Posted by Pragmata 18 hours ago
With the labs moving into the app layer every interaction with the API related to product development or innovation is data they will steal and use to compete against you by adding those features to their everything apps. No one would hire a knowledge firm (law firm, accountants, management consultants) if they could steal your information and give it to your competitors. Their actions have remained me that we can’t tolerate that with AI systems.
With spaceX buying cursor and Google buying windsurf, and gathering all the developer interaction as training data, there is too much risk that development process itself will be rug pulled.
Source: https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/2072103733715194048?s=20
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June 30, 2026
Tom Brown Chief Compute Officer Anthropic 548 Market Street San Francisco, CA 94104
Dear Mr. Brown:
Since the issuance of my previous letters, dated June 12, 2026 and June 26, 2026, Anthropic has taken steps in close coordination with the U.S. government to address the risks associated with Claude Mythos 5 and Claude Fable 5. Among other things, Anthropic has agreed to proactively detect and address security risks associated with the models; to work diligently with the U.S. government on protocols and standards and releases for Mythos, Fable, and future models; and to inform the U.S. government of any malicious activity.
In light of these actions and commitments, as well as the Bureau of Industry and Security's evaluation of the diversion risks now presented by Claude Mythos 5 and Claude Fable 5, the controls in the June 12 letter are withdrawn. A license is no longer required for the export, reexport, or in-country transfer, including deemed export or deemed reexport, of the Mythos or Fable models.
Commerce reserves the right to reevaluate the decisions made in this letter and the necessity of reimposing a license requirement, should circumstances change or should Anthropic fail to adhere to its commitments.
If you have any questions about this letter, please contact me or the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, at (202) 255-1864.
Sincerely,
Howard W. Lutnick
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https://archive.is/9k7qt#selection-2001.41-2001.49 https://archive.is/dybOE
(not necessarily implying it's conscious strategy, authoritarians tend to be actual incoherent dumbasses)
I have no proof but I assume he believes at least some of what he's preaching (which doesn't mean he won't fold, at the end of the day it's an american company anyway).
Brown is probably more of a diplomat, "Sure, but not now" goes a lot further than "No, never", though it has the issue of kicking the can down the road.
This is false and just Anthropic being good at PR. He's happy to let it be used for airstrikes on Iran for example, just wants to keep a human in the loop. So the AI will say 'I am extremely sure this building (a girl school) is a military base' and the human will say 'I am being asked to carry out more airstrikes and who am I to question AI' and will bomb a school with Amodei then washing his hands.
1. the US used it, in venezuela then to prepare Iran
2. it became public through journals reporting it, but they didn't really hide from it afterwards and told explicitely what and who they used, naming anthropic
3. Diego (the CEO) answered by saying this violate terms and the US is not allowed and should stop that immediately, publicly
4. They have a talk, and while concessions are made it blocks not about war with ennemies but about surveillance at home, which Diego refuses to let go
5. Trump reacted by calling Anthropic a "Radical Left AI company run by people who have no idea what the real World is all about"
6. Peter Hegseth annonce they will stop using it but asked for a stop gap deal "Anthropic will continue to provide the Department of War its services for a period of no more than six months to allow for a seamless transition."
7. Open AI annonce a deal with the governement four and a half HOURS later, with totally cool safeguards "We think our agreement has more guardrails than any previous agreement for classified AI deployments, including Anthropic's", journals note that "OpenAI's new Pentagon deal doesn't explicitly prohibit collecting Americans' publicly available information - a sticking point that rival Anthropic says is crucial for ensuring domestic mass surveillance doesn't take place"
8. In totally unrelated news, Anthropic new models get banned for exports in a move the US has never done before, no other company has their models banned
And now
9. Anthropic change the person talking with the gov to Brown
10. After a bit anthropic models start being unbanned
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/01/claude-an...
He states the Iran school strike 'doesn't even violate our red lines'.
Can you clarify what am I misrepresenting please?
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
He likely does not have the domain knowledge nor is authorized to be the recipient of such a letter.
And that's ok. His role is to hire others competent in export matters. It's a learning experience for them.
One of the contributing factors that led to this control in the first place was that the commerce department couldn't get Dario on a call immediately:
"Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat.... When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett."
https://x.com/SophiaCai99/status/2065942612293365948
Anthropic has disputed that Dario was at a wellness retreat but both sides seem agree that it seemed to be a problem (and it is very apparent that Dario's response made things worse).
