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Posted by ndsipa_pomu 4 hours ago

The Strongest El Niño Ever(www.theclimatebrink.com)
177 points | 134 commentspage 2
NooneAtAll3 4 hours ago|
I for one am impressed we get couple months of warning before it happens
echelon 4 hours ago|
It's a massive oscillating system (millions of square miles), so we have plenty of lead time. It's easy to measure and watch evolve.
croes 3 hours ago||
Another thing AI makes worse because of all the energy consumption.

I hope we have something more to show than dozens of to-do apps when our children and grandchildren ask which important things made the massive use of AI necessary.

simianwords 2 hours ago|
Even if we don't do anything about emissions and climate change picks up, lives in 2126 will be unmistakably better than ours in all dimensions that matter.
TheOtherHobbes 2 hours ago|||
If you're a single-celled creature living near the Arctic.
simianwords 2 hours ago||
[flagged]
polotics 1 hour ago||||
can you show us the world model that predicts this outcome? which variables does it take into account?
simianwords 1 hour ago||
This is more or less what most academics and serious policy makers believe.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...

bamboozled 2 hours ago||||
I really believe this is corporate propaganda. "Don't worry, we have the solutions".

You don't.

simianwords 2 hours ago||
[flagged]
jddj 1 hour ago|||
> Venus is similar in structure and size to Earth, and is sometimes called Earth's evil twin. Its thick atmosphere traps heat in a runaway greenhouse effect, making it the hottest planet in our solar system with surface temperatures hot enough to melt lead — about 872 degrees Fahrenheit (467 Celsius).
polotics 1 hour ago||||
oh you looked up 2126 on the Google did you? can you explain this verification process a bit more maybe? is it based on world3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3
simianwords 1 hour ago||
these people (the model) predicted that Food per person peaks around 2015 hahaha. not only that, they predicted population would peak at 7 billion at around 2030.

there's a sort of person who would look at these false predictions and willingly not update, but instead move the goal post.

here's the reality: there's small subset of unfortunate people who still cling on to this model despite being demolished by reality. they are not the consensus fortunately - each field has some strange people believing some wild ideas. what's interesting is what the public chooses to side with.

netsharc 1 hour ago||||
There's people butchered in Sudan because a lake dried up. The Arab Spring was triggered because 2010 forest fires in Russia made them restrict their grain exports, causing food prices - this has lead to the European refugee crisis. And the planet isn't getting healthier, the thought that things will improve is... delusional.
queenkjuul 1 hour ago|||
Claude is a fortune teller now?
queenkjuul 1 hour ago|||
This is propaganda
1over137 3 hours ago||
Maybe Trump can tariff it? That should solve the problem.
phtrivier 2 hours ago||
Come on, Trump would never "tarrif" something called "El Nino".

He would first deport it a couple times.

bamboozled 2 hours ago||
He'd grab it's pussy first.
pointer_pointer 1 hour ago||
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pointer_pointer 1 hour ago|||
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clemailacct1 3 hours ago||
[flagged]
DangitBobby 2 hours ago|||
You have a point about it not being necessary to invoke his name here but any use of TDS just shows you are in a different reality.
KaiserPro 3 hours ago|||
are you arguing with a joke?
zuzululu 4 hours ago||
[flagged]
inigyou 4 hours ago|
all of it

and because we've been doomed since the 70s

zuzululu 4 hours ago||
but if you keep declaring a time clock every decade only to reset it for the past 50 years, does it not weaken the point of it ? we should've had an apocalypse by now, we haven't and unlikely to so for quite some time.

why are we so eager and unquestioning of the published narratives going to the length of censoring counter theories?

simmerup 1 hour ago|||
Like an alcoholic saying drinking isn’t bad because he’s been drinking since his twenties and still hasn’t got cirrhosis

By the time it’s an issue it’s too late.

zuzululu 1 hour ago||
thats a silly take, this is totally different from some pending apocalypse that is repeatedly pushed back when it doesn't happen.
inigyou 33 minutes ago||
We don't know how much he'll drink before he gets cirrhosis. Now he's 60 and should have had it already. We still think he'll have it despite previously not predicting the timeline correctly.
inigyou 3 hours ago|||
Yeah the clock turned out to be silly, but if you interpret it as risk level instead of time, it makes sense. Since the 70s we have been at a near-100% chance this would happen.
zuzululu 1 hour ago||
so the probability approaches 0% every 10 years and then goes back up to 99% the following year and repeats 5 times ?

that makes little sense to me

inigyou 32 minutes ago||
What?
giardini 4 hours ago||
[flagged]
chomp 3 hours ago||
You don't seem to understand how this works. El Niño is one half of a 2 part cycle. You don’t get permanent hurricane reduction.
tjwebbnorfolk 3 hours ago||
If/when the temperature differential between equator and pole decreases because of a warming arctic, we actually do get a permanent reduction in hurricane propensity and destructiveness.

Not everything gets worse if the planet heats up a little more.

queenkjuul 1 hour ago||
Miami will be safe from hurricanes in its new underwater locale
e_i_pi_2 4 hours ago|||
Do you know if this balances out to a lower death count than the heatwave would have, or just better for people in that area? Even thinking just about the US south I'd imagine heat is a bigger risk than hurricanes
jameshart 3 hours ago||
Let’s see…: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

> widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disasters associated with it include the Great Famine of 1876–1878 in India, the Grande Seca in Brazil, and the Northern Chinese Famine of 1876–1879.

henry2023 3 hours ago|||
Let me guess, you think solar panels are chinese spying machines.
tired-turtle 4 hours ago||
And, soon, brand new, never before seen waterfront property! Invest now so your children can enjoy sand where St. Augustine grass once flourished. \s
zippyman55 4 hours ago||
It’s the down hill house racing contest this winter that you want to pay attention to. Be sure to take precautions.
tjwebbnorfolk 3 hours ago|
If you give any regularly-occurring event that varies in intensity enough time, it is guaranteed to break the records of its previous intensities.
henry2023 3 hours ago||
Yeah like earthquakes, the top registered earthquake happened 66 years ago.

The fact that you see record breaking more often than log of time implies a drift in one direction.

simmerup 1 hour ago|||
And it varies in intensity because human activity is putting more energy into the system
tjwebbnorfolk 1 hour ago||
It varies in intensity because it always has.
henry2023 1 hour ago||
If you want to be a good denialist you’ll need better arguments my friend.
jmye 2 hours ago||
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