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Posted by vednig 7 hours ago

Open source AI must win(opensourceaimustwin.com)
914 points | 285 comments
palisade 6 hours ago|
I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable.

And, there is the issue of data poisoning from untrusted nodes. I've almost cracked that last issue with a self-healing checkpointed rollback system that doesn't have to throw out anything that follows the corrupt datum.

But, I'm just one person with an idea and I don't have infinite funds to make this happen. This isn't a small project.

Maybe there would be interest in something like this, now that entire frontier labs are being banned from making further progress.

The total power of all GPUs on the planet dwarf their capabilities, if we had a way to harness them in a distributed way efficiently. We wouldn't be able to train a Fable as fast as them, but eventually having access is better than never having access.

sho 4 hours ago||
As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea.

The far, FAR superior power efficiency means that even if you did harness every public GPU or GPU-like device on earth, you'd end up consuming so much excess electricity it would be cheaper on net to simply take the money that would have gone to the power bill and spend it on your own datacenter.

And even if electricity was free, having those GPUs spread over the world with internet-level latency will slow everything down by factors of thousands to millions - if it's feasible at all. Regardless, you're not getting fable-oss this decade, maybe even not this century.

It would be better for governments to buy and own their own datacenters, maybe as a coalition, and dedicate their operation to the public good. I believe that is what we actually have to do.

WithinReason 1 hour ago|||
Efficiency difference between training on GPUs and TPUs is 2x at best. You can get very efficient with tensorcores, converging to TPU efficiency. In the end math is math, you can't make a multiplication more efficient than it already is on GPU.
zozbot234 1 hour ago|||
The power-constrained part of compute is data movement, not the elementary arithmetic per se. Anyway, it's very possible to tweak the underlying design to increase throughput a lot for any given power budget at the cost of high latency. This seems especially useful for training workloads where we don't really care about latency as much.
schobi 1 hour ago|||
I guess this was more related to syncing GPUs.

If you were to take 500 computers with older 1080 GPUs, you might have enough compute/ram equivalent to an H200 GPU for training such a model. Maybe take 10000.

But if those machines are spread over 10000 homes, wired with residential internet service, training a large model will not get anywhere.

You go from "data in the same HBM memory chip" at 4.8TB/s or "data in adjacent GPU" with NVlink at 1.2 TB/s down to 25 MBit/s upload speed. Accessing the next piece of data is going to be about a Million times slower. At the same time you will heat a thousand times more, for a Million times longer.

incrudible 36 minutes ago||
You need to train independently and merge rarely. The problem is the merge step. Weights are too entangled, you are not going to get an improvement commensurate to the effort. Otherwise, everyone would do it. It is an open research problem.
ux266478 3 hours ago||||
AI hardware is for inference, not training. Training uses normal HPC crap. Superpods aren't really power efficient, it's kind of a meme, and it stems from limiting the power draw of other components by having less of them. It's more of a rounding error.

> you'd end up consuming so much excess electricity it would be cheaper on net to simply take the money that would have gone to the power bill and spend it on your own datacenter.

Costs spread over a large population, it really doesn't matter. You're not getting hundreds of thousands of people to pitch half their monthly electric bill to pay for someone else's datacenter. They will pay the electricity themselves quite happily though, if all they need to do is give you compute. This isn't new.

Interconnect is the bottleneck for distributed training, nothing else really.

sho 3 hours ago|||
> AI hardware is for inference, not training

Not sure what you are referring to, unless you don't think h100/h200/b200 are "AI hardware"

> Superpods aren't really power efficient

Maybe not compared to a specialized rig with multiple 4090s, but that is the best case for consumer hardware - the vast majority will be dramatically less efficient than that

Anyway, I agree the interconnect is by far the biggest obstacle and seems insurmountable, I should probably have led with that.

pksebben 3 hours ago||||
Bit of a doozie though, that one.

I recall getting really excited over hinton's FF foray, right before he bailed on AI as a societal direction (which, if anyone ever had the right, I suppose he does). If one squints, one can see a backprop-free base being much easier to train on geographically distributed and heterogenous hardware.

dyauspitr 3 hours ago|||
That makes no sense. It’s basically the same calculations for training as well.
Cider9986 2 hours ago||||
What makes you think Deepseek or GLM won't catch up to Fable level? Why would there be a break in the trend now?
zozbot234 1 hour ago|||
DeepSeek and GLM (plus Kimi) are at or above Sonnet level wrt. favorable workloads like coding. They're not close to Opus or the latest GPT yet, and Fable is even higher than that. Other workloads relying more on real-world knowledge have them even further behind, and this can't be mitigated without making the model itself bigger and harder to host locally.
thepasch 36 minutes ago|||
> They're not close to Opus or the latest GPT yet

Disagreed. GLM-5.1 is easily as good as Opus 4.5 for all the coding purposes I could throw at it, which is the model that kicked this entire hype cycle into overdrive in the first place.

Cider9986 1 hour ago|||
I've found GLM to be comparable or better than Opus at writing and at a fraction of the cost.
zozbot234 1 hour ago||
Writing does not rely on real-world knowledge all that much, other than knowledge of language itself. Even tiny models can achieve that, it's even easier than coding.
kuboble 1 hour ago|||
I think there are at least few question marks.

One being that extrapolating from like 3 data points is hardly science. All trends break at some point.

The other is that the measures to prevent distillation of their models (if it was a secret sauce of Chinese models) could work if nobody is allowed to use them.

incrudible 41 minutes ago|||
> As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea.

The first part is not really true though, the chips are not that much faster, the DRAM is not that much faster, and in aggregate it does not matter because there is just so much more consumer hardware out there (although perhaps that is changing as supply shifts toward datacenters).

The interconnect and data locality is the problem. If you could train it like e.g. you can render a scene with monte carlo ray tracing, any result from any node could be merged with any other and the combined result would have converged closer to the limit. I am sure research in that direction exists, it just has not proven effective within the scales it has been attempted.

trenchgun 4 hours ago|||
>But when people think of decentralized training, they don’t first think of gigantic datacenters, owned by the same company, training models across large distances. Instead, they imagine thousands of small datacenters, or individual consumers, pooling their spare compute over the internet to orchestrate a training run larger than any single actor could manage alone. Many companies are pursuing this vision: Pluralis Research, Prime Intellect and Nous Research have already successfully decentrally trained models at scale. But in practice, training decentrally over the internet has lagged far behind more centralized training. Even their largest models (Pluralis’ 8B Protocol Model, Prime Intellect’s INTELLECT-1, and Nous’ Consilience 40B) have been trained with 1,000x less compute than today’s frontier models (such as xAI’s Grok 4). https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-far-can-decentralized-...
girvo 5 hours ago|||
> The total power of all GPUs on the planet dwarf their capabilities

That just isn't true. It misunderstands exactly how much silicon has gone directly to those companies, and exactly how much more powerful said silicon is compared to consumer grade gear.

sho 4 hours ago||
If folding@home is a useful yardstick by which we might estimate the amount of GPU-ish capability that civilians might be coaxed into donating to a shared enterprise, yeah, it doesn't look pretty. This is extremely rough napkin math but comparing to xAI's Collosus 2 for example, for training workflows you're probably looking at 4-5 orders of magnitude the capability of all of folding@home combined. That's 100,000 times faster.

