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Posted by WillDaSilva 8 hours ago

The dead economy theory(www.owenmcgrann.com)
558 points | 742 commentspage 8
5701652400 4 hours ago|
agree with many points in here.

one thing it missses, birth rates. soon there will be no humans left to participate on either side of the economy.

Ygg2 4 hours ago||
> Who is the customer when the customer is the thing you’ve eliminated?

Seeing how US economy is K-shaped, the answer is the rich. Assuming of course the service is right.

5701652400 4 hours ago|
how do we call it when there is only top bar of K-shape?
leoapagano 5 hours ago||
You can have all the GPUs in the world, and all the AI datacenters in the world, but when we are barreling towards a global energy crisis (first Russia/Ukraine, then the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and in a few decades we will run out of fossil fuels altogether), what are all of those GPUs and AI datacenters going to do without energy? Nothing. I say this because I think this will have a far larger effect on the economy than anything else this article is talking about (AI replacing labor, a possible AI bubble crash, etc.)
geriatricguy 5 hours ago||
>article complaining about AI destroying the economy >includes 2 dozen AI generated images in the article
yarn_ 4 hours ago||
I really don't understand why people feel the need to include this stuff. I am not saying that out of some anti-AI sentiment, i just genuinely don't understand how peoiple have so little taste as to think it adds to their writing.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hbbY!,f_auto,q_auto:...

Like what is this?

5701652400 4 hours ago||
barey noticed those placeholders. they are mostly decorations. can hardly even read text on them. IMO, article is not AI generated based on style.
Ancalagon 5 hours ago||
What's the endgame here? Like the group of psychopath capitalists own everything, automate everything, and devise ways to separate themselves from or un-alives the remainder of the population and live, trade, and war amongst themselves with their armies of robots?

Edit: Also this article has so many AI-generated images. I hate that I can't tell if the words themselves are AI-generated or not as well.

BlarfMcFlarf 5 hours ago||
Endgame assumes intentionality. Maybe the economy is just people responding to much shorter term incentives and the whole thing is a misaligned runaway process.
Ancalagon 5 hours ago||
So dark. I don't understand why it seems like civilization now seemingly follows short-term incentives so much more than it did even 20 years ago. Is it just power concentration or lack of education? Like we have lost the ability to long term plan and collaborate it feels like.
krapp 5 hours ago||
This isn't tik-tok. You don't have to use terms like "un-alive" here. Comments on HN aren't policed for maximum advertiser appeal.

And yes, that's more or less the endgame.

Ancalagon 5 hours ago||
I was being a little facetious with the "un-alive" term - seemed funnier than "massacre".
krapp 5 hours ago||
You can't spell 'slaughter' without 'laughter.'
motohagiography 6 hours ago||
It's not diseconomic, but it obviates a lot of constraints that required a person to manage a coordination problem, and those were a lot of jobs. Keynesian ideas about employment and GDP are just having an apocalypse. Like someone replaced the hole diggers and fillers with a conveyor belt and I would guess Keynes critics would have some predictive power here.

A couple developers can collaborate, but several need someone to specialize in coordination to yield additional value from more workers. Whether you call it management or orchestration, the need emerges at each threshold of additional complexity.

When AI collapses the productivity of 10 people into one, that's the disruption. The best AI user is going to suck all the opportunity out of the room for the others, and that's when layoffs happen. However, this assumes a fixed pie of opportunity. That's the real problem. As though there were only so much dirt to shovel.

FAANGs are old/mature and don't have exponential growth in front of them anymore, where opportunity within them is mainly about optimizing themselves but not growing in radical new directions. AI will indeed eat those optimization workforces alive. They resemble professions because law firms and doctors offices aren't growing either. They're mostly solving internal optimization problems, not finding net new growth opportunities.

The real effect is AI radically polarizing the difference between growing and dying in an org, where any firm that isn't growing fast enough will have its fixed opportunity pie collapse as AI disrupts this regulated oxygen supply. Whereas, growing firms without ceilings on the opportunity to deliver value will use AI to grow to the opportunity available.

Professionals can do fine if they re-orient themselves to new growth with different unit pricing, but yes, anything large and slow moving is probably going to get eaten.

ChrisArchitect 6 hours ago||
A clearer look at the point about the internet being half/over-half AI generated content :

AI Now Writes as Many Online Articles as Humans

https://graphite.io/five-percent/ai-now-writes-as-many-onlin...

bbor 1 hour ago||

  The humans are still there, scrolling, but the thing they’re scrolling through has become a performance staged by machines for an audience that hasn’t yet realized the show isn’t for them.
That is a gross mischaracterization of the bot situation, dropping absolute loads of essential nuance on the ground for a simple "50/50" number. Sorry if that sounds pedantic, but I find this to be insanely important; if you think fake news is bad now, wait until literally any other human might just be a bot so you can dismiss their points and/or perspective out of hand.
nwhnwh 7 hours ago||
What about The Dead Human Theory?
jordemort 7 hours ago|
I'd take this more seriously if it wasn't regularly punctuated by disgusting little slop images
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