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Posted by rdmuser 9 hours ago

Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2(tck.mn)
219 points | 65 commentspage 2
xdertz 7 hours ago|
> the game used several distinct pseudorandom number generators, to prevent e.g. randomness within a combat from influencing future card rewards.

Why is this important? Feels like fixing what seems to be a non-issue lead to a bunch of real issues.

With a good RNG it should not be possible to predict future numbers based on past numbers so players cannot manipulate card rewards in their favour based on combat actions, right?

vintermann 6 hours ago||
I don't think it's deliberate RNG manipulation they worry about. It's a single player (or coop) game after all.

However, one of their design goals is that people playing on the same seed should have roughly the same game, it should feel "fair". Some things you probably want to be fairly random, for instance your card choices can depend on what cards you chose before. But it's also important that people choosing the exact same cards (and taking the same path, maybe?) should be offered the same options.

In STS1, the order of relics was fixed from the start as I recall. So if you skipped a shop, you'd get exactly the same relics in the next shop as you would have in the one you skipped. Good for seed fairness, but a little odd.

bulbar 6 hours ago|||
For a singular seed, they wanted the resulting run to be stable in the sense that small deviations in decision making does not result in a vastly different result (as far as random events are concerned)

Imagine the game of two players having the same state X. While combat, one player would trigger a random action, the other doesn't. After the combat, both should still get the same randomized reward options. This wouldn't work with just a singular RNG.

myrmidon 6 hours ago||
This is exactly it.

This way, you can see how e.g. players of different skill level navigate the "same" run (same seed), without everything diverging completely on the very first (meaninglessly small) combat choice.

eig 7 hours ago|||
The game stores and allows you to see the RNG seed that controls the run's events and layout. The developers want players to be able to share seeds that produce interesting runs.

That requirement is what made this problem difficult for the devs to solve.

margalabargala 6 hours ago||
This shouldn't actually be difficult to solve though.

The issue is that knowing the offset of seeds helps predict outputs.

Instead of calling RNG(seed+hash(string)) 10x, make one RNG(seed) and call that 10 times to get random seeds for your 10 rngs. Now you have perfect determinism and no correlation.

Arcorann 6 hours ago|||
My first solution was RNG(hash(seed.toString() + string)), which would get rid of the correlation while still being deterministic based on the seed.

It's also more robust than calling RNG 10 times since if you use the same algorithm to seed as for the RNG proper then you will get the same sequences in each instance, just offset.

AlotOfReading 5 hours ago|||
That's assuming the game initialization order is deterministic. Using the hash of the combined state of seed and string avoids that assumption without giving up determinism.
margalabargala 3 hours ago||
Yeah true. That's even better.

Point being, the current problematic state of the game is trivially fixable in multiple ways that require half a second's thought (once being aware of the problem).

zemo 4 hours ago|||
> With a good RNG it should not be possible to predict future numbers based on past numbers so players cannot manipulate card rewards in their favour based on combat actions, right?

I think you're overlooking the distinction between seeded and unseeded runs. An unseeded run is a run in which the player enters the game not knowing what the seed of the RNG is and not being able to pick it (this is the default mode). A seeded run is where the player provides the RNG seed. Generally, things like unlocks and steam achievements can only be earned on unseeded runs, but players want to be able to play seeded runs anyway. Of course all runs have an RNG seed: an unseeded run is when the seed is itself chosen at random, a seeded run is when the player specifies the seed.

Imagine a game with a standard deck of cards played over several rounds, where your opponent performs actions in response to your actions. The deck of cards is shuffled pseudo-randomly between every round. Every time you make a move, your opponent has N valid moves, and picks between them pseudo-randomly.

Players play a seeded run because they want to retry the same set of challenges, because they are asking themselves "if I had done this, would I have won" or "if I had done this, what would have happened".

So in this example, given a known seed: in round 1, my cards are shuffled this way, and in round 2, my cards a shuffled this other way, regardless of which moves I make in round 1.