Very rough math like I said but I doubt it's directionally wrong.

And even if you did force literally everyone on earth with some sort of GPU to max it out 24/7 in service of an open source AI training enterprise - you would waste so much power trying to use that inefficient consumer hardware with the worst latency imaginable that it would be cheaper and faster to get everyone to instead chip in some cash to buy a datacenter with blackwell chips instead! So the idea has no legs whatsoever.

WithinReason 1 hour ago||
folding@home reached 2.43 exaflops by April 12, 2020, which would make it the largest supercomputer on the planet.
sho 33 minutes ago||
it's down 99% since that peak. But let's compare to it anyway.

It's pretty useless to compare raw FLOPS, but as a general hand-waving guesstimate, F@H is currently doing about 25 petaflops in a mix of FP16 and 32. AI usually trains at FP8, but to keep things fair the H100 is quoted at 60 FP64 teraflops per unit, so that's 12 FP64 exaflops given its 200k count.

So F@H at its peak did 2.43 exaflops@FP16/32. Colossus 1 does 12@FP64. These numbers are very hand-wavy, but I think the point is made.

By the way, I'm not trying to crap on F@H - I think it's an outstanding project and I've run it in the past. But a volunteer group simply cannot compete with well-funded, concentrated effort like what's going into AI.

whiplash451 3 hours ago|||
This could be of interest to you: https://thealliance.ai/projects/tapestry
procflora 2 hours ago||
Man, that project is such bait for my particular sensibilities but just looking at the copy about not sharing your data and only sharing weights has me feeling very disappointed in the project already. I would want a project like this to not elide fact that sharing your weight updates probably effectively means sharing your data too.
andai 3 hours ago|||
>The communication speeds are untenable.

Can it be parallelized or not?

If you take a model, make two copies, and fine-tune each one on different data, what happens when you merge them? Does it work if you freeze different layers?

I think this works if the steps are small enough. And the transfer should become tenable if the steps are big enough. Where's the cutoff?

Davidzheng 6 hours ago|||
Is the total compute capacity outside of meta, google, amazon, anthropic, oai and x is higher than even the capacity of any of them? In any case, there's no chance a public collaboration gets to anthropic levels of compute even if communication were no issue.
kelnos 5 hours ago||
Is the issue that training with less compute takes more time? Or is it just not possible? I think a collective using distributed training could tolerate the idea that it takes 10x as long as Anthropic to train a model, or whatever.
monkeydust 1 hour ago|||
Don't know but could BOINC setup which has been around for ages and mature plus has some incentive mechanism (Gridcoin) be used for this?
WithinReason 2 hours ago|||
The gradient info can be compressed 10000x with the right tricks, I think it is achievable. Nous claims they did it already:

https://github.com/NousResearch/DisTrO

There are other gradient compression papers from the past reporting large compression rates

cpdomina 3 hours ago|||
there was a project trying to achieve some of those goals a few years ago using p2p: petals https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/petals

their bloom model was also a collaborative effort https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/en/model_doc/bloom

laserx 6 hours ago|||
there are some strong open source groups like NOUS research taking the fight https://nousresearch.com/
Catloafdev 5 hours ago|||
Ya that'd be an awesome project, the only issue is how do you verify it's not being poisoned? To actually validate it would require more analysis than the training took to run. It would require a trusted network, not an open one, unless that can get solved somehow.
rustcleaner 4 hours ago|||
Could it be done by making a sparse MoE of thousands, or tens of thousands, of smaller experts in very niche domains? Maybe a tree-like structure of experts which can delegate from relatively general but inaccurate to extremely niche but accurate? Also these experts might be plug-and-play, easily swap out an inferior expert with a stronger one in the future without having to redo the whole pile?
Zetaphor 4 hours ago||
That's not really how the experts in an MoE work. They activate on token probabilities and are activated on every token. You don't necessarily have a discrete math expert and a discrete physics expert. And if it were you would still need a router that is trained on all of those domains.
slashdave 4 hours ago|||
Well, I suppose it is understandable why you want to attack the most obvious problem with such a scheme: obtaining sufficient compute.

That does mean you are actually neglecting the more difficult issues.

whateverboat 2 hours ago|||
The biggest problem is accuracy and integrity of the actors in the project.
logicchains 56 minutes ago|||
>I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable.

It is already possible: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08163 . You don't need to sync so frequently, so it can be done over normal internet, it's just less efficient (takes longer to converge).

labbett 3 hours ago|||
Sounds like SETI@home but for AGI... SAGI@home?
DonHopkins 3 hours ago||
Since SAGI can't be practically distributed, and it puts so many people out of work, how about moving all of the unhoused people into the nice warm data centers, and call it home@SAGI.

Or is that too close to the plot of The Matrix?

thomasjeff1 6 hours ago|||
I believe we are not the only ones
ai_fry_ur_brain 6 hours ago||
[flagged]
palisade 5 hours ago|||
Someone with AI psychosis would say it was easy. I'm saying the opposite. I'm stating that it'd be cool, but at the moment I don't see how it is feasible. And, for fun I tried to solve one small aspect of the problem.

I also didn't bring up the concept out of nowhere, this is in response to an article about open source AI. The premise of the post is releasing control to the public. What is more open than a decentralized system? And, why wouldn't you brainstorm in a comment on such a thread?

I also didn't ask an AI for the idea, it's just an idea I have. There's a difference.

bot403 5 hours ago|||
The first half of your comment is unnecessarily aggressive and dismissive to op.
ai_fry_ur_brain 5 hours ago||
Okay
aberzun 17 minutes ago||
It will win - in the sense that AI too will become a freely available resource. You can't stop progress.

My bet is that once cost-efficiency becomes a priority, we will figure out ways to get away from the expensive GPU infrastructure on figure out how to architect models for CPUs. I still remember that Microsoft paper about ternary weights.

WarmWash 6 hours ago||
Who is going to fund it? Training is unfathomably expensive.

You have either VC funded models looking for a return on investment, or CCP funded models looking to solidify authoritarian "model Chinese society".

