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Posted by ceejayoz 16 hours ago

U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal(www.nbcnews.com)
341 points | 341 comments
astro1234 14 hours ago|
As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
mrloopex 13 hours ago||
This should have nothing to do with data science but basic math literacy. Quantities without context are meaningless. Reporters should know better but if when headlines have to catchy day in day out … shrugs. Stock market reporters are the worst: a 1000 point drop in the Dow meant a lot more when it was 7000 than it does at 40,000.
astro1234 12 hours ago||
Oh my god do not trigger me about the news reporting “points” for the DOW or the S&P, I have seriously considered calling news stations about this.

Or not providing inflation adjusted values when referring to historical financial reference points.

I have to go find a happy place now

mjburgess 14 hours ago|||
If honest, the error bars would be so large as to make drawing conclusions from these numbers seem pointless. Certainly, both jobs growth and jobs loss are within the CI.

What's actually being tracked by people using this data is the delta from previous years -- which, conditioning on the same collection methodology etc -- is more reliable.

The actionable piece of info is sign(delta)

rented_mule 8 hours ago|||
Something the best data scientist I ever worked with was adamant about... there is almost never an inherent "speed bump" at 0. If error bounds expand on both sides of 0, we have no idea if the true sign is positive or negative. There is no "directional" read in that case. There are some areas where 0 has a special meaning, but that's rare and the cause of that needs to be understood before assuming that's the case. Everywhere else, 0 is just another point on the number line.

> the error bars would be so large as to make drawing conclusions from these numbers seem pointless

That is often the case, and being truly data based requires acknowledging that. We can then act based on other data, or admit that we're falling back to intuition and abandoning data based decision making for now.

hrhdhdh 13 hours ago|||
[flagged]
mjburgess 13 hours ago||
Estimating the number of jobs lost is very different than estimating the sign of a difference of a fixed "error-prone method for measuring jobs lost"

The former is asking "are my weighing scales accurate?" the latter is, "do I look like i'm loosing weight?"

srghrhsr 8 hours ago||
[flagged]
europoorean 14 hours ago|||
As a physicist, I always shed a tear when looking at data without error bars.

As a data scientist/generic programmer now, I don't really see them anywhere. I remember a colleague during my postdoc saying 'don't worry, no error bars in industry' when I asked about regression with ML lol

natsucks 14 hours ago||
hah. it's true. no interest in uncertainty except when forced.
Noaidi 14 hours ago||
Our fake economy needs even more fake certainty now. They are all hiding from the obvious issue of stagflation because it is the most difficult economic problem to solve. The Fed know this which is why they did nothing with rates.
biophysboy 14 hours ago|||
The bureau of labor statistics publishes confidence intervals in their reports
jmalicki 14 hours ago|||
Not in their primary news release. A footnote says it is "generally conducted at the 90% interval", but the individual numbers do not have their actual computed error bars.

Yes, they do publish them, but it is disappointing their primary releases do not have them.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

biophysboy 13 hours ago||
It’s common in scientific/stats publishing to have the headline state the avg/median, the main text plot the errors, and the supplementary give the explicit numbers. They have a big page about std errors.
jmalicki 13 hours ago||
The main text doesn't plot the error bars, and the full data tables in their release don't have error bars either.

You have to really dig into their website to find their std errors.

biophysboy 12 hours ago||
bls.gov/ces is the main page for this survey and has a plot.

The error updates annually. Their handbook has a Reliability section where they detail sampling/nonsampling error.

throwaway27448 14 hours ago||||
NBC wouldn't know how to navigate bls.gov if you put a gun to their head. And it's all downhill from there
biophysboy 13 hours ago||
Based on the discussions in this thread, they aren’t alone
throwaway27448 13 hours ago||
I don't think most of the people in this thread are journalists
biophysboy 13 hours ago||
God help us if they ever become one
astro1234 12 hours ago|||
Yes! I am aware of this and they are really great. Problem is nobody will ever read that, but they WILL watch Fox News, CNBC, etc. and those outlets never even point out that there are errorbars/uncertainty. Then I hear things like outrage when BLS revises numbers up or down (facepalm).
renegade-otter 14 hours ago|||
The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them.

The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.

jstanley 14 hours ago|||
> The numbers are as good as they can get

That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars.

Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.

vlovich123 14 hours ago||
I would say the initial numbers should be embargoed until the number is reliable. People don’t understand error bars and reporting can more easily manipulate the current situation without outright lying.
theptip 14 hours ago|||
No, just report them with error bars. We know the 95th percentile revision size of the distribution.

