weren't aware of it already will start taking advantage of the flaw, but the alternative is that no users are safe.

> The risk of a gas leak is not increased by telling people about it and can't be prevented after its occurred.

It's true that warning people not to enter wouldn't make the gas more dangerous, but it limits the death count of the impending explosion. It keeps at least some people from entering the building and walking into a death trap.

There's no way to shut off the gas supply when you can't control what's already running on user's devices and more users are downloading and installing the buggy code all the time. It's really not a perfect analogy. The point is that immediate action will save some people, while waiting around means that nobody has a chance of being saved.

r_lee 44 minutes ago||||
if they don't think it's OK, then they should have a bug bounty program.

why are companies so entitled to get free security research/audits?

mvdtnz 1 hour ago|||
Yes it does actually.
dust-jacket 1 hour ago||
I don't feel like its hard to come up with examples where (I would say) its ethically wrong to disclose immediately. If you spotted a company's mistake that might endanger their user's lives or safety, would you put those users at risk simply because there was no obvious financial reward?

If so, I guess we just have different opinions on the ethics involved here.

wren6991 3 hours ago|||
To support? Oof.
kfreds 3 hours ago||
I'm not sure what you mean by "Oof". We don't have a dedicated security team because security and privacy are integral to all aspects of our service. It doesn't make sense to centralise it.

As for our support team they are responsive and experienced. Several of them have worked with us for many years and do offensive security research in their free time.

Unlike many organisations we don't see customer support as a cost center, just like we don't see security as a cost center. Our support team represent our customers, and as a consequence contribute a lot to how we prioritise our roadmap.

traceroute66 2 hours ago|||
> I'm not sure what you mean by "Oof".

I second this.

Clearly the person who wrote "Oof" has never emailed Mullvad support.

Whenever I have emailed Mullvad support I have received a prompt reply from a human being who clearly actually cares about taking ownership of the question and seeing it through to resolution.

I have also witnessed first-hand the support person taking the question to an internal team member where it requires additional input. So there are clear paths for escalation if circumstances require it.

Finally the support mail allows for PGP encryption of communications too.

(I am not a Mullvad shill. Not a Mullvad employee. Just a satisfied customer)

nananana9 2 hours ago||||
It still probably makes sense to alias it to security@mullvadvpn.net for privacy/security concerns.

I'm not familiar with how you run your company -- without the context you gave most people would hesitate emailing support@ for security issues.

fragmede 2 hours ago|||
Human psychology is weird and some things are just cultural. If you have the ops team make the security@ email alias just forward to support, you could avoid having to go into all that.

"Just email support@" feels like you don't care. That you do, and that your support team is awesome, doesn't change the fact that there are other companies out there who's aren't. Security people are human with human egos, and they want to feel special, so giving them a special way to reach you, even if it's the same thing behind the scene, makes a world of difference.

solenoid0937 7 hours ago||
> As an example, imagine that you are a moderator on a forum and you suspect that a new face is actually a sockpuppet of a user you banned the day prior. You check the IP logs, and despite using different Mullvad servers, both accounts resolve to the overlapping float ranges 0.4334 - 0.4428 and 0.4358 - 0.4423. This gives you a >99% chance that they are the same person.

This sounds like how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency.

cycomanic 5 hours ago||
Why? If I was an intelligence agency and designing a VPN I would simply log all the IPs connecting to my VPN and not rely on statistics on exit nodes to identify the users, even more so because they rely on the users to pick different servers.
faangguyindia 5 hours ago||
How would you claim it's a no log VPN?
LordAtlas 5 hours ago|||
I could just...lie.
haakon 4 hours ago|||
You really think someone would do that?
fragmede 4 hours ago||
What, just go on the Internet and tell lies? Who would do such a thing‽
ZeWaka 4 hours ago||||
*gasp
im3w1l 4 hours ago|||
One person can tell a lie, but a company consists of many people. You must ensure that only few people know of the logging or there will be a risk of a leak.
michaelt 3 hours ago|||
Well, there should only be a few people with the access needed to discover logging is happening. Just put the logging configuration in whatever secure configuration management tool is storing your TLS keys and suchlike.