Maybe there are some university 4B models, but I doubt those will carry far.

nstart 4 hours ago||
Tbh, there really needs to be some legal precedent set that makes model distillation a legal activity. If the model makers can rip everyone else's work and launder information as if it's their own without giving credit back to the original creators, I don't see why it should be illegal to distill the models. It's the same thing the frontier model makers are doing to IP everywhere else.
mewpmewp2 3 hours ago||
And which leading country is going to go for allowing other countries to distill their models?
vineyardmike 2 hours ago|||
If your country doesn't have any leading models, why not legalize distillation, either explicitly or implicitly?

(Chinese labs famously distilled American models, and that seems to be going well for them. They now have a competitive industry, home-grown talent choosing not to leave, and they now can truly compete without distillation).

dimitar 2 hours ago|||
It doesn’t have to be the leading countries, if the EU allows it, it is good enough to create a market for distilled models
mewpmewp2 2 hours ago||
But EU is way behind right?
Grombobulous 5 hours ago|||
I share your concerns, although we still see pretty similarly large and complex things that remain open source today.

I am astonished on a daily basis that my Linux computer is so close to the same experience as two operating systems put out by trillion dollar companies. It even does things that those commercial alternatives don’t do.

Also, if DeepSeek is truly putting out models with 1/10th the cost of Western competitors, and a fraction of the employee headcount, I think it implies that there will be a market for someone else to be in the space offering an alternative.

I think about how companies like IBM are so willing to contribute to Linux and give away those contributions for free because they are part of group of corporate sponsors that need an alternative to more dominant commercial players in the market.

Meta “gives away” React for similar reasons: it’s more beneficial for them to have it be a standard and be able to hire people who already know it.

It’s definitely harder to imagine the same ecosystem benefits of an AI model, but maybe it’s out there somewhere.

I could imagine some data center/VPS providers trying to sponsor something like that so that the big AI companies have less leverage over them.

Or maybe all this optimism is a pipe dream?

WarmWash 5 hours ago|||
Software is "free" though, which is why it has such a vibrant open source scene. One guy can code for a weekend and fill the screens of 5 million with something fun by Monday.

However, Once real costs are involved, participation tanks. Open source hardware, because it actually requires money to realize, has 1/10,000 the depth of open source software, if that.

Obviously everyone wants an open source AI, but virtually no one wants to fork over money, especially when the end result is others getting it free. A proper training run would require millions of people donating hundreds of dollars. Its not something one guy over a weekend can do...

Grombobulous 5 hours ago|||
Admittedly, I don’t know how the gap you’re describing gets closed.

With a lot of OSS it’s just free volunteer hours.

Compute isn’t free.

The closest thing I can think of is the idea that some group of businesses who can benefit from open models being around might fund that sort of thing. It’s just hard to imagine who they might be.

esde 42 minutes ago|||
[flagged]
cortesoft 5 hours ago||||
> I share your concerns, although we still see pretty similarly large and complex things that remain open source today.

I feel like they aren't comparable. Open source software just requires human labor, and lots of people are willing and able to share that with the world for free.

Training AI requires capital, to build and power giant datacenters. People don't donate capital at that level.

echelon 5 hours ago|||
> I am astonished on a daily basis that my Linux computer is so close to the same experience as two operating systems put out by trillion dollar companies. It even does things that those commercial alternatives don’t do.

We live in a world where you can "port" open source software to a new language (Rust) and close it up.

Linux will be ported to Rust and closed. It'll probably also be put under MIT/BSD because nobody cares anymore, but the companies will have their own internal private variants. And these will be the ones that see corporate development.

The value in open source is that it was a lot of concentrated value that was hard to copy, clone, or rip off. Now you can one shot a replacement with a few hundred bucks in tokens.

The economic value of Linux used to be billions of dollars. Soon it'll probably be closer to $0.

It's over.

> Meta “gives away” React for similar reasons: it’s more beneficial for them to have it be a standard and be able to hire people who already know it.

Nah, now you just one shot your thing. And you do it fast enough and with distribution and you win. Eventually human devs can't afford to keep competing and launching startups slower than a hyperscaler's own massively funded efforts.

This is the end of open source and the end of solo developers.

And when the ruthlessly effective models that can one shot entire business functions cost $1,000,000 per invocation. Oracle can afford to press the button to create, say, a new smartphone. But you cannot.

Just wait until devices start requiring trusted computing attestation. The ladder is going to be pulled up.

Grombobulous 5 hours ago||
There’s a lot of merit to what you’re saying, but I don’t share that high level of pessimism.

The scenario you describe is basically that software is free as in beer now. We as a corporation don’t really need to bother using GPL/Apache licensed software because we can one-shot something of our own and not deal with with giving back contributions to the open source community.

But that highway goes both directions. That means that the open source community can also one-shot their software, build more with fewer resources, or it might even just devalue proprietary software even further.

If software is so easy to make, what’s the point of keeping it proprietary? I can’t charge you $100/year for Microsoft Word if I can tell Claude Opus 9.0 to clone it with $100 worth of tokens.

kamaal 5 hours ago|||
>>We don’t really need to bother using GPL/Apache licensed software because we can one-shot something of our own and not bother with giving back contributions.

Thinking of a open weight/source AI as gcc/perl was in the 1990s is more helpful line of approach to take here.

The tool used to achieve a thing must be open.

echelon 5 hours ago|||
I suppose you're right. All software is about to be as valuable as a single jpeg you see on your Instagram feed.

What matters is physical infrastructure (datacenters), the lead on competitors / open source models, and distribution/mindshare.

cwnyth 6 hours ago|||
Ever calculate the cost of a computer in the 1960s, adjusted for inflation? Training is unfathomably expensive right now. What if a bunch of universities pooled their money? Or a bunch of nations pooled their money? Breakthroughs will eventually happen, optimization will occur, etc.

People questioned whether there could ever be a viable open source operating system, yet Linux has been a viable option for a desktop environment for decades now, and that's not to mention its ubiquitous use as a server or phone OS.

danaris 3 hours ago|||
Yes, but have you seen what's happened to hardware improvements over the past 20 years?

From the 1960s to the mid-2000s, every 10 years you'd have a big enough improvement in computing power that you could basically throw out the old computers and replace them with two new ones that were each massive improvements for the same cost (this varied, of course, from hyperbole to massive understatement). We achieved this by shrinking transistors, so we could fit more onto the die. With that, we could dramatically increase clock speeds and the amount of RAM we could cram into a machine

But then we hit the wall of physics. Things haven't stopped improving since ~2015, but they've slowed down so, so much. We've made transistors so small that there's very little more improvement we can get by continuing down that path—they're already seeing serious quantum tunneling effects that need to be adjusted for.

