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Posted by speckx 4 hours ago

98% Isn't Much(whynothugo.nl)
351 points | 245 comments
wccrawford 4 hours ago|
Alternatively, 98% is plenty.

If your business plan requires you to capitalize on more than 98% of the market, it's already a failure. It'll never happen.

As always, it's an "it depends" situation. If your userbase is largely luddites, then maybe you need to support 10+ year old browsers that can't be updated. Otherwise, you can probably just worry about people who are using computers new enough to actually update their browser once a year or better.

The tradeoff is code complexity and engineering time, vs having a larger market. And that's going to be an individual situation for every company.

dataviz1000 2 hours ago||
Former chef here (2 Michelin starred restaurants).

5% is beyond plenty; it is awesome!

> works for 98% of the population, that means that it won’t work for ~150 million people

If I can only cook for 70 people a night, I most likely can't serve the ~150 million people who do not have access to modern browsers. And, those who do have access to those browsers and choose not use those browsers likely will not enjoy my food either. I don't need to make 8 billion people happy for my restaurant to survive. I only need to make ~1000 people happy who keep returning for anniversaries, birthdays, and the pure enjoyment of creativity with food.

I was a yacht chef for years and only needed to make 10 people happy. The technique I used was everyone eats the same thing, crew and guests. Saving money doing my own shopping instead of relying on provisioning companies that would send me food not handled correctly, my monthly expense went from ~$30k to ~$10k when guests are on board a month -- food in St. Barts was flown in from France everyday and expensive, circa 2005, so I could afford to serve the chateaubriand, osso bucco, and everything else to the crew. Therefore, what I wanted to eat everyday which likely was balanced, had lots of fiber, and healthier choices was the thing that everyone ate everyday.

People ask if the guests and owners would tell me what they want to eat everyday. The Mister was CEO of a fortune 500 company and when retired still chairman of the board. This guy was making billion dollar decisions everyday and the Mrs. was very busy also. The last thing they want to do is answer what is for dinner every night. They delegated the decision making to me. I always cooked what I wanted to eat and was always correct.

It is impossible to make everyone happy. Don't try -- it will break you.

explodingwaffle 2 hours ago||
man, HN is awesome
fndkfkt 2 hours ago||
[dead]
hn_throwaway_99 2 hours ago|||
Yeah, when I read the article I thought "Great, more paternalistic advice that pretends we have infinite resources/time/money."

Anyone who has ever done website or mobile development knows there is a huge array of browsers and platforms, and supporting the very long tail of configurations is sometimes nearly impossible, let alone almost never cost effective. When I last ran some web apps, we'd see substantial numbers of errors just due to f'd up (or sometimes outright malicious) browser plugins. I'm not checking every random configuration of browser plugins against my website to ensure they all work.

Like you say, it really depends, which is why I hate blanket directives like the article gave. If suddenly 2% of people couldn't log into gmail, that would be a huge deal affecting 10s of millions of people. As the adage goes, "You're not Google", and for a lot of small e-commerce websites trying to fix someone on some decade+ old browser just doesn't make sense (and, as another comment mentioned, these users are often the least likely to convert in any case).

throwaway173738 2 hours ago|||
He wasn’t actually giving a blanket directive. The article was suggesting that you think about whether 98% is actually good in your use case by doing the math and thinking.
Eridrus 2 hours ago|||
Yeah, but the guy writing the article seems to be bad at math and thinking.

Can I imagine a venue kicking out 2% of their former clients on some criteria? Absolutely yes.

Kicking out 2% of website visitors may still be totally reasonable if the cost to serve them is meaningful, or if they are less than 2% of revenue.

His defense for 98% being bad is that some CSS thing people were arguing about only had 70% coverage on his website.

Our b2b dashboard didn't support Safari for a while at all and it was entirely not an issue because everyone had a simple workaround to just use Chrome and the dashboard wasn't really the main product.

hn_throwaway_99 2 hours ago||||
Except there was 0 analysis of the cost/benefit of supporting the end of the long tail, instead it was just economics-free shaming. Of course, you want to see who those 2% of users actually are. But nowhere in this article did I find any advice I'd actually want to use in a really business scenario.
s3p 1 hour ago|||
I mean the name was "98% isn't much" and the article made it sound like 98% isn't good enough
ryandrake 2 hours ago|||
Respectfully: To me these just sound like excuses.