Make it look like an accidental misconfiguration and if an insider who isn't an NSA mole does somehow discover the logging, there's a fair chance they'll turn a blind eye anyway. After all, if you work at a VPN, publicly outing your employer for logging will tank the business, then you and your colleagues will all be out of a job.

arcfour 4 hours ago||||
An intelligence agency already consists of more people than you need to run a VPN service.
im3w1l 3 hours ago||
Still I think it's easier to avoid the need for more people than necessary. "Just lie" sounds like the easiest solution but on closer inspection maybe it is not?
arcfour 3 hours ago|||
Because if you lie you get infinitely more data than if you don't lie. And if you lie you can do it completely in secret whereas if you don't lie you get articles like the OP exposing the teeny amount of data you're trying to collect. It makes no sense.
nkrisc 2 hours ago|||
Lying is almost always the most cost-efficient answer to anything, if you’re not concerned about your trustworthiness, morality, ethics, etc.
xboxnolifes 4 hours ago||||
Intelligence agencies... are generally pretty good at that.
autoexec 25 minutes ago||||
leakers and whistleblowers are extremely rare. History is filled with examples of conspiracies involving many people that went on for long periods of time before one person eventually risked everything and said something. The Tuskegee Experiment went on for like 40 years! If keeping secrets were all that hard none of them would have been allowed to go on as long as they did.
ekianjo 2 hours ago|||
Companies can lie at large too. Enron, theranos, and many others come to mind.
zahma 4 hours ago||||
Their 3rd party audit didn’t catch this…

I guess we’ll see how they respond.

traceroute66 3 hours ago|||
> How would you claim it's a no log VPN?

Mullvad have been taken to court over this in relation to a copyright infringement case.

TL;DR The judge permitted people to take a fine-tooth comb to Mullvad's infrastructure and no logging was found[1].

[1] https://mullvad.net/en/blog/mullvad-vpn-was-subject-to-a-sea...

tanh 6 hours ago|||
Yeah I'm sure one day it will transpire Cloudflare is affliated with intelligence agencies too. The solution to a "sudden DDoS" is to put their website behind Cloudflare. Wonder who can do those sudden attacks?
sph 5 hours ago|||
That’s been my pet theory from day 1, and not because of DDoS. Simply because they are the SSL terminator for most of the internet and can see anything going on in cleartext (and I’ve seen them protecting some shady stuff)

I recall a PRISM slide showing the diagram of Google and the public internet, with a big arrow on GFE saying, quote, “SSL added and removed here! :-)”

If NSA aren’t installed at Cloudflare, I wonder what they are even doing.

sph 1 hour ago|||
To add: apparently that PRISM slide got its own Knowyourmeme entry: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ssl-added-and-removed-here
nottorp 51 minutes ago||||
> I’ve seen them protecting some shady stuff

Hmm do we want them to decide what stuff is shady and what isn't?

We're already allowing payment processors to do that and it's not good.

tanh 5 hours ago||||
DDoS is just one of the impetuses for a service provider be MiTM'd
linkregister 5 hours ago||||
It's within the realm of possibility that NSA is collecting data with Cloudflare's consent. It seems unlikely that Cloudflare would jeopardize their entire business model over it. Unlike other companies in the leaked NSA slides that participated in PRISM, Cloudflare would face a near-total loss of customers. Their entire value proposition is being an unobtrusive traffic intermediary.
fph 4 hours ago|||
Within the realm of possibility? Let's be honest, if you are a top NSA executive and you couldn't find a way to get your hands on Cloudflare's private keys (bribing or threatening the right person), you are not getting your Christmas bonus.
nly 4 hours ago|||
It is of course inconceivable that the NSA do not have the private keys for dozens of browser trusted certificate authorities

That nonetheless doesn't help them unless they are doing active MITM. In order to do that they'd have to have at least some physical presence at Cloudflare or on the path to Cloudflare.