If the opponent picks its response using the same RNG that shuffles the deck, the players actions in round 1 would change the shuffling of the deck in round 2. This would change the design parameters of what a seeded run means: it's no longer giving the guarantee "the deck is shuffled in the same way in round 2 regardless of what you do in round 1", which is the experience the designer wants to create and what the players want to play. Players might, e.g., say "who can get the highest score on this seed", they might search for the easiest or most difficult seeds, or they might search for seeds where particularly unlikely sequences of events are guaranteed to occur, because perhaps this sequence of events is so unlikely that a human would have to play a hundred million games to witness that sequence organically, and people want to see that sequence of events because it's interesting in some way. It's designed this way so that if you play the same seed, certain random events play out the same way, i.e., non-randomly.

rcxdude 5 hours ago|||
Some degree of stability in seeds is desirable, partly because of the compatitive elements (multiple players playing the same seed should have roughly the same game), but also when updating the game is means that if they tweak one area the rest of the seed will stay roughly the same. (Maybe less important for games with short runs compared to sandbox games like Minecraft where the world might be generated by very different versions if the game and you don't want blatent seams when it happens)
hannasanarion 5 hours ago|||
You're confusing RNG manipulation (really clearly bad, basically cheating by removing the randomness from the game) from RNG prediction (less bad but still unfun, being able to predict future random states).

You can be safe from RNG manipulation while still suffering from RNG prediction. Players can't modify the events that are going to happen, but if they can predict them, it's still a problem.

The situation is like there's a bug in the blackjack table where, instead of shuffling the whole shoe together, each deck in it was shuffled on its own in the same way and then the identical decks are stacked together. Once you've seen 52 cards, you know the repeating pattern and can play with perfect or near-perfect knowledge of what's about to be dealt.

torgoguys 7 hours ago|||
Because they appear to have a curious way of doing their saves. From the article:

>The way Slay the Spire allows you to save and resume runs is by storing the total number of times each RNG has been called, and then calling each RNG that many times (throwing away the result) whenever a save file is loaded.

Depending on what the game is like (I know nothing about it), that could make sense, even if it is inelegant.

hannasanarion 5 hours ago||
That's just to restore the internal state when you reload your save file, so that, for instnace, if you save and quit while looking at a set of card rewards, but haven't made your choice yet, when you reload, you will see the same set of rewards (you can't just reload your save to reroll).

This doesn't really have any impact on the gameplay, and isn't related to the correlation problem, it's just a constraint on the class of RNG algorithms in use, they need to be deterministic with recoverable state.

swiftcoder 4 hours ago|||
> With a good RNG it should not be possible to predict future numbers based on past numbers

Since they are using the built-in RNG, it is trivial to predict if you know (or can guess) the seed: just run the same RNG a few steps ahead.

For something like a tool-assisted speed run, this is very exploitable to setup optimal runs

bzax 7 hours ago|||
You could observe future random numbers by taking combat actions, and then reset to the start of the fight and play a line which consumes fewer random numbers in order to manipulate your card rewards. Maybe you could generate the card reward at the start of the fight, but what if they play a card which impacts the card reward, e.g. by creating an extra card reward.
iNic 7 hours ago|||
For things like daily runs / seeded runs part of the fun is getting the same card rewards.
yccs27 7 hours ago||
I guess it's mainly a limit to savescumming.
nimih 53 minutes ago||
It's in fact the opposite: an intentional design choice to make save scumming (edit: and by extension, sharing specific rng seeds) more effective for people who like doing it. They made a similar design choice with how save/restore works, in that it resets the current encounter, which allows players a limited ability to undo/backtrack if they make a mistake.
handoflixue 5 hours ago||
"Appendix: How?" is a neat walkthrough of discovering this by trying to find a specific seed, and learning that the correlated randomness made the outcome he was searching for vanishingly rare.
OskarS 6 hours ago||
I've always thought that random number generators are one of the best examples of Hyrum's law ("all observable behaviours are part of your API"): once you release a random number generators that either uses a default seed or allows you to seed it, you can't ever change it, it's a huge breach of backwards compatibility. Imagine if you did a Minecraft style game that relied on the behaviour of some PRNG, and then you changed the implementation? The entire game will break. That's why GNU libc still uses a terrible LCG for rand() despite the fact that much better generators exist: they can't ever fix it, because srand() exists and people rely on it.

On the other hand, it's STUPENDOUSLY useful to have "default" random functionality in your core library, for the "just give me a random number" or "shuffle this array, I don't care how" users, who don't really care about the details. But if you do that: always seed it with some external entropy (current time or /dev/random or whatever), don't even allow users to seed it. That means you can improve it in the future, because users already can't ever rely on the sequence. If the users do want to rely on the sequence, they should have to specify the exact engine they want.