I can write a web page that works correctly on all browsers. We all can. That web page won't do much of anything, but it's possible. So, there is a baseline "target subset of HTML/CSS" that gives you 100% coverage. From there, it's purely developer choice: When you add something, are you choosing technology that is widely available and supported, or are you choosing to throw 0.N% of users under the bus for some benefit (development speed/comfort)? Obviously, it's a trade-off, and no final product is going to work on 100% of configurations. All these choices deliberately made during development add up to the product you deliver at the end of the day. All I'm asking is that we recognize browser/platform incompatibility/inaccessibility as choices and not some inherent property of software.

When a developer says "it's too expensive to develop this for a dozen configurations" that just means they have already chosen to make their applications inaccessible, and are justifying it after the fact.

dfabulich 1 hour ago|||
The inherent property of software is that the only way to be sure your software works on a particular platform is to test on that platform.

There is not a baseline target subset of HTML/CSS that reaches 100% coverage that can be statically verified. HTML tables usually work in old browsers, but there were subtle bugs in old versions of Internet Explorer, bugs that you're especially likely to hit if you're using tables for layout (because you can't use modern CSS layout features). The only way to be sure that you didn't trigger one of those subtle bugs is to test your web app on ancient browsers.

The cost of reaching the last 0.N% of users rises with each platform you add to your test matrix. It costs money to test your web app on Internet Explorer. It costs even more money to fix bugs that only affect Internet Explorer.

I think you can't deny that doing that work is expensive. The question then has to be whether that work will repay itself somehow. But the last 0.N% of users will only provide ~0.N% increases to your revenue. Unless your revenue is astronomical, you can't afford even one full-time engineer to test and fix bugs on 0.N% of browsers.

ToucanLoucan 29 minutes ago||
But again you're flattening all browser compatibility into ancient browsers that 10 people use and saying closing the end of that gap is far too difficult to justify the time and expense required, but what exactly are we talking about there? What broke? Can people on IE6 get the majority of the content but the subscription popup is broken, or does the page fail to render entirely and leave them completely high and dry?

It's impossible for me to engage with this thought experiment without thinking of hundreds, perhaps thousands of sites I've been to (their provider rhymes with Rare Mace) where literally nothing works without JavaScript, and I don't mean animations are broken or images look funny, I mean the website is a white fucking screen because literally everything is loaded in via esoteric new JS frameworks which aren't firing because the engine choked on an analytics package and died before it even got that far, and that site is showing...

... text. Formatted text. With perhaps some pictures. And animations nobody outside of marketing cares about.

So like, is your site broken because it's legitimately cutting edge shit, doing difficult work, and providing an answer to a complex user problem? Okay cool, IE6 support is probably not a high priority, I agree. Or, is it an utterly run-of-the-mill ad for your company's services, that was made incorrectly by people who don't know what they're doing, and/or have overengineered it beyond recognition of the actual problem it was trying to solve? If it's that one, then put your shiny toys down, rebuilt it simply and with regular tooling, and THEN see how your IE6 compatibility is doing.

I'll tell you this much: I've NEVER tested for IE6 on my personal website. I just did. Navigation is a bit wonky and my blur filter effects are broken, obviously. But you can still read my posts and navigate about.

anoneng 2 hours ago|||
This goes to show you’ve never been anywhere near the actual development cycle of a real-world front-end web application. “So, there is a baseline "target subset of HTML/CSS" that gives you 100% coverage.” Oh really? Which subset? Which “HTML/CSS?” And 100%? Absolutely laughable.
drdeca 1 hour ago||
Do you know any browsers which don’t support https://motherfuckingwebsite.com/ (if you remove the google traffic tracking js that’s iirc tacked on at the end of the page (or maybe I’m thinking of better mfing website (which adds a tiny bit of css)? Idr.)) ?

