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Posted by nickthegreek 3 hours ago

What happened to TheNumbers.com(stephenfollows.com)
179 points | 64 comments
primitivesuave 1 hour ago|
A couple years ago, I was running a website which allowed the public to view all the US government handouts to small businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also tracked all the fraudulent loans being prosecuted by the DOJ, and allowed anyone to run structured queries over the public dataset. There was a "donate" button which took in ~$2k in donations over the lifetime of the site, and you could download the entire underlying dataset (around 10 GB uncompressed) for free directly on the site.

Despite the "download all data" link being prominently placed on the front page, the AI scrapers decided it would be more efficient to download terabytes upon terabytes of raw HTML by paginating through every possible facet on the search endpoint. Even with CloudFront caching results and a fairly efficient backend setup, the monthly bill ended up with around $1k just going toward network ingress/egress, so I shut down the site the following month.

deepsun 58 minutes ago||
BigQuery has "public datasets", so users can even run complex SQL on it, but it's them who pays for it, not you. You only pay for data storage.
dpoloncsak 32 minutes ago||
The crawlers would have still just hammered their site though, right?
pavel_lishin 13 minutes ago||
I think the idea is that they could store the data in BigQuery, and point users of the site there.
PunchyHamster 5 minutes ago||
The crawlers would have still just hammered their site though, right?
BeeOnRope 57 minutes ago|||
Do you have any view on why the AI scrapers resulted in a heavier load than existing crawlers from eg search engines?

Where they more exhaustive or more frequent?

pverheggen 10 minutes ago|||
There's been an explosion of vibe-coded scrapers that behave poorly and ignore robots.txt. Presumably OP disallowed crawling of the search endpoint for the reason stated (that crawling it would result in endless permutations of search filters.)
ratelimitsteve 52 minutes ago|||
not the OP but I'd say that google crawls you once and AIs scrape your page every time someone asks them a question that they think your page might be relevant to.
tailscaler2026 1 hour ago||
Building on AWS is a financial time bomb.
ethagnawl 2 hours ago||
At the risk of oversimplifying things from a distance, this site -- especially the free, public-facing part of it -- seems like it would be an ideal candidate for a rewrite using static site generator/framework. That, coupled with a bot-aware CDN should keep them online at a reasonable cost for many years to come.

Otherwise, I'm very curious to know more about their old and new architecture and what sorts of mitigation/scaling strategies they've started using to keep the site online.

zackmorris 1 hour ago||
Ya this problem was solved 20 years ago with Varnish cache and Coral cache/CDN.

I think what's really going on is that bots expose how underpowered web servers has gotten in recent years. In the 2000s, even poorly-architected PHP sites tended to serve about 200 requests per second, with 1000+ being common for static sites. I remember when Node.js came out and claimed that it could serve more like 100,000 RPS due to its cooperative threading model. But today sites have a remarkable slowness to them, running many hundreds or thousands of database queries due to ORMs and N+1 problems, so that response times can be 500 ms or more and even 1000 simultaneous users stresses servers.

What went wrong is that nobody solved stuff like Russian doll caching in a general way separate from the programming language and database. We should have had ways to make dependency graphs using Etag headers as keys with real cache invalidation of dependent data. I went down that rabbit hole 10 years ago using touch events in Laravel with callbacks to handle cache invalidation when class model data was saved to the database. Also a query cache using Redis which I think might have been handled better at the database level anyway. After that experience, I can honestly say that cache invalidation is so difficult to get right that it's effectively an open problem. Meaning that programmings should use a package instead of rolling it by hand, and it should be a major concern from the start (along with sharding by user id or using something like Firebase).

Don't get me started on how the web should have been a P2P content-addressable memory anyway. Nearly everything should be available from a nearby edge peer, similarly to BitTorrent. But nobody bothered to solve how to make that work with HTTPS/SSL. I suspect that has to do with early flaws in the browser security model where the whole page has to be behind HTTPS or warnings appear. So it was never clear what was personally identifiable information (PII) or merely public data being served over HTTPS. To really solve that, we probably need real trust networks and maybe even zero-knowledge proofs.

Since these problems are so challenging to fix, and big companies can't be bothered to do it since they pulled the ladder up behind them, we're probably stuck with banal "are you human" challenge screens for the foreseeable future.

PunchyHamster 1 minute ago|||
> Ya this problem was solved 20 years ago with Varnish cache and Coral cache/CDN.

