Posted by poisonfountain 17 hours ago
All the other white collar workers are in the same boat. A pillar of the economy is going to be destroyed with no obvious replacement in sight.
For insurances... there's a reason why the three bullets of the plumber's brother were labelled "delay, deny and depose". You don't need a grunt to compose a denial order. Just let AI default-deny everything, most people won't have the energy left to battle the system or they'll die anyway before the claim finally sees an independent judge.
And as long as insurances aren't severely punished for denying claims that are found out to be valid later on, this dynamic will just continue as-is.
I don’t think the data really supports this? Last I checked at least.
Nobody wants to think anymore. Coworkers are now just intermediaries for their LLMs. Talking to them is just talking to the LLM - sometimes directly copied and pasted, sometimes minimal effort to conceal what they’re doing. It is so disheartening.
And the sad part is, LLMs are incredible and can enable you to do much better work if you can stay in the loop, and stop focusing only on shipping speed. But from what I have observed, very few people care to do this. Who cares about substance when middle management thinks your productivity is 10x?
Currently, LLMs are nothing more than amplification tools that require significant steering. If you think your job is mainly to take input from POs or managers, translate it into if/else statements and loops, and review PRs, then you never really understood your role. Software engineering—for those who went to university and studied it—is fundamentally about complexity management and cognitive automation. People in the field, or at least those with some math background who studied software engineering properly, understand that it's all about managing complexity; current tools are nowhere near replacing a software engineer. What they call "taste" is imagination, creativity, embodiment, a more intuitive understanding of context, and yes, superior intelligence compared to current AI. However, AI and LLMs are excellent at mechanical work and mimicking human intelligence, so use them for what they are, and stop whining.
Going forward, the world is ever-growing in complexity, and automation will become widespread everywhere. LLMs just unlocked another level. So basically, cognitive work will be automated—perhaps up to 90%—until the next breakthrough (if ever). You can sit and cry, or you can learn the tools and help shape the future.
Software engineers can automate the entire economy now, including the executives, yet they just sit there whining and crying. This is a self-esteem, confidence, and identity issue more than anything else.
What exactly are you helping shape? The volume of your employers bank account?
Regarding your employer's bank account: if that is all you were doing before, then that is all you will be doing after. You are just complaining about capitalism now. The irony, is that the means of production is now in the hands of millions. Those who are crying are those who paid their mortgages with for loops..well, I think they will continue doing so, with less hubris that's all. LLMs are nowhere near replacing full engineer.
So get a grip fellow engineers.
Both of these have been happening before the advent of LLMs
>The irony, is that the means of production is now in the hands of millions
The "means of production" means jack shit unless you have the capital to scale up rapidly
>Those who are crying are those who paid their mortgages with for loops..well, I think they will continue doing so, with less hubris that's all.
Why is it hubris to give a damn about you spend 40 hours a week doing, or to lament change when it works against your enjoyment of those 40 hours a week. God forbid people value their time in any way that isn't monetary.
I'm not sure about that. I read they are making better use of AI to accelerate building their businesses. Apparently, in China, people were not looking to work in corporations anyway, so they saw AI as a means to escape them.
> The "means of production" means jack shit unless you have the capital to scale up rapidly
There are people topping music charts without even having a brand; they just produce good music. There are people automating entire marketing pipelines to minimize capital expenditure, and there are people building niches for small crowds and making a good living out of it. Not everything needs scaling.
> Why is it hubris to give a damn about you spend 40 hours a week doing, or to lament change when it works against your enjoyment of those 40 hours a week. God forbid people value their time in any way that isn't monetary.
If you enjoy writing loops and if/else statements, you can still do it, but the market won't pay you when there is a tool that does it faster. That is the nature of the domain. Have you ever thought about the jobs that software engineers automated? What do you think those people did? They adapted, learned the tools, and moved on. This is the first time we are seeing automation at this scale in software engineering, and the reaction of software engineers is exactly the same as those in other fields.
Adapt.
Same point as the textiles industry in the 18th century..and software engineers automating other industries for the last 50 years for what? for fun?
I've shared a story before that between now and 2 years ago a developer who solely relied on AI has produced the same hot garbage instancing system within the same time period. For example back in my day in 2 years I went from writing a system that struggled with few hundred players to one that could handle thousands and far beyond that. The person using AI 2 years ago wrote a system that didn't work and wrote a system 3 months ago that doesn't work.
Everyone is saying how great AI is, but they're missing that the driver is just as important AI wouldn't be able to achieve any of this without capable (often seniors) using it and giving it guidance. It's really a difference between "it works" and "it works without flaws".
Of course AI can produce things that also "work without flaws" with solved problems and someone "recreating" something that already exists with AI is not that special, a junior developer could accomplish the same thing given the time.
But I do agree that AI becoming part of performance reviews and all that is producing more productive developers which is going to drive the cost way down. In a way AI is stealing from a developers salary and giving it to the AI companies which is pretty ironic considering how cold developers seem towards artists.
Look at prompt engineering, and how quickly it became a hot thing. Does everyone know to steer their AI well? There's only so much a harness can do for you once you start attempting to one shot with a single sentence of 4 words.
As others said, "write a Rust compiler make no mistakes" can only work if you overfit a harness to that single prompt. Nobody is going to do that.
So the part you mentioned about the knowledge you accumulated around how to know that "trade-offs between implementations" and "idempotency to prevent double-charges" is just moving to the domain of the english language and tokenizers. One could argue here that this is far more interesting as it requires you to explore deeper into how we communicate and describe the world around us. Reminds me of physics and math.
I think there's an optimism lenses to it if you can grasp it as an opportunity rather than an inevitable doomsday apocalypse.