I get that asking a commercial website to be as basic/supported as that website is a big ask. I don’t think the other commenter was saying that such websites should reach 100%, only that they should start from there and sacrifice only as much as is necessary.

pavon 1 hour ago|||
That is neglecting network effects. Less than 10% of the US population is vegetarian, but if a restaurant doesn't have any vegetarian options they lose business not just from that 10% but from any party that has a single vegetarian. Likewise, if a website has any social network effect, disregarding a portion of the population will decrease use from a much larger percentage than those directly affected.

Furthermore, even if your site functionality has no social networking component itself, all business are subject to the network effects of word of mouth. People are much more likely to share negative experiences that positive ones, so if 1/50 of people find your site to be broken, then a considerable amount of feedback online will be negative and will harm your reputation for the entire market, not just that 2%.

Finally, in business you have to work hard to win over even a small portion of your total addressable market. Artificially decreasing your TAM can be fine if it is an intentional strategic decision to focus on a specific market, but pointless to exclude people without good reason. Not having vegetarian options at BBQ restaurant in Texas is harmless - no one goes there for that, but if you are running a more general restaurant it would be foolish not to have a few vegetarian options. Excluding people because your web developers are too lazy to use approaches that have worked fine for the last 20 years and need to use the new shiny is even more foolish.

itake 4 hours ago|||
Unfortunately some business are critical where is not an option or very expensive for someone to not use it.

For example, Uber, a Visa immigration website, low cost air carrier booking site, etc.

mmmattt 4 hours ago|||
Yeah but as long as they’re not public services, the business can just decide to not serve these clients. There’s no recourse possible for these clients.
mrhottakes 1 hour ago||
That's what a lot of people would call a "bad business decision"
MichaelZuo 3 hours ago||||
Generally most people would consider a viable option to exist even if it’s multiple times the cost…

As long as it’s credibly offered without too many caveats.

igsomething 3 hours ago|||
For public services you can tell people to use another device, or provide a way to schedule an appointment in-person that is accessible using old browsers.
anoneng 2 hours ago|||
Seems like you’re getting hate but this is how the world works. Uber just has to support the devices that their market uses. And especially for visas the government is free to make the public bend to whatever arbitrary requirements they develop for using their byzantine systems.
account42 3 hours ago|||
You you can make a law that requires such businesses to use perfectly good technology standards that are widely supported instead of whatever EEE crap the latest Chrome comes with.
abofh 3 hours ago|||
I remember years ago when websites would have buttons "best viewed in Internet explorer 4.0". We're past those days, but only because it's implied "use chrome, maybe webkit, we didn't test on Firefox"
igsomething 3 hours ago|||
I agree, but one thing is to demand all your users to be on the latest Chrome, and another one is to support browsers that are no longer maintained and contain security issues (IE). If we discourage people from driving old insecure cars, we can also discourage people from using old insecure browsers.
bee_rider 2 hours ago||
Ideally we could section off some minimal baseline functionality that could be implemented more securely than the whole modern stack. Just HTML and a little CSS or something. Then mandate that, at least, services provided by the state should be accessible in this baseline functionality mode.
ngriffiths 4 hours ago|||
It's also super easy to apply it wrong because going above X% in one area normally means sinking below X% in another. I think a clearer way to say it is that sometimes, you have to be almost perfect, and 98% could sound like almost perfect but it's way too low. But definitely the things you don't need to be perfect far outnumber the ones you do.
zero-sharp 4 hours ago|||
I like how you equate 10 year old browser users with luddites?
bradleybuda 4 hours ago|||
It’s very difficult for the average person to use a ten year old browser; in fact I’d offer that the only way to use a ten year old browser is to be an expert and do so intentionally.
londons_explore 4 hours ago|||
There are plenty of people with old android phones with no free disk space using ancient browsers.

There are plenty of people still using windows 10 with updates turned off or wedged for whatever reason.