Moot point as the people who actually act on the data understand how to roll their own anyway.

jfengel 12 hours ago||
Error bars would be misleading, because this isn't a sampling error. These start with actual counts. The more important errors are systematic: the definitions of terms, the reporting mechanisms, etc.

Except that those things are constant from month to month, so deltas largely cancel them out.

The problem isn't in the size of the possible errors, but in understanding what those numbers mean and how they are gathered. That requires far more background reading.

twosdai 14 hours ago||||
Both? I don't think error bars and waiting to release data until more accurate are mutually exclusive.
vlovich123 14 hours ago||
That’s what I meant. There should be error bars to reflect uncertainty of the inherent data, but they should wait until all the data that could change things comes in rather than using projections which always drastically change
jmalicki 14 hours ago||
No, they shouldn't. Timely estimates as to the best knowledge of our current situation is extremely important for decision making under uncertainty.

If the error bars are large, that is important information to know.

vlovich123 13 hours ago|||
What decisions are so important and time sensitive they depend on these numbers right after a month is over? And also we at one point were making decisions without these numbers yet the quality of the decision making isn’t clearly improved.
jmalicki 13 hours ago||
"What kind of stocks should my mutual fund invest in?"

"What sort of startups should I fund?"

"Should my business aggressively hire this quarter anticipating growth, or hold out for a possible recession?"

vlovich123 12 hours ago||
A few months of extra no data won’t impact the stock investments if no one has that data. Startup funding is similarly not so time sensitive.

As for businesses hiring, they should hire based on their own growth. Using an external signal that itself gets adjusted drastically is similarly problematic; I don’t hire because I think no one else is hiring and the numbers get majorly adjusted up. Similarly I hire a bunch of people and it turns out no one else hired.

No one benefits from faster numbers that are majorly shifted in a few months anyway. You wouldn’t make any different decision if no one had the numbers. The only thing you’re doing differently is when the numbers come out your gambling whether or not you think the true number will be revised in some major way in a few months. That’s not helpful for the economy writ large.

win311fwg 13 hours ago|||
> If the error bars are large, that is important information to know.

The data is available. If it were important to the causal reader, however, then those casual readers would have already demanded its presence. But they don't care. What difference does it make to Hilary Homemaker? She just wants to get to say "Did you hear about the bad economic news?" when gossiping with her friends.

Those who need to understand the uncertainty will already be looking at more than a news headline anyway.

parineum 13 hours ago|||
Ah yes, lie to them and withold information because the public is too stupid to understand. Then, when they don't trust you anymore, throw up your hands and say it's not your fault.
jmalicki 14 hours ago||||
That's true for the establishment survey, but the population survey, where they contact individuals, is what is actually used to calculate these numbers.

It is literally calling/writing 60,000 people and asking "are you employed? did you look for a job? Etc."

"How the government calculates unemployment" [0]

| Does anyone in this household have a business or a farm? | Last week, did you do any work for (either) pay (or profit)? | If the answer to question 1 is "yes" and the answer to question 2 is "no," the next question is: | Last week, did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm? | For those who reply "no" to both questions 2 and 3, the next key questions used to determine employment status are: | Last week, (in addition to the business) did you have a job, either full or part time? Include any job from which you were temporarily absent. | Last week, were you on layoff from a job? | What was the main reason you were absent from work last week? | For those who respond "yes" to question 5 about being on layoff, the following questions are asked:

[0] https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

amanaplanacanal 13 hours ago||
You have to wonder, since they are doing two different surveys trying to measure the same reality, which one more accurately measures the facts on the ground? Asking businesses how many people they are employing, or asking households whether or not their folks are working? The numbers don't really match up between the two.
jmalicki 13 hours ago||
This is very common for economic statistics.

GDP too. That's how you can get more accurate information, and you have actual numbers on the discrepencies.

They rely on the household data more because it doesn't have as much systemic error, even though it does have more sampling error. Asking businesses gives you a more complete picture, but it has much more bias.

Hell, this is why even in accounting, you have double-entry bookkeeping, and even there, the numbers don't always match up.

Or "my bank account doesn't match up with my cashflow statement".

