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Posted by ColinEberhardt 5 hours ago

Is This Sustainable?(jamiehurst.co.uk)
74 points | 71 comments
simonw 1 hour ago|
This piece is really good:

> The cost of building has collapsed, but the cost of aligning organisationally has not. If anything, it's gone up. When three different teams can each produce a working solution to the same problem in the time it used to take to write a proposal, the bottleneck moves from engineering to coordination.

We're still figuring out how to productively use coding agents as individuals, the next challenge is figuring out how to productively use them within teams. Coding agents reduce one bottleneck - producing working code - but that just moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.

(Note I said "working" code and not "good" code, that's a whole other thing.)

CuriouslyC 24 minutes ago||
I still don't understand why coding agents are silo'd, and chat history is treated as disposable. Everyone on the team should be able to see all conversations and drop in and steer agents at any time, and chat history should be part of organizational memory.

I thought labs would have pushed collaborative steering by now, but I guess people got so TUI pilled they haven't even considered the possibility.

mupuff1234 3 minutes ago|||
What will chat history give you that the output of that chat won't?
nullpoint420 18 minutes ago|||
I built this at my work and it didn’t turn out too well.

It’s a distributed agentic system on Temporal where all inputs are signals to the workflow. And then each agent has its own GNOME desktop either in a K8S pod or KubeVirt VM.

The biggest problem was context and ownership. The more we kept steering the model the worse it got until eventually it couldn’t complete its task. And on the ownership side, no one clearly owned the outcomes so it was just there… generating slop.

Sharlin 51 minutes ago|||
The vibe I got from the article was that now that technical work is faster, bosses expect everything else to be proportionally equally accelerated, even though LLMs either don’t help at all at those workloads or actively make things worse.
daxfohl 44 minutes ago|||
One mitigating factor is the increased productivity leads to consolidation, aka layoffs, meaning fewer people to align with. (Leading to further increased productivity, more consolidation, and so on ... Whether this is a virtuous cycle or a vicious cycle depends on perspective).
esafak 28 minutes ago||
Different teams could already step on each others' toes before AI. If there is confusion over which team ought to develop something it might indicate an organizational problem. Crucially, if you ship something you must be willing to maintain it.
steveBK123 3 hours ago||
> The result, in my case, is that I code more than I have in years. Three years ago I coded maybe once a fortnight, mostly throwaway PoCs to demonstrate concepts. Now I code most days of the week, in between other work.

This kind of senior engineering role really depends on the type/size of an org. I've had jobs like this on & off and generally don't stick around for long. There have always been high-impact hands-on-keyboard senior roles that involve coding most/every day..

> The other thing that gave way was thinking time. There's very little of it in my working day now. The productivity gains from AI got captured by output volume rather than output quality.

I actually see this externally from b2b vendors I am a client of. Companies that used to churn out X new products/month are now pushing 4X products but they all suck. The quantity over quality market is going to produce new opportunities for others.

throw310822 3 hours ago||
There's also this part:

> Three years ago [...], the process was familiar: write a proposal, get feedback, iterate, build a small PoC to demonstrate value, get a team assigned to take it to MVP, ship something fully featured and integrated with the rest of the platform six to twelve months later.

This to me smells of large, slow, very political organisation where actual work gets done at glacial pace. The increase in speed is probably not due to LLMs, rather to the fact that this person now has an excuse to present working products while before, by their own admission, they were mostly dedicated to producing corporate slop.

dijksterhuis 3 hours ago||
> The quantity over quality market is going to produce new opportunities for others

once the linkedin anti-ai hype train starts in earnest that’ll be when there’ll be money to be made.

monkey see, monkey do.

cyanydeez 2 hours ago||
there's no anti-ai hype train. It doesn't exist. There'll merely be more and more bots crowding into every space that the only people left will not care.