RealityVoid 3 hours ago||
My understanding is that they tapped communication nodes before. I would be surprised if they can't tap the pipes to cloudflare.
fragmede 8 minutes ago||
I mean, it is the CIA, but if you encrypt it before it leaves the box, and you're decent good with the key material, how are they going to get at it? Tapping the fiber then gets them encrypted flows, which isn't nothing, but, well, it would be surprising if they had access to the clear text.
linkregister 4 hours ago||||
Is this information derived from Enemy of the State starring Will Smith and Gene Hackman? It was a great movie and the first DVD I ever bought.
philipallstar 2 hours ago|||
Do people in government get bonuses linked to performance?
sph 1 hour ago||
Government agencies get budgets linked to performance.
philipallstar 9 minutes ago||
Well - do they? In my experience they get budgets for spending their current budget.
sph 5 hours ago||||
> Unlike other companies in the leaked NSA slides that participated in PRISM, Cloudflare would face a near-total loss of customers

People didn’t care when they learned about PRISM, why would they care now when it’s a known fact? The sane stance would be to assume Cloudflare is in cahoots with NSA.

linkregister 4 hours ago||
All the companies involved in PRISM made public statements saying they ceased participation. Google undertook a costly initiative to add encrypted connections over their datacenter circuits. The NSA leaks were a forcing function that led to a massive uptake of encryption. Up until that point it was common for websites to support only HTTP.

The NSA leaks dominated news cycles for the entirety of 2013.

netdevphoenix 3 hours ago|||
> All the companies involved in PRISM made public statements saying they ceased participation. Google undertook a costly initiative to add encrypted connections over their datacenter circuits

This is as helpful as Whatsapp's so called E2E encryption comms (that just happens to not be applicable by default in certain situations).

lukewarm707 4 hours ago|||
my llm api traffic terminates tcp at cloudflare in lovely plain text :/

it does give better peering. reduces latency a bit for me.

my-next-account 3 hours ago||
I had no idea that this was a thing. How can you figure out where SSL turns into plain text on its route to the destination?
lukewarm707 22 minutes ago||
in this case it's my design to use cloudflare.

but you can also see from curl or traceroute, that the endpoint you talked to was a cloudflare ip and your ssl ended there. after that you can't see inside cloudflare.

netdevphoenix 3 hours ago|||
> Cloudflare would face a near-total loss of customer

I think more people than you would expect would be happy to accept that as the price for protection against malicious actors

breppp 5 hours ago|||
That slide was about the NSA sitting inside Google data centers without Google's knowledge.

That doesn't mean collusion

xorcist 3 hours ago||
That's the thing though: We can't know that.
DaSHacka 2 hours ago||
Well, we kind of can, given that "SSL added and removed here :-)" was a pretty explicit workaround to the issue of encrypted communications in Google's infrastructure, just not between sites (IIRC).

Either way, if they were directly colluding with Google, they would have had a much simpler time siphoning off that data.

hammock 6 hours ago||||
I don’t see how they couldn’t be. Either on purpose, secretly my coercion, or secretly without their own knowledge. It’s so valuable
kdheiwns 5 hours ago||||
Yeah, their origin is a story of absolute incredible luck. Cloudflare came out of nowhere and suddenly massive sites with huge user bases around the world, including places like 4chan, were getting DDoSed. Then they immediately announce that they transitioned to Cloudflare. Hell of a lucky time to make a company that the entire internet suddenly became absolutely dependent on.

The funny thing about that era is you knew they started using Cloudflare because they went from stable with constant uptime to going down and showing a Cloudflare banner randomly all the time for a good year or so. They ran worse with Cloudflare than they did while they were allegedly getting DDoSed. The whole company glows, as the late great HN commenter Terry Davis would've said.

