Posted by tedsanders 8 hours ago
The thing is is that it seems a lot of the effort through the years (which is unquantifiable in scale as to how much time was spent and how many people focused their entire worklives on it if any) has gone for trying to look for the proof, and the search for the disproof seems minimal.
For example, these machines, if scaling intellect so fiercely that they are solving bespoke mathematics problems, should be able to generate mundane insights or unique conjectures far below the level of intellect required for highly advanced mathematics - and they simply do not.
Ask a model to give you the rundown and theory on a specific pharmacological substance, for example. It will cite the textbook and meta-analyses it pulls, but be completely incapable of any bespoke thinking on the topic. A random person pursuing a bachelor's in chemistry can do this.
Anything at all outside of the absolute facts, even the faintest conjecture, feels completely outside of their reach.
The underlying model may still effectively be a stochastic parrot, but used properly that can do impressive things and the various harnesses have been getting better and better at automating the use of said parrot.
I find this hyperbolic, but ya gotta juice up the upcoming IPO. I hate that they took an interesting announcement and reminded me why I hate tech and our society at the end.