TL;DR: System.Random in C# should not ever have been seedable, big mistake.

stevekemp 5 hours ago||
I had a similar realization recently; I was writing a compiler so I implemented a "random" function as part of the runtime.

To avoid regression I have some simple code examples I compile and execute, and I compare their output to "known good" versions.

I reached a point where I wanted to write a "sort array" routine and my immediate thought was to generate an array of 50 random numbers, sort them, and print them. But of course that wouldn't give me predictable output for my test-driver.

In the end I decided I'd do that when run interactively, but for testing purposes I'd just sort the characters in a string "The quick brown fox .." and while it isn't super-convincing it's enough to let me see regressions in my sorting function and/or array indexing runtime code.

SonOfLilit 4 hours ago||
That's a bad example to use because it has very few repetitions (only the spaces I think?) and the key doesn't have different equivalent values so you can't test that you're order-preserving (or not).

But ideally sort is something you want to test with something like quickcheck/hypothesis, not gold tests (and I say that as probably the world's number 1 proponent of gold tests).

FromTheFirstIn 6 hours ago|||
If you’ve played the game it makes sense to have the seed be settable and shareable. In Slay the Spire it can be exciting to have an outrageously unlikely starting state or early option, and in order for players to share this with each other the seed has to be user controlled. It’s a big part of what gives the game its community!
account42 5 hours ago||
GP isn't saying you should never have seedable random generators, just that they should not be part of the standard library because then the API promise is no longer that you get random numbers but that you get a very specific sequence of numbers which fixes the implementation as part of the API contract.
OskarS 2 hours ago||
They can certainly be part of the standard library, it's just that you have to make the programmer be specific: it's a bad idea `new Random(seed)`, because you can then never update the `Random` class, and you might get stuck with a terrible default forever. But having a `new Xoshiro256(seed)` is a fine thing to have in your standard lib, given that quality PRNGs are such a common need.
haeseong 6 hours ago||
That split is exactly what .NET 6 did. The parameterless Random switched to xoshiro256*, but new Random(seed) stays pinned to the old Numerical Recipes subtractive generator so historical seeds still reproduce, and that legacy generator is the affine one whose first output is linear in abs(seed), which is the whole root cause of this bug.
shmoil 4 hours ago||
>> However, I am confident that Mega Crit will address this issue.

They did not address it in StS1, exactly the same bugs were reported there. I would not be very hopeful. They did not even change their RNG to something better, like MT.

Straw 1 hour ago||
MT is actually quite a poor (and slow) RNG! PCG32 suggested in the article has much better randomness, state size, and speed.
scraptor 3 hours ago||
This time it has a major impact on the possible RNG outcomes even for a player who doesn't know about the bug, and it was caught much earlier in development before the permanent stability of existing seeds was guaranteed.
cbondurant 6 hours ago||
The trash heap event gave me the same relic the first 3 times in a row that I got it before it gave me anything else. I wonder that's another example of this correlation?

I hope the StS team is made aware of this and is able to make the earlier outcomes a bit more evenly spread, so that the distribution matches more closely with what people would intuit them to be.

FromTheFirstIn 6 hours ago|
It always gives me Clash :(
RobRivera 4 hours ago||
I need to play this game as a case study.
0xdecrypt 6 hours ago||
Really interesting read. The fact that Rebound is literally impossible to get is hilarious and completely unexpected.
abstractcontrol 6 hours ago||
Why don't they just pass the time into the RNG in order to randomize it instead of using fixed seeds?
ixwt 6 hours ago||
People often want to share their seeds so that players can play the same game they did. If there was an interesting series of results for example, which gave you a good set of cards.

Minecraft does this too with world generation for example.

rcxdude 5 hours ago|||
It's a big thing for competition. In a procedural game there's a lot of variation between seeds so the only 'fair' way is to start with the same seed.

(Generally, when you just press 'start game', you'll get a truly random seed, but then you can also put that seed in again to get the same RNG).

wbobeirne 6 hours ago||
Being able to share and replay seeds is a big part of the StS community.
sltkr 4 hours ago||
The post suggests replacing the linear congruential generator (LCG) with a permuted congruential generator (PCG). The latter has more random-looking output.

Another solution is to switch to a cryptographic hash function. For example, using sha256(seed || event type || counter) only requires storing seeds and counters in the save game.

