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Posted by tknaup 7 hours ago

Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment(tobi.knaup.me)
224 points | 162 commentspage 2
chasd00 3 hours ago|
FTFA: American labs need to release frontier-grade open-weight models under licenses that startups can actually build on.

oh now i see, the Chinese government is funding the training and release of their best models to pressure OpenAI, Anthropic, and others to do the same for competition's sake. I don't buy it, this seems more like a way to get SOTA models RL'd to comply with Chinese government approved information distribution. If I have to trust a black box of answers to questions i would trust one from a US for-profit publicly traded company subject to market forces over one approved, and heavily subsidized, by the Chinese government.

georgeburdell 1 hour ago||
No, it’s consistent with what China is doing in other markets, which is dumping product to drive others out of business.

I had a shower thought on how to counteract this, specifically related to the AI dumping. If China is losing substantial money on every token, why wouldn’t an adversary try to maliciously increase consumption? This strategy is not really viable against physical goods dumping because demand is finite and there are large environmental costs. Software demand is infinite and the environmental costs are quite low compared to the financial cost to make it, even with ultra cheap Chinese tokens

aliasxneo 3 hours ago||
What tools do we have to countermeasure the state sponsored bias in the Chinese models? Doesn’t seem like a smart plan if individuals can just compensate for the bias.
hedora 1 hour ago|||
Also, the choice right now is between an open weight Chinese model that is hypothetically censored to block / sabotage routine engineering flows vs a closed weight service that is definitely censored to block / sabotage those things.

First anthropic guardrails blocked totally normal stuff on fable and knocked you down to opus. At this point, they kick you off fable, then opus, then sonnet. Claude then automatically builds up memories of techniques to bypass the guardrails in my long running sessions (the coordinator agent notices the subordinates got shot in the head and their sessions were pulled from context, so it parses out the lost context from ~/.claude json files, then reformulates parts of the task and uses partial results until the guardrail doesn’t trip.

If I were paying for the API, this dance would cost $50-100 a pop, but I’m not, so whatever (for now).

johnvanommen 1 hour ago|||
I worry that AI will be so fundamental to how we do things in the future, companies can mold human behavior via access to the AI tools.

For instance, I worked at FICO. When I mention this, people wonder what they do. The average person only knows FICO as a “score.”

FICO was founded in Silicon Valley.

The average person doesn’t think about how credit scores work, fundamentally.

It’s just software, at its core. FICO incentivizes certain behaviors.

Ever been banned from an online forum?

Now imagine if a corporation could shut you off from a technology that’s literally indispensable.

Same idea.

maayank 2 hours ago||
https://web.archive.org/web/20260725184440/https://tobi.knau...
netdur 4 hours ago||
why would any software want to have Kubernetes moment? can't count how devop I know that is confused by it
xyzsparetimexyz 4 hours ago||
I still don't know what it is tbh. Something for docker?
yard2010 3 hours ago|||
I was in the same boat as you until I needed to learn how to use it in my $dayjob. It was like discovering a new continent. I couldn't care less about it before, but the moment I realized it's a kind of cloud OS I was astounded by how this thing is genius. It's the kind of thing that gives you dopamine rushes when you use it. Something about how there is a solution to every problem you didn't know even mattered turns it into a magical perfect software. I just love it.

There is something special about complex systems that just-work(tm)

jdub 3 hours ago|||
This is the initial endorphin rush you get when wielding a complex system. The feeling changes when the complexity explodes in your face.
mystifyingpoi 2 hours ago||
Well said. The rush is when one understands the loosely coupled control loops and how they work together... until something fails in the middle with no error.
johnvanommen 1 hour ago||||
> the moment I realized it's a kind of cloud OS

The foundation of this is thirty years old:

Mark Andreesen founded a company to do what Amazon did: Loudcloud. This was cloud computing, BEFORE AWS was public. Loudcloud was founded in the nineties; AWS opened its APIs in 2006.

Loudcloud failed and became Opsware. Opsware was server automation.

