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Posted by varjag 11 hours ago

The fall of the theorem economy(davidbessis.substack.com)
200 points | 89 commentspage 2
a1o 7 hours ago|
From reading this, it looks like the projected future is mathematicians working more applied to a domain, and the basic research in the academia being severely impacted by the AI companies - who have the money to hire the senior mathematicians from the academia. I guess if some of the biggest universities could come up with their own AI powered programs there could be something to “answer” in a more accessible knowledge, but I don’t see how to properly keep the students motivated to ensure the field keeps producing new people.
j7ake 10 hours ago||
Does the the ⁡(,1) conjecture paper in annnals of Math say 7 years between submission and acceptance? Insane
bananaflag 9 hours ago|
These stories are common in math, e.g. these recently happened to me, a lowly mathematician:

1) Two and a half years with no reply from a journal (not even to emails I sent that I'd like to retract the paper so I could send it somewhere else). Then suddenly they tell me the paper is accepted.

2) One year with no reply. Then, my "anxious" collaborator sends them countless emails and gets redirected from person to person and finally an editor tells us that they decided almost immediately to reject our paper but they didn't tell us because "they hate giving bad news".

These were not top journals like Annals, but decent, prestigious ones, from whom you'd expect some professionalism.

vatsachak 5 hours ago||
I've had a paper unrejected from Duke. The publication process sucks
tacomonstrous 3 hours ago||
How does unrejection work exactly?
jdw64 9 hours ago||
Someday, there might be mathematics designed for AI. Mathematics that only a tiny fraction of humans can understand, but a different kind of mathematics might emerge. I wonder if we would still call it mathematics.

What would happen if a non-human layer of mathematics emerged on top of human mathematics? In this article, the distinction between Mathlib and Mathslop might be a precursor to that.

If models advance enough in the future, and new definitions, compressions, and representational forms that are convenient for AI-to-AI communication emerge, what would happen then? Would mathematics split into Human-facing and Machine-facing branches?

pfortuny 9 hours ago|
Science is not about results, it is about the transmission of knowledge. So long as those AI-"sciences" are just inside AI, they are "engineering", not science.

I am not dismissing engineering (it moves the world we live in), just trying to clarify what science is.

Applied fluid dynamics works like that: noone has ever really "verified" that the finite-element method applied to some specific model does converge

jvanderbot 9 hours ago|||
Agree, but more specifically Math is clearly about a human understanding structure of things. Math is basically for humans. It's one of the main reasons understandable proof is so important.
pfortuny 9 hours ago||
Well, by "understanding" I mean "understanding by humans", indeed.
varjag 9 hours ago||||
Engineering is used fairly loosely these days but I insist engineering ends where you have to prove theorems.
raddan 8 hours ago||
That’s a strange delineation. Engineering is essentially about designing a thing, asking whether that thing really does satisfy the desired criteria, and then iterating when it does not. Mathematical models of the world are tremendously useful to this practice—engineers don’t need to guess about many aspect of the real world: they have physics. What they want, more than anything else, is strong evidence that a property holds. Internal validity (proof) and external validity (experiment) are the best evidence that you can get—why would you throw one of those approaches away?
jdw64 8 hours ago|||
So what I’m most curious about is this: if there are axioms and proofs so enormous that a human could never prove them in a lifetime, but a machine can, does that make it engineering? That’s the point I’m really wondering about.

I mean, what if a human could follow every single step of the process in principle, but the sheer volume is so vast that a human can never see the whole thing—would that be engineering?

But I don’t think of that as engineering. In the future, maybe it will be called an Oracle

pfortuny 1 hour ago|||
I would call it "Engineered (as machine-made trustworthy) Mathematics": you have results but nobody undrstands them but they were not produced by humans.

Despite that, people use them. In that sense, similar to the Finite Elements method. But the tools (statements) are machined like any other tool (screwdriver).

Similar to microprocessors in your example. But about statements.

oliculipolicula 4 hours ago|||
You might have gotten it backwards. Proofs are essentially rooted trees

The details could be painful but having a birds eye view is always possible?

And having a machine compress it for human consumption, sounds very plausible (and which I think of as engineering)

codemog 3 hours ago||
> Some prophesy that mathematics will eventually resemble Chess, a sport that a few eccentrics practice with passion and the general public can safely ignore.

