Posted by rbanffy 7 days ago
I’m mainly interested in getting some DDR4/5 and RTX5090s on the cheap :).
Without other market influences, that is a >90% expected discount when the over-provisioned market must inevitably self-correct.
If the Market follows what Samsung/SK Hynix did to the South Korean exchange this week, than the "AI" bubble will hit harder than the dot com crash.
I like the Shrek Movie correlation theory, as they always happen just before Debt-backed investors get hit hard... And the new film is due out in 2027. =3
Can you tell us more about this? Or some link
If anything, you might have to pay to have them disposed of, they don't really have any meaningful used eBay market outside of the randos that want to do high end extreme local inference in their basement.
Also, as for RAMmageddon, the inference SBCs that all of the AI bros bought don't have DIMMs, they're not even the right chip: its all GDDR and LPDDR. The only DDR DIMMs being consumed are for regular non-inference machines that help run the business and service infrastructure behind the scenes.
Anyone know how these get caught ultimately?
(And other things, that we know partially but not fully-- like what failure rate for current generation parts will be under this loading).
So we have big uncertainties about the revenue, moderate uncertainty about the proportion of the asset that will survive, and some uncertainty about what operating costs will be. It's difficult to turn this into a residual value.
Finally, the whole "operating the big facility" thing is not likely to be plug-and-play for a new technical team following a default. How much outage/disruption ensues?