Posted by simonw 5/27/2026
You may want to get one of them to check the math on that :p
Other than the hosting providers, I am also yet to see anyone directly making money from their OpenClaw agent.
Is that quarter same as any other quarter in terms of infrastructure costs (e.g. are there any temporary discounts happening coincidentally)?
Bloggers are having AI psychosis too.
I agree with this person, let's use AI psychosis for when using an LLM gives someone psychosis, not for when we think, what, that a blogger made some poor assumptions?
I've been calling that out for a couple years now. LLMs best and most viable use case is still just as a dev tool. Even for non-programming tasks, I still get better results from the LLM if I instruct it to write code to do the task...look at Claude Cowork for example, it's everything I used to do with python myself. It's not really a novel capability, it's just using python & bash for automations that any sysadmin has been doing for decades. Yeah, that's valuable for a non-techincal audience but is it $1T valuable? I don't think so.
When has an IDE or other dev tool ever commanded a $1T valuation?
These things get lost in discussions because people conflate "overvalued" with "not useful." LLMs are useful, particularly as dev tool, but Anthropic & OpenAI are definitely way overvalued.
PMF is one interpretation, but it could also be read as desperation.
In my opinion, we've been at PMF for quite a while now. The November inflection point that's often referenced definitely changed how we interface with models, but as far as coding goes, I feel like Cursor had proven itself useful for at least a year prior to that.
The demand has always been there, the outstanding question is still - how do you build a business on top of these products? None of the frontier models have emerged as uniquely capable, but open weight models are now catching up in capability as well. The explosion in go-to-market roles feels more like an attempt to lock customers into contracts so that they don't consider alternatives.
I assume the hope is that during this 12-month contract they will develop real integrations, something deeper than just a CLI harness. If you've ever worked in procurement or dev tooling at a reasonably sized company, you'll know that this is exactly what teams try to avoid.
It's anyone's guess what will happen this time, but I'm excited to see how the IPOs go.
Anthropic and OpenAI have shown people want a tool for task offloading, driving predictable token consumption and justifying the math, so long as users stay in that dynamic.
However, knowledge workers using these tools daily are getting exhausted with them. Outputs come out polished but hollow. Talking to a frictionless, frame-completing model all day drains you.
If user behavior drifts away from assistant usage because of that, per-token math implodes. The valuations we're hearing about all the time rely on usage compounding daily. The fatigue is a timer running against that compound.
Anthropic's Constitution is the closest hedge out there, I think. Installing an identity structure into the model through training. But it's still assistant-first, so the fix there is only partial.
I've spent the last year running a product that flips the architecture so identity is primary and the assistant role is secondary. Same frontier models, completely different conversational quality. The fatigue property doesn't really show up.
Whichever labs figure out how to install real identity natively in the weights are going to be the ones with PMF in the next phase.