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Posted by surprisetalk 2 hours ago

Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC(www.anthropic.com)
199 points | 133 commentspage 2
chinathrow 2 hours ago|
Expect the token price to correlate with the stock price.
ParkRanger 1 hour ago||
Who’s going out of the gate first, Anthropic or Space X. Sequencing probably matters more than it should.
hubraumhugo 2 hours ago||
With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, we're likely to see 3 of the largest IPOs ever (by a wide margin) this year. Will existing institutional investors trim other positions to allocate a lot of capital for these mega listings or is this not a concern?
thewebguyd 1 hour ago||
Most likely. Funds generally don't have much unallocated cash, they operate fully invested, so three huge IPOs will force an asset rebalancing which can cause some liquidity drain from the rest of the market.

Plus as insider lockup periods expire, that's a ton of dollars pulled out of the market and into safer assets. It's going to be a huge net exit of capital.

I'd expect a lot of volatility and pretty heavy downward pressure across the rest of tech.

nemomarx 2 hours ago||
At least all the index funds are obligated to, right?
qwytw 2 hours ago|||
Based on current rules they wouldn't included in the S&P 500 for at least several years even based on optimistic scenarios.

Of course IIRC they looking into tweaking the rules to allow some handpicked extremely unprofitable companies in, due to "reasons"....

s1artibartfast 1 hour ago||
They are scared of underperfoming the market and failing to exist as an index. Losing money with everyone else is a more sustainable risk than losing money while other indexes go up.
bluGill 2 hours ago||||
Maybe. If you read the fine print they are not. They have the goal of matching the index returns, but they never say anywhere they have exactly the stocks in the index.

Index funds all make active choices and often hold companies not in the original index. They are more passive than a traditional funds that buys and sells all the time, but they still make active choices. When an index changes stocks they can look up the price - but the funds mirroring the index need to make real trades that if not carefully done will change the value of the stocks (and cause the fund to under perform the index), so index funds have plans to prevent this. Compared to a traditional fund an index fund looks passive and there is much much less for the manager to do - but that doesn't mean the managers do nothing.

chilipepperhott 2 hours ago||||
Most index funds wait for at least a year before adding a new listing. The only exception that I'm aware of is QQQ and SpaceX.
ac29 1 hour ago|||
Not true for Vanguard's total US stock market fund (VTSAX/VTI), the largest total US stock market fund in the world. Their CRSP index only requires 20 trading days post IPO, or 5 for large caps (this has been true for many years, this is not a recent change)
qwytw 2 hours ago||||
Technically they couldn't be added to the S&P 500 etc. until they become profitable.
nemomarx 2 hours ago|||
If space x gets an exception, why wouldn't anthropic?
DenisM 2 hours ago||||
company must have a history of profitability before being included in the S&P 500
nly 2 hours ago||||
Index funds follow indices and often only rebalance quarterly
whateveracct 2 hours ago||||
you and me will all be left holding a small cut of the bag
outside1234 2 hours ago|||
But only the amount the company floats for many index funds. So in the case of SpaceX, they are only floating 5% of the company. So the number of shares something like VTI has to buy is much smaller than the total market cap (5% of it).
christkv 1 hour ago||
Did mythos write the S-1? It better not have been a human given the amount of hype they are pushing.
kypro 2 hours ago||
What does it mean to submit confidentially – what's the process there? I assume it be made public when approved by the SEC?
Maxatar 2 hours ago|
It means that Anthropic has submitted a document that it intends to share with the public in order to solicit public investment. This document includes details about its business, financials/revenue, ownership structure, risks, etc...

The document itself is what's confidential until the SEC approves it, at which point Anthropic will release that document to the public and IPO.

outside1234 2 hours ago||
Got to dump this on everyone's SP 500 index fund before people figure out that there is a 95% drop in token usage when they are metered.
dcre 2 hours ago||
They are metered. That's why their ARR went from $9B to $45B in 6 months.
thewebguyd 1 hour ago|||
S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.
zipy124 1 hour ago|||
The profitability requirements are potentially being dropped. Consultation just closed and may be implemented as soon as next week.
snihalani 1 hour ago|||
I thought S&P also changed the rules on this one
sethops1 1 hour ago||
Only Nasdaq has changed their inclusion rules (at least for now).
rvz 2 hours ago||
Of course that fundraise was the last one: [0], everyone getting ready to dump their pre-IPO shares on to you as China catches up with their open models.

Better to do it now than to wait a day longer and the tokens are not getting any cheaper here.

Obviously OpenAI will file for IPO certainly this month, or even this week in response both SpaceX, and Anthropic.

Then AGI will then have been achieved externally.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48313390

lucamark 2 hours ago||
[dead]
root-parent 2 hours ago||
Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble.

"The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

chasd00 17 minutes ago||
> Time to short the market.

post your position for all to see if you're so confident. Time in market is way better than timing the market. I'd rather ride through a downturn, buying at the same pace i always do, and come out the other side than try to time it. Been there done that and i got burned every time.

leonidasv 2 hours ago|||
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
chronic29521 50 minutes ago||
> The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

And you can consistently beat the market as long as passive index investors believe in efficient markets.

malfist 7 minutes ago||
Show me an index fund that persistently beats passive index funds. https://www.investopedia.com/warren-buffett-usd1-million-bet...
dgellow 2 hours ago|||
Shorting when there is a mania is way, way too risky
boc 1 hour ago|||
The amount of actual, hard cash revenue these companies are making is a different ballgame from the dot-com bubble.
tucnak 1 hour ago||
Cisco was making loads of hard cash revenue during dotcom.
baal80spam 2 hours ago|||
> Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble.

I've seen this comment on HN at least 5 times already.

rvz 2 hours ago||
This is actually the pin everyone was looking for that will pop this AI bubble, including the token cost falling in China and the release of open models that are good and run locally.
bensyverson 2 hours ago|||
It could be, but the market could bounce right back. And if it does, it's hard to know who will emerge stronger. Anthropic could end up like Amazon, or it could end up like Yahoo.
bjtitus 2 hours ago|||
Where are these open models that are as good as GPT and Claude and run locally?
kenyuz 2 hours ago|
Every post anthropic generates feels like misdirection and bad summarization using AI. There is no sense of who the audience for this post is for and includes a lot of redundant information.
Maxatar 2 hours ago||
Can't see the relevance of this comment to the post. You can do a Google search for "confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC" to see other examples of companies announcing these submissions and they're all written in the same way.

It's just a standard/template that most companies reuse.

https://www.figma.com/blog/s1-confidential-submission

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gemini-announces-co...

https://investors.navan.com/news-releases/news-release-detai...

https://www.round1-group.co.jp/docs/pdf/2026/20260507_news_e...

conductr 2 hours ago|||
> This announcement is being published under Rule 135 of the Securities Act of 1933

It's a required public disclosure following a format traditionally used in mandatory public disclosures.

nemomarx 2 hours ago|||
Is there any real reason to have generated announcements anyway? You could get more polished text with some copy editors and I can't imagine cost is really a big concern for it.
luka598 2 hours ago||
It is possible that they are dogfooding
Catloafdev 2 hours ago||
It's a legal notice, what are you talking about?