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Posted by zaikunzhang 7 hours ago

AI boosts research careers but narrow the span of ideas explored: study(spectrum.ieee.org)
107 points | 85 commentspage 2
curious_cat_163 5 hours ago|
We are headed towards the “trough of disillusion” of this particular cycle.
DrewADesign 4 hours ago|
Some always refuse to acknowledge that. Like if every hype cycle was a roadrunner bit: some people see the cliff and stop running, others take a few steps off the cliff, look down and pull out a sign that says “uh oh” and plummet, and some people haughtily call the people who pulled out their “uh oh” signs needlessly pessimistic as they careen towards the ground.
gammarator 3 hours ago||
At the present moment I think science is way more threatened by the OMB absconding with the grant budget than it is by AI.
bwfan123 6 hours ago||
> AI is largely automating the most tractable parts of science rather than expanding its frontiers

By definition, creativity cannot be automated, and AI is a fantastic automation machine. It can explore thinking paths at a rate humans cannot match. But creativity is bringing the unthinkable into the thinkable, and that requires sensory experience [1]. Specifically, new definitions and symbols which never existed before. Imagine the concept vector space, and expanding that with new independent dimensions. Is that even possible ? When you look at history the answer is yes !. And each time there was an independent dimension added, it was an act of genius. It is an instructive exercise to name these moments in history where an independent dimension was added to human thought. Some examples in math would be the invention of a number, and in politics could be the idea of democracy. By contrast, LLMs are trapped in the vector space they are trained on, and they lack the feedback loop with sensory experience to be able to create and validate theories.

[1] https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/28024/1/Scientific_Inventio...

psadri 5 hours ago||
I don’t think we have spent enough time on the creativity axis.

When we solve problems we usually follow a heuristically guided energy efficient path. We just prune a lot of possibilities based on our existing knowledge and experience.

Creativity happens when we consciously (or not) go off the beaten path and explore. Most of those explorations are dead ends. But some will yield unexpected connections, patterns etc that we call “creativity” .

An AI system could also go on those kinds of explorations. Today they aren’t it because we are not asking them to.

mym1990 4 hours ago||
Machine learning systems do have a component of exploring suboptimal path, otherwise they would never get off a singular track. The creativity issue in regards to AI is not about taking unexplored paths, but doing so in a computationally efficient manner when there are infinite combinations of ideas between domains.
ianm218 5 hours ago|||
> LLMs are permanently trapped in the vector space they are trained on.

A lot of the time people state the kind of fundamental limitations of LLMs very confidently when it feels like it is too early for people to really know. Like we are already well past the point where where LLMs are just pre trains on the internet with some RLHF for chatbot… Most of the effort is spent on elaborate reinforcement learning.

Is it unconceivable that future generations of LLMs could be RL’d to use einsteins visual method for theories [1] with the right tooling and geometry representations? Or just something random like that.

[1]. https://www.visualscribing.com/blog/2019-11-11-einstein-on-v...

skybrian 5 hours ago|||
That paper argues that an LLM “lacks the mechanism for Abduction,” which is not the same thing as a claim that “creativity cannot be automated.” They propose a different kind of AI:

> The emergence of physically consistent World Models offers a pathway to a synthetic laboratory. By enabling agents to run counterfactual simulations—to experience the physical consequences of a thought experiment—we may finally mechanize the feedback loop between intuition and logic.

vatsachak 4 hours ago||
Creativity can be automated. Humans are automated creativity invented by evolution
a-dub 4 hours ago||
sounds like it is just supercharging the business of science with all of its known failings?

it would be funny if by accelerating the enterprise it actually forced an effort to correct the trajectory.

cynicalsecurity 6 hours ago||
AI has been seriously around for how long? Two years? Isn't it a bit too early to say?
nathan_compton 5 hours ago||
Maybe its late enough to say maybe we don't need to be devoting half the worlds capital to building data centers.
seanmcau 5 hours ago||
Did you read the article?
abalashov 4 hours ago||
It's almost like it's inherent in the definition of LLMs.

It's really, _really_ high time we dispensed with the idea that this is "AI". Nobody said they're not useful, but "AI" they are not.

xmcp123 6 hours ago||
“Technology that is based on everything humanity has already done, fails to do things that humanity has not yet done”
BurningFrog 5 hours ago||
Wasn't Einstein's discoveries based on things humanity had already done?

AIs do things no human has done before millions of times a day.

nathan_compton 5 hours ago||
Einstein's discoveries were based (to a large degree) on negating very specific parts of scientific orthodoxy and then taking the steps forward to carefully derive results with those rejections in place.

LLMs are aggressively trained to reproduce facts and consequently struggle to reject orthodoxy. There isn't any reason they can't, in principal, make big new discoveries just by getting lucky, which is sort of also how humans do it, but its ok to acknowledge that current AIs aren't so good at certain things.

onraglanroad 2 hours ago||
I was under the impression that it was more accepting the othodoxy of Galilean/Newtonian relativety and joining it up with Maxwell's discovery about electromagnetism.

So if the speed of propogation of EM waves is the same no matter your frame of reference (along with all the rest of physics) then the speed of light can't be relative (a conclusion that was aided by the Michaelson-Morley experiment) and what are the logical consequences of that.

If I'm incorrect in my understanding I'd appreciate any correction.

esafak 6 hours ago|||
Are you following the news?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48863490

LLMs don't just 'average' their data.

