Posted by maltalex 16 hours ago
NASDAQ has an incentive to offer early entry into the index (they want SpaceX to list on their exchange), whereas S&P has no incentive for early inclusion; it could only increase risk for them. Even if they /wanted/ to add SpaceX early, that could create a precedent with unpredictable consequences.
Since most shareholders I know plan to hold for another 20 years, waiting a year to get into the S&P average seems fine. Congratulations to S&P for sticking to principle.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/tech-stocks-sink-rc...
It dropped because tech dropped and it still has a lot of tech.
This is why QQQ was down far more than SPY, as QQQ is more tech heavy and will be adding these companies.
Strong job numbers + increasing inflation = overheated economy = goodbye interest rate cuts. In fact, there's a significant chance that rates will go up this year. Perhaps even more than once.
That means cost of borrowing will increase, which is bad for business growth.
*People who justify stealing from others by lazily giving a small pittance away according to a list some other guy showed them and they thought about for 5 minutes.
There are countless other indices that are not well known to request seasoning time of these mega companies.
Shifting to S&P 500 seems prudent at the point. Besides S&P does anyone know which indices will be safe from these IPOs?
I don't care about profitability, sustainability, ESG scores or anything like that. If the market is pricing unprofitable company at hundred of billions maybe there is a good reason for it. I do care about market having time to evaluate the company so index funds buy at fair prices. For this you need time and enough float and volume. Time being the main factor.
Of late the markets have become a casino. There is a large retail population that bets on options. Betting on IPOs is just another opportunity for such folks. By bending the rules Elon and others are trying to make it a more favorable bet for retail ensuring a near-term pop.
Kudos to S&P for standing up and sticking it to the man. And, woe to JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc for pushing overpriced paper, and on nasdaq etc for bending rules. This will be remembered later as the peak (my opinion).
Pension funds don't tend to follow the S&P 500, much less automatically. They're sophisticated institutional investors like CalPERS [1] who dabble in everything from public stocks to private equity.
It's other retirement assets, e.g. 401(k)s and IRAs, that tend to follow the S&P 500. But again, with substantial variation.
S&P including these companies would have driven a lot of money towards them. But there was a lot of misinformation around the magnitude of that drive, as well as the breadth of whom it would affect.
Telling that among OECD countries, the US is an outlier in having a much lower average funding ratio, and this despite the fantastic performance of the US stock market over the last 15 years.
Who tend to come up with bumfuck benchmarks other than the common ones. Sometimes for good reasons. Often to justify their own comp.
> Many would be better off using an S&P 500 index fund
Maybe. They would probably be better off with some total-market funds (instead of biasing towards large caps, especially if they're small). But my point stands: pension funds don't tend to automatically follow any major index, much less the S&P 500 proper.
Where are you getting this from? Basically zero pension funds automatically track any single index. (There seems to be a misconception equating pension funds with retirement funds in general. Pension funds are, on the whole, remarkably sophisticated investors. Many pensions funds were private shareholders of these companies already.)
> Russell is the preferred provider - and they will include SpaceX 5 days after the IPO
Russell has loads of indices. Their total market index will quickly incorporate SpaceX. Same with S&P. There are also IPO indices that will incorporate it on day one, because that's what they're designed to represent.
> Where are you getting this from?
At least it seems correct for a subset that may or may not be representative: “This report intends to provide insights into the overall and asset class benchmarks selected by the 50 largest U.S. public defined benefit plans. [.. ] the Russell 3000 index was most frequently cited to measure U.S. equity performance.”
https://www.nasra.org/Files/Topical%20Reports/Investment/P&I...
You don’t need to track index X to be affected by changes in X. You only need to hold something related to X. Almost all pension funds, heck almost every investment account in the world holds something affected by some index.
As a holder of index funds such as the S&P, I'd much prefer that these vehicles are excluded for at least some period of time to ensure that the greater fool isn't simply my index portfolio.
In the same way 9/11 was quite clearly an inside job.
Alternatively, a crop of big companies with real, potentially world-changing technology are going public.
This isn’t exactly pets.com we’re talking about.
Why do you tolerate that and not this?
See Elon talking about Tesla finally joining the S&P 500 so index funds would finally have to buy its shares. See a hundred examples where socialism is reserved for the few, the jungle and legal constraints for the rest of us.