It was... if you are paying datacenter rates for the bandwidth

If you're paying cloud provider per GB pricing, nah, even text will add up if you happen to be targeted by a bunch of bots

> What went wrong is that nobody solved stuff like Russian doll caching in a general way separate from the programming language and database. We should have had ways to make dependency graphs using Etag headers as keys with real cache invalidation of dependent data.

we did that with nested ESI includes in Varnish so every "box" of content on the page was cached separately + some piping for invalidation, so if a given piece in the database was changed it sent invalidation to all nodes. There was also some grace so if the thing you wanted got updated RIGHT NOW you might get stale version while the new one is updated in background, and don't pay the latency cost

withinboredom 48 minutes ago|||
They are indeed quite challenging. We literally wrote a paper about it (https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09114) ... you almost describe some of our original architecture too! You might find it interesting -- or not. https://getswytch.com
tengada1 2 hours ago|||
Yeah this seems like one of the easiest access models to create an excellent security model for -- basically just static publishing. Sounds like they were in need of a rewrite anyway!

It probably seems daunting but to be honest this feels like a weekend's work at this point with LLM assistance. Not to be glib!

jaredwiener 1 hour ago||
But it also destroys the business model behind the site.

Sure, you could technically redesign to handle the bot traffic, but if the bot traffic is just taking the data and reducing any need for humans to visit the site, why is he putting in the effort to maintain the site?

tptacek 36 minutes ago|||
The business model of the site is apparently private data sales, not ad revenue.
hyperhello 1 hour ago|||
Well, why is he? If it's for ad revenue, this problem is surely global to the web. If it's because he likes to do it, it shouldn't matter if one AI or a trillion scrape the site. I feel like we badly need a rethink of the web architecture after DoubleClick anyway. Maybe the name of the game should be to cut down a site's assets very hard and use static hosting for them. This interferes with crummy sites that show a mess of inlined ads every refresh, but now that there are a billion 'poor users' this is no longer feasible.
jaredwiener 1 hour ago||
Maybe more an inherent problem with these chatbots.

LLMs are great, but they aren't producing new information. You still need people for that. But if you cut down any incentive for the people to do that, the LLMs will starve.

RobotToaster 1 hour ago||
Or just use a cache.
abetusk 2 hours ago||
I think people are missing one of the points of the article. It's not just that agents are hammering the site, it's that there might be lurking vulnerabilities that allow malicious usage, which is why it went down, then came back up with a fraction of the data and a reduced design.

The article says (speculates?) that malicious users are trying to get privileged access for an edge in prediction market betting. From the article:

> If you could see The Numbers data before everyone else, every single week, you would have a significant edge over all the other traders - learning the answers slightly ahead of publication would allow you to front-run the trades.

podgietaru 1 hour ago||
"One Reddit theory even suggested it was a deliberate rug pull designed to cripple the free site to push people towards paid products."

I know this isn't really the point of the article, but I've been thinking about this a lot. I wonder if we're going to see more resources go this way.

I used to publish little doo-dads as opensource software. Not because it was something that was legitimately ground breaking or anything (it absolutely wasn't) but because I had a problem, and I thought "heh wouldn't it be cool if someone else had a similar problem and could use my resource for it."

But now I'm really reluctant to give more stuff to the free web. Because the fact that it gets scraped and added to a pile of training data to later be monetized really rubs me the wrong way.

And I can see why maintainers of sites like this, or other free but incredibly useful resources might start to get irate at that.

II2II 1 hour ago||
> But now I'm really reluctant to give more stuff to the free web. Because the fact that it gets scraped and added to a pile of training data to later be monetized really rubs me the wrong way.

The thing is, people were scraping and monetizing other people's websites long before the current LLM fad. The difference is the magnitude of the problem.

> And I can see why maintainers of sites like this, or other free but incredibly useful resources might start to get irate at that.

Those who object to the scraping fall into several camps, but the biggest complaint I am hearing is that it increases both maintenance costs and time. In other words: it sucks when people are using your work in a manner that you find offensive, but it goes beyond that by doing actual harm.

joshmarinacci 59 minutes ago|||
A change in quantity can become a change in quality.
antisthenes 20 minutes ago|||
> The thing is, people were scraping and monetizing other people's websites long before the current LLM fad. The difference is the magnitude of the problem.

People doing it with a couple of machines and residential proxies versus Anthropic doing it with 2 data centers worth of machines.

Scale matters.

weitendorf 1 hour ago|||
I open source as much software as I can because I want the models to train on it and get better at it!
Scoundreller 52 minutes ago||
I feel the same about my old blog articles.

I used to rank pretty well trashing crappy credit cards and encouraging people to switch to better options, then Google decided that 10 results for the card issuers website was better.