We can no longer assume that we can just powerscale our way out of any computation-cost problem. And breakthroughs, by their very nature, cannot be relied upon—we have no guarantee that there's even a possible way to improve our silicon to scale the way we did before, let alone that it'll be something achievable this decade, or that it'll be cost-effective.

ajam1507 5 minutes ago||
Moore's law isn't as relevant with parallel workloads. If you can keep building more lanes you don't have to worry about making faster cars.
kamaal 5 hours ago|||
Yes,

You have to start some where. Im guessing, making progress also brings in new ideas how to move further.

rsanek 42 minutes ago|||
Perhaps an idea that could work is that if you're a lab that is releasing closed source models, you have to also release open source ones. gpt-oss is now old but was decent when it came out. Nemotron is solid, especially the recent ultra release. And Nvidia especially has a much better story vs Chinese models around releasing all parts (including pre and post training data), not just the model itself.
sschueller 56 minutes ago|||
The internet, the world wide web, etc. and much of the research into new medical tech. All public money.

The fully open model Apertus (although not the frontier) was fully fundend by public Swiss institutions and a strategic national partners. I would not consider Switzerland to be a communist or totalitarian state...

kristjansson 2 hours ago|||
It’s expensive, but not unfathomably, esp in an open source setting where capable people might contribute high quality data for post training (worked problems, code reviews, feedback, …) gratis instead of at immense cost.
Fordec 5 hours ago|||
Anyone who isn't currently own a piece of who is winning by the current model. Basic disruption theory, if the game isn't going your way, change the game.
threethirtytwo 6 hours ago|||
Maybe we do p2p compute?
nullbio 5 hours ago||
This is a good idea. I've been hoping that a large player with enough social reach would create an open-source fund that everyone can contribute to, to develop a company that trains and releases open-source models at the cutting edge. We can crowdfund the training costs, and the whole world benefits.

It's the most logical solution for AI anyway, considering that it's training on humanities collective knowledge. It should be more of a public-funded and public-access resource, rather than something greedy tech companies distribute like crumbs while they use unlocked powers internally to clone all of our businesses and swallow the economy.

brcmthrowaway 6 hours ago|||
Who funds Semiconductor fabs
nullbio 5 hours ago||
When Jensen (Nvidia) was doing interviews at his recent public talks, he was asked something along the lines of: "Why release these new laptops which are a low margin market, if your other businesses are vastly more profitable?" and his answer was basically that if they can build the coolest and best technology and push the frontier, they will do it. It's not all about making tons of money. He seemed genuinely excited about the tech.

It highlights the difference between companies like Nvidia and Anthropic to me, where one is clearly all about the money and power, and the other is doing it because they genuinely want to accelerate progress and make cool stuff as the driving factor. It's no surprise therefore, that Nvidia is the worlds largest open-source contributor to AI, with over 800 open-weight models.

Of course, these models run on Nvidia hardware, so they benefit from it as a company. But with that healthy mindset, they found a way to contribute that not only benefits everyone, but also benefits themselves.

Contrast to Anthropic, who has gone the complete opposite direction. Closed off everything, restricting everything, fearmongering progress, regulatory capture attempts, the list goes on. I mean, they won't even agree on using AGENTS.md as a standard because CLAUDE.md is free marketing for them. That's the level of disgusting greed we are dealing with...

From a game theory perspective, the cooperative strategies tend to win. As a result, Nvidia has set themselves up for a lifetime. Anthropic however, is playing a strategy of winner takes all, and they're happy to see the world and the entire AI industry collapse in the process.

SXX 5 hours ago|||
Nvidia and "open source" is like opposite things. Nvidia only ever opened stuff that helps their bottom line or improve vendor lock-in.

But yeah they are good shovel seller and competitor to actually evil companies that literally wants to eat all the world chips and energy supply.

nullbio 1 hour ago|||
Strongly disagree: https://build.nvidia.com/models

Their license terms are also incredibly generous and allow commercial use, modification, etc, at no cost.

SXX 1 hour ago||
How soon do you think this generosity end if AMD or Intel or some chinese competitor would be able to provide price competetive hardware?
zozbot234 4 hours ago|||
In the open source space, the Nemotron models from nVidia are quite real. Including a Nemotron Ultra variety meant to be large enough for near-SOTA.
SXX 1 hour ago||
Nvidia not doing it out of goodness of their hearts and love to open source. If at anynpoint their CUDA vendor lock-in moat will faik because Intel or AMD manage to get working software they'll return to keep everything locked and proprietary ASAP.

Basically everything Nvidia does in open source is there to make sure their proprietary stack have a good moat and no competitor stack can catch up.

ThrowawayR2 4 hours ago||||
Amazing that anyone in 2026 still can believe in "don't be evil" marketing from multibillion dollar corporations.
nullbio 1 hour ago||
The proof is in the pudding though. I'm judging based on their actions, not on their words. They're making AI models and AI research widely accessible, including selling consumer grade hardware to run them locally, and to use open-weight models. They could have just gone all in on selling to Anthropic, OpenAI, and all the other big tech companies, but they aren't. Meanwhile, Anthropic is trying to price people out of the market, increasing their restrictions, cutting the latest model from subscription plans, etc.
cwnyth 5 hours ago|||
That's not really the impression I get from Anthropic, but if you have the links to back it up, I'm always willing to change my mind.

Compared to bizes like Oracle, Microsoft, or Facebook, I felt that Anthropic was more interested in progress (not to the neglect of business―AI training is expensive at the end of the day), but maybe I've just not seen what you've seen.

nullbio 5 hours ago||
https://clawd.rip
well_ackshually 3 hours ago||
You have an unhealthy and unreasonable obsession with the idea of CCP models, you should get that checked.
gslepak 7 hours ago||
Where does Anthropic or OpenAI winning leave us?

Dependents of an AI-megacorp for our "facts"? Our software? Our work?

It's possible these companies will become everyone's boss, and will dictate to everyone what everyone is allowed to work on, think, say, do, believe, etc.

Before Big Tech springs that trap, we must support and divert resources to open models.

operatingthetan 6 hours ago||
It is a bit surprising that the true 'big brother' type dystopic aspects of AI are not discussed that much and instead we talk about them taking all the jobs. We feed these things so much information. It could be used against us for advertising, control, or worse.
ThrustVectoring 6 hours ago|||
"All the jobs" includes those tasked by the state to commit, plan, and organize violence, it's plenty dystopian already. Like, one important reason why the military and militarized police don't engage in egregious overreach is that the people who'd be responsible live standard lives in their own society and it's hard to get high compliance for that sort of thing. Replace that relatively democratized infrastructure of thousands of intelligence analysts, mid-level management, etc with a bunch of AI agents, and a meaningful restriction on the power of the upper echelons of the state is removed.
Grombobulous 6 hours ago||||
Simple answer: taking the jobs is how it’ll impact regular people the most.