UqWBcuFx6NV4r 5 hours ago|||
Am i the only one that actually remembers this time period? It wasn’t that long ago. The confidence of your assertion is completely misplaced. I remember exactly where i was when I first read about CF, on launch day. DDoS attacks were CERTAINLY a big issue before Cloudflare came along. A whole lot of script kiddie energy was poured into them. LHC? Slowloris? IRC C2? This wasn’t niche stuff. That’s why I remember the CF launch, because I and everyone else knew that it was a big deal, given what the landscape had been for quite some time. Sorry if you personally didn’t have your finger on the pulse for whatever reason, but this was far from a niche issue, even for big sites / usual targets like 4chan.
kdheiwns 4 hours ago||
I was there and recalled there being occasional script kiddy DDoS attacks here and there. But the uptime when being attacked was still much, much better than the first 1-2 years of actually using Cloudflare.
Imustaskforhelp 1 hour ago|||
> as the late great HN commenter Terry Davis would've said.

Oh my god, this is how & when I realize that Terry Davis (Rest in peace) used to use Hackernews too: https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=TerryADavis

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10061171 (From this comment written by terry):

"I wrote all the code from scratch, including a 20,000 line of code compiler that makes x86_64 machine code from HolyC or Asm and operates AOT and JIT.

My JIT mode is not interpreted. It optimizes and compiles to x86_64 machine code.

I was chosen by God because I am the best programmer on the planet and God boosted my IQ with divine intellect." -Terry A Davis.

dewey 5 hours ago|||
> Wonder who can do those sudden attacks?

Anyone with a few crypto currencies in their wallet that can click a button on any of the booter services with botnets for hire.

overfeed 5 hours ago||
You are right, they don't have to do it themselves, but guess who's protecting the booters from other booters?
l23k4 5 hours ago|||
Primarily specialist bulletproof ddos protection services like ddos-guard.ru, not "Cloudflare" as is the popular meme among clueless commenters.
linkregister 5 hours ago|||
Most modern booters are not maintaining public websites that could be the object of DDoS attacks. They're renting residential IP addresses from free VPN users.
illiac786 5 hours ago|||
Well there is still the small detail of them not storing any logs.

This is a massive issue in my view, it allows correlation across multiple VPNs exit nodes, but that’s it. It doesn’t allow to identify you automatically. It does significantly lower the bars for identifying you though, but the requirements are still high.

Hopefully they fix this soon.

I can’t believe this type of “let’s make it a hash or something sensitive” still happen, and at mullvad, of all places. Why not randomise it simply?

overfeed 5 hours ago||
> It does significantly lower the bars for identifying you though, but the requirements are still high

If you squint a bit, it looks a lot like a "Nobody But US" (NOBUS[1]) scheme. A few more identifying bits could tip the scale for party that has a whole host of other bits on a list of suspects, without being useful to most other people.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOBUS

linkregister 5 hours ago|||
Then why complicate it by being publicly insecure? If Mullvad were wanting to defeat anonymity, they could simply log the traffic metadata while falsely advertising they aren't.

Their ads on San Francisco's public transit are good.

hackinthebochs 4 hours ago|||
Good VPNs tout the fact that they had nothing to give in response to a subpoena, or that there was nothing a law enforcement agency to find when they seized a server. For mullvad to be effective as a honey pot it needs to survive these events with its reputation in tact.
MuteXR 3 hours ago||
If it were a true honeypot by a state agency, they'd be able to just lie about having nothing too.
hackinthebochs 2 hours ago||
Not when people get arrested and the investigative techniques, sources, etc are made public. They would have to intervene in the legal process to make sure mullvad's role was kept secret. Presumably this isn't always feasible across jurisdictions.
raverbashing 4 hours ago|||
"public insecure" JFC

Security is always a balance. Always

AI is showing that everything has a weak spot (wondering where are the "I don't make mistakes with C" now people are - but that's for another discussion)

There's another commenter mentioning this makes sense because exactly it avoids them keeping information on which customer is matched to which server. You know, one of the things you don't want to log

Could it be done better? Probably.