The rest will be out touching grass.

dijksterhuis 2 hours ago||
not yet. but given the growing backlash my bet is that at some point linkedin monkeys will eventually all begin posting about the importance of “human centric design” or whatever.

at that point there’ll be some money to be made for the supposedly “replaceable” software engineers they’ve been shitting on this whole time.

i’m hoping my bet pays off, cos i would like nothing more than to rinse these people for everything they’ve got. it’ll be payback time baby.

1dom 1 hour ago||
> When I returned from five months of paternity leave in early 2024, the org needed someone at my level to lead GenAI work in developer experience and I was the available person. It wasn't a bet so much as an opportunity I recognised when it showed up. I took enough time to satisfy myself that this wave was different from previous hype cycles before I committed, but once I did, I had to drop most of the rest of my work on developer experience to make space for it. For a while I was the only engineer at any seniority dedicated to this, and the depth I built up happened by necessity as much as by design.

Followed by....

> Senior engineers in AI-forward orgs are doing more leveraged, more hands-on, more meeting-heavy work simultaneously, with the human-focused parts of the role paying for it. The build cost collapsed, the alignment cost rose, the thinking time disappeared, and the productivity gains got captured by output volume rather than output quality. I

What is the job of a senior/lead engineer if not to take the uninformed hype chasing of the senior business, and deploy it in a way that makes things better?

I can't help but feel this senior engineer is talking far too casually about how - under their watch as senior AI engineer chap - engineers spend more time on throwaway code, have less personal development/1-to-1s, and didn't improve code quality. They haven't even mentioned the added financial token cost.

The only thing standing in the way of greedy hype chasing CEOs and a post apocolyptic wasteland is engineers taking their crazy requests and not making the world worse, and it sounds like the author has failed here. I think it's very positive and frank to share their experience, but I'm surprised they don't seem to see their role in it.

lstodd 50 minutes ago|
> The only thing standing in the way of greedy hype chasing CEOs and a post apocolyptic wasteland is ...

Nothing.

Either you quit outright, or ride the flames to the bottom, depending on personal ethics to cash-out potential ratio.

It's not an engineer's job to fix upper management delusions, and engineering is poorly equipped for that in any case.

1dom 47 minutes ago||
> It's not an engineer's job to fix upper management delusions, and engineering is poorly equipped for that in any case.

What is the job of engineering leadership in your mind then, if not to take requirements from the business and convert them into technical solutions which improve things for the business? The requirement here was "AI to improve DX" the outcome was developers lives are worse in many creative and future impacting ways.

I sincerely would love to know if the author or their employer consider what they've done as successful or not.

lstodd 39 minutes ago||
If the requirements are self-contradicting while at the same time being non-negotiable their job is to quit.
1dom 11 minutes ago||
So we agree on what their job is, but you're saying that if their job becomes impossible, they should quit, and I agree.

Do you think the author of the original article should have quit, rather than tried?

thatmf 13 minutes ago||
> ...this shift advantages people who can build fast with AI tools and disadvantages people who can't. The bias to action is genuine, but it isn't neutral. The engineers who've adopted these tools effectively get heard more often, get their proposals taken seriously more often, and shape direction more than those who haven't.

If only this was limited to engineers.

I'm seeing this applied to every role across organizations. The designer that gets heard is the one who can vibe code the best. Same with strategists, writers (seriously), and other people for whom "coding" is not remotely their expertise or function. This exponentially accelerates the "cost of aligning organisationally" when you have not only several eng groups but every single person in your team regardless of role proposing their own solutions, that as an engineer it is now your responsibility to babysit (or as we are terming it, "harden").

Meanwhile, the quality of creative work suffers because instead of working in a surface that's designed for their trade and process (e.g. Figma) they jump straight to Claude or Cursor or v0 or whatever, where they're bounded by (and graded on) their ability to manipulate a bot, rather than their actual skillset.

enraged_camel 7 minutes ago|
>> I'm seeing this applied to every role across organizations. The designer that gets heard is the one who can vibe code the best. Same with strategists, writers (seriously), and other people for whom "coding" is not remotely their expertise or function.