It's shocking to me that Anthropic seems to be run with the same managerial chaos as depicted in early seasons of Entourage.
Dario may be a genius, but when it comes to running a big business — which involves dealing with governments and regulators — it's like he just fell off a turnip truck.
In the end, we need actual laws that tell the market what kinds of models get paused / analyzed, how long that pause can be, etc.
Otherwise there’s no standard and it will be easily abused and prevent investment in US AI companies.
A: Congress used to be able to establish regulatory authority in the executive branch to manage details like this, because writing a useful law that covers this in any detail would be impossible. Thanks, GOP-stacked Supreme Court, for wrecking that.
B: This administration doesn't give a rat's ass about the law, so none of this would make a difference anyway.
That's been the problem both times this administration was in power. Some people like to call it 4D Chess (because they don't understand it and their conspiratorial thinking requires there to be "a plot" or "a plan"). The last person to get to the ear of this President is the cause of any new "process" or "policy". It is just whim. Like a dog seeing a squirrel. Something shiny has attracted his attention. And that new squirrel gets chased.
That said, there is stupid "making it up" and smart "making it up". But it does need to be made up.
> After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8.
Edit: the above was from their tweet announcement at https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2072163884430229756 ... the associated blog post at https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5 suggests it was just poorly written and coding can still be done with Fable, just with overeager bouncing of "some routine coding and debugging tasks" to Opus.
> The new classifier also comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks.
Here's Fable 5, the strongest model. Actually try to use it to harden your code and it turns into Opus 4.8. You have seven days to use it, and only half of that time's worth in actual usage. Enjoy.
Looks like it's going to be a thoroughly frustrating experience, even worse than initial rollout. For subscription users, the situation is almost indistinguishable from the export ban.
I won’t even bother with it if they’ve made it even more frustrating. Instead, I’ve been using a combo of Opus 4.8, GLM 5.2 and DeepSeek v4 Pro. Then I have Opus synthesize and verify the reports from all 3 and make the fixes.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48466313
Just a code review of my own project. Downgraded to Opus 50% of the time while evaluating the critical I/O and memory safety parts, the exact thing I wanted it to do.
And now it's gonna be even worse.
I expect the strong cybersecurity model to help me strengthen the cybersecurity of my project.
> not allowed to cover security topics
They said it wouldn't be usable for offensive purposes. This is the opposite of that.
The cybersecurity model is Mythos, which was never made publicly available. It is only available to a list of US government approved companies.
> They said it wouldn't be usable for offensive purposes
No, they said Fable would refuse for cybersecurity and offensive purposes. You are conflating Fable with Mythos.
I guess the underlying issue is that there is this model that is very capable, but it's being hobbled because of a fear of abuse. It may well be justified, but for a legitimate user any restriction just makes it a worse product and after all the puffery around how good it is (and some practical experience of how good it is) it's a pretty shit experience. "Here's our best model, no you can't really use it".
That's what I was trying to use it for. Find bugs. Anthropic just refused to let it find the memory safety bugs in my C project.
Fable 5, harden my openssl project. Then you use the diffs/summary to find out what the bug is for your exploit.
This "only super special corporations get the model" nonsense is dividing society into haves and have-nots.
Anthropic was correct in their assessment and early warning of Mythos's capabilities, and they did this rollout pretty well. They were not hype marketing. They were being genuinely cautious and honest.
The Trump admin was largely unreasonable with the sudden export control. (Though not entirely unreasonable.) The export control also had not much to do with Anthropic's pre-release warnings. See: GPT-5.6 currently being held up by the federal government.
So what prevented them from putting in the sort of safeguards they ended up putting in without hyping it for months prior as being so good, it's too dangerous?
If they were truly honest in their beliefs of the potential risks of this model, how would their behavior have differed? I would expect exactly the behavior we see, if they were being honest in their belief.
Also note Dario here saying they shot themselves in the foot commercially with how they handled the rollout of the model - you can tell by his reflexive reaction how ridiculous he considers the accusation: https://youtu.be/v1wZwxY3CMg?t=2103
Instead they choose to hype for months about having a model that's simply 'too dangerous to release'.
In other words, why hype it beforehand instead of just quietly add the safeguards they ended up with anyways and release then?
Honestly, why bother with it? They are effectively just releasing the model in-name, but we just get Opus 4.8.
I think the Fable ban happened because Anthropic was first to release a capable enough model.
