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Posted by ibobev 14 hours ago

Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place(www.stephendiehl.com)
373 points | 470 commentspage 2
mcintyre1994 12 hours ago|
I do agree that there's a huge amount of fraud and scams, and obviously that's only got worse since the President of the US started being part of that ecosystem.

But at the same time there is also finally real finance happening on-chain too. Backpack launched a SpaceX token at IPO that can be moved between on-chain and your brokerage. I think Coinbase announced their on-chain equity offering will have the same capability. Just yesterday Bailie Gifford launched a tokenised fund where the actual register of record is on-chain. I still think crypto has significant potential as financial rails, and that does seem to be being explored by real financial players now too.

deepvibrations 11 hours ago||
Is it possible that these companies simply fork the existing protocols and use the technology without buying into the existing "crypto world"?

Yes it won't be quite so decentralised, but say a number of major banks all spin up a node for say a JPM asset trading blockchain, it becomes semi-decentralised, so they have some advantage of a using a more secure shared ledger, but they also retain more control and thus probably more acceptance within banking, as big players can keep a walled-garden of sorts.

drptech 11 hours ago||
[dead]
dgroshev 10 hours ago||
> Backpack launched a SpaceX token at IPO that can be moved between on-chain and your brokerage

What is the actual societal value of this? Do you seriously believe that such a token helps price discovery?

mcintyre1994 9 hours ago||
I doubt there's enough evidence to make that claim yet, but I think 24/7 trading could do that.
falsemyrmidon 8 hours ago||
Crypto has been the bad place for almost 10 years. It lost it's shot at being mainstream when Steam stopped accepting Bitcoin payments due to price instability.
BadBadJellyBean 9 hours ago||
I think the problem of crypto for mainstream usage was that it had no real purchasing power on its own. Every time you want to buy a good with crypto you have to pay the current market value of the coin in the local currency. There is usually no way to buy something for a fixed bitcoin value because at the end everyone want to exchange it for "real" money.

Without this it's always just a something to speculate on and shift "real" money with.

adrianwaj 7 hours ago|
Wow, such a great point. I think a lot of early Doge users were all about "1 doge = 1 doge" and leaving out any thought of fiat. A lot of early btc users were like "why is this worth so much, you can't even buy anything with it."

Also, proof-of-work has inherent but not intrinsic value. Gold and silver have utility, beauty and scarcity. Imagine if a coin could guarantee tokens in terms of locking in future AI compute for yourself (future proof-of-work.) Perhaps micropayments could skip the whole "what's this going to be worth in the real world" type thinking too.

So bitcoin has value like a spare tire does. Most of the time it'll just add fuel costs and reduce car performance, but when you need it and you don't have it you'll wish you did. So the value is really somewhere in between its boom-bust price cycle that was predicted early on. I mean, it's just an insurance policy in case something goes wrong with fiat.

On that note, it should really be buy-hold-forget and use only when you absolutely must. Just like insurance. Anything else and you're setting yourself up for disappointment or a windfall that may never happen.

Also, by integrating real-world assets into the blockchain via tokenization, crypto-currency loses some of this purity. It's a different use case and viewpoint and some may even say it is antithetical to the underlying purity. Yet, by making crypto more stable in terms of usage patterns, and generally more usable as a whole, its real-world value should in theory become more apparent. More government adoption and acceptance would also help.

You may not easily be able to walk across a border with a bag of cash or gold coins, but you can with a piece of paper or memorized URL. So what's that worth to someone? Far better than nothing at all.

SquareWheel 13 hours ago||
Note that this post includes a major spoiler for the show The Good Place. The show is fantastic, so I'd suggest not reading unless you've already finished season 1, or have decided it's not for you.
audunw 13 hours ago||
I only started watching it after I got spoiled, and didn’t mind it. Before I knew about the premise I thought the show looked boring. Didn’t pick it up based on the excerpt on Netflix.

The show doesn’t really rely on not knowing the twist. And even saying there’s a spoiler for season 1 will probably clue most people onto what the twist is anyway

amanaplanacanal 9 hours ago||
It doesn't look like much, but is absolutely terrific. I rewatch it every few years: it's funny as hell, and grapples with real philosophy.
normie3000 13 hours ago|||
Now I know there's a spoiler, the title of the article is a spoiler.
rsynnott 7 hours ago|||
It is, in fairness, a pretty common trope. See also https://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=936 , and also Iain M Banks' Surface Detail; both predate _The Good Place_.