Here's a better idea, logging off is 100% safe

Meanwhile 99% of the normies will go for NordVPN

illiac786 5 hours ago|||
You definitely need glasses then.

Let me specify: The user must have entered his data on one site which the attacker has control of. That is a high bar still.

UqWBcuFx6NV4r 5 hours ago||
it really isn’t.
illiac786 5 hours ago||
Examples?
overfeed 1 hour ago||
IP addresses are metadata - and don't require search warrants, meaning they are fair game for dragnet surveillance. Tapping into a backbone, a la Room 641A, can be used to cross-reference timestamped public posts on an anonymous message board to other data sources (e.g. subpoena Netflix for payer based of Netflix's access logs from VPN exit IPs)
arcfour 4 hours ago|||
Mullvad predates the Snowden leaks by several years and was not mentioned anywhere in them.

Sure, there are other intelligence agencies, but that's the one I'd be the most worried about. Since either they run it, or they would know of it and want to emulate the idea, or know of it and have access to it from the partner agency running it. Or they are not a threat to me.

There's also the issue of no publicly known cases where someone that used Mullvad being deanonymized through the VPN but instead being discovered through some other opsec failure. If an intelligence agency has this capability they have been sitting on it for almost 2 decades without making use of the data. Hard to believe.

codethief 3 hours ago||
> Mullvad predates the Snowden leaks by several years and was not mentioned anywhere in them.

Wow, I didn't realize Mullvad was this old! Then again, maybe they weren't popular enough back then for intelligence agencies to target them? For instance, Mullvad kinda rode WireGuard's popularity wave by being the first(?) VPN provider to implement the protocol. Big ads on billboards came even later. So maybe they only became a target in recent years?

cjblomqvist 4 hours ago|||
In this particular case I'm quite sure it's not the case. Good arguments in the other comments (why not just log more if that's the case), but I also happen to know a little bit about the workings of Mullvad (I live in Gothenburg where they're from...)
tommica 6 hours ago|||
> This sounds like how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency.

So does your comment...

traceroute66 3 hours ago|||
> how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency

I think its safe to assume that intelligence agencies have other options available to them, such as country-wide timing attacks.

asdff 6 hours ago||
Makes you wonder...
BLKNSLVR 6 hours ago||
Every now and then there are articles like this one about something that Mullvad may or may not be able to do better, and there are always comments about whether they're an intelligence front.

I don't know the answer, but there are two ways to take it:

1. Submarining to destroy confidence in an actually trustworthy, decent VPN company

2. They're an intelligence front.

For me, Mullvad have the appearance of the greatest likelihood of being legit since they're not aggressively pushing their product with lies and fear mongering. That gels with my vibe. If they're an intelligence front, well, most VPNs probably are as well, so I'm no worse off.

Luckily I'm not doing anything that would get me in the kind of trouble for which multi-jurisdictional cooperation is worthwhile.

linkregister 4 hours ago|||
You'll find comments accusing anything of being an intelligence front on internet message boards. I agree with you that public evidence is overwhelmingly in favor that Mullvad is earnestly trying to protect privacy.
8cvor6j844qw_d6 6 hours ago|||
[dead]
connorboyle 6 hours ago||
> As an example, imagine that you are a moderator on a forum and you suspect that a new face is actually a sockpuppet of a user you banned the day prior. You check the IP logs, and despite using different Mullvad servers, both accounts resolve to the overlapping float ranges 0.4334 - 0.4428 and 0.4358 - 0.4423. This gives you a >99% chance that they are the same person.