Same shit when I manually wrote proto-gethuman posts on calling telecoms/banks/etc (and also pushed visitors to try an Indy ISP or credit unions), then Google felt it was better to drive users to the telecom’s website that wants you to do anything but call them.

Please do train on my pre-LLM gold!

vachina 51 minutes ago|||
> But now I'm really reluctant to give more stuff to the free web.

I feel the same way too. But guess what, all the code you did not publish gets into the training corpus anyway (when you gave Codex or whatever full read access to your filesystem).

CamperBob2 1 hour ago||
This attitude makes zero sense to me. You benefit from the "training data" just like everyone else does. If you don't, that's a problem with you, not a problem with AI models.

AI solves exactly the meta-problem you describe: "I had a problem and needed to write a one-off doo-dad utility program to solve it." Now you can do something with your time besides writing pointless one-off doo-dads.

As for monetizing the training data, (a) it cost hundreds of millions of dollars to generate the weights, so why begrudge the companies that made the investment and did the research necessary to make it happen?; and (b) rest assured, whatever your doo-dad does, an open-weight model like GLM 5.2 can generate it for free using your own hardware.

So you don't have to pay anyone in that case. Well, except nVidia, I guess. Point granted there.

podgietaru 1 hour ago|||
I don't know how else to explain it. It doesn't feel the same to have my contributions smushed into a linear-algebra machine? For me, the incentive was the idea that my contributions might have directly helped someone. That absolutely does not feel the same when I think "My answer has modified the back propagation of a Machine Learning training run."

It doesn't have to make sense to you - I just believe that I'm not exactly alone in this thought.

Now apply this to Art, free stories, writing etc. It feels bad to have your free contributions hoovered up and monetized. It doesn't feel particularly fair or ethical to me. And it'd make me double think before making something free and publicly available.

CamperBob2 55 minutes ago||
Understood, there's certainly nothing invalid about your point of view here. It's just not one that I personally can come to terms with.

I've spent a lot of time in your shoes, wasting time on busy-work needed to accomplish a larger goal (and absolutely sharing the results freely, over multiple decades)... and I don't miss that part of it one bit.

jtuple 45 minutes ago||||
> Now you can do something with your time besides writing pointless one-off doo-dads

Writing software one-offs to scratch an itch was historically one of my most enjoyable past-times. AI trivializing that has been a very real theft of joy in my life.

Solving the actual problem was never the point, it was just motivation to do geek-out and craft some code.

AI is rapidly diminishing many interesting hobbies (coding, art, music, writing).

Having more free time when there's nothing fun nor exciting to do with it isn't really a benefit.

dminik 52 minutes ago||||
This is such a sad worldview. Life without any challenges. Every problem immediately solved without learning anything.
mtVessel 1 hour ago||||
| Now you can do something with your time besides writing pointless one-off doo-dads.

...thus eliminating all the tedious chatting, relaxing and making friends that people were previously forced to do while waiting for elevators.

CamperBob2 1 hour ago||
...thus eliminating all the tedious chatting, relaxing and making friends that people were previously forced to do while waiting for elevators

That also makes no sense, but I don't know what else I should have expected.

qotgalaxy 1 hour ago|||
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gajus 2 hours ago||
What a throwback. Back in 2015 I have started Applaudience, which at the time was the only provider of real-time cinema ticket sales data. I still remember comparing our numbers against TheNumbers.com as part of calibration. I have since moved on to other businesses, but this remains one of my favorite pieces of technology that I have developed. Would love to bring it back one day.
vachina 58 minutes ago||
> The world we have built thus far is so incredibly ill-prepared for the power and scale of the AI models we all have access to.

Exactly, so use the AI to secure your servers. Ask the AI to audit your site for any security holes. If unable to rewrite, at least harden the existing code. AI’s are really really cheap (and fast) security consultants now.

paxys 1 hour ago||
I know people have opinions about Cloudflare but why not use it here, at least as a stop gap? Stopping bot traffic is one thing it does very well.
NetMageSCW 1 hour ago|
Cost?
esseph 50 minutes ago||
It's free for this
datadrivenangel 1 hour ago||
If the AI companies destroy the open web, eventually they'll need to start curating knowledge sources just like netflix makes movies and amazon has physical stores...
nradov 1 hour ago|
Already happening. Frontier LLM vendors have been hiring human domain experts specifically to create their own proprietary training data in targeted verticals.
advisedwang 1 hour ago||
This article, and possibly the owners of the site, seem to muddle together several problems:

1. bot traffic causing infrastructure cost

2. scraping circumventing paying for licenses

3. the risk of hacking

VulgarExigency 35 minutes ago|
They should sue Anthropic for this distillation attack
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