Its competitor was Bladelogic.

Luke Kanies, from BladeLogic, founded Puppet. Puppet was open source, and steamrollered over nearly every installation of BladeLogic and Opsware in existence, because you can’t beat free.

Folks from BladeLogic migrated to jobs at DCOS.

DCOS was steamrollered by Kubernetes, the same way Puppet steamrollered BladeLogic.

The author of the piece predicts that open weight models will steamroller everything next.

I fear he’s right.

I worked for Opsware and BladeLogic.

I watched it happen in real time.

Financially, Andreesen’s wealth stems from Opsware. He is known for Mosaic, but Opsware put him on the map, financially. HP bought them.

If one wants to follow in Andreesen’s footsteps, study how he did it at Opsware.

Conveniently, there is a book.

“The Hard Thing about Hard Things.”

m4rtink 3 hours ago|||
So Kubernetes is LSD? ;)
chias 4 hours ago||||
I was in this state a few weeks ago. I spent a bit of time familiarizing myself then wrote up my learnings as a series of exercises.

If you think of docker as "kinda like vms except not really" and k8s as "kinda like deploying and composing docker containers but not really", this may be for you:

https://ojensen.net/infra/understanding-k8s-1

It's actually really neat, i wish i had bothered to learn it years ago.

munchler 3 hours ago||
I appreciate the effort and I'm in your target audience, but that document didn't help me. It seems to dive into the details of installing and running k8s without saying much about the purpose.

From my very ignorant standpoint, K8s seems to be about running a "cluster", but I don't know why I would want to do that.

what-is-water 2 hours ago||
Kubernetes orchestrates your container workloads over a cluster, which consists of virtual/bare metal machines(nodes). This means you can tell the kubernetes API "I want to run a container workload" and it will be started on one of the nodes that form the cluster, unlike e.g. Docker, where a docker daemon belongs to a specific node. If you remove the node your workload is running on from the cluster the workload will be rescheduled on a different one, or if you have a new image version it will start the new container, wait for it to become healthy and ready, and then route requests to it. And if you want to send requests to your workload kubernetes allows you to define standardized abstractions to easily route them to your workload, irrespective of the node it is running on.

It allows you to stop caring about the individual machines, and just treat them as combined compute, which starts mattering if you leave a single machine setup and need to start thinking about scaling in and out and gluing the individual parts together. Then you have known abstractions to do it.

Of course you can do everything kubernetes does using a bespoke solution, and the concepts aren't new, but having a widely supported technology has a lot of advantages and creating something with even half the feature has a high chance of just being worse.

munchler 1 hour ago||
Thank you for this explanation. It makes sense, but I don't really understand why it has become so popular.

Professionally, my experience is that certain software components need to run together on an individual machine (e.g. database server, app server, web server), and then those machines need to be networked in a certain way (e.g. web server talks to app server, which talks to database server), so I really need to care about the architecture of individual machines. You can then scale this out horizontally (e.g. add another web server) or vertically (e.g. upgrade your database server).

I'm old, so maybe I'm out of date, but having a cluster of "compute" that I can run arbitrary workloads on sounds neat, but is a capability that I've never needed.

genghisjahn 4 hours ago||||
If you can get it implemented for anything you can’t be fired.
Pxtl 4 hours ago||||
It's for running a massive number of docker containers and automatically managing them and scaling them up and down on demand. It is also so famously brutally complex that basically you need a dedicated Kube expert to handle it.
honkycat 4 hours ago||
to be fair, at any large scale you need infra people.
RussianCow 3 hours ago||
The problem is that companies tend to exaggerate their own scale and think they need k8s and dedicated infra people when they could get by with a handful of beefy VMs or dedicated servers.
honkycat 50 minutes ago||
Or you could use hosted k8s and be future proof.

I would take a kube cluster over a bunch of VMs I have to hand wire: wire releasing to, managing processes, restarting crashed processes, log aggregation, load balancing, networking, secret injection, cert management, DNS management, monitoring, etc... Any day of the week.

