Posted by jandrewrogers 2 days ago
In the case that KH instabilities are weaker they claim that you can get supernovae at masses farther from the Chandrasekhar limit. This could plausibly have more of an impact on Ias as standard candles. (Though perhaps less than you might think becauseit would also likely have an effect on the shape of the light curve, and Ias are normalized based on their light curve shape.)
All that said, even if this process does occur, I doubt the rates would be high enough for it to be a substantial fraction of observed Ias.
This might be a better one.
https://medium.com/predict/why-the-dark-forest-theory-is-pro...
This video is pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0SvgT9Lc2M
This post attempts a formal refutation.
The optimal strategy in this case is to expand as quickly as possible, before others can grab or destroy resources.
seems like an odd thing to claim, given that we have no idea what's going on on any planet outside of our solar system
Still makes no sense.
So yeah, a lot of prime real state but no way to reach it.
This subplot in the book is at least reasonable. Somehow aliens capable of pico-scale engineering can't make a telescope to observe the nearby solar systems, but OK, whatever. Cultural blindness and all that.
It's the later plot with the "dark forest" that makes no sense. There are ships capable of moving at relativistic velocities and spacetime-altering weapons.
Barring some magical woo-woo technology that someone will probably insist must exist because we foolish humans are simply too stupid to understand anything, this isn't something you can just cheat. There ain't no stealth in space[0].
https://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/spacewardetect...
I don't remember any other of his books that might apply, but I haven't read all of them. (I probably should. What I have read was great.)
Otherwise though? Sophons destroy the entire premise of the "Dark Forest"! Still as I said the series is far more concerned with overt allegories (West vs East, Collectivism vs Individualism, etc), and more covert allegories that allegedly criticize the CCP's way of doing things.
I don't read Mandarin, but I suspect the ability to do so and the high context nature of the language, helps a lot in getting that across.
Hypothesis - a proposed explanation for something (such as a phenomenon of unknown cause) that is tentatively assumed in order to test whether it agrees with facts that are known or can be determined.
Theory - a scientifically acceptable or plausible general principle or body of principles based on data and offered to explain phenomena
Just because those outside of scientific fields use them interchangeably doesn't change the fact that they carry different meanings in scientific contexts.
Even more because the confidence changes all the time, but people do go around renaming well known ideas
Instead of a superintelligence killing any emerging intelligence, superintelligence is so smart that it can perturb spacetime in ways that easily kill itself.
Kind of like the idea that LLMs will give anyone with a garage the ability to create killer viruses (wild claim), a superintelligence might trivially create black holes that engulf it. If the intelligence is distributed across many agents (or nations), someone will try something stupid that kills the entire population.
It'd be even scarier if they could accidentally collapse the supposed vacuum state. Universal annihilation at the speed of light just because you got too smart.
Fragile world / fragile universe meets "too smart for your own good".
It's at least not something you'll do by accident.
"It Really Brings the Room Together" https://m.xkcd.com/1680/
M87 Size Comparison https://m.xkcd.com/2135/
Black Hole Moon https://what-if.xkcd.com/129/
We are primitive apes. We are all uniformly dumb.
There's a lot we don't know, but the fact that the universe is consistent means it has to be consistent with what we do know already. Don't be so openminded your brain falls out.
We don't know this either.
We are very limited in detection. Our energies are small.
How "standard" are standard candles and other references? Are the facts that stand as the basis for our theories even correct?
We are too primitive to be dealing in absolutes.
> We don't know this either.
See this is what I'm talking about as far as being too open-minded. Consider what it would mean for the universe to be inconsistent, particularly in relation to the astronomical observations that are the basis of this conversation.
We update our model(s) so that it keeps being consistent and predictable to us (that’s human nature), but no model can be probably correct and complete.
The only thing we can say with confidence is that the base laws of physics appear to be mostly consistent everywhere we've looked in the last hundred or two years. But also only across relatively recent history. The laws of physics were very different early on. The electic and magnetic field used to be separate things and now they aren't.
None of this is incompatible with science as a concept.
I am, however, reminded that the orbit of the asteroid Juno (~250km diameter) permanently changed in 1839 without an obvious cause.
And the referenced papers:
Probing primordial black holes and dark matter clumps in the Solar System with gravimeter and Global Navigation Satellite Systems networks - https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.110.0...
Close encounters of the primordial kind: A new observable for primordial black holes as dark matter - https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.110.0...
And the PBS Spacetime: How Many Black Holes Are In The Solar System? - https://youtu.be/wh75ubECL8I
Black holes on the order of metric tons would have evaporated by now. But primordial black holes can come in any size, and there is a vast range of them that will exist much longer than the universe has already existed.
I also don't think it would really be detectable in the Sun. Perhaps there would be some transient astroseismology signature.
A physics stack exchange answer about it: https://physics.stackexchange.com/a/55184
The most relevant part:
> The total energy created by a PBH roughly equals the energy produced by the detonation of one tonne of TNT, but this energy is the total energy it deposits along its path through the Earths diameter, not the energy it produces on impact. So don’t expect a magnificent explosion, we’d be lucky to see a spark as it hits the ground.
Two Seismic Events with the Properties for the Passage of Strange Quark Matter Through the Earth - http://www.geology.smu.edu/~dpa-www/sqm/pdf/sqm_lanl.pdf
It looks at pairs of seismic events that trace line through the earth and are timed correctly.
> Two sets of reports were found in the 1993 database that fit all the criteria for a linear source. The model and residuals (observed minus predicted arrival times) for the first event are given in Table 1. The RMS residual is 0.73 sec. This RMS value would indicate a good fit for a well-located earthquake.
A BBC article about the paper: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2502755.stm
PBS Spacetime - How Many Black Holes Are In The Solar System? https://youtu.be/wh75ubECL8I
And then How to spot tiny black holes that might pass through the solar system - https://www.sciencenews.org/article/primordial-black-holes-s...
That references two papers:
Probing primordial black holes and dark matter clumps in the Solar System with gravimeter and Global Navigation Satellite Systems networks - https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.110.0...
Close encounters of the primordial kind: A new observable for primordial black holes as dark matter - https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.110.0...
I think there's a PBS Space Time on it (of course)
adding: yup! love that show