I don't see how the author is arriving at this ">99% chance" purely from the numbers provided in the article. Assuming the first (banned IP) seed and the second seed are both in the range 0.4423 - 0.4358 (a stronger assumption than is justified by the example), all this tells us is that the first and second IP addresses both have seeds in a range that would contain 0.4423 - 0.4358 = 0.65% of all Mullvad users, which 0.0065 * 100,000 = 650 users. We've eliminated >99% of users as "suspects", but we haven't actually gotten >99% accuracy in identifying an individual across multiple exit IPs.

In more Bayesian thinking, the overlap in potential seeds is great evidence to think these IP addresses represent one and the same person (or Mullvad VPN account at least), but as far as I can tell, that's not what the author is saying.

grey-area 5 hours ago|
Say your forum is a big one and has 1000 active users, with 1 joining every day. Most will be a lot smaller/less active.

What are the chances that someone uses this vpn, joins your forum the day after someone was banned, and has an ip in a similar range?

For most small websites this would be strong evidence.

Robin_Message 47 minutes ago||
I think you are (informally and correctly) doing Bayes theorem here. The prior is combined with the conditional to give the posterior estimate; the conditional is not itself the estimate.
lorenzohess 7 hours ago||
The purpose of a VPN does not include anonymizing users with respect to the sites they visit,so it shouldn't be too surprising that Mullvad doesn't enforce unique exit IPs. Users who want anonymity should use networks like Tor.
illiac786 5 hours ago||
Why not? Why can’t it be the purpose of a given VPN service?
PhilipRoman 4 hours ago||
If you use the VPN for the Web, browser fingerprinting is a major threat outside of specialized scenarios
mort96 2 hours ago||
In other words: a VPN service can't by itself solve all problems which potentially lead to deanonymization, it can only provide anonymous networking.

Why can't it aim to solve what it can do? TOR is a great example: the TOR network itself can't perfectly anonymize you due to browser fingerprinting, but users of the TOR Browser get both the TOR network resisting deanonymization on a network level and a browser with plenty of anti-fingerprinting measures built in. A VPN could aim to prevent deanonymization on a network level so that users who want to stay anonymous can use the VPN in combination with fingerprinting-resistant software.

jorvi 6 hours ago|||
That is exactly the point of public VPNs..

If I'm on a public VPN, I don't want anyone to know who is making the request, including the terminating IP.

Think about it. By your logic, VPNs shouldn't be used for torrents because VPNs shouldn't anonymize you to the terminating IP. Whereas they work gangbusters for that.

If you are talking about private VPNs.. Mullvad isn't one.

DrBenCarson 4 hours ago|||
Public VPNs only protect you from your ISP
DaSHacka 2 hours ago||
And, arguably more importantly, from the service you're using.
charcircuit 6 hours ago|||
I think you are misreading his comment. He is saying that on a VPN it is standard behavior that if you visit site A and site B they will both see you connecting from the same IP and can infer you are potentially the same person.
fragmede 4 hours ago||
Site A and B have to collude in order to make that inference. Outside of Cloudflare, no one is colluding at that level.
camgunz 53 minutes ago|||
Plenty of people own more than one website. You're also forgetting about random site assets like web fonts, CSS, JavaScript CDNs, etc. etc.
antonvs 4 hours ago|||
That would only be true if there were no ad networks.

But today’s internet is essentially a giant ad network.

colordrops 6 hours ago||
Isn't Tor a us government project that has been shown to be deanonymizable?
SirHumphrey 6 hours ago|||
Sort of. There are a bunch of timing attacks bug in general it still works fairly well.
overfeed 5 hours ago||
Also, a buch of conspiring entry-/exit-nodes will do the trick, if you have a budget for enough of them.
mike_hock 2 hours ago||||
It has been successfully deanonymized, and resistance to NSA-level capabilities is explicitly not a stated goal.
DaSHacka 2 hours ago||
Do you have a source for this?
mike_hock 2 hours ago||
No, because I don't keep a list of every article I've read over the past decade or so, but there were multiple busts where a regular law enforcement agency (FBI and their international counterparts) were able to prove the identity of a user simply by timing attacks.

