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Posted by therepanic 5 hours ago

I love LLMs, I hate hype(geohot.github.io)
234 points | 126 commentspage 2
sigmar 4 hours ago|
>One, this constant bullshit about some window closing, or the perpetual underclass, or falling hopelessly behind. This is negative valence hype, not only is it not true, it’s mostly designed to make you feel bad about yourself and move to shitty San Francisco where everything really does suck like how these people claim.

It's possible to use LLMs without logging onto twitter to be exposed to the people spouting off about a "perpetual underclass." I love the internet, but it really feels like (now more than ever) you have to be intentional about what sites you visit.

cautiouscat 4 hours ago||
Those people are not just on Twitter. They’re here on HN, they’re at work, they’re at your next social gathering.

I’ve found them to be unavoidable to some degree.

RajT88 1 hour ago||
I see a lot of them on Nextdoor and at my city council meetings.

Talking points like: "Data centers are just surveillance centers that are going to use AI to put us into a digital prison!"

Whatever all that means. I assume some of it is about Flock cameras.

ToValueFunfetti 4 hours ago|||
Agreed. There's sort of this spiteful anti-hype here that I find very offputting, and ultimately I think it's because a lot of folks are going out and encountering opinions I never see. I hear wild conspiracy theories about data centers and the financials of involved companies that make their way to me from bluesky or instagram, often through here, but never the unstoppable tide of hype that people are allegedly[1] railing against. I do read Scott Alexander, but he's a lot more reserved than people make him out to be on this.

[1] Allegedly because I have no firsthand experience, not to imply doubt.

paulryanrogers 4 hours ago||
Does Xitter still have people complaining about class divisions?

(Genuinely curious, I hadn't ever seen that there though I don't go there much any more.)

ToValueFunfetti 4 hours ago||
"Permanent underclass" is the notion that people who get involved at the ground floor will essentially get infinite wealth relative to the ones who don't. It's a little goofy, but more of the capitalism you'd expect from today's X than the communism you're imagining in yesterday's Twitter.
rho4 2 hours ago||
Thank you, I really needed to read a sane voice. The relentless hype-onslaught is not easy to cope with.
rafeuddaraj 2 hours ago||
This was a refreshing perspective. Thanks for writing it.
simianthoughts 3 hours ago||
This guy is sooooo annoying with his stale takes.

This is what he wrote before.

> I’m calling it now, the adoption of AI agents into software development will be one of the most costly mistakes in the field’s history. Agents cannot program, and it’s taking longer and longer to realize that they can’t.

Now he's writng

> I love the progress. I’m so excited for the new LLMs, self driving cars, video generation models, and coding agents.

SMH now he writes about the hype. My brother in absolute Deity, *you* should have believed the hype.

TN1ck 3 hours ago||
Both can be true and I have both opinions also in me. Love the progress, worry about the consequences of not being careful with it.

He does say in this post:

> I’m getting better at using them and get some boost from the models. It is a new skill, and it’s not like I haven’t constantly been trying them. You have to be really careful, they can increase cognitive fatigue, and all the vibe coded stuff is still slop (where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply?).

emp17344 2 hours ago||
You act as a hype peddler in practically every LLM-adjacent thread. No wonder you’re taking this article so personally. Touch grass.
yunnpp 2 hours ago||
misunderestimate? So overestimate, or estimate exactly?
neiman 4 hours ago||
Honestly, who likes any hype in anything ever? Especially if you genuinely like and understand the thing being hyped.
tuvix 3 hours ago||
Agreed, but I do think this is a wholly different kind of hype. With crypto currencies it was the promise of modernizing value exchange, with some zealots promising the end of traditional currency.

With this, I’m hearing (from supposedly reputable publications, in addition to random people) that this is going to end knowledge work in general and take out a large percentage of the world’s labor force. I’m being told to pick up a trade, and that the career I have and the knowledge I’ve gained is now worthless.

The worst part seems to be that it’s pretty much impossible to quantify any kind of impact these tools will have until after the impact is actually felt. We’ve been in limbo while the tech sector is just rotting.

cautiouscat 4 hours ago|||
C-suites. Marketers. People with stock portfolios. Banks. Politicians.

So all people that don’t understand the thing being hyped.

an0malous 3 hours ago||
Basically all people with monetary investment in the thing being hyped
moffkalast 4 hours ago||
Stocks and politics I guess.
ChicagoDave 2 hours ago||
A lot of people died from Covid and if not for mRNA technology and extraordinary caregivers a lot more deaths would have occurred. That’s hype where it truly belongs. Don’t mix AI hype with Covid conspiracy theories.
a-dub 3 hours ago||
it's kinda like riding an e-bike, but in heavy and unpredictable pedestrian traffic.
pu_pe 3 hours ago||
> A certain cult likes to claim credit for things that are happening with or without them, and this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it.

> AI is something that’s happening mostly due to Moore’s law and general progress in computing, not something that they are doing.

But if these companies control the vast majority of compute power, which seems like the plan they are already executing, won't they capture most of the value from the progress of AI?

deep_concern 3 hours ago|
>One, this constant bullshit about some window closing, or the perpetual underclass, or falling hopelessly behind. This is negative valence hype, not only is it not true, it’s mostly designed to make you feel bad about yourself and move to shitty San Francisco where everything really does suck like how these people claim.

It's bullshit in the sense that they don't know for sure, but the author doesn't either. Why might or might not it be true?

rglover 1 hour ago||
May be true because humans, especially in the West, are big on performative humanitarianism but not actually considering the well-being of others (or changing their behavior solely for the benefit of others).

May not be true because it's a blind spot to assume that purely by being a player in the AI game (with no real attention paid to quality of result), you have increased odds of winning the game. That's true in the abstract, but practically, it requires a competent player to become true in reality.

fragmede 16 minutes ago||
No one knows for sure. I certainly don't. Looking at history though, at what happened in 2008, and the effects it had on my own personal financial situation, it's easy to see "falling behind" as plausible.
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