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Posted by martinald 1 day ago

GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse(martinalderson.com)
664 points | 449 commentspage 7
jeremyjh 12 hours ago|
If you use a good harness or add the right tools and plugins both the image and web search issues mentioned are non-issues.

oh-my-pi (omp.sh) handles images for text models out of the box - as long as you have any vision capable provider enabled, it will be used when you paste images to a text model. Rather than let it guess I configured it to use MiniMax M3 for this task (as well as other utility tasks like code exploration & library functions).

opencode has plugins that do the same thing, but I haven't used it since picking up omp and haven't tried them.

In open harnesses you can also configure your search provider(s) separately from the model provider - if you've got a ChatGPT sub you can use just their websearch for example. I've been using Kagi's API and found its cheap enough not to matter to me at all.

As for slowness, I'm not sure I'm really seeing that in terms of wall clock time. The author says GLM uses more tokens for reasoning but doesn't explain how they know that - frontier models don't provide nearly the entire reasoning trace. I have the suspicion that the author is not aware of that fact. I use Opus with Claude Code for work and I find it subjectively slower because I can't read its CoT trace. That is another HUGE benefit of GLM: I can't tell you how many times I've seen it start to go sideways in its CoT - usually due to something I didn't tell it - and I just stop it and give a course correction rather than wait a whole turn.

Overall I agree with the takes from the article and frankly its sad how much cope I see on Twitter (and even here) from people that think AI coding is busted once subscription subsidies are dropped. GLM is already good enough and cheap enough to use it at API rates - but it is MUCH more expensive than other open models that are also very nearly good enough.

In twelve months I'm confident you'll be able to get equivalent results at API rates for less than $1 per million output tokens, and more likely that will happen in six months. Deepseek v4 Pro is already almost there (and at only $0.85/MM) - and at least on benchmarks its already better than GLM 5.1 which I was happily using quite a lot before 5.2 dropped. I haven't tried Deepseek since I already have a z.ai pro sub that I locked in for $30 - at $72 its a lot less compelling.

aussieguy1234 1 day ago||
I would not be unsurprised if the US govt steps in to prevent this. They'll do anything to stop China getting ahead in the AI race.

There's the sanctions already implemented, next step might be giving these companies government funding, just like they do with military companies.

kzrdude 10 hours ago||
Don't Anthropic and OpenAI both already have military contracts? They are already growing into that fabric I think.
yomismoaqui 23 hours ago||
Good luck trying to enforce that outside of the US.
aussieguy1234 19 hours ago||
I posted this some time ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48759668

Singapore seized a mansion due to Nvidia chip smuggling. So there are some countries that will enforce sanctions.

TacticalCoder 22 hours ago||
> Where it gets really scary for the frontier labs is how easy it is to migrate to open weights models. Both Z.ai and Fireworks offer both an OpenAI compatible and Anthropic compatible endpoint. This makes it absolutely trivial to use with Claude Code and Codex.

Yes the ease of switching is greatly appreciated.

Now the reason I tolerate Claude Code in my tmux sessions is because apparently Anthropic ain't playing nice with the subscription plans and other harnesses.

But I'm evaluating pi.dev atm and it looks amazing. To me being able to rid of that piece of vibe-coded underperforming, characters-modifying, turd that Claude Code is a big motivation to switch to GLM (I'll probably keep my OpenAI subscription as OpenAI repeatedly said they were cool with other harnesses).

It's also quite obvious that Claude Code is receiving new vibe-coded slop features after vibe-coded slop features in an attempt to lock you in.

To anyone thinking about switching to GLM: I'd say at least evaluate pi.dev and see if that wouldn't be an opportunity to kiss Claude Code and its "gameloop that converts characters from a headless browser to other characters to show in a terminal at 60 fps" goodbye once and for all.

sroerick 19 hours ago|
Pi.dev is great and with only a little customization made even previous gen open weights feel superior.

It also doesn't feel like they're trying to sell me on transhumanism all the time.

It also doesn't get mysteriously downgraded. It's just consistent, even before 5.2.