The fact that Tor does not intend to tackle the timing problem is plainly stated on the Tor website.

breppp 5 hours ago|||
and so is ARPANET
47282847 4 hours ago||
Missing from the story: did they reach out to Mullvad? Would have been interesting to see how their security team responded.
kfreds 3 hours ago|
As far as I can tell they did not, and I've asked both our operations and support teams. I will update this post if I am mistaken.

Edit: In hindsight I regret making this comment. It was unnecessary, but removing it now would look weird.

Havoc 1 hour ago||
Seems fine. You didn’t exactly demand a 90 day embargo or something.
tschumacher 4 hours ago||
Great find by the author and I have no trouble believing this is an oversight by Mullvad. Kind of shocking that something this simple slips by them but I could see myself missing it.

Putting aside the IP correlation across multiple servers, at first I wondered why even keep the user IP stable on one server. But I think it makes sense because as the author states other VPNs usually have only one IP per server so they are essentially simulating that. The advantages for the user are, if they find a server that works for accessing some service they can connect to that server again and it will work again because they get the same IP.

The IP correlation across multiple servers they should fix though with something like rand.seed(user_pub_key + server_id)

lxgr 3 hours ago|
> The advantages for the user are, if they find a server that works for accessing some service they can connect to that server again and it will work again because they get the same IP.

On the flip side, if they’re getting banned by a service because of a noisy neighbor on the same IP, they’d have no way to work around that, no?

TurdF3rguson 3 hours ago||
You mean if the neighbor somehow burned every VPN location?
lxgr 1 hour ago||
Doesn’t even need to be every location. Some services are only accessible from a single country, and Mullvad has at most a handful of locations per country.

All things considered, there are just an incredibly small number of IPs shared among all users, no matter the allocation strategy.

VoidWhisperer 7 hours ago||
> Surprisingly, the exit IP you are given is not randomized each time you connect to the server, but deterministically picked based on your WireGuard key, which rotates every 1 to 30 days (unless you use a third-party client, in which case it never rotates).

I'm a little confused on this... what is stopping third parties from doing key rotations like the main app clients if it is detailed in the repo how to do it?

nvme0n1p1 7 hours ago||
Third party clients include e.g. the WireGuard driver in the Linux kernel. It's definitely not the network driver's job to mitigate an attack against one specific commercial service.
DANmode 7 hours ago||
> what is stopping third parties from doing key rotations

Knowing to do so, primarily.

fooker 7 hours ago||
It seems surprising that people would expect a VPN to be comparable to Tor.

It does seem ridiculous once you spell it out like that, and then you have to realize that it’s plausible to de-anonymize even Tor users by controlling exit nodes.

curtisf 6 hours ago|
Most of the big consumer VPNs include "privacy" with an implication of anonymity in their marketing, so it shouldn't really be surprising
unselect5917 6 hours ago|||
It is privacy with respect to your ISP. A lot of ISPs are pretty shitty. Some will rat out their own customers to copyright mongrels and threaten to disconnect you - which is important when there's a local monopoly.

Things you connect to or log in to are clearly going to be able to ID you at least with in the context of the login that you use regardless of what the VPN does.

I'm logged into HN through Mullvad as it happens. I usually leave it on regardless of what I'm doing because what I'm doing isn't my ISP's business even though I'm pretty happy with them.

SXX 6 hours ago||||
But what privacy do you think majority of people who not doing something badly illegal expect from VPNs?

Most likely these people just look to hide their torrenting, saying political shit on Twitter from employer and not share their choice of porn with local ISP. Also just adding one more layer between them and occasional scammer who can sometimes infer more broad geodata from their IP leaked from yet another database. Oh and now to avoid "Show your ID" page on the same porn sites.