How is it not already this? Jon von Neumann was already calling most math this many decades ago. Pull up any random arxiv math paper and it’s abstract nonsense with no applications to the real world.

guelo 8 hours ago||
When math is so divorced from science and engineering that there's no conceivable way that it will ever be applied in the real world then it is just a complex puzzle game that a tiny group of people play. It doesn't really matter much. If the 200,000 line Mathslop proof has no real world application and it doesn't help the puzzle solvers then it is double useless.
ajkjk 3 hours ago||
This is also my stance. The fact that large numbers of people spend large amounts of publicly-funded time exploring what are essentially abstract puzzles is bizarre and not that different from, like, cloistered religious devotees who are supported in spending their time studying scripture and are considered to be the 'source' from which flows a certain kind of universal truth.

Not that it is wrong for them to be doing this---we do want a society where people get to devote their life to what interests them---but it is bizarre because of the framing. For some reason it is ambiently understood in our society that this work is of incontrovertible value, when in fact it is largely not. And the value-producing parts of the work, the parts that end up having applications to other fields, largely run contrary to the actual daily goals of the cloistered devotees: it is mostly the intuition and pedagogy and the compactification and refactoring of knowledge that have value at this point, not the production of esoteric theorems, yet that is expressly not rewarded in the incentive structures.

That latter point is more due to the sorry state of academic incentives in general than to a particular failing of mathematics, though. Were I somehow given the ability to restructure things by fiat I would immediately create journals which publish only useful articles that refactor knowledge, communicate intuition, better explain things, argue for structural improvements to notation and terminology, etc, and this would immediately create an incentive to do that kind of work for working researchers to do work which aligns with the actually-useful output of their fields. I suspect most fields could use something like this. New knowledge is just not that valuable if it is all dumped into a giant pile and unprocessed, and I have seen firsthand a bunch examples where entire subdisciplines are hamstrung in their actual application-heavy work because they don't have easy access to basic tools that are hidden behind hard-to-learn theory.

rramadass 7 hours ago||
Right; this is my viewpoint too. All the "pure mathematicians" have a bleak future where AI can do all the puzzle solving better and faster. They existed in their own world elevating "theorem proving within a formal system" as the central aspect of "proper" mathematics and everything else as ancillary.

It always felt wrong to me that while the scientific method iterated starting with the "real world" viz. Observe, Measure, Hypothesize (includes modeling with mathematics), Test and Refine; pure mathematicians lost themselves in the formalization of hypothesizing/modeling and thus lost touch with mapping it to reality. The AI revolution is now showing them up.

TimorousBestie 4 hours ago|||
> pure mathematicians lost themselves in the formalization of hypothesizing/modeling and thus lost touch with mapping it to reality.

You’re describing a very small fragment of total current mathematical labor. Very few people work solely on “formalization” and even e.g. model theory or type theory have real consequences.

cubefox 5 hours ago|||
Yes. Though even philosophy, which doesn't have the "real world" iteration that science does, arguably doesn't have the problems of pure mathematics.

Pure mathematicians create ever more abstractions and get lost in solving puzzles on how these abstractions logically relate to each other. But since these abstractions don't have any relevance outside of pure mathematics, it's an entirely self-referential game, like chess. Except that nobody confuses being a professional chess player with being a noble researcher.

Even in philosophy, at least analytic philosophy, that issue of getting lost in your own abstractions doesn't really exist. Because analytic philosophy doesn't analyze its own concepts, it analyzes the concepts that already exist in natural language. Like truth, knowledge, probability, causation, belief, desire, consciousness, rationality and so on. These concepts come from outside of philosophy, and they have independent relevance for non-philosophers.

In contrast, pure mathematics seems to be the part of mathematics that only has relevance to pure mathematicians. Similar to how a game like chess has only relevance to chess players, not to anything entirely unrelated to chess. But again, people who are into mastering some game or sport are fully aware that what they are trying to master is a self-contained game, or sport, not something that increases the amount of human knowledge beyond that.

Staross 8 hours ago||
I thought it was very interesting, but maybe also incredibly naive politically ? it's like he's re-discovering alienation under capitalism.

A wood-worker could do the same argument, there's the "official" wood-working word of perfect joinery and beautifully finished tables one can buy, but behind it there's the "secret" messy human element, the art, the craft, the mistakes and hard-ships, the elevation of human skills and imagination, the creation of whole new types of wood-working inventions and techniques, the perpetuation of millenia-old traditions, the teaching, the joy of selling to a happy customer, etc.

