Neither of these come to pass. The first because we don't live in a science fiction universe. The second because AI is a completely open source technology. You can literally make your own models and train them yourselves using state of the art techniques published in free papers. All you need is GPUs and smart people who can read (and now that AI can code, you don't need the second bit). These people are doomer quacks too caught up in fear and excitement to think rationally.

Their expectations and assumptions are all wrong, from the basic understanding of AI in general (like how you don't need a billion dollars or "American Brains" to make a half decent model), to the misunderstanding of market realities and competition in China and Europe. The US doesn't have a monopoly on chips, or on smart people; Huawei chips work fine for AI training and probably a fifth of the US tech sector's best workers aren't American to begin with. There's many forms of AI in many places; munition, economic driver, laborer, generic tool. It's now a part of the world, the way the Internet is. There's no keeping the genie in the bottle. AI doesn't take over the world; it's integrated with it. It's boring.

In a few years people will forget the doomer predictions, the way every doomer prediction that never came to pass is forgotten. We didn't nuke ourselves, the internet and television didn't rot our brains, the radio and telephone didn't corrupt the souls of Americans, the newspaper didn't incite anarchist riots. Every new technology freaks people out, and we adapt to every new technology and make it boring and normal. That's humanity.

My early analysis of the analysis:

https://lifearchitect.substack.com/p/the-memo-special-editio...

Look, I am scared of where we are heading, but I cannot see how we can change the dilemma towards mutual cooperation unless, as humans tend to do, only react massively after something really bad happens.