(WARNING: The above comic contains the same spoiler as the article, more or less.)

doublepg23 6 hours ago||
Jacob's Ladder (1990) is one I'm thinking of too.
nytesky 13 hours ago|||
I am ride or die Good Place; my family has the Trolley Problem party game. Don’t spoil it if you haven’t seen it.

But honestly I feel the Darkest Timeline is more apt, ala Community.

righthand 13 hours ago|||
[flagged]
insanitybit 13 hours ago|||
Yes, we're so starved for content about the corruption in our country, thank god there's this one article that explains these hidden secret issues.
righthand 13 hours ago||
Oh okay, let me try to advise instead what you are suggesting:

Dont read anything about the corruption in this country, because it might not be entertaining as 10 year old TV show. You need a healthy entertainment diet of non-corruption content, so that you don’t feel the need to contribute to democracy.

insanitybit 13 hours ago||
Where is this "anything" coming from? Do you think this is the only article about this topic? This isn't even new.
righthand 13 hours ago||
Oh okay, there are multiple articles on the same thing, don’t read or inform yourself of anything because they might spoil an old TV show!

The article isn’t a light refresher on corruption, it literally has suggestions of how to change cryptocurrency investment for the better. It is frankly very indepth and lengthy and very good. But one wouldn’t know that if they skipped over it because of few lines might hurt their entertainment viewing-surprise ego.

insanitybit 12 hours ago||
Don't put spoilers in your article then idk what to tell you.
righthand 4 hours ago||
Okay then I know what to tell you however: Enjoy your new found uninformedness as relative to your passive tv diet.
normie3000 13 hours ago||||
> Read the article and try to understand it.

You made it seem mysterious, but it's spelled out explicitly in TFA:

> the meticulously designed paradise she has been living in is in fact an engineered torture chamber

mindwok 13 hours ago|||
You should be kinder to people if you want them to come around to your way of thinking.
righthand 13 hours ago||
I was unkind? I would call telling people to prioritize circuses over learning and livelihood pretty damn cruel. Even if they did it in a friendly way.
righthand 9 hours ago||
[flagged]
SquareWheel 8 hours ago|||
Well, I wasn't intending to violate any guidelines, and I don't believe I've dismissed the article besides. I was just trying to save some people from potential frustration, as there was no warning provided upfront.

edit: Ah, I see. You left this comment after having your last response flagged.

righthand 4 hours ago||
You dont believe you dismissed the article?

> so I'd suggest not reading unless you've already finished season 1

That’s pretty dismissive!

Yes I left this comment as an attempt at a new healthier approach to calling out bad/unhealthy comments. Not going to flag a rules debate.

scared_together 8 hours ago|||
I disagree that a spoiler warning qualifies as a “dismissal” or even a “complaint”.
righthand 4 hours ago||
But the spoiler warning isn’t the dismissal. It’s the dismissal that’s the dismissal:

> so I'd suggest not reading unless you've already finished season 1

Looks pretty dismissive unless you finish watching a tv show not entirely related to the content of the post to me.

How is it not a complaint to complain that theres a minor spoiler from a tv show in an article and suggest people not read it?

SonOfLilit 13 hours ago||
I wish I could just read the prompt rather then the very long article full of tiny mistakes that was generated from it.
randusername 11 hours ago|
What was the "tell" for you that makes you think this was AI-generated?
SonOfLilit 9 hours ago|||
I started keeping my eyes open when the wrong season was given for the Bad Place spoiler (I see this was since corrected, and maybe the flow there was improved as well?). In the first sections the obvious tells were edited out (but the thinking still feels like AI), by its ends you have "The business was never aggregation, or saving, or hedging. The business is sucker farming: manufacturing a product whose counterparty is a retail customer who does not understand that he is the one being farmed. It could have played by the existing rules. It has decisively chosen not to.", and from there the frequency of LLMisms, uh, increases not linearly, but exponentially.
mtndew4brkfst 10 hours ago|||
A lot of what else Stephen Diehl has published lately is more overtly slop, so it's a pretty safe bet.
senderista 3 hours ago||
I appreciate the analysis here, but the prose is giving me serious LLM vibes, and perhaps not coincidentally is verbose and repetitive. Sad if a talented author chose to give up his human voice.
valcron1000 9 hours ago||
This guy has been preaching against crypto for years, to the point of leaving the Haskell ecosystem just because the language was being used by Cardano. At some point you have to wonder what's going on with him...
titanomachy 13 hours ago||
> A shadow dollar system, newly blessed by federal statute, is quietly migrating the savings of the global poor onto the balance sheets of a handful of opaque private companies.