Arainach 6 hours ago|||
That doesn't disagree with this article. Proving a theorem that a human already proposed in an existing discipline of math - math, the most formalized and easiest discipline to involve computers in even before LLMs - is very different from expanding the boundaries of science.
esafak 6 hours ago||
How is it different? Before there was no proof, and now there is. What counts as expanding the boundary to you?
Arainach 5 hours ago||
Identifying what questions to ask is often much harder than answering them. Proposing new theorems - and new areas of investigation - is what expands boundaries. Proving them is confirmation.

Once the Pythagorean theorem was proposed, many different proofs have been identified. In art, once a new style is created it's often straightforward for others to replicate. In physics, the idea of Relativity was what enabled the design of experiments to demonstrate its correctness. Proposing the idea is what's essential.

pton_xd 4 hours ago||||
They interpolate data in an XYZ dimensional space. The implications of that is beyond our comprehension.

I have a hard time believing that all novel concepts yet to be discovered are contained within that space, though.

esafak 2 hours ago||
You might as well say AI can only think of things humans can, so even if they invent new maths or science they can't go beyond the space of human thought.
runarberg 6 hours ago||
This may seem so blatantly obvious to us that it need not be mentioned, but to a lot of people I bet it is not obvious at al, and in fact may even be counter-obvious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM

hiddencost 5 hours ago||
The entire article seems to rest on their use of an embedding model for clustering garbage science.
jdw64 5 hours ago||
I agree with some parts, but not all.

I see it as an overfitting problem. Fundamentally, the topic here seems to be that citation indices and similar metrics are actually flawed indicators, and obsessing over them is just Goodhart's law in action. Ultimately, the argument is that the entire design of those metrics is wrong. To be precise, it was a good metric at first, but now that the scale has changed, it's become bad. This is common in programming too—things that are correct in the beginning but become problematic as they grow larger.

From an individual researcher's perspective, it's rational. You get more citations, your career accelerates. Everyone knows this. Paper counts aren't everything. Citation counts aren't everything. Journal impact factors aren't everything. You shouldn't only play it safe. But everything is tied to those metrics anyway.

Most researchers who give me work are fully aware of these facts. But are they going to change anything? Funding is still distributed based on those metrics.

Max Planck said, 'Science advances one funeral at a time.' Science doesn't progress purely through reasoned argument. The authority of the older generation, research funding networks, journals, and school-specific evaluation criteria all move together.

And honestly, I think discoveries will keep happening—probably quite rapidly. Because AI doesn't have the factional conflicts or interpersonal issues that humans do. It's very good at connecting papers across schools of thought without bias. In other words, the current human system is flawed at consolidating research, but I think AI is actually strong in this area. I expect AI-driven discoveries will continue for some time. The people who ride this wave will clearly be the winners.

Everyone knows things are broken, but no one is trying to fix them. I always think human society is inefficient. I read this post, but I'm more curious about who will actually lead the improvement effort.

nathan_compton 5 hours ago||
"Science advances one funeral at a time"

Well, these AI are never going to die in any real sense, so expect them to make orthodoxy more sticky, not less.

Marha01 5 hours ago|||
AIs get replaced with newer models.
nathan_compton 5 hours ago||
Which are still aggressively trained to reproduce the orthodoxy. They have to, to be viable products, since most people want to know what the orthodoxy is when they pose a question to an LLM and because not even experts can consistently agree on what elements of the fringe are genuinely useful to consider and which are bullshit, so that doesn't get into the training data. This will get even more pronounced in later models, for which the training data is much more curated.

I presume you are an expert in some field. Think carefully about the boundary of the field and all the subtlety and complexity of that boundary and all the oversimplification you do to communicate that stuff to lay people. AI is, in some large sense, directed at all lay people, not experts, and even if we wanted to direct it at experts, at the edges of knowledge, there really isn't a lot of training data for that. Mathematics is a sort of exception because it has very clear validation criteria which makes RF particularly easy for it.

jdw64 5 hours ago|||
I agree. AI will likely reinforce mainstream schools of thought through literature. I think I used the wrong example in this case—I should have framed it as the system itself rather than specific schools of thought. Thanks for the correction
jltsiren 5 hours ago|||
> Because AI doesn't have the factional conflicts or interpersonal issues that humans do.

All the factional conflicts are in there, and there are also plenty of reports of people getting weird / toxic / passive aggressive responses from AI.

Because the model is trained with everything, you can in principle get anything out of it. You want to get an answer based on all the right things, while keeping all the wrong things suppressed. But it's easy to get something less than ideal, due to the specifics of training, harnesses, context, prompts etc.

jdw64 5 hours ago||
I was too hasty in drawing my conclusion.I didn't think it through thoroughly enough.you're right
pocksuppet 4 hours ago||
> And honestly, ... [emdash]

AI-written comment?

jdw64 4 hours ago||
Sometimes I wish I were an AI, but sorry, I'm not. English is the lingua franca for properly accessing programming and science, but since I'm a non-native speaker, I end up relying on machine translation for some difficult words, or I just speak using only the limited vocabulary I know. It's really hard as a non-native speaker. Every time I do something, people call it AI.

Honestly, it feels a bit racist. If you just look at the content, it's clearly not a comment that AI could have written—but just because I used a few em-dashes and have limited vocabulary and formal phrasing, I get called AI and downvoted. It feels like they're saying non-native speakers should just go away. And the downvotes come without any counterargument to the actual content. Does this feel a bit more human now?

martinbfine 6 hours ago|
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