This has several benefits:

  - You can find efficient implementations on all platforms without having to roll your own.
  - Gives the same output on all platforms by design.
  - Output is practically indistinguishable from randomness by design.
The main downside is that sha256 is significantly slower than any non-cryptographic PRNG, but considering how few random numbers you need during a typical game, this doesn't really matter.
ASalazarMX 32 minutes ago||
Sincerely blows my mind to see someone recommend cryptography to generate pseudorandom numbers. It speaks volumes of how fast computers are now, and how used we are to waste that power.

Slay the Spyre is a rogue deck builder, the PRNG of Windows Freecell (3.11) would be good enough for it.

Edit: From https://github.com/joshuamkite/freecell

> Microsoft FreeCell RNG Algorithm: Uses seeded random number generator (seed = (seed * 214013 + 2531011) & 0x7FFFFFFF) for reproducible deals (games numbered 1-1,000,000)

j_w 2 hours ago||
Well the .NET random is bad.

It seems really the problem is twofold: the reference is from 1992 and cites a 1981 publication's reference to an unpublished 1958 generator. Not to say that being old makes the algorithm bad, but it's a bad implementation of an algorithm that already is questionable given more recent research.

I'll go section by section: > //Apparently the range [1..55] is special (Knuth) and so we're wasting the 0'th position.

This is a silly comment. Knuth explicitly states that "24 and 55 in this definition were not chosen at random; they are special values that happen to define a sequence whose least significant bits, {Xn mod 2), will have a period of length 2^55 - 1. Therefore the sequence (Xn) must have a period at least this long."

Then you have the initial seeding of the LCG with with a = 21 and m = 55, which is interesting. Numerical Recipes uses those values, but Knuth whom they got the algorithm from does not suggest them. The closest Knuth suggests is 24 and 55. This suggestion is from 1981, so the viability is questionable (and Knuth clearly states that this is an unpublished algorithm from 1958 - Numerical Recipes itself questions the quality).

Then they use 21 for inextp - this is wrong. Numerical Recipes uses 31, and that is significant per the period length quote above. The use of 21 should measurable lower the period.

Instead if it were a simple LCG using values found in L'Ecuyer's 1999 publication on the topic (https://www.ams.org/journals/mcom/1999-68-225/S0025-5718-99-...) I assume it would have a better distribution.

So the implementation is a questionable algorithm from 1958, and it's done incorrectly. Numerical Recipes opens the chapter on randomness almost immediately with: "Now our first ... lesson in this chapter is: be very, very suspicious of a system-supplied rand()," and then the authors of the .NET random package show exactly why that is.

jcalx 4 hours ago|
Maybe turn-based roguelike deckbuilders aren't the best for this, but I actually like some correlated randomness in some games, as it adds a new hidden mechanic to explore. In Hades 1 there are some (presumably unintentional) RNG manipulations that open up high-level techs for seeded speedruns:

- Hades 1 is a series of "chambers", or enemy encounters, where some layouts are faster than others [0]

- chambers (and other things like enemy spawns, boons, etc.) are "randomly" picked by an RNG with its seed normally unknown to the player (well that, and other factors [1])

- you can see the per-chamber RNG seed using mods [2], and manipulate it with seemingly meaningless actions [3] — e.g. breaking a pot (a mundane, cosmetic environmental item) increments the RNG seed by 1

- this leads to the existence of "routed runs" [4] — very fast speedruns enabled by very deliberate actions that can be replicated by a skilled player [5].

- anecdotally, with enough practice, skilled players can also recognize chamber patterns in unseeded speedruns and give themselves better odds at more favorable chambers by manipulating the RNG (although tbh the ability to recognize this on the fly is a little dubious)

So the invisible correlated RNG seeding adds in a higher skill ceiling for experienced players, while not really taking anything away from casual players.

Another game with this kind of RNG mechanic is Super Mario Bros. 3 — there's an excellent (86-minute, fyi) Summoning Salt video about the history of speedrunning this game and dealing with the "random" Hammer Bros movement (@27:15 to skip to that part).

[0] https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vR6NaU9v1-raeibk...

[1] https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSl9RGGyPbNqCnTL...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHdt35TDvNY

[3] https://www.speedrun.com/hades/guides/jxpkj

[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBRTQkoOZ4k

[5] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fNlBhBOsCz6092GUnsIt...

[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EsFyogVvkw

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