It's not that one is better and you should use that, calculating multiple ways is central to accounting so you can detect errors.

jm4 14 hours ago||||
What makes you think it's small businesses? I would assume most businesses doing any reporting at all are using a payroll system. Mine handles the reporting automatically. The kinds of payroll systems used by small businesses can be set up in a day. If anything, small businesses that make even a small effort to stay on top of things have an easier time than big ones with complicated systems and processes.
pgwhalen 14 hours ago|||
I think you say “as good as they can get with [the] hard manual work that goes into compiling them” as a way to respect the challenge of the BLS and say they’re doing the best with their resources, but it’s worth pointing out they could be better with more resources.
jmalicki 14 hours ago||
DOGE hurt them pretty hard: "The Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a notice on Wednesday stating that it stopped collecting data in three not-so-small cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Buffalo, New York; and Provo, Utah) and increased “imputations” for certain items"

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/05/economy/cpi-data-bls-reductio...

cousinbryce 14 hours ago|||
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jltreliability.htm Read the docs
astro1234 13 hours ago||
Oh I’m well aware the BLS knows what they’re doing and publish error bars, they are great. The problem is news articles, no one ever reads BLS reports but they do watch Fox News, CNBC, etc. and those outlets never ever get into uncertainty.
seanhunter 12 hours ago|||
The actual source this comes from has a 90% confidence interval in the published number. When people talk about the economy gaining or losing jobs they are talking about the bureau of labor statistics "nonfarm payroll" number. The methodology and a lot more are on the bls website

https://www.bls.gov/ces/

anigbrowl 11 hours ago|||
Wait until you see the weekly reports for the Strategic Petroleum reserve. Go ahead, try to highlight that text.

https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

amelius 14 hours ago|||
Yes they should have said 23.0 * 10^3.
inigyou 13 hours ago||
2.30 × 10⁴ or bust
jewslop 13 hours ago|||
[dead]
selicos 13 hours ago||
The BLS has been gutted. It's surprising anything negative is escaping in these reports.
splatter9859 13 hours ago||
Exactly. I'm somewhat surprised someone's give-a-damn wasn't broken enough to do a cursory filter. Not like it isn't plainly obvious in other statistics, however.
nunez 14 hours ago||
> The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break.

This is not entirely accurate. AFAIK, teachers usually remain on payroll throughout the summer. This stat _might_ be talking about contractual teaching roles, like adjuncts or subs, but it's hard to say from that BLS category.

JeremyNT 13 hours ago||
Not to mention, if it's seasonal for any reason then it's something that should be baked into the cyclical expectations already.

It's like reporting that Spirit of Halloween employees accounted for the biggest retailer layoffs in November. It's a totally useless statistic that tells you nothing about what might really be going on that month that's abnormal compared to baseline.

litoE 4 hours ago|||
> teachers usually remain on payroll throughout the summer.

That is not exactly accurate. When I was teaching, my salary was for 9 months only. I was paid in 12 monthly installments to smooth out my income, but technically I was not on the University's payroll during the summer months. That allowed me to seek full-time employment elsewhere (e.g. consulting) during the summer which was not allowed during the other 9 months.

Jcampuzano2 14 hours ago|||
This is correct, teachers don't just stop getting paid and lose all benefits every summer (my best friend is a teacher and so is his brother), but at the same time it seems tons of schools now prefer (or are only able to find positions for) short contracts, more subs and temporary positions etc.

Especially if its not in a well funded area.

skinfaxi 13 hours ago||
The cost to municipalities/towns for medical insurance has skyrocketed which I think is a contributor (not to mention pension obligations for retirees).
jborden13 13 hours ago|||
I don't think it's attributable to summer break. Didn't ~1,100K teachers quit in Fort Worth, TX due (in part) to a rise in political interference?
chasd00 12 hours ago|||
> ..rise in political interference?

I haven't heard it phrased like that before hah. The truth is when a school district is bad enough the state comes in and takes it over to try and get things back on their feet. Fort Worth is just embarrassed because FWISD is so bad the state had to take it over.

My wife is a HS teacher in Richardson and one of her friends was hired as a new principal at one of the FWISD schools. She said the situation is pretty bleak and most teachers should be fired but they likely won't be able to get rid of all the bad ones. That's pretty typical unfortunately in public education.

https://www.fwisd.org/about/tea

/the same thing happened to a school district in Houston

dominotw 13 hours ago|||
no they didnt
jborden13 12 hours ago|||
This article seems to disagree

https://fortworthreport.org/2026/08/06/record-teacher-turnov...

dominotw 12 hours ago||
no it doesnt
jborden13 12 hours ago|||
you're still wrong

> Superintendent Peter Licata acknowledged that the takeover and instructional changes played a role in some educators’ decisions to leave the district.

