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Posted by kschaul 2 days ago

AI 2040: Plan A(ai-2040.com)
371 points | 481 commentspage 6
ReptileMan 8 hours ago|
One of the best comedies of the past decade got a sequel. That is all there is to say about that effort. The Europe 2031 also gets an honorable mention.
ipnon 2 days ago||
Kind of feels like fusion power at this point, always just around the corner.
reasonableklout 1 day ago||
What predictions about the technology are the authors making that you do not believe?

There is plenty falsifiable in this in ai-2027.com, and they have not gotten everything right. But some things they have: for example, the Pentagon has already invoked export controls to restrict the deployment of a frontier model. This level of government oversight wasn't predicted until 2027 in the original scenario.

hkalbasi 21 hours ago||
Self improvement of agent-1 is not achieved. Sure, people in AI labs write python code with AI, but I doubt it resulted in 50% algorithmic effiecency in training. Writing python code never was the bottleneck, if it was, AI labs could hire more people to do it. And this is core of the prediction.
icandoit 2 days ago||
LLM adoption is 30% in the charts I saw googling for "ai adoption". An example of capibility: I have had Claude one shot an RL agent that learns connect four in 30 minutes. That's PhD level stuff.

LLMS are 4 years old and the companies that sell them 10x every year. What evidence can you cite? Could you convince a disinterested 3rd party you have anything other than cope? What facts about the world make you think this is anything other than the new (and probably temporary) normal?

alecco 2 days ago||
More wild speculation, now with wishful thinking spread on top.
barrenko 13 hours ago||
Utopia, dystopia, myopia. We usually get the last one.
5701652400 3 hours ago||
so 2027 was supposed to be singulariy? lol
small_model 13 hours ago||
"Less than 6 months to our papers end date and it was way off, welp let create a new one much further, bit more leeway this time"
SilentM68 20 hours ago||
Firstly, let me say that "AI 2040: Plan A" is a nicely done presentation. If feels like reading an interactive graphic novel with a narrator to boot. Can't wait for the book, series or movie :)

Plan A seems like a good start and am glad an effort is actually being made to address any potential dangers. The only weak link I see is that there is no way for inaccessible, third-world countries, non-aligned states, and malicious wealthy rogue agents to be regulated. All I hear is a way for regulating companies that, themselves, legally have to answer or are bound to their host nations. Basically, I don't see a way to hold non-aligned states accountable.

I see a lot of focus on the well-being and protection of AI, which is important to country economies but, the folks that have been affected by layoffs, not necessarily due to AI, plus the workforce that are now feeling the negative consequences of the AI burn are justified in being worried. Anyone that feels the need to criticize them, clearly is not being affected by AI in the same way. Job loss will lead to economic and population destabilization, far worse than anything that has transpired in modern times. Hopefully, those being squeezed now won't be ignored.

eucryphia 18 hours ago||
“Engagement with China is impossible because it is a Stalinist one party state under a fiercely ideological Marxist Leninist dictatorship that preaches Chinese racial supremacy over other nations. It will always pose a threat to world peace until the regime eventually falls.” - Drew Pavlou
meindnoch 12 hours ago||
Is anyone taking these people seriously?
sndgndgndgndy 15 hours ago|
That's cool and all, but this work of fiction is economically and thermodynamically impossible with how much energy the current models consume.
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