5.2 is great in a lot of ways - but it's best quality is that it gives some pushback and isn't nearly as synchophantic

0xbadcafebee 1 day ago||
Yes, margin on model inference is high with some providers. If you just wanted inference (at cost), you'd buy a GPU, or rent one from AWS or Microsoft. But you're not paying OpenAI/Anthropic for inference. You're paying them for a platform. Every feature OpenAI/Anthropic bake into their applications, models, online services, etc - anything that isn't pure LLM text generation - is a custom integrated add-on service that LLM weights do not include. Even if open weights became cheaper and better than OpenAI/Anthropic, most people would still pay for OpenAI/Anthropic, because they give you things the weights alone don't give you.

Comparing Z.ai GLM 5.2 to Claude Code w/Opus 4.8 is like comparing Linux Kernel 7.0 to Microsoft Windows 11. If you don't know much about computers, you'd say these are the same things. If you know a lot about computers, you know the latter has a thousand extra things that make a huge difference in what it does out of the box. Which one you use speaks to what kind of customer you are.

Sure, GLM 5.2 doesn't have vision; but an AI power user can plumb together any VLM with the text generation of GLM 5.2 in most AI harnesses, just like a Linux power user can combine the Linux kernel with KDE Desktop. Most people don't use Linux and KDE, because it's unpopular, difficult to use, hard to get support for. Instead they pay for Windows or Mac, because there's lots of support, with a giant company pouring money and effort into filling all the usability gaps, making it seamless.

Most people don't pay for the cheapest possible thing. They pay for the thing they can afford that improves their life while making it easier. An open weight alone is almost completely unusable by itself (like the Linux kernel), compared to an AI platform (a completely usable system). If you're constantly wondering about when open weights will reach parity with OpenAI/Anthropic, you're a Linux person. If you just pay $20/$50/$100 for OpenAI/Anthropic without thinking about it, you're a Windows/Mac person. There is nothing wrong with either of these groups, but they are fundamentally different, and always will be. An LLM weight is simply a different category of thing than an entire AI platform/provider.

jmyeet 23 hours ago||
I think OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are going to envy the dinosaurs because there's not asteroid coming for them, there's three:

1. There will be no moat around frontier AI models in the future. China is going to make sure that happens. It's a national security interest for them. DeepSeek was the first shot across the bow for that but it won't end with them. There are other labs and there are non-Chinese actors too. The stratospheric valuations depend on there being that moat; and

2. Nobody seems to be considering what the next generation of AI hardware is going to do with current hyperscalar investments. We're about to go through this with the B100/200 move to R100/200 but a lot of the investments are probably slated for that next-gen. But what about 3 years from now when the hypothetical X100/200 comes out and doubles FLOPS and halves performance-per-watt. What will that do to existing investments? Some people are delusional and think that they'll get 10 years out of GPUs when 10 year old GPUs (eg V100) are sold for scrap and 5 year old GPUs (A100) cannot run DeepSeek v4 Pro. And people think the A100 is going to get another 5 years of use? No; and

3. Local LLMs are coming for remote usage. You can buy a 5090 PC for less than $5000 currently but you're limited to 32GB of VRAM, which will comfortably run 31B models but nothing really larger. Go to $12-13k to upgrade to an RTX 8000 Pro and you have 96GB of VRAM, which will run larger models (but certainly not, say, DS v4 Pro or even Flash). You have shared video memory products rapidly coming from NVidia's aggressive market segmentation. Things like Strix Halo and DGX Spark have severe limits on memory bandwidth (<300GB/s compared to 1.8TB/s for a 5090/6000 Pro and 3TB/s+ for server grade HBM3e/4 based GPUs). Macs could be real interesting in this space butr they lack the raw FLOPS with the M5 generation.

But what will this local hardware look like in 2-3 years? I think people will be shocked at how much better it will be with the Apple M7 Pro/Max generation (2028 expected) and the RTX 6000 cards at that time although I fully expect NVidia consumer GPUs to still top out at 32GB of VRAM to maintain that segmentation. And I look forward to what the next generation of the AMD Ryzen AI Halo platform will look like if they really try.