You just don't know what you're talking about, sorry. Kube is really easy now.

marcosdumay 3 hours ago||||
Kubernetes is for docker what your init system is for daemons.
spicyusername 4 hours ago|||
You... don't know what Kubernetes is... pretty impressive, honestly.

Its 2026 and its the de facto method of deploying software basically everywhere.

You gotta really work for it to not know what its for by now.

recursive 4 hours ago|||
I don't do much deployment but I'm in the same boat. Something something docker automation?
chrisandchris 4 hours ago||||
> Its 2026 and its the de facto method of deploying software basically everywhere.

That is some really impressive bubble you are living within. Basically everywhere - nowhere near that, no.

[edit]: Maybe containers, but software in general is so much more broad than containers.

thewebguyd 4 hours ago||||
Everywhere, huh? Still plenty just running on VMs or serverless that don't need full blown container orchestration.

I'll agree that (nearly) everyone should know when Kubernetes is useful, but let's not pretend its the default method for everything. Even then, choosing to deploy on K8s falls on the sysadmins/DevOps I wouldn't expect the devs know or do much more than provide the Dockerfile.

YetAnotherNick 4 hours ago|||
2026 is the year for vercel and Render.
RussianCow 3 hours ago||
I haven't used them but aren't they basically modernized Heroku? What's different?
throw-the-towel 3 hours ago||
Heroku is dying, these are not.
honkycat 4 hours ago||
Recently my company bought another company, and we kept zero of the original engineers, we just had to run the ghost ship.

We walked in, and it was fine. Because it was all kubernetes and laid out like every other app for the most part.

The kube hate is just sad at this point. You need to know like 15 concepts that are all applied in the same way. It mostly just works.

singingtoday 3 hours ago|||
I ported my company over to k8s to solve a concurrency and scaling issues.

What 15 concepts? You're making me worry that I missed something. It was straight forward: pods, nodes, hw type, lifecycle, deployment. They run almost the same docker as the old ec2s used.

What did I miss? Is there something important I need to read?

honkycat 55 minutes ago||
Lol no you got em

I would say:

- deployments - pods -services - ingress - namespaces - cert-manager - external DNS - external secrets - configmaps - hpa - docker - volumes/pvc

That's the basics

Syntaf 4 hours ago||||
It’s the pineapple on pizza of ops, people just like to fit in sometimes.

I’ve been running my own personal k8s cluster on digital ocean for the last 5+ years now and it’s dead simple.

Takes me 30 minutes to create a new namespace a deploy an app, love the bonus of having complete flexibility on my stack too — PVC + SQLite ftw

itomato 4 hours ago|||
Ghost ship status is not something most orgs aspire to.

The value built on that stability was probably worth acquiring, and it’s infra will decay.

SilverElfin 1 hour ago||
What’s interesting is no one is talking about political censorship in models and how DeepSeek, Kimi, and the rest have to abide by CCP rules. It’s a big opportunity for China to control information.
Danox 25 minutes ago|
And that censorship will fail too, like sanctions, tariffs, and keeping down open source software or exchanging ideas across borders, ultimately it will fail, but that won’t stop governments across the world from trying.
Sammi 2 hours ago||
Kubernetes is a system/infrastructure orchestration tool. I completely fail to see how it is comparable to open weight neural nets. In either application or function.

I'm sorry to do that hn comment thing where we all just race to contradict or talk in opposition of whatever was said before. I'm aware. But really guys, was this article really not just a miss?

Kbelicius 2 hours ago|
It is natural to not see something that isn't there. The article isn' comapraing the two in application or functio
PersonalJarvis 4 hours ago||
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/top...
YetAnotherNick 4 hours ago||
In fact more countries should have government funded models. There are some obvious issues in China completely dominating open weights space. Kimi had funding of just $2B and could literally create national security threat. A lot of countries could fund something in the range of few billion for something so important. At the very least US and EU could fund few companies.
cr125rider 5 hours ago|
Way over complicated for what most users need? Huh?
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