They almost definitely mean "you will notice even more false positives during seemingly routine coding/debugging tasks than you did at the initial launch". Which is not surprising, given the ordeal they've been put through. Hopefully it won't be too bad.
The main depressing thing for me is it's now only 7 days on the subscription, and then full API pricing, with no mention of even a plan to bring it back to the subscription in the future. (The initial launch mentioned two weeks of subscription, then API pricing, then a hope to return it back to the subscription not long after.)
What can you use it for? To run a breadth search on Erdos problems?
"In the near term" is doing some heavy lifting.
> The new classifier also comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks.> Fable 5 will be available starting tomorrow, Wednesday, July 1, to users globally on the Claude Platform, Claude.ai, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork. For Pro, Max, Team, and select Enterprise plans,1 Fable 5 will be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7, after which it will be available via usage credits. We will re-enable access on AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Foundry as quickly as possible.
Reading the full blog post, I think the summary was just poorly written (because it's hard not to read that sentence like all coding is redirected to Opus).
> The new classifier also comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks. As with all our safeguards, we’ll continue to refine this to better distinguish genuine misuse from legitimate requests and reduce false positives.
are export controls the right thing ? Probably not.
but the american economy is over-exposed on "A.I" - the capital expenditure, while the Chinese are proving you don't need to spend tons of capital to get close to the frontier.
the Chinese have better building capacity & cheaper energy. that means the market has to correct at some point.
I'm extremely left leaning myself but I'd rather not be able to tell who won the last election cycle by looking at HN and seeing whether comments containing phrases like this for the president are upvoted or [dead]. The only thing it aids is convincing people the guidelines are for selective application. Everyone who doesn't like ${currentPresident} will be unchanged and those who do aren't going to be convinced by constant casual name calling across the site - probably the opposite.
I usually also expect to get called out as only saying this when ${currentParty} is in power or when it only benefits ${awfulThingsAboutCurrentParty}, regardless which that is and what those are at the moment. I've started including this note and the searchable token "reallynotpartyrelated" when commenting such things for later reference - this paragraph can otherwise be ignored :).
First the US blocked China from buying NVIDIA's H100, but allowed NVIDIA to sell them a China-special nerfed H100, the H800
Then the US blocked the H800
Then the US realized that China was indeed accelerating their US independence, so does a U-turn and has now approved the H200 (more powerful than both the H100 and H800) for sale to China, on a case-by-case basis
However - and here is the real kicker - China themselves are now blocking H200 purchases since they want the acceleration towards Chinese homegrown solutions to continue, and now we have Chinese models being served on Huawei Ascend chips, with next generation Ascend 750 chips (using CXMT made memory) targetting training currently in testing.
Now we have Apple asking the US government for permission to buy memory from CXMT given the global shortage!
Of course they have ways around this -- you can get black market GPUs and also API costs are SUPER cheap there -- they hack the subscription model, bundle a bunch of user accounts, and route API requests through them.
And yes they are getting to parity with US technology and will get there in a few years, they have decent chips but still not the quality of NVIDIA.
It's really a very complex situation
Without access to ASML EUV machines, the Chinese will be stuck on older less-dense chip manufacturing nodes, but in terms of building a cluster this is just a cost/efficiency issue - it means you need more chips, more electricity!
Deepseek and Kimi are writing paper after paper with substantial architecture improvements for efficiency, because they can't just throw more hardware at the problem.
And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it not for the sanctions.
Gaining parity on the semiconductor fab front has been official government policy as part of their Five Year Plan for at least the last decade, straight from the Politburo. They were always going to go down this path, and with AI playing front and center on their upcoming plan, there’s even more pressure.
There was never a possibility of them not exploring it.
They have always been able to do this, but this time they did have the option to pass.
They’ve also invested in AI separately (before LLMs) in that time period but I’m less familiar with that sector.
The tradeoff is worth it. They’re even publishing papers which blows me away — their efficiency gains quickly become incorporated into frontier models because they are open sourcing them. They would be aggressively pursuing the same chip pipeline strategy as they are today.
US is lagging in efficiency work because the ROI is better elsewhere for us. We have the same tier of talent, once the script flips so can the research.
Let's face it - all bans were dumb. They just gave China the legal (per WTO rules) justification to start producing everything domestically. The bans work as a reverse tariff, as a protectionist measure that actually protects your competitor. If China did those, others could bring China to court at the WTO. But the US did that, so nobody can sue China.