These people just use the sites that work. They aren't computer experts, and might not even realise why half the internet doesn't work - they just think that's the way things are.

ben_w 3 hours ago|||
While I agree with your general gist and definitely your final paragraph,

> There are plenty of people with old android phones with no free disk space using ancient browsers.

How many people have 10 year old phones? I've got an 8 year old iPhone XR which I keep around as a backup/travel device because it's not worth selling, and the battery is… not happy even in airplane mode.

For me to have a 10 year old mobile browser, I'd have to have kept the iPhone SE 1 (or was it a 5c?) that I bought second hand in 2018, and not upgraded it since I bought it. I got rid of it because the battery wouldn't hold a charge for 10 minutes.

alternatex 2 hours ago||||
I've a Xiaomi Mi 6 phone (2017 model) that I still use as a fridge-mounted shopping list and it's using the latest version of Chrome. I think it would be quite the stretch to find a user using a 10 year old browser.
lukasbm 3 hours ago||||
I am an expert and half the internet does not work. That's just the way things are
Macha 1 hour ago||||
Eventually you are making things worse for your vast majority of users when you have to e.g. make them install a native app for a video call or use a TLS version that is broken to support those Gingerbread Android phones
zarzavat 3 hours ago||||
It's fine to support such configurations by accident, but you shouldn't try to support them intentionally. You will end up dropping support eventually regardless but the skeletons will live on in your codebase as tech debt.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

mattmatheus 2 hours ago|||
I'm not sure this is a realistic use case to try and support. A 10 year old android phone likely has a battery life measured in 10s of minutes, and really isn't something we need to worry about.
swiftcoder 1 hour ago||
You get the guy at the mall to swap in a new battery for $50 in most parts of the world. Its cheaper to do that every few years than buy a new phone, and I have several family members who refuse to upgrade on principle, because modern phones grew too large for their hands/pockets
londons_explore 1 hour ago||
Usually you get a guy at the mall to swap in a new battery for $10.

For $50 you can buy a whole new phone (refurb that is 4 yrs old from some other country)

mananaysiempre 4 hours ago||||
There’s also being poor, or working for an organization that’s poor. In both cases the obsolete(?) software might be various degrees of intentional, but the alternative is usually worse anyway.
jollyllama 4 hours ago||||
That's a choice by the people who make websites and browsers that forces the average person to buy a new computer. If we all cared about letting people use old computers, this wouldn't be the case.
esrauch 3 hours ago||
I wouldn't conflate old computers and old browsers. I still use an over 10 year old laptop and it still has a latest browser.
anoneng 2 hours ago||
Right. That problem is bloat, not lack of legacy support. Adding (already bloated) legacy support to already bloated software just makes bloat worse.
compiler-guy 1 hour ago||||
I support a bevy of older people with older computers, senior-citizen types. Upgrades are expensive. Monetarily, but also in retraining. These folks don't want the latest UI, they want what is familiar, and retraining is super annoying.

Computers that were EOL a few years ago, running ten-year-old browsers, are absolutely routine.

intrasight 4 hours ago||||
I doubt that for the hackernews audience that the age of the browsers is an issue. I would say in practice that 90% is nowhere near what is achieved - that it's closer to 90% and amongst the hackernews audience probably lucky if it gets to 50% because of our use of anti-tracking and ad blockers.
swiftcoder 1 hour ago||||
Respectfully, you may live in a bubble of fairly tech-savvy folks. Most of my extended family run 10+ year old laptops as their daily drivers. Their phones are often on the second or third battery replacement. They don't install updates very often (if at all). For the most part they are still more proficient with tech than many of their peers.
troupo 4 hours ago|||
Or use a smart TV (most apps on TVs are web apps. Enjoy: https://developer.samsung.com/smarttv/develop/specifications...
__alexs 2 hours ago||||
The same way people generally equate luddism with anything. By entirely misunderstanding what it was to make a point that sounds snappy without all of that boring understanding history stuff.
jawilson2 3 hours ago||||
Ha, I had the same thought, if you actually know the history of Luddites vs the more colloquial usage of "someone who hates all technology."
pixl97 4 hours ago|||
Well, being these days that a browser over 5 minutes old probably has a security flaw, it's not much of a reach.
SoftTalker 2 hours ago|||
Most managers I've had preached the "80/20" rule, so 80% was good enough.
steego 4 hours ago|||
I’ll go even further.