I'm out of the loop on this one. Is he talking about some crypto thing?

deweller 13 hours ago||
I assume he is referring to the uptick in stablecoin adoption. USD Stable coins are US dollar-backed cryptocurrency tokens that are intended to always hold a value of $1 USD.

Stablecoins are not backed by a central bank. Instead their source of value comes from a private company that holds actual US dollars or USD-equivalent reserves (like treasury bills, etc).

RobotToaster 13 hours ago|||
I've always wondered, how do the companies that run stablecoins make a profit? Are they buying treasury bonds?
koolba 13 hours ago|||
Each $1 of stable coin is supposed to be backed by $1 of dollar or short term equivalent. So the issuer is making money by collecting interest on it.

3-4% of billions (USDC alone is $80 billion) would itself be billions of dollars of annual interest. Easily covering the operating cost of these companies.

However, they don’t keep it all. Nobody is going to let you hold their cash in size without getting a slice of the interest. All the big players (like an exchange holding USDC of its patrons) cut deals with the stable coin issuers for a revenue split of that interest.

Ekaros 12 hours ago||||
Well if you pay 0 on deposits and then loan money out even just to treasuries there is money to be made. Get enough volume and it is big. Next step is riskier investments and not being fully backed... After all it is just IOU you minted yourself...
luke5441 12 hours ago||||
The profit created from issuing currency is called seigniorage. It is madness letting private companies capture this.
kikimora 13 hours ago||||
Yes, bonds, sometimes corporate debts, often money market participation.
nytesky 13 hours ago||||
Is it similar to WildCat banking?
andy81 12 hours ago||
More than similar. Another word for the same thing.
l23k4 10 hours ago||
I'd argue that the poor capitalization was a core part of wildcat banking, that's not really the case here.
nytesky 9 hours ago||
Is that a tongue in cheek reference to my inadvertently weird capitalization of wildcat as WildCat — no idea why I did that, maybe a throwback to my ThunderCats fandom of my youth.

Maybe lack of capital is a factor, but doesn’t that only come into play if redemptions are large? If it acts as a currency in circulation, there can be very little actual capital backing it (like how fractional reserves work for regular banks, IIRC).

l23k4 8 hours ago||
>Is that a tongue in cheek reference to my inadvertently weird capitalization of wildcat as WildCat — no idea why I did that, maybe a throwback to my ThunderCats fandom of my youth.

No, but that's hilarious. Good catch!

I don't think "wildcat banking" would be known as that if the banks hadn't been poorly capitalized (as in, they didn't have the money). If the banks had actually worked out, we'd just be calling it "banking".

Today, stablecoins have a hilariously simple way to print money: just buy treasuries, money market funds, or whatever. We're not necessarily going to see them collapsing due to poor capitalization.

sunshine-o 10 hours ago|||
> Stablecoins are not backed by a central bank. Instead their source of value comes from a private company that holds actual US dollars or USD-equivalent reserves (like treasury bills, etc).

Yes but the problem is there are already a lot of US dollars and the pandora box was opened since the end of WW2 at least.

Is the US dollar you hold in a bank outside of the US the same as the one in the US? no...

Are they all insured and backed by the Federal Reserve? absolutely not.

In a sense if you are abroad the USDC you get from Circle on a blockchain are much closer to a "real" dollar than most of us can get their hand on.

l23k4 13 hours ago|||
When you go outside of the nice countries, local money becomes worthless. Nobody wants it, they'd much rather have dollars instead.

Stablecoins for the first time offer a reasonable way for the global poor to store value in dollars, or in the form of any relatively stable currency.

