Posted by poisonfountain 11 hours ago
I’m not planning on firing people, but I am planning on building more, using more tokens, and less app subscriptions.
One aspect of building that doesn’t erode is human values.
LLMs don’t create software with zero direction and although I do have 12 agents building constantly, I run out of attention to increase that to 100.
Is it really though? Access to information is quicker, but you still need to know what ‘good’ looks like to leverage it effectively. I can prompt my way to a medical diagnosis, but I’d still want to run it by a doctor.
If the LLM is wrong and gives you a wrong medical diagnosis you end up hurting your health. If an LLM gives you a wrong debugging answer you've just lost 5 minutes.
Software engineering is the only knowledge work where mistakes are usually inexpensive except for data breaches. Outside for that nobody cares for bugs.
That's not true in most other knowledge jobs. If a lawyer uses AI and hallucinates something there is a legal problem. If someone vibecodes an app and crashes, it can be fixed with more AI and try again
One of my tests for new models is to ask about a concept I already know the mathematical model for, but as if I don’t. So far, they all answer the same way:
1. Convoluted explanations about how it kinda-sorta is common terms.
2. If you follow up with the correct mathematical term, it immediately claims that’s correct and the right way to model it.
3. If you ask it why it didn’t use that term for your question, the LLM gives some version of explaining that it tried to match your language.
I have no choice but to assume the model behaves similarly other times — and that I am largely trapped in a basin of my own ignorance, when using LLMs.
It seems like new tech is something most of us have to lie down and accept as the new reality each time it's invented, barring full-scale rioting. Much as with the Cold War.
Yes, obviously we should not invent technology that seems likely to disrupt society out of existence
Don't get me wrong, I am sure we will get to all three of these pillars, probably by next year. I am not naive.
I’ve saved up a couple of months of salary, have a couple of bootstrap ideas that I believe are within reach for me equipped with a coding agent to build. Hosting can be done almost for free. What used to take entire teams and hence millions of dollars to build can now be done a lot cheaper. If I’m lucky one of those ideas can pay my bills soon. If not I’ll go back to consulting for a couple of months.
The coding and debugging part will be GenAI and possibly guardrails (harness engineering) tuned specifically for fintech, which they are also well-suited to implement.
I also would point out that, while this thought has occurred to me about the skills being commoditized, in practice I don't see that everyone's getting the same results from the tools. Not sure what's going on but that's interesting.