Sometimes you want to give certain people an incentive to not be your customers because your company would be entirely better off if they were someone else’s customer.

boelboel 3 hours ago||
This is why discounts are often a bad way to get customers, you don't want the customers who (only) go for discounts, they're often worse (and not just their sensitivity to prices).
dd8601fn 3 hours ago||
A lesson taught to millions of businesses by GroupOn.
mrhottakes 1 hour ago|||
Plenty for who/what? I think you've assumed a bunch of facts that aren't true for every situation.
dheera 1 hour ago|||
For most businesses, yes.

If you're the national railway and your ticket purchase website doesn't work for 2% of the population, that's kind of shitty to those people.

This is sadly very common across many public infrastructure websites and apps.

robalni 3 hours ago|||
This is not just a question of browser age.

I use a browser that had its last release less than a year ago. It doesn't do CSS, it doesn't do javascript and I love it. I also love to be able to use the websites I need.

anoneng 2 hours ago||
I love lynx as much as anyone but it is ludicrous to expect webapp developers to support no script and no CSS.
robalni 2 hours ago||
Expect is not what I do but I fight for it.
rafterydj 4 hours ago|||
If your business plan is selling software to people, 98% is not plenty at all.

If your web app crashes one out of every fifty times I launch it, it's not good. The business side of things is reasonable to prioritize right up until it isn't.

bell-cot 3 hours ago||
> If your web app crashes one out of every fifty times I launch it,

If you're using a different, random browser every time you access our web app, you're in a minority far smaller than 2%. Or you've shared your account with 50 friends, and we'd prefer that you do that with someone else's app anyway.

miltonlost 4 hours ago|||
Yes, the article discusses how 98% is good in context and bad in others. You just... restated the article but reversed the premise, resulting in an overly optimistic yet anti-social framing.
Tarq0n 1 hour ago||
That's a very mercenary attitude. If less than 2% of your (potential) users had a particular disability, would you implement accessibility features for them without being forced to? I'd argue that it's the right thing to do. Some restrictions like using an old browser may be more or less a choice, but it's still a much better look to be inclusive.
nemo1618 2 hours ago||
After Christmas this year, I removed the tree from our living room, and in the process of being moved, it shed of needles everywhere. I swept them up, but I missed a few areas on my first pass. So I did a second pass, but when I looked again, I saw there were still a handful left. It struck me how removing >99% of the needles was nowhere near acceptable! Lots of cleaning jobs are like this, I suppose, because even a tiny mess can be visually distinct. In fact, as you approach 100%, the remaining mess stands out more.
dizhn 37 minutes ago||
It's like those antibacterial soaps that remove 99.9 percent of bacteria. It's not obvious whether that's number of bacteria or type of bacteria but either way the remaining ones are probably in the millions and of many types.
betenoire 2 hours ago||
exactly how I feel every time I weed the yard. I'll end up with a pile of weeds, look over my work and see weeds everywhere still
boogieknite 2 hours ago||
then close my eyes to go to sleep 10 hours later and see them all again
MatekCopatek 4 hours ago||
While I agree with the general sentiment, the problem here isn't developers not being familiar with statistics, it's the simple fact all of this is profit driven most of the time.

I tried to purchase tickets for an event last week. I had to go through Ticketmaster as it was the only official way. They forced me to verify my account using a phone number, but whoever they were using for messages wasn't able to deliver a code to my number. I tried a few numbers from our household and they all failed.

Searching for this issue yielded a bunch of results, so it was definitely a known issue, but there wasn't anything I could do, really. To them, it's simple math. Another SMS provider that covers my (tiny EU) country might be more expensive. They might be avoiding scammers that used my mobile operator in the past. Whatever it is, it would probably cost them more than they lose in ticket sales.

Without some government entity to force them, they don't give a shit about me being able to see an event.