Obviously this comes with all kinds of issues, but it's still better than the original situation where "savings" simply didn't exist except in the form of physical dollars or gold bought at a significant premium.

pjc50 13 hours ago|||
While this has a very reasonable point about access to dollars, it's also funny to contrast it against the breathless propaganda from crypto advocates that the dollar itself is going to be the victim of hyperinflation Real Soon Now.
ryanjshaw 12 hours ago||
Crypto advocates are not one homogenous blob.
dragandj 13 hours ago|||
The global poor already had ways to store value in dollars. They could simply exchange whatever meager savings they had into... real dollars! And they have been doing that for decades. I don't know whether anyone in the west really believes in this bullshit of cryptocurrencies that give the global poor options.
ryanjshaw 12 hours ago|||
This is simply not true. In South Africa, one of the largest African economies, you cannot hold foreign currency unless you are traveling and then you have to sell it back within 30 days of returning to the country. You can open a foreign currency account with a minimum of eg R1500 which is half the monthly minimum wage. Then there are the exchange fees to talk about. You are oversimplifying.
luke5441 12 hours ago||
So having foreign currency in stable coins is allowed in South Africa?
chasd00 9 hours ago||
iirc isn't the whole point of crypto that no one knows what you have or what you do with it?
graemep 6 hours ago||
They know even less with cash!

Crypto is not as reliably anonymous as cash. Anything with a distributed ledger is pseudonymous so if one transaction can on your wallet can be linked to you, so can all other transactions, including historical ones, to that wallet.

l23k4 10 hours ago|||
I suggest you go outside sometimes, you'll see that the real world looks rather different than whatever crypto-obsessed bubble you live in.

I really don't think I need to explain the obvious difference between physical US dollar notes and USDT.

I'll point out that in most of the world a $100 note is only worth $100 if it's in basically mint condition, the value falls rapidly as condition degrades.

graemep 10 hours ago||
What? I have never come across that. No problem with notes in many currencies with folds a creases, even small tears.. In my experience bank notes last for ever anyway. I have various notes from countries I have travelled to decades ago in good condition.
l23k4 8 hours ago||
If you're going to Paris? Sure, as long as the amounts are relatively small. Try paying with pre 2009 100USD bills in Africa lol.

Even banks struggle with this https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/05/30/old-money-new-proble...

Goes to show how viable cash is as a store of value for most of the world.

graemep 8 hours ago||
According to that article it has nothing to do with condition, but with the lack of anti-counterfeiting protection on older notes.

I have lived in, and briefly worked in a bank in, in a country where people do use USD, GBP etc. notes as a store of value, sometimes in large amounts (you hear about that when they get burgled!).

Paradigm2020 7 hours ago||
Cambodia official currency is USD (1000 riel = meant to be 0.25c, goes up to 50000 riel) prices are advertised in $ in general with sometimes 1$ = 4200/4300/4500...

Anyway key point is your USD better be mint and at least 2018 or they will refuse it... Same at currency exchanges in most of south east Asia that have their own currency.

salmonik 13 hours ago|||
I am pretty sure he's talking about the TrumpCoin.
sunshine-o 10 hours ago||
In recent years, since a lot of central banks have been putting gold and other assets instead of US dollars on their balance sheet, the dollar need new outlets and this is what those stablecoins through Circle and Tether are: easy access to dollars for anybody with a computer and internet connection, skipping banks and other financial institutions.

Trump is a pro crypto president in the sense that he is making it official and a lot of actors in finance are fighting it because it is killing their own lucrative scam.

The whole Trump memecoin and World Liberty Financial is shady but really a side story.

The bottom line is if you hold USD a lot of "legacy" actors are making money on your back. With stablecoins Tether, Circle & co join the party.

cryptoisgrift 4 hours ago||
I worked in Web3 for 2 years after getting poached from a very vanilla non-crypto tech role. Everyone here is talking about the scams and crime but I haven’t seen anyone mention how disinterested everyone is in the tech. Talking about it is a game, how long can they keep the conversation going before you hit the BS bedrock. Once you do its masks off, no it’s not decentralised, no it can’t scale, no it will never be fixed.
simonebrunozzi 5 hours ago|
> The business is sucker farming: manufacturing a product whose counterparty is a retail customer who does not understand that he is the one being farmed. It could have played by the existing rules. It has decisively chosen not to.

Bingo.

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