It's not about vibe coding the best, it's about delivering value the fastest. And the value in this case is bringing clarity to the conversation when there are a lot of unknowns. As the article notes, prototypes are great for that. It's much easier to poke and prod at a prototype and use it to explore the problem space than to sit in on a presentation where the slides are just heavily distilled versions of an engineering design doc that is dozens of pages long (and most people will just skim anyway).

Sharlin 58 minutes ago||
All right… So, the cost of technical work has gone down, surely leaving more time for things like coordination, leadership, and thinking on a more operational level, right?

> The cost of building has collapsed, but the cost of aligning organisationally has not. If anything, it's gone up.

…Oh.

> What gave way is the human-focused work. Mentoring is the clearest example. I have less time for 1-2-1s than I did three years ago, and that isn't an accident, it's a choice I've made under pressure.

Ohh.

> The other thing that gave way was thinking time. There's very little of it in my working day now.

Ohhh.

faangguyindia 33 minutes ago||
I know a few guys here who were doing sysadmin, devops, frontend jobs for a few years in India and now they are driving a taxi in India. AI took their job. There have been mass layoffs by foreign companies in India; fewer outsourcing contracts are flowing to India.

As a result, many service companies are moving to product businesses.

will it also happen to developers in other countries? I've no idea.

When I tell this to others, they go in disbelief, but people don't care till their own job is gone.

weakfish 26 minutes ago|
Did AI replace their job, or did the cost of having AI skyrocket so the companies did layoffs to make budget? There’s a difference.
Gomotono 16 minutes ago||
There are plenty of use cases were you can easily replace a person with AI today.

AI is very good in creating a working website. We do not have the issue of internet explorer 6 anymore, frontend doesn't host security relevant code and it shouuld also not have the business logic. So its easy to let ai create a website which talks to a secure api endpoint.

Plenty of basic android apps are just the same thing: Some API Endpoint calling Frontend.

I know plenty of people i worked with, which I would replace tomorrow if i got the choice of more tokens vs. having to work with them, putting in a lot of effort in Code Review and not seeing real benefits.

If the industry thinks we don't want to grow anymore, than the market gets saturated -> issue 1. Issue 2 -> if the market is saturated and tokens costs a lot of money budget wise, you will have to reduce your team size to compensate for the budget -> further reduction of market capacity.

We know that AI is replacing jobs

nicbou 3 hours ago||
When a long article is topped by an AI-generated image, it makes me wonder if I should bother reading. Did a human write this?
xnorswap 2 hours ago||
When I get the sense that something might be generated I ctrl+f "honest" and "framing".

These are words that humans use, but that Claude loves to use in a particular way, the kind of way used in this article. It particularly likes the phrase "The honest version".

poly2it 1 hour ago||
> But the trade is real, and I don't think the industry is being honest about it.

Add "X is real".

masfuerte 3 hours ago|||
I got about halfway through before the AI cliches drove me away.
enraged_camel 3 hours ago|||
It appears to be a mix. I sense that a human wrote it, or at least parts of it, and AI was used for polish. But the LLM-isms are definitely obvious.
tripleee 51 minutes ago|||
It's the same thing that's been AI-rehashed 10,000 times already - did you read one of those?
Gomotono 2 hours ago|||
Yes of course.

Why? You are already on hn which filters content before you read it

r_lee 1 hour ago||
that is just simply wrong
Gomotono 23 minutes ago||
What is wrong?

I do not mind at all that someone creates an AI Image to decorate a blog article.

I'm also not directly offended if someone is using an LLM to write text.

And i find it a valid argument, that people who post on HN and get enough votes for content, people read and liked, that this can be enough as a filter or quality gate.

andyferris 3 hours ago||
Just a funny observation, apologies in advance:

I am rewatching Stargate SG-1 with my children right now and cannot read this comment except in the voice of Teal’c.

In the previous episode the team was in 1969 on a hippy bus.

My advice is to chill out a little…

customguy 3 hours ago||
I'm just gobsmacked at how self-absorbed this is.