It works well enough for this goal. Not everyone needs NSA-proof solution.

PS: Obviously more tech savvy people understand importance of hiding traffic on public WiFi, but I doubt average Joe the VPN user will buy VPN for this.

illiac786 5 hours ago||
Source? Why not “I don’t want to get profiled”?
SXX 2 hours ago|||
We're talking on website with one of highest concentration of tech savvy IT professionals, programmers, cyber security experts, etc.

What percent on people on Hacker News who say they care about privacy live without Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook accounts?

How many people outside of HN do you think care about privacy for real? Like about adtech surveillance and not about their naked photos leaking?

I doubt either % is very high sadly. We tend to say we care, but very few people actually do anything or use self hosted solutions or not tied to Apple or Google ecosystems.

illiac786 2 hours ago||
I mean, there’s a lot of products out there marketed around privacy. I really doubt the HN readers are the sole source of income for all these products… I do agree, it’s a minority, but within the VPN using population, I don’t think it’s a minority. Average Joe watching porn doesn’t give a shit about someone knowing about this (except, and that’s new, if you’re lucky enough to live in a place where VPN has become mandatory for this).
SXX 2 hours ago||
VPN market is huge, but in my opinion majority of people who buy it "for privacy" dont really care about privacy and just use the same Google services or other accounts registered using a mobile phone number.

You really cant blame VPN providers for selling on "privacy" hype and not delivering because most people dont care either way.

Might be I wrong, but I feel in west for most normal people use VPNs for torrents, watching porn and hidding activity from school or employeer. Small subsets are also sport fans who bypass geo blocking and people scheming for cheaper regional prices on netflix / steam / consoles.

illiac786 1 hour ago||
I would definitely blame a VPN provider if: 1. Only a minority of users care about privacy 2. VPN provider still advertise for “privacy”, even though it only target a minority of users that care about it 3. VPN provider doesn’t deliver on said privacy.

I blame mullvad for messing up, but I do not suspect them of working with some state sponsored surveillance programme at the moment.

hdgvhicv 5 hours ago|||
The mass surveillance industry doesn’t rely on ips or even cookies to track you.
illiac786 5 hours ago||
That seems like a huge bet. I don’t bet on this, I am careful about cookies and my source IPs.

Do you have any facts? I know they really on _additional_ stuff, but do you have sources showing that they never use cookies or source IPs?

schubidubiduba 4 hours ago|||
He said they don't rely on it. They can use fingerprinting. Obviously they'll still use any other data you give them, including IP addresses or cookies.
illiac786 4 hours ago||
Ok, what was his point then? “They don’t rely on it, so it’s useless to obfuscate it”, or “but you should keep obfuscating it” or something else? I am missing the relation to my original comment then.
fragmede 4 hours ago|||
That's a different claim though. Obviously they'd use cookies and source IPs when they're available, because why not use all of the information available to you. That browser fingerprinting is good enough that neither of those sources are necessary is for you to decide on whom to believe.

On that topic, though, is the Mullvad Browser, who's entire intention is to defeat browser fingerprinting.

illiac786 4 hours ago||
I need to test it, that reminds me, thanks. So many browsers. Does it support multiaccount containers?
vintermann 6 hours ago|||
"Not knowing who a user is" privacy may still be useful even if you don't have, "not knowing two users are the same user" privacy.
camgunz 57 minutes ago||
"identifying" is the wrong word here--that's only possible if Mullvad stores a mapping between IP addresses and people, which according to them, a 3rd party audit, and a law enforcement raid they do not. It's also worth saying it's possible to use Mullvad entirely anonymously by mailing them cash, which I do.

Also if the threat model you're addressing w/ VPN usage is anything other than "I don't want my ISP to know what I'm doing" you need to use/do something else.

arian_ 6 hours ago|
We keep adding layers of encryption and the metadata keeps snitching on us anyway.
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