> ...But he said he believes employees watched the transformation of Houston ISD under state control and grew wary as Fort Worth introduced standardized lessons and reorganized schools and departments.

dominotw 12 hours ago||
sure thats 'political interference' .
jborden13 11 hours ago||
Please give us your definition of the TEA takeover then.
dominotw 13 hours ago||
they obviously know that
vannevar 13 hours ago||
I would hardly call it a sudden reversal, looking at the downward trend in the numbers over the last six months or so.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

ismailmaj 13 hours ago||
Given the trend of revisions, I wouldn't be surprised if the real loss is around 6 figures, May 2026 revision went from 172k to 63k.
tetris11 12 hours ago||
What happened between February and March?
vannevar 12 hours ago||
Apparently there were healthcare strikes in February that depressed the numbers there, which were resolved by March. Also maybe data center and World Cup hospitality hiring. But hard to say. As others have noted, there are big error bands on these numbers.
sp1982 14 hours ago||
I have recently started an experiment tracking a sample of 5000 employers in US and I see a bounce last week after a brief lull in july. I am not sure if there is a strong downward trend. https://corvi.careers/reports/usa-weekly-job-openings-report...
mixdup 13 hours ago||
It's tough to trust job openings. It is a fact that some number of job postings are ghost jobs that don't exist. Either they're scams from impersonators or the companies are trying to keep a good public face, but many openings sit for MONTHS which just does not line up with the anecdotal evidence of people going 6-12 months without an interview much less an offer
gmueckl 13 hours ago|||
Some of these offers may be part of visa or green card processes. Some require a labor market test in the form of a job ad and recorded response to it. If a suitable candidate applies, the visa/immigration process fails. Still, most companies don't intend to actually hire in this case as far as I understand it.
Aurornis 13 hours ago||||
> but many openings sit for MONTHS which just does not line up with the anecdotal evidence of people going 6-12 months without an interview much less an offer

Neither of these things are evidence of “ghost jobs”.

When I was doing a lot of hiring it would often take months to find qualified candidates for basic roles. I would get 100s of applicants per month but only about 20% of the resumes I received were even close to qualified. I’d try to schedule intro and screening calls with the qualified ones who would actually respond, but you wouldn’t believe how many applicants would have unreliable communication skills. Some times I wouldn’t get a response from someone for weeks or more, but many just don’t respond to contact after applying to your company. If we’re using the lingo I think a lot are “ghost candidates”.

There’s further fallout through the interview pipelines as you discover how many people have lied on their resume or otherwise aren’t qualified. That self-styled C++ expert who can’t give an example of RAII or the self-proclaimed TypeScript expert who doesn’t know anything outside of vanilla JavaScript. It’s weird.

Then there are negotiations. Some candidates want to collect offers from multiple companies and will ask for delays in hiring so they can continue interviewing and getting other offers. It can take weeks for some candidates to accept or decline your offer. If they decline you have to go to the next candidate, which can take more weeks, and then on to the next. If there’s relocation involved it takes longer to decide and get it done.

Then some times we’re hiring multiple people for a row, so we leave the listing up and open to continue hiring. This really angers the “ghost jobs” people because they assume 1 listing == 1 hire, as if the company needs to close the listing and then copy/paste to a new URL for the next hire.

So job openings that exist for “MONTHS” are not evidence of ghost jobs.

The people going 12 months without an interview are almost always doing something wrong. You wouldn’t believe how inexcusably bad many of the resumes out there can be. Some people are hung up on applying only to jobs they aren’t qualified for and then wonder why they’re not getting interviews.

eightysixfour 13 hours ago||||
I think that is slightly blunted by this person looking at the week over week delta.
mixdup 13 hours ago||
maybe, but ghost listings have to be posted at some point, and who knows how long the companies want to let them go (and sometimes they expire and someone needs to refresh them)

they're not all ghost jobs, and there is probably a base level of noise there you can ignore, but the variability doesn't mean the data is great and perfect

DonsDiscountGas 13 hours ago|||
True, but is there any reason to think this dishonesty varies over time? The trend could be informative even if the raw numbers are nonsense
sp1982 13 hours ago||
Yup, and my data only captures a part of professional job market which itself is small part of labor market. I'd use this as additional data point to other sources to correlate etc. However, the experiment is mostly to test my own thesis