I was listening to some obscure band you wouldn't know with a few chicks I met roller blading last week, and I can't help but read your comment while imagining the first few notes of the second song playing. After that we watched The Simpsons and my advice is to not eat a cow, man.

customguy 50 minutes ago||
But on second consideration, I also want to apologize to you. It's not that your comment in a vacuum is so terribly, incredibly self-absorbed. It's the cumulative effect of many little such comments over time, which I pay way too much attention to, and you could say your comment "triggered" me and I let all that frustration out in one solid chunk of snark. "Gobsmacked" is really the wrong word for that. I sometimes am, but your comment isn't the one.

The truth is, I still don't know how to put it more nicely, but please have the generosity to take my lampooning of your comment as the time honored tradition of whatever you call it when you point out the flaw in something by driving it to an absurd extreme. It does have a place, but my eye-rolling "being gobsmacked" was a bit too much indignation. tbh when I wrote that I thought I ought to get flak for that, but fuck it, I'm annoyed, I'll say it anyway. But I didn't get flak so now I feel the need to calibrate it myself a little.

In short, I think you're wrong, that comment was bleh, but so was mine. Have a great weekend and much fun showing your kid stuff you both enjoy.

Arainach 13 minutes ago||
I agree with the content, but... "1-2-1"? From context, this seems to be "1 to 1" or "1:1", but the numeral 2 would never make sense. Am I missing something?
neuroblaster 4 hours ago||
No, it isn't sustainable. There is a paper called "The AI Layoff Trap"[1], it says that it is a prisoner's dilemma and this is why this dude feels like he's in an arms race.

On the other front, people are saying that NVidia can't deliver stable drivers for like 15 months and they don't want to take software updates at all, they are more happy with last year's drivers.

I think this is a black swan event in the industry. A lot of people already suffered and more people will suffer still. Industry is going to change for sure, but probably not in a way that you would expect. Black swan simply doesn't work that way, it doesn't change industry in a good way, hence black swan.

[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/402969772_The_AI_La...

bryanrasmussen 3 hours ago|
black swan is not a reference to the badness of blackness but the unlikelihood of something contradicting volumes of previous data.

Thus it can change industry in a good way or a bad way, because the black swan is unprecedented and unpredicted, its consequences and their nature is unsettled.

neuroblaster 3 hours ago|||
Traditionally in economics black swan is an unpredictable negative event.

The only thing that is unsettled here still is how many more people will lose their jobs and how much cumulative loss prisoner's dilemma will generate.

I saw random people on Internet suggesting to piggyback this disaster and dip into the crazy money that it is "generating", but in a zero-sum game somebody has to lose.

tomjakubowski 31 minutes ago||
As I understand it, it's something unpredictable and high-consequence, not necessarily negative. The origins are in Hume's problem of induction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction
neuroblaster 11 minutes ago||
Unpredictable positive events usually just don't get attention. Something good just happened, okay, that's good. People just don't pay attention.

Technically black swan might not be negative, but for all practical reasons, "black swan event" is what people call impactful unpredictable negative events and they expect those events to be negative. In other words, it is a synonym for "a disaster" of sorts, only "economical".

This is how an economist would call a disaster.

joenot443 2 hours ago||||
The description I remember is the idea of holding the belief “all swans are white” until one encounters a black swan, and having to update their beliefs accordingly. What does this mean about swans?

But maybe that’s not the intended meaning either? It’s an interesting expression.

andyferris 3 hours ago|||
Yes. And ultimately the colour of swans in Western Australia impacts… almost nothing at all.
defrost 3 hours ago||
.. save decisions about cycling w/out lights around Perry Lakes at night.
m0llusk 3 minutes ago|
In the past bullshitting would only get you so far, but now bullshitting is both pervasive and revered. Contributors who specialize in taking things all the way, getting not just features but entire projects complete and fully functional aren't even in the conversation. What matters is the appearance of speed, not proof of completeness.

Sustainability will be most stretched where the bottom line actually matters. Medical devices and data processing, commercial aviation operations, precision manufacturing, and such. Bullshitting only takes you so far until actually doing the thing and showing that with high confidence becomes the only criterion.

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