There's enough money and scale on the line that software affinity like CUDA is no longer the deciding factor and there's margin for custom stacks.
Even more so after the USA GPU exports ban which is proving to have backfired by speeding up China's tech growth.
If west ai is too advanced can take over the world. So better go to war now on a same level playing field than later when you need to fight against a SGI
Instead, the US banned China from chips and lithography machines, giving China the legal excuse to start producing them domestically without violating WTO rules. Now China produces cheap chips and uses them with cheap electricity.
This was a dumb move by the US. Brought upon it by dumbf*ck aristocratic elites who grew up in isolated mansions and then received law degrees, with absolutely no understanding of technology and technology ecosystems. They thought they'd just make the rules and everybody would have to obey. It turns out in technology, they don't have to...
The H200 was released Nov 2024.
Even allowing for Jensen exaggerating the risk there is no way China is 7-10 years behind.
Looking at manufacturing process nodes, SMIC N+3 is a a 5nm process. 5nm was introduced by Samsung and TSMC in 2020 so at most that is 6 years.
But the chips they can produce on it are roughly comparable to "roughly level with Android flagships from three years ago"[2]
TL;DR: China is more like 2-4 years behind than 7-10 years. If China developed EUV lithography then all bets are off.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1kxw6b9/nvidia_... - see video.
[2] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/se...
The only difference between using a slower chip such as H100 (or Huawei's Ascend 750) vs NVIDIA's newer Blackwell chips (B200 etc) is that you need more of the slower chips to achieve the same total FLOPs in your cluster. It has zero effect on what models you can run on it.
To quote Pat Toulme:
There’s a big misconception about how GLM 5.2 was trained. Yes, they distilled Claude and GPT 5.5 — but distillation is not how they matched Opus quality. Distillation only fixed the cold start problem in RL.
RLing an agentic coding model isn’t rocket science. In simplified terms:
1. RL needs trajectories — rollouts where the model actually completed a task in some env
2. No successful trajectory on a task = zero gradient = you can’t RL it. This is the cold start problem
3. Distillation solves it. You seed your model with knowledge from a smarter one (Claude, GPT) on tasks it can’t do yet
4. Now it produces positive trajectories on those tasks
5. RL on those trajectories and hill climb agentic coding
6. At that point you no longer need to distill and can solely hill climb RL to better models
This is an interesting curve. I’d argue it’s harder to get to Opus 4.8 from scratch than to go from Opus 4.8 → Fable/Mythos tier.
GLM 5.2 is already producing positive trajectories, so they have plenty to RL on — they’ll keep climbing to Mythos quality without distilling any further. They no longer need American models.
https://x.com/PatrickToulme/status/2069211575437627743
Not exactly sure what the finish line in "the race to superintelligence" looks like and even moreso it's unclear why you think being there first is a critical benefit.
"Anthropic has agreed to proactively detect and address security risks associated with the models" LOL, this was already happening.
This clown car administration just keeps making shit up and then backpedalling in a way that just leaves everything worse.
Looks like it's gonna be even harder to use than before, if not impossible. Subscription users only get it for a week, and only for 50% of that week's usage.
That a good 1/3 of America is still cheering this behavior on is beyond me. I didn't vote for him anytime he ran, but at least during his first term there were some adults I disagreed with in the room as opposed to the barrel of chaos monkeys we now have. He really doesn't reflect the views of either party, he is his own thing.
It's pretty clear that they didn't want this anyway, despite what the conspiracy theorists want to believe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic%E2%80%93United_State...
> Fable 5 will be available starting tomorrow, Wednesday, July 1, to users globally... Fable 5 will be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7, after which it will be available via usage credits.
OpenAI is doing a much better job on this, offering generous usage limits to users at home. They also hand out usage resets for minor issues, that you can even apply at a time of your choosing.
It's nice that the restriction is going to get lifted but I hope this doesn't make anyone complacent that their coding work is going to be scrutinized by the US government, with AI, when using these models.
https://www.mixvale.com.br/2026/06/26/fbi-warns-brazilian-po...
Why would you expect a typical policy decision to be reversed within 3 weeks? If policies are going to be reversed within 3 weeks just don't do them in the first place.
Looks like Anthropic paid the Danegeld. Now they'll never get rid of the Dane.
Overview: https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/vikings/overview_vikin...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northumbrian_Revolt_of_1065