Top
Best
New

Posted by rbanffy 7 days ago

Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth(ciphertalk.substack.com)
123 points | 104 commentspage 3
BenFranklin100 4 hours ago|
Would it make economic sense to strip it down and sell for parts? That’s how it’s done now for older data centers, where the obsolete equipment is sent off to China, stripped down for parts, and sold on the secondary market. I’ve picked up several older but still useful RAID hardware cards off eBay this way.

I’m mainly interested in getting some DDR4/5 and RTX5090s on the cheap :).

aslkalska 4 hours ago||
so you're telling me you can't use 1 or 2% percent of 5 billions dollars to rebuild a team that runs GPU clusters for like a couple of years ?! and the guy that borrowed billions from these banks would want to mess up that relationship for what? I mean he is a stupid narcissist but not to that degree. This whole article makes no sense to me.
Joel_Mckay 3 hours ago||
Given the price for a rack of bc-250 after the crypto hype cycle, the expected value of the hardware will be around 5% to 10% of the original retail price.

Without other market influences, that is a >90% expected discount when the over-provisioned market must inevitably self-correct.

If the Market follows what Samsung/SK Hynix did to the South Korean exchange this week, than the "AI" bubble will hit harder than the dot com crash.

I like the Shrek Movie correlation theory, as they always happen just before Debt-backed investors get hit hard... And the new film is due out in 2027. =3

owebmaster 1 hour ago|
> If the Market follows what Samsung/SK Hynix did to the South Korean exchange this week, than the "AI" bubble will hit harder than the dot com crash

Can you tell us more about this? Or some link

DiabloD3 3 hours ago||
GPU clusters have, largely, no actual value.

If anything, you might have to pay to have them disposed of, they don't really have any meaningful used eBay market outside of the randos that want to do high end extreme local inference in their basement.

Also, as for RAMmageddon, the inference SBCs that all of the AI bros bought don't have DIMMs, they're not even the right chip: its all GDDR and LPDDR. The only DDR DIMMs being consumed are for regular non-inference machines that help run the business and service infrastructure behind the scenes.

busymom0 3 hours ago||
> Silent data corruption (SDC) is the most expensive, where a faulty GPU produces wrong answers without crashing anything, which means a multi-day training run can complete normally and the resulting model weights are quietly poisoned.

Anyone know how these get caught ultimately?

wmf 2 hours ago|
Usually silent data corruption isn't caught. If a file fails to open you might realize it's been corrupted.
timmmmmmay 3 hours ago||
[flagged]
mlyle 3 hours ago|
That still doesn't tell you what GPUs will be worth in 5 years, because it depends upon what inference demand is like and what the alternatives are. What will an hour of NVL72 be worth in 2029?

(And other things, that we know partially but not fully-- like what failure rate for current generation parts will be under this loading).

So we have big uncertainties about the revenue, moderate uncertainty about the proportion of the asset that will survive, and some uncertainty about what operating costs will be. It's difficult to turn this into a residual value.

Finally, the whole "operating the big facility" thing is not likely to be plug-and-play for a new technical team following a default. How much outage/disruption ensues?

munchler 3 hours ago||
Nobody knows what anything is going to be worth in 5 years.
mlyle 2 hours ago|||
Strictly true, but finance being able to predict this pretty closely is how the entire modern economy works.
throwaway85825 3 hours ago|||
If that was true the insurance and loan industries wouldn't exist.
cgyvbunji 4 hours ago|
If nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth it means nobody is doing anything important with GPUs - time to short everything. Do you believe it?