We already have personalized, algorithmic advertising and what I would call “control” all over the place: things like consolidated oligarch-owned media.

AI isn’t going to change how we are advertised to or controlled all that much, at least compared to the prospect of being put out of work or taking a huge salary cut similar to the mid-century worker who used to have a $40/hour union factory job and now works at Walmart below health insurance threshold for $15/hour.

LastTrain 5 hours ago|||
Hyperinflation is how it will impact most people. You will still have your job, at your pay, but a continually higher percentage of earnings will go to very few at the top.
wahnfrieden 5 hours ago|||
Why do you think AI won’t be a factor in how we’re controlled if our rights become stripped away and we’re increasingly surveilled? Or if violence is deployed by the state against its people with broader targeting? You seem to take for granted that nothing will change except maybe the flavor of rhetoric.
Grombobulous 5 hours ago||
Oh I definitely think it will be a factor. I don’t mean to say that it won’t.

What I’m saying is that the general public is most obviously and personally impacted by their economic situation and job prospects.

Joe Citizen who lives by the rules might not even notice that new Flock camera on his street, but he will notice if he’s laid off from his job.

saulapremium 3 hours ago||
My view is even gloomier. They won't have to coerce you, because with everything they know about you and human psychology, they will be able to manipulate you effectively enough for whatever they want.
Terr_ 6 hours ago||||
"You're absolutely right, I think you deserve to treat yourself with Mococoa, made with all-natural cocoa beans from the upper slopes of Mount Nicaragua! It's what humans like myself crave."

Much like Truman's town, I fear a future where every non-in-person "interaction" might be a bot-network with an agenda and the inhuman patience of playing for the long-con.

a1exyz 4 hours ago||
Well as we get poorer and poorer it will be less worth putting effort into advertising to us. Im guessing AI will instead focus its effort on convincing rich people of various things.
dinkumthinkum 2 hours ago|||
huh? You think using it to advertise to us is worse than taking our jobs? Why would anyone advertise to jobless people. How is what you seem to be trivializing not the central problem? I don't think controlling is high on Dario's list. But he is absolutely gleeful, he cannot even hide his arousal in his interviews in which he never looks anyone in the eye about taking people's jobs and destroy our future ... but yes, oh the agony of advertising ...
digitaltrees 5 hours ago|||
I couldn’t agree more. But what can we do? If intelligence confers a competitive advantage, which it does, the incentive are aligned against collaboration to preserve equal access. Asymmetric access is too valuable.
overgard 5 hours ago|||
I don't think we're going to be "dependent", because I can't really think of anyone that "needs" this stuff (well, unless you're like attempting to build a business off skills you don't have). I guess this really comes down to if you believe the productivity story. I don't. I think there are some gains, but the evidence that isn't just anecdotes from vibe coders seems to be modest.
oneneptune 5 hours ago||
... and building a business off of skills you don't have based on a strategy already exists! You use capital to pay humans that do have the skills.

Or capital a comparable sum to pay an AI to approximate the skills of humans I guess is the proposed future?

hecanjog 5 hours ago|||
Or just opt out... you don't have to use these things.
hirako2000 5 hours ago|||
It works at the individual level but won't if mass adoption happens.

The mechanism will become like taxes, you don't have to use public services thus pay those taxes, unless most people comply as it's easy to oppress those who don't.

The parallel isn't about legitimacy, but Mechanism. Some companies already oblige employees to use AI to deliver their work. In a near future we may see jobs seekers registering their AI ID for companies to decide which humans qualify to be plugged into the compensation system, at what rate, and usage conditions to avoid terminations.

Food delivery systems already show a glimpse of how it could look like.

steelframe 5 hours ago||||
I can't even manually resolve the merge conflicts alone that happen between my code and that of everyone else submitting code at agent speed in my team's repo. So long as I have financial obligations toward my family, I cannot opt out. I must use these things.
digitaltrees 5 hours ago||||
Not that simple. If I opt out and others don’t, and it confers a competitive advantage they win and I lose.
bot403 5 hours ago||||
At this point, or perhaps not too far off it's like opting out of electricity, or the automobile.

Sure you can. But you're going to have a bad time.

kdheiwns 5 hours ago||
And then the Amish see the world around them using electricity and cars and think, "Yep, I'm happier without that." And they're one of the few groups on earth with a growing population, so they're doing something right.
digitaltrees 5 hours ago||
1. Your assumption that a growing population is the metric of success is questionable. A population that grows but is subject to famine, epidemics, and natural disasters because they haven’t developed the scientific and technological capacity to escape the existential risks of the physical world is living on borrowed time. Not saying I agree with that, and I would actually agree that there is merit to the Amish hypothesis that a certain existence is more compatible with individual and societal fulfillment. But there are obvious counterpoints.

2. The Amish are not a good example because AI will confer an advantage to those that control access to it that has never existed.

rustcleaner 4 hours ago||
>Your assumption that a growing population is the metric of success is questionable.

It's a better measure than GDP/S&P/401(k) line-go-up especially [re: America] when the native Euro-based population has been aging and dropping for decades, once you strip away all the post Hart-Cellar immigrant lineages.

digitaltrees 3 hours ago||
What are hart-cellar immigrant lineages? And why is that in anyway relevant?

Let’s play a thought experiment.

Let’s say we have a million people that are so technically sophisticated that they are a space faring civilization capable of seeding the universe with living ecosystems capable of perpetuating life and evolutionary processes. But they are entirely infertile and will never give birth to another individual of their species.

And we have another population that doubles every single year but is incapable of leaving their home planet.

Which one is more valuable?

It depends on what your measure of value is, but if it is to maximize the amount of life in the universe, then population growth is not the right metric, expansion of life through technological means is the more appropriate metric.

sandcat_ 5 hours ago|||
Eh, they’ll learn soon enough there’s a limit to their power, unless they somehow start acquiring munitions. There’s a reason the electricity companies and other utilities didn’t take over the economy, despite now being essential.
ben_w 5 hours ago|||
One of the usual claimed benefits of open source software, is that if you find a bug, you can fix it.

Would be nice if someone figured out how to properly debug a model. Without that? OK, so you have your own open source base model trained on your preferred document set that excluded whatever you think is propaganda, and your own open source RLHF training set based on the judgement of whoever you think is a good egg, and so on.

Last I checked, nobody yet knows how to define a precise rule for automatically checking which of two models made this way is aligned better with whatever your standards are.

The metaphor would be like if we knew what a CPU was but had no idea how to do either chip design or formal verification, and instead randomly mutated the connections between transistors until our test set of 2^16 randomly selected pairs of 32-bit numbers only had one error under addition and two under multiplication.

