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Posted by ibobev 17 hours ago

Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place(www.stephendiehl.com)
381 points | 482 commentspage 4
estetlinus 16 hours ago|
> gold carries a floor of industrial demand

I can’t help but think Bitcoin carries a floor for criminal activity. It will always be valuable.

pjc50 16 hours ago||
> The public's trust in markets is finite. Every dollar lost on a self-referential game labeled a market consumes a small piece of that finite trust, and the consumption over fifteen years has been considerable

Yes, and not just in crypto. People have started to view a high-trust society like a rainforest: a natural resource that has lots of life-sustaining positive externalities, but you can just burn it down to make a quick buck instead. This has been bad since the GFC, and accelerated by the modern rightwing influence sphere.

There's a very real tendency to people to go "I don't trust mainstream source <X> for <slightly valid reason in one case>", and then immediately jump to totally trusting some random youtube or tiktok conspiracy theorist.

shoelessone 16 hours ago|
> People have started to view a high-trust society like a rainforest: a natural resource that has lots of life-sustaining positive externalities, but you can just burn it down to make a quick buck instead.

I've never read this analogy before but it really works for me. Thanks!

kriro 16 hours ago||
The fun ahead will probably be capable LLMs + smart contracts. There are probably a lot of issues that can be discovered.
blenklo 16 hours ago||
I don't think so as smart contracts have huge issues unsolved.

It also doesn't solve a problem we haven already solved; If i buy something, companies are quite aware how this default contract works and what are up and downside of doing business with someone.

In smart contracts you remove the trust these people build and now come up with another mechanism. The latest i'm aware of is blocking capital from both sides until transaction is done. This binds a lot more capital on both sides which might be a huge problem for a small company vs. a big one, it could alos kill one party if the other party never accepts any resolution.

A current LLM with a credit card an already just buy something and everything in the background works as it has for a long time.

pjc50 16 hours ago||
Fun for the first person that prompt injects their way to a billion dollars, I suppose?
kriro 15 hours ago||
Yeah just to clarify, I meant there are probably a lot of issues in existing smart contracts that can be discovered with Mythos style LLMs. And given how many exist and are fairly blindly trusted (who ever reads the audit reports) this could be a pretty epic meltdown spiral that gets triggers.
root_axis 13 hours ago||
At this point, cryptocurrency is just a distributed cult. I genuinely feel bad for my handful of friends who remain under the influence of these gambling chip protocols. Somehow they still can't manage to read the room when awkwardly bringing up cryptocurrency at social gatherings and casual conversation.

Thankfully, the rampant fraud and scams have made it obvious to most people, with LLM hype now drowning out the siren song that captivates people vulnerable to FOMO of the week.

singpolyma3 14 hours ago||
This is such a boring take. Everyone was writing the same things in 2008.
no_multitudes 11 hours ago||
I stopped reading at "The policy correlate of the vocabulary theft is equally clean." Please write your own blog posts; if I wanted to listen to Claude ponder about the crypto market I would have prompted it myself.
Sparkyte 11 hours ago||
Crypto is just unregulated stocks.
WorldMaker 9 hours ago|
This article is about how crypto is so much worse than that. A stock is a hedge on the realities like expected revenue of a corporation. Crypto doesn't have enough reality underpinning it, it's almost always pure gambling, often exactly the negative sum gambling of a casino (the house always wins).
sfjailbird 15 hours ago||
> Each one, taken alone, would have been a bleak, dystopian fever dream ripped from the pages of a William Gibson cyberpunk novel.

Gibson isn't really that kind of dystopian. And the Good Place reference makes no sense. The article reads like those old Time Magazine pieces by some baby boomer breathlessly trying to scare other old people.

foobarbecue 16 hours ago||
Contains unwarned spoilers for The Good Place.
aenis 5 hours ago|
What absolute horrible formatting of the blog. Small font, 60pct of the screen area unused. Who designs this shit?
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