Certhas 4 hours ago||
Infrastructure should not be (purely) profit driven. To improve profits for train operators, the simple option is to cut lines serving small and rural communities. The economics are much worse than serving large cities. Same for cell coverage and broadband internet. Most profitable is to just not cover a few percent of the population.

There is a point where technology becomes foundational for participating in society. And then it needs to be regulated to be available to everyone.

groundzeros2015 4 hours ago|||
> the simple option is to cut lines serving small and rural communities

We don’t see this in practice to though. Three examples:

1. In the airline industry big airlines don’t go everywhere for this reasons but small local airlines fill the gap due to market opportunity.

2. Changes in technology enable big companies to operate more efficiently. See starlink.

3. Big companies know that ubiquity is important for their brand. In practice Amazon will deliver packages across the US.

card_zero 3 hours ago|||
Meanwhile in Britain in the 1960s, this cost-cutting closure of local rail lines did happen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beeching_cuts ... at a time when the trains and rail infrastructure had been publicly owned for about 15 years already. It doesn't dispel the incentive.
BoxOfRain 3 hours ago|||
I have never heard the name Beeching spoken with more venom than in Wales, I used to live in Mid Wales and now I live in Cardiff. If I wanted to visit where I used to live by train, I'd have to do a multi-hour detour of a sightseeing trip around the West Midlands, deep into England. The Beeching Axe literally cut Wales in half and the consequences are felt to this day, even though there wasn't much outright salting the Earth to make sure the terrible decision couldn't be reversed as there was in some cases, the Welsh government doesn't have the money to reinstate the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line which would deal with a lot of these north-south issues.

Also it's not just Wales where Beeching carried out intense vandalism of public infrastructure, the South West was severely affected too. Basically anywhere that wasn't London-centric suffered, which is the British government to a T regardless of the party in power. The general assumption was that private cars would replace the local trains, which as someone who currently doesn't drive for medical reasons really makes my blood boil. While perhaps not in intent, in effect the Beeching Axe was a profound kick in the teeth for the disabled.

groundzeros2015 3 hours ago|||
I’m not arguing a rail has never been closed. I’m arguing that being a small difficult market doesn’t exclude you from being served by marketed forces.

Did nobody ever operate rail to those cities again due to them being rural?

card_zero 3 hours ago||
Rural cities? Come again? What was demolished remained demolished, yes. Unclear on your point.

Oh I see (thanks to that edit). I mean, I agree with you. This is just the additional amusing detail that government-run services are still subject to a sort of dulled and homogenous version of market forces, which can be worse for small local concerns because it's less responsive. Though, admittedly, a giant corporation can simulate government very well, and can be just as crap.

groundzeros2015 3 hours ago||
It’s confirmed in the opening summary:

> A few of these routes have since reopened. Some short sections have been preserved as heritage railways, while others have been incorporated into the National Cycle Network or used for road schemes

> Some, such as the bulk of the Midland Metro network around Birmingham and Wolverhampton, have since been incorporated into light rail lines.

Furthermore, the transformation to other transportation forms suggests this event also coincides with changing technology.

christina97 1 hour ago||||
The airline industry gets huge subsidies in most countries to operate more rural/less profitable routes. Most of the passenger airports in the US for instance would not be viable without subsidies (most flights go to a few profitable hubs, but the long tail or airports forms the majority by count).

Amazon delivers everywhere because USPS subsidizes package delivery to unprofitable areas. You don’t get next day prime except in a relatively small proportion of the country (by area).

derektank 2 hours ago||||
>In the airline industry big airlines don’t go everywhere for this reasons but small local airlines fill the gap due to market opportunity.

You’re not wrong, but small and rural airports would not be able to maintain even these routes without EAS (essential air services) subsidies

miltonlost 4 hours ago|||
You cut off the OP's sentence of that being examples for "Rail companies" and then added your own examples. Please be better at comprehesion and editing comments

"In practice Amazon will deliver packages across the US." You know they use the Postal Service for last miles often? And the Postal Service is required by law to service far-flung places. So Amazon is only, in practice, delivering packages to those places due to USPS.

groundzeros2015 3 hours ago||
> then added your own examples. Please be better at comprehesion and editing comments

Did you miss the part where the conversation was about Ticketmaster and rails were used as an analogy for understanding the problem?