Worse, because we're making them this way, you have to be a fairly big corporation even when you take shortcuts like DeepSeek did.

And note that I'm not disagreeing about the systemic risk that comes if these models become dictators: people are currently demonstrating they're very eager to outsource their own thinking to these models even when they ought to know better, and corporations are currently demonstrating they're very eager to force workers to use them even when they're mediocre and workers spend half the time they might save from a more competent model just fixing the damage done by their current meh-ness: https://www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/06/10/brit-worker...

malux85 6 hours ago||
> Dependents of an AI-megacorp for our "facts"? Our software? Our work?

It's worse than this, it's more like our thinking. There's already plummetting math grades [1], handing over our thinking to AI megacorps where there's likely to be a monopoly or duopoly is an incredibly dangerous thing for humanity as a whole.

[1] https://www.dailycal.org/news/campus/academics/failing-grade...

necovek 4 hours ago|||
A few confounding factors come up right away: one of professors removed final project which increased grades; due to less appealing CS career, you do not get the best students anymore: another professor is not a fan of curving so perhaps he just accidentally gave harder tests; math prep for CS courses happened over the last 15 years not last 2 where LLMs have become ubiquitous; many failed because they were caught using LLMs when not allowed...

So really, two professors' gut feel about what the reasons are and not backed by much.

george_max 6 hours ago||||
If humanity is over-reliant on frontier labs' models to perform work, the result is a dependence on the actual intelligence of these models -- not on human intelligence. This could be a small reason, on top of many others, why investors are throwing hundreds of billions of dollars a bit "carelessly" to these labs. It's fascinating seeing the models do the "hard work" (the deep, challenging thinking) for you.

The conundrum which tricks me though - is this a net negative or a positive? If humans are less intelligent, but their output is 2-3 times more intelligent (with AI), what's the result? At what point do we, as humans, stop comprehending anything and give all intelligent work to the neural nets?

And if that does happen, could we live in a society where no work, or at least a significantly less amount of work, is needed? To me, it seems like a dystopian net positive.

It might seem far-fetched to ask these, but I think these questions are getting more prevalent by the day.

nerfbatplz 6 hours ago|||
If there was a way to guarantee that every human would have equal access to external intelligence then it would be hard to argue against it but everyone knows that the US oligopoly will do everything they can to ensure that no one else has the keys to the kingdom.

Just listen to what the SV ownership class says out loud. They openly discuss how China cannot "win the AI arms race" and how China's development is existential. Existential to who? It's impossible to fully subjugate people with agency.

analog31 6 hours ago||||
It's not just a dependence on the intelligence of the models, but also their intentions, as programmed by their owners.

A friend of mine asked me if I was optimistic about AI. I told him, it depends on who owns it. If the people own it, I'm optimistic. If the oligarchs own it, I'm pessimistic.

ransom1538 6 hours ago|||
I am going to try to cheer you up. Hear me out. One day, not long from now, I am going to buy a humanoid bot for 40k. This human android will 1) get my groceries, 2) make my elderly parents meals, 3) go to the backyard and plant 1 acre of corn, 4) paint my neighbors house. 5) get the kids from school 6) change my oil.

What will happen? Massive. Deflation. What will you pay for an oil change? Corn? Meals? Everything is about to be free. But tokens will be expensive!! Sure but, you wont do white collar work anymore so it wont matter what tokens cost.

dartharva 6 hours ago|||
Indeed, for work and software most are already beholden to Microsoft and Google. This is something wayy more.
abhinavsharma 6 hours ago||
Open-source AI can, by definition, never "win". AI is just hillclimbing today, and closed labs can always absorb everything the open world does and build upon it.

It doesn't really matter for most use cases, because the way AI is working is capability saturation. https://www.delanceyukschoolschesschallenge.com/the-rising-t...

The only exception to this is fields that are inherently adversarial (to nature or others) and an edge relative to competition matters.

andai 3 hours ago||
They win when they hit saturation for a common task, which is already happening. The second big win will be when the average person can run it on their own hardware.
sandcat_ 4 hours ago|||
Those closed labs need to justify the investment still, and as we approach stagnation in model capabilities that’s harder and harder. Right now Fable and Mythos are cutting edge, but soon enough they’ll be commodities. And for every company like OpenAI/Anthropic that wants to get ahead with a SOTA model, there’ll be a hundred companies aiming to commoditize their complements.
ux266478 3 hours ago|||
AllegroLisp is very far behind SBCL.
jongjong 5 hours ago|||
Open source models don't need to be anywhere near as good as Claude Mythos or even Claude Sonnet to 'win'.

Open source 'winning' just means that there exists at least one open source alternative to closed models which is as good as, say, GPT 4... I mean, we're essentially there already with Google Gemma models.

As a software engineer, I didn't notice any difference in my productivity since Sonnet. Of course Opus is better and I'm sure Fable is better yet, but we're already hitting diminishing returns in terms of economic value.

I went from Cursor running one of the earlier GPT models to Claude Code on Sonnet and that was essentially a 5x productivity boost for me. Before Claude Code, I only used AI for small snippets. With Claude Code + Sonnet, I could trust it for entire sub-tasks... But I still don't trust Opus with full end-to-end features. I'm not sure it will ever get there. It probably doesn't need to.

Companies need software engineers to have a certain moderately high level of talent but above that level, they really don't care AT ALL. They don't even notice the difference, even if the gap is significant.

cortesoft 5 hours ago|||
> Open source 'winning' just means that there exists at least one open source alternative to closed models which is as good as, say, GPT 4... I mean, we're essentially there already with Google Gemma models.

Is this really true? We just don't know what the maximum capability of AI is. If it turns out AI can be as intelligent and capable as something like Data from Star Trek, no one is going to be thinking GPT 4 is good enough.

kamaal 2 hours ago|||
>>We just don't know what the maximum capability of AI is

For all theory purposes there is no limit. Thats what the latest loop engineering trend is about, you are asking AI to find solutions to a problem going by listing steps, and if solution not found in those steps, to treat each step as a separate problem and repeat the process until the master solution to the master problem is found.

Once a solution is found, or new data/insights are generated through this process, the LLM can be trained on this. So in theory you can just keep going like this forever.

Secondly. This is as close to agency you can build inside a machine.

Practically speaking, hardware is a limit. But that can scale up with time.

So we are already looking at some kind of runaway intelligence even if not sentient.

jongjong 5 hours ago|||
It could get really smart but I'm confident in my thesis that surplus intelligence beyond a certain level doesn't yield any real economic benefits.