All of this adds up to these three companies needing to cash out before the music stops (IMHO).

port3000 15 hours ago||
Interesting, so point 2 means that a lot of the hardware being installed now won't be able to run the frontier models of 2029? How does that change the demand for compute/models in the future, I can imagine that even if OpenAI/Anthropic have a moat in 2029 there will be so much older hardware and such a hangover from that investment boom that there will be very little installed capacity that can run it
regularfry 16 hours ago||
On 1 and 3, the obvious move is to shift the bulk of the harness behind a new API that's not based on raw LLM access. Then they get to hide secret sauce behind that API and all three go from commodity to premium while simultaneously being able to try out whatever tricks they can get away with to reduce their own inference costs. I'm almost surprised this hasn't happened already.
jillesvangurp 20 hours ago||
I think the fixation on numbers of tokens and dollars per token is missing the point a bit. LLMs are quite useless without good tools. The article calls out search as one of them. And it's important. If you are coding, the tools are relatively easy: they are mostly open source and don't have a lot of authorization logic around them. Anyone with access to python and some access to a half decent AI model can pull together a decent agentic coding tool. There are many examples out there.

But if you look at the overall market, there's a rapid shift happening to non-coding tools and non programmer users starting to become very active. This kicked off beginning of the year with Claude Cowork. OpenAIs Codex and ChatGPT (they both have the same plugin infrastructure) is doing a lot of the same things. I've talked to a lot of non technical business users in recent months. There's a growing amount of people who definitely have zero interest in programming starting to use these tools and getting value out of them. This is going to rapidly scale to essentially most white collar users. Programming tools are becoming a side show to this market.

The difference here is that these people need connections to all their favorite protected data SAAS silos: MS office, Sales Force, Outlook, Gmail & GSuite, Calendar, SAP, Oracle, etc. The moat here is very different: it's mediated access to these silos in a compliant way. Anthropic announced a solution in the form of some MCP features. Those features boil down to getting access to all your favorite silos, if you sign in with the right identity provider. What's the right identity provider? The one that's whitelisted by the data silos you are locked into. Okta seems to have weaseled themselves into a position of power here. And it's all the other usual suspects. We'll see who is going to "win" that race but I bet it's going to be a pretty exclusive club with zero outsiders from China on that list. You can hack your way around some of those limitations. But doing so in a compliant way is going to be tricky.

And that's before you consider who's going to pay for this and what they are going to insist on. Corporate IT departments & data security policy compliance basically. What's the moat here? Secure & compliant access to all your favorite silos. Here in the EU that also includes data residency. The difference between sending all your data to Silicon Valley or Beijing is that of getting stabbed or getting shot. If it leaves the EU, you have a huge compliance issue. Most of the juicy corporate LLM usage is going to have to be fully compliant. I.e. hosted and controlled in the EU. This will be the same across the world. The least important choice right now is which model you use. The most important ones are about where those models run and what tools the models running there have access to and how that is governed.

On paper, OpenAI, Anthropic, MS, and Google are pretty well positioned here. Not necessarily in that order. Most others are still figuring it out. But they'll have a moat of data center ownership in the right regions + mediated tool access that works out of the box.

zuzululu 1 day ago||
i would use glm 5.2 if the servers weren't in china

i mean i guess my employers wouldn't know the difference

but i'd like to play it safe and keep everything in america

kristianp 17 hours ago||
If you look at https://openrouter.ai/z-ai/glm-5.2#providers there's about 28 providers, including z.ai and Alibaba. Most outside of China. I've never seen so many providers for a model on there before, glm 5.2 is popular.
zuzululu 8 hours ago||
thanks I see cloudflare has it. I will give glm 5.2 a try
tarpitt 1 day ago||
its open-weight. I think you can find a host for GLM-5.2 in the USA
s8kur 10 hours ago||
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Pakvothe 11 hours ago||
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DIHCAPITAL 8 hours ago|
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