> So Amazon is only, in practice, delivering packages to those places due to USPS.

I don’t think that’s true as I can buy many things on Amazon which cannot be shipped via USPS.

account42 2 hours ago|||
Yes, we need to update what is considered essential infrastructure in the digital age.
ryandrake 2 hours ago|||
Yea, when this topic comes up on HN, a lot of the usual excuses appear: It's hard to write software that works everywhere! It takes too long to test on more than one browser! It's too expensive to hire someone to port to X platform! We're trying to bootstrap in a hurry--there's no time to support Y people! Everybody should just upgrade to the latest, why should we test on older systems?

These are attitudes come from the privilege of never having been in that 2% of users, and I think we have them until that one day we end up being in that 2% and can't use the system ourselves.

When I wrote iOS apps, I was constantly infuriated by the tech lead's and product management's insistence to only support the current major OS version and the previous one. Engineers would take time out of their day to rip out support for iOS X-2 (rather than fixing bugs, working on performance or features)! Code that wasn't in the way of refactors, wasn't really buggy, wasn't harming anything architecturally. To me, it just looked like Griefing The User. I didn't get it and I still don't. Now, I have a 8 year old phone, and lo and behold, half of the apps in the AppStore don't even work on it anymore because of this attitude, so I guess I'm firmly in the 2%.

groundzeros2015 3 hours ago||
I think when you say “profit motivated” the underlying principle is actually utilitarianism; doing the most good for the most people, for which profit Is merely an imperfect proxy.
MatekCopatek 2 hours ago||
This might be a cynical take, but I doubt Ticketmaster (and most of these other examples) are motivated by doing the most good. Their underlying principle is extracting the most value for shareholders at any cost.

Some people argue even that behavior ends up producing the most good, but I cannot accept that level of mental gymnastics.

groundzeros2015 2 hours ago||
There is a limited amount of engineering resources. Don’t you agree they should try to use them for the benefit of the most people? That’s not to say they should exclude groups. But a small minority path probably gets less work than a main path. Would you agree these prudent or not?
phailhaus 3 hours ago||
The broader point is that percentages can be misleading, and are often because of that. It makes things sound better. But usually, the more accurate thing to do is use odds-notation ("1 in 50" instead of 98%). Percentages have a kind of singularity at the edges, where small numerical changes have massive real effects. Going from a success rate of 98% to 99% doesn't sound like much, but that's failing 1 in 50 vs 1 in 100. You've doubled the efficacy.
ryan_n 3 hours ago||
Isn't this pretty much the entire point of the article.
parineum 1 hour ago|||
It's contextual depending on which end of the probability is the desired outcome.

SPF is like this. SPF 30 allows 1/30th (3%) of the UV through it, blocking 29/30ths (97%). SPF 50 (2%) allows 1/50th, blocking 49/50ths (98%). Using the denominator, in this case, expressed the efficacy much more intuitively.

Comparing SPF 30 vs 50 better expresses the increase in efficacy than 97% vs 98% does.

One could also express it as the amount that passes the filter but it is Sun _Protection_ Factor not Sun _Transparency_ Factor.

jrowen 31 minutes ago||
On the other hand, it's completely unintuitive that "Sun Protection Factor 30 = 1/30th of UV light passes through it", and I had no idea there was any correlation before this comment.

The only intuitive bit about that system is "bigger number does more." I feel like I would have more readily understood it if it just said "blocks 97% (or 98%) of UV light" instead of numbers I assumed were somewhat arbitrary.

cubefox 2 hours ago|||
In many cases, odds are indeed better than probabilities, namely when a small difference at the probability edges indicate a large real difference.

But sometimes small differences at the edges are indeed small, particularly for expected values. Say you win 100 dollars with 98% probability vs with 99.9% probability.

