Top
Best
New

Posted by kscarlet 6 hours ago

Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP(arxiv.org)
204 points | 135 commentspage 3
wellbehaved 5 hours ago|
"Third, I propose computational antitrust: the principle that market complexity itself is a competitive safeguard, and that regulators should consider computational difficulty as a design parameter."

This "should" is doing a lot of work here. The paper is mainly about a game-theoretic model allegedly corresponding to real markets, but establishing what regulators ought to do requires far more rationale than mere math. It requires a bridge from "is" to "ought." It reminds me of Hume's warning about this kind of non-sequitur:

"In every system of morality, which I have hitherto met with, I have always remarked, that the author proceeds for some time in the ordinary ways of reasoning, ... ; when all of a sudden I am surprised to find, that instead of the usual copulations of propositions, is, and is not, I meet with no proposition that is not connected with an ought, or an ought not. This change is imperceptible; but is however, of the last consequence."

kibwen 5 hours ago||
Keeping in mind the mistake in the HN title (should be "P != NP"), the interesting part of the abstract is this:

> Combined with Maymin (2011), who proved that market efficiency requires P = NP, this yields a fundamental impossibility: markets can be informationally efficient or competitive, but not both.

(Note that Maymin is the author of both papers.)

marcosdumay 5 hours ago||
Yet neither paper seems to eliminate the case of markets being neither. So both titles are incorrect.
iwontberude 5 hours ago||
Yeah using time complexity for computers to describe markets is simultaneously awesome and stupid.
marcosdumay 5 hours ago||
The idea that markets are an optimizing algorithm is kinda old already, and well established.

Both papers seem to be jokes about it, based on complete caricatures of competitiveness and efficiency. It's kinda like a recent paper that was posted here proving "general intelligence" impossible while ignoring that humans exist.

argv_empty 5 hours ago||
Except Maymin 2011 fails to even establish that his narrow definition of "markets are efficient" (specifically, finding a profitable technical analysis) is actually in NP.
z3c0 3 hours ago||
> Artificial intelligence, by expanding firms' computational capabilities, is pushing markets from the competitive regime toward the collusive regime, explaining the empirical emergence of algorithmic collusion without explicit coordination.

Wow... this is quite fascinating. It has been theorized for a little while that widespread AI could form accidental trusts due to optimization around one-another. This seems to be taking it a step further and arguing that if P!=NP, then markets are certain to trend towards collusive.

vlovich123 5 hours ago||
> the collusion detection problem is computationally infeasible for markets satisfying a natural instance-hardness condition on their demand structure, rendering punishment threats non-credible and collusion unstable.

And yet we’ve clearly observed stable price fixing cartels. Maybe the word “unstable” means too much or the game theory model used doesn’t describe the real world accurately. When theory is contradicted by the evidence, it would be wise to consider the theory is flawed.

moomin 5 hours ago||
I suspect this is a standard mathematical “it is computationally impossible to do this in the general case despite it being entirely feasible in many cases”.
narnarpapadaddy 5 hours ago|||
Game theory here is applied to two fundamental market theorems. It’s a way to analyze the validity of those assumptions, rather than to build a new model. Empirical evidence to the contrary is expected given mutually inconsistent premises, which is what the author’s results predict. The author has simply used game theory math to disprove economist math.
nok22kon 5 hours ago||
where do nuclear weapons fit in? do they make markets more/less efficient/competitive?
narnarpapadaddy 4 hours ago|||
Way above my pay grade. I’m not an expert in game theory, economics, warfare, or nuclear proliferation. :)
lstodd 4 hours ago|||
Where do conventional weapons fit it?

Nuclear has been in maintenance mode for so long that there are doubts about if anyone could right now detonate one without shitting their pants on account if it would even go off.

roblabla 5 hours ago|||
Or maybe the markets are actually proof that P = NP :^)
silentmafia 5 hours ago||
Or, P=NP
elendilm 4 hours ago||
[flagged]
philipwhiuk 5 hours ago||
[dead]
bobkb 5 hours ago|
This gave me shivers