At scale, I can see a benefit in terms of being able to process large amounts of data intelligently to gain a competitive advantage in terms of accruing nominal gains but I think that as long as AI is pursuing dollars, those gains won't translate to real value to the people who control the AI. At best, will translate to more political control; but with added risks and threats too. I suspect it will look more like controlled decline with a small number of entities getting an increasingly large slice of a rapidly shrinking pie.

I think AI may just figure out really complex ways to legally steal people's money. It will probably look all legit on the surface, it will look like the majority of people are just freakishly unlucky and a tiny number of elites are just extremely lucky... But it will be AI behind the scenes orchestrating seemingly random events; choosing who gets lucky and who doesn't.

Might end up literally like a game of monopoly. One player could dominate the game and start receiving all the money but, if you look at the big picture, none of the players are doing anything economically useful; just sitting around a board and moving pieces of paper amongst each other.

It's like the industrial revolution. Many kings and emperors did not like the idea of industrialization because they were already living a luxurious life and understood that it would not benefit them and would only create risks and problems for them personally. They could already afford as many human servants than they needed, what was the point of replacing them with machines to provide the same service they already received? It would give their servants more free time? To an emperor, that would have sounded more like a problem than a solution. It's a bit like that with AI. The people who control AI won't benefit from it beyond what they already have. If it doesn't serve a social cause then it serves nobody.

zozbot234 3 hours ago|||
The Gemma models are tiny, not really comparable to DeepSeek Pro, Kimi or GLM. But the broader point stands.
kamaal 5 hours ago|||
>>AI is just hillclimbing today

That's what the Fable harness felt like. You give it a goal and it could try to get there through the shortest path given the tree of possibilities to get there. Iteratively, or recursively.

Perhaps if we make a open coding AI, the design must be along these lines. Something that's easy to train, and serve from local machines. Albeit has loop / recursive hill climbing facilities built it. That way the model gradually keeps moving towards the solutions, in iterations/recursions.

Once this is done, other multi modal things could be pursued.

dakolli 5 hours ago||
[flagged]
sho 5 hours ago|||
I don't think insulting people is a great way to contribute. Not everyone who sees things differently than you has "psychosis".

Your reflexively negative comments on anything relating to AI are as insight-free as they are numerous; it's all just vague shitting-on without even a hook or argument that could be engaged with and debated. It's pretty tiring, honestly. If you really think your point of view is valuable and others should pay attention to it, rather than just filtering it out like the trollish noise it usually is, why don't you put a little more effort in?

dakolli 40 minutes ago||
I'll do better fo sho
kamaal 5 hours ago|||
Its the closest terminology we have to describe that process.

https://github.com/cobusgreyling/loop-engineering

Its hard to come up with new names for novel processes, you mostly reuse what is close enough and well known.

dakolli 5 hours ago||
Loop engineering, whatever that is, is obviously just a way to get people to increase the amount of tokens required per task/request. They did the same thing with Ralph loops, they just need more revenue. Just write your code and use it to search and clarify, it can't build that magical thing you think it can.
kamaal 5 hours ago||
The heuristic is this-

Given a problem P-

1. Provide a list(S) of solutions(S1, S2 ... SN) ordered in the most efficient(For some definition of efficiency) implementation means possible.

2. Execute S1, ... SN.

3. If P is fixed by a solution in the list, halt.

4. Else for each S1 ... SN , execute steps 1 through 4 until, all dependencies and sub problems are resolved to eventually solve P.

This obviously needs lots of tokens, which is all the more reason why we need AI to run locally on our machines.

gamander2 3 hours ago||
[dead]
george_max 7 hours ago||
With open-weight AI, there might not be an incentive to put large sums of capital towards training / research. There might be a donation fund of some sorts, but it certainly won't reach the level of fundraising that the frontier labs are receiving.

Because of this, I think it might not be possible to have AI *only* open-weight; major players like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google will likely stay for good, with better models than open-source versions.

I think it might look something like Photoshop & GIMP, with Photoshop being a frontier lab, and GIMP being the open-weight model. GIMP is decent for many different image editing workflows, but Photoshop is just better.

I would definitely prefer to have an open-weight model better than frontier labs'. Though I don't think it's possible.

thewebguyd 7 hours ago||
I think the same, but I also think that local AI is actually inevitable, even if not open source models. I wouldn't be surprised to see OpenAI and others release an on-prem product. Whether that's effectively an appliance rack, or some other form, people (large companies) are going to want to run inference locally for data sovereignty & cost controls. Especially if we get to a point where companies want AI integrated into manufacturing and other air-gapped networks.
cocoa19 6 hours ago|||
We already have this. We don't need Mythos to categorize images on my phone. A small dedicated model would do.
george_max 7 hours ago|||
I do believe that if OpenAI and others release an open-weight model that is better or on par with their frontier variants, it might ruin their primary business model.

That is, of course, unless they develop their own hardware specifically to run this open model. But, that does ruin the point of open models.

thewebguyd 7 hours ago||
When/if gains slow down, I can definitely see branching out into hardware to sell for on-prem inference once the models can be etched into the silicon with hard wired weight chips. I'd guess maybe at least 5+ years away from that though.
zozbot234 3 hours ago|||
> Because of this, I think it might not be possible to have AI only open-weight; major players like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google will likely stay for good, with better models than open-source versions.

There's a more fundamental reason for this: some AI models are large enough that they can plausibly only be reasonably run in a state-of-the-art hyperscale datacenter. Open sourcing such models would be largely pointless. Note that this would be a significantly larger scale than even the largest open models available today, one that precludes even doing inference slowly on a small-scale, cheap makeshift cluster. But it's plausible that Fable is there already.

pennomi 6 hours ago|||
Perhaps, unless there is a way for users to donate compute to training, folding@home style. I don’t see how that could be practical though.
kelnos 5 hours ago|||
Yeah I think that's a decent analog (Photoshop & GIMP). We're in a sort of "rapid expansion" phase right now, but unless the tech behind "AI" really evolves, better and better models will be harder to come by, with diminishing returns.

Even if the GIMP of LLMs is only 80% as good as the VC-funded stuff, that will still be plenty useful for lots of people.

And I think just having the option to use open source models is a win, even if it turns out to be true they'll never be quite as good as the proprietary ones.

hirako2000 5 hours ago|||
Zoom out. It's a matter of time the trillion valuations will be deemed senseless, only once it will prove inpossible to extract trillions from consumers.

In the meanwhile, and regardless, software optimisations coupled with hardware continuing to scale, we will end up, soon enough, with some open weight that run on a mobile device with greater capabilities than Fable.

rustcleaner 4 hours ago||
>only once it will prove inpossible [sic] to extract trillions from consumers.

I am spreading a message of peace and sovereignty:

Never subscribe. Never. Subscribe. Ever.

Starve them out. Make their lenders take 95% haircuts.

Just don't subscribe, whatever you do!