But now comes techo-capitalism, division of labor, you cut that piece a that piece over and over, you operate that machine, you won't even see the finished table, fuck your human element, we want that profit !

throwaway91827 8 hours ago||
I don't think you have it right- the analogy to woodworking and craftsmanship is a category error and probably misses the broad thrust of the essay.

The goal of a woodworker or craftsman is the production of a finished good. He's arguing that, although it's been convenient to position a mathematician as a "theorem-producer", that's never really been the aim of mathematics, and that the actual products of mathematics are some kind of "mental software"- see his references to neuroplasticity. Basically, he's saying that the goal of mathematics is to create abstract structures that allow humans to reason about increasingly complex concepts, and that the "mathematician as theorem producer" is more like a convenient fiction that mathematicians have allowed to persist for too long, and now threatens to endanger the whole practice of mathematics.

zerobees 5 hours ago|||
You start with instincts that are more easily ascribed to ethically-neutral or ethically-positive reasoning, and then turn them into a spurious criticism of capitalism. Case in point: in the USSR, the means of producing chairs were 100% state-controlled and not motivated by profit, but the country operated soulless production lines too.

The motivation behind all this is less "haha I want profit" and more "billions of people need chairs, approximately none of them care about the craftsmanship, so it's in our best interest to make furniture in the most resource- and labor-efficient way possible". Even if the state subsidizes the production of handcrafted chairs, the population is the poorer for it on a resource allocation basis, because we now need a million artisanal chair-makers instead of a bunch of factories.

TimorousBestie 4 hours ago||
> I thought it was very interesting, but maybe also incredibly naive politically ? it's like he's re-discovering alienation under capitalism.

To be fair, a number of professional politicians and political scientists don’t understand alienation under capitalism.

daxfohl 3 hours ago||
To be devil's advocate, two things may offer a glimmer of hope:

First, math, generally, is useless. I mean, yes there are of course practical uses of basic thru undergrad-level math, and some beyond that. But for many mathematicians, the sum result of their entire career may lead to exactly zero results that have any real-world value. The entire field they work in may have meaning only to the handful of other individuals on the planet that also work in that field. But to those handful of people, the meaning defines their lives. From a socio-economic perspective, those departments should have been defunded a century ago. Yet they continue. Why? Because it scratches an itch. Not just for those individuals in the field, but also for us as a species. To stop exploring, to eliminate the search for pots of gold that may be buried in some odd corner of sphere packing, or coloring theorems, or Garside categories, and to put a boundary on the limits of our understanding, just because they aren't immediately applicable, is an idea that most humans would not be willing to sacrifice, even if it reduced their tax burden a couple cents. If it was going to happen, it'd have happened already.

The second is, even with AI, it's not free. As the software industry is discovering, far from it. So, given that, who is going to decide what theorems to research and how much it's worth? Congress? Of course not. AI itself? In theory that sounds plausible, but that falls victim to thing 1 above: most math is useless, so AI itself has no value metric it can assign to things, and besides which, without the human element, once the initial curiosity has subsided, there'd be no reason to continue any funding for AI to do it. So no, the only possible owners of this is going to be mathematicians themselves, the ones who care about the field and deeply understand the kwah of their vision.

Combining these, there's a future where, humanistically, "nothing changes". The method changes, the efficiency changes, the scope changes, but the work itself: publishing proofs, remains the domain of professional mathematicians. AI will enable them to be dramatically more daring and broad in their investigations and scope, and will likely write the entirety of the proof. However it will remain the work of the mathematicians to determine, what areas are worth spending limited AI resources on to investigate further, how far to go down rabbit holes, how to prioritize potential connections, and what the ultimate meaning of the findings is. So rather than being an end of mathematics, it could be a dawn of something far greater than anything we've ever seen before.

cubefox 8 hours ago||
This might be the most interesting essay on the nature of mathematics I have ever read.
asdfsa32 8 hours ago||
Is being pompous and on the nose part of being in mathematics?

"I was in Switzerland", "I was invited to a talk", "I started a machine learning company", look at me bro.

capnrefsmmat 8 hours ago|
Being invited to conference talks around the world is a completely normal part of being an active researcher in almost any academic field, so it doesn't register as pompous to other academics.
asdfsa32 6 hours ago||
Yes, which makes starting with those somewhat strange as they're largely unrelated.
khalic 10 hours ago|
I see the AI panic has reached mathematics…