The expected value (probability * dollars) of the latter is only slightly higher than the former ($99.9-$98=$1.90) even though the difference in odds is very large: (0.999/0.001)/(0.98/0.02)≈20.39. So the 99.9% probability is odds 999 to 1, 98% probability is 49 to 1, so the former has more than 20 times higher odds, but the expected amount of money you win is almost the same.

AnimalMuppet 3 hours ago|||
No, you've raised the efficacy from 98 to 99, which is not much of a change. What you have done is halved the inefficacy, which is a big change.
steadystate_eng 3 hours ago||
[flagged]
msephton 4 hours ago||
Reminds me of the Meat Loaf song “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad” which was released in Japan as 66%の誘惑 “66% is Good Enough” etc https://www.discogs.com/release/8303076
phishin 4 hours ago||
Greatest thing I’ve learned today. Thank you.
TazeTSchnitzel 4 hours ago||
Isn't 誘惑 more like “allure, temptation, seduction”?
mghackerlady 4 hours ago||
My Japanese is very bad, but I think it would be translated back into english as 'the allure of 66%'
msephton 3 hours ago||
There are many ways to translate it "66% Seduction", "66%'ll do" etc. But debating the translation misses 66% of the point that it's just a fun fact ;)
mghackerlady 3 hours ago||
Of course. I just wanted to flex my (not very good) Japanese skillz B)
msephton 3 hours ago||
I appreciate them! Keep at it :)
maderalabs 3 hours ago||
I think there are broadly two types of problems - ones where you get partial credit, and ones where you don't. The restaurant example is one where you don't get partial credit - 98% of food being safe isn't enough, it's all or nothing. Paying your employees - all or nothing, you miss a paycheck once, it's a huge problem.

CSS on a website, however, you CAN get partial credit (to an extent). It may not be perfect, but it's at least theoretically still providing some value partially.

I think knowing what kind of problem you're facing is really important when it comes to measuring percentage of "complete".

Archer6621 14 minutes ago||
If that 30% of visitors with incompatible browsers has no overlap with the target audience you wish to reach, then what does it matter for your business?

Of course, you do not know this exactly, but the point is that it's easy to look at the wrong statistic and come to conclusions that are not necessarily useful in some context. The lens matters just as much as the percentage, if not more.

Aachen 4 hours ago||
Reminds me of statistic where most customers already stop going to a particular supermarket if it stops carrying a handful of the items they want to buy

It may sound like a small deal to not carry one brand of chocolate paste but if some customers then also don't buy the 12 other groceries they need at your shop, it doesn't really matter that it's only 2% of products that were discontinued. Supermarket products are so stable not because nobody ever makes anything new but because changing a small percentage frustrates customers

If I can't order from some website, I stop trying. Maybe next week the ESR browser gets an update and it works again but by then I'm not clicking those links in the search results

doublepg23 1 hour ago|
Doesn't Aldi work against that theory?
robalni 3 hours ago||
I don't like treating people like numbers. 98% isn't much and it isn't little. It's just wrong.

If I'm one of the 2% then that's everything for me. Maybe I have good reasons to be in the 2%. And maybe, not caring about that is wrong.

I would rather have a website that only works for 2% of people for the right reason, than a website that doesn't work for 2% for the wrong reason.

collinmanderson 3 hours ago|
Part of the problem is The US Government (and UK Government) use the "2% rule" on their websites and only officially support 98%.

I mentioned 3 years ago that Firefox at 2.2% is dangerously close the being unsupported on government websites, and at this point it's now at 1.9%.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36776603

https://analytics.usa.gov/ says "There were 1.66 billion sessions in the last 30 days." - so 2% is 33 million sessions if I did my math right.

swiftcoder 1 hour ago||
Yeah, this is sort of the problem with a percentage-based approach. You are better with a "pick the top 3 implementations" in most cases - that bags you Webkit, Blink, and Gecko in the browser example, and since we're ignoring the long-tail in either case, that's probably good enough
criddell 55 minutes ago||
If they drop support of Firefox, does that mean they would actively block Firefox?
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