LPisGood 7 hours ago|||
That is fantastic news then, if commercial product products will always be better than open source, and open source products will continue to get better
george_max 7 hours ago||
Agreed. The only "issue" is that commercial products will always be ahead, with less friction for most users. This ultimately results in most people using these over open-weight variants. Users might not even be aware that the open-model variants exist. Similar to Windows / MacOS and Linux.
kelnos 5 hours ago||
In a way that's ok, though? I run Linux on my laptop, and in some ways it's better than Windows or macOS, and in other ways it's lacking. But that's fine; the existence of Windows and macOS doesn't mean I can't run Linux, and doesn't mean I have a worse experience.

(Yet; I do worry about future required hardware attestation for basic things, but that's another issue.)

tonyhart7 6 hours ago|||
the moat is in hardware, without capital intensive acquisition how tf they going to get that money ?????

I learn it hard from prusa 3d printer open model

intothemild 44 minutes ago||
Well. Right now buying hardware to run your own models tops off at about 32gb VRAM at any price point that's not insane. Sure you can get a Mac mini, or a PC equivalent. But the problem is RAM.

More RAM means bigger models, which means smarter models.

Which is why Qwen and Gemma have been so interesting to a lot of us who run our own... Now 32gb VRAM isn't so bad, as these models can be run on that with decent results.

Where this gets interesting is in a couple years, when all the A100, etc, all the Enterprise hardware hits eBay.

bbor 6 hours ago||
Which is the nearterm future that we must demand: a stop to the amounts of capital flowing to ASI research. Join me, Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI’s-founding-charter in saying the obvious, y’all; Pause AI, now.

It should be clear by now that there’s a whole universe of work to do with the models we have today, from studying to securing to ‘harness’ing. There are tons of economic benefits to be reaped already, if applied carefully. Doesn’t that sound nicer than rolling the dice with the lives of trillions?

mufufu 6 hours ago||
Lives of trillions?
reilly3000 6 hours ago||
Current and possible future populations?
avaer 7 hours ago||
I agree with sentiment and mission, but the goal is inseparable from politics at this point.

Being Open Source (tm) will not protect you from the government/others imposing controls on your silicon or what it is allowed to do, which is already happening around the world.

Even having the models be open source won't fix the regulation or economic incentives. Which is not something you can compress into a couple of paragraphs.

AI is civilizational infrastructure and it needs civilizational solutions. Not just source.

Atlas667 5 hours ago|
Monopoly capitalism and finance capitalism took reigns of markets more than a century ago. The state serves these huge interests.

Everybody knows AI firms pirated to train, nothing will come of it. A plain example of classist application of law.

The reason for the willy nilly application of their own laws will always be 'national security', of course, since they own infrastructure their interests are a national security.

So tech may shake things up whenever it makes great leaps, but finance capitalism quickly adapts and absorbs the waves.

rustcleaner 4 hours ago||
No state, anywhere, has the right to rule or even exist.

All states are terroristic parasite gangs, all states [no exceptions].

Your state exists because there is no one else capable of challenging it [no outsider or internal armed militia].

Your state is merely the gang which reigns supreme in your territory - constitutions, democracy, and other grievance pressure relief systems be damned.

You don't get to vote or serve as juror because the system is somehow moral or holy, you get to vote because in historical systems lacking those pressure relief measures the aristocracy tended to be [literally] decapitated on a regular basis.

Democratic measures exist to bribe and persuade your acquiescence so you don't get together with your aggrieved neighbours and go lop heads off ["it's just the rules of the game, you can try again in 2/4/6 more years :^)"].

Seeing politics from this lens should demystify so many seemingly confusing actions and outcomes, it's why no matter how much you vote you never actually "win" and even if you do... it's in such impotent and monkey's paw ways.

weregiraffe 2 hours ago||
>No state, anywhere, has the right to rule or even exist.

No person has an inherent right to exist either. Rights, just like states, or property, or gender, are social constructs. They exist because enough people believe they exist and behave accordingly.

justindotdev 28 minutes ago||
we could've been fine with the sole existence of AI if the organizations providing them weren't greedy and rug-pullers. anthropic could've been loved by all if it acted towards the benefit of humanity. as intelligent system continue to become smarter, close or beyond mythos level, what now? with the 'community-driven' mindset we have, is the future really going to be safe? probably not we just need a company that develops, serves, maintains, these models the right way, priced fairly that benefits the user and the company.
jpalomaki 38 minutes ago||
Isn't training material the biggest problem for truly open source LLMs (such that could compete with top tier models)? The computation part can be solved with money, but compiling a comprehensive training set that could be freely shared and free of copyright issues is pretty much impossible.
reedciccio 17 minutes ago||
You don't need to have fully copyright-unencumbered datasets to build Open Source AI, as that (as you say) would be impossible. https://opensource.org/ai
ajdegol 29 minutes ago||
I wonder if we could gamify and democratise it somehow, like fold-at-home and wikipedia...

I've been training a teeny specialised model to run in a browser on a phone to detect harmonium notes played in a song (harmonium turns out is a pita, another story for another day), getting good labelled data is _all_ of the hard work.

That being said, maybe for cheap inference, using a big model to train something ultra-suited for the task at hand might be how we could handle local inference; thinking language specific models.

blueblisters 3 hours ago|
I'm assuming this is popular because of Fable restrictions. AFAIK, open source is not excluded from ITAR / EAR restrictions (or other export restriction in other countries).

So the real solution you're looking for is technology that can't be arbitrarily gatekept by a sovereign nation.

cududa 2 hours ago|
I’ve been exceptionally displeased with Claude Code since end of February and switched completely to Codex in April. The blasé way in which one person (Borris) capriciously changes the system prompt multiple times a day, also no longer writing his own prompts (whatever that means).

That, the 5 different secret levers you have to pull to make it not stupid, the fact you hs e to go to the guy’s twitter account to find all the un-dumbing features and flags that aren’t documented anywhere else. That they decrease thinking budgets silently when they run out of compute instead of announcing the rationing, and gaslighting users at every step of discovery. The fact that internally they have their own coding harness and don’t use Claude Code primarily. The lack of formal evals and consideration for millions of users collective hundreds of millions of hours of investment in their workflows — that’s all off the top of my head, let me tell you how I really feel about what they did to Claude Code..

I adore gpt5.5 and maintain my own codex fork - but I have no idea how long I’ll get this performance / cost - I know it won’t be forever. I’d like to know precisely how much it’ll cost in hardware to run a gpt5.5 open source model locally. Hell a lifetime license to a model I can run locally is also be open to.

But I like building my own tools, from software to physical shop tools. I like being able to rely on my tools.

More responding here to the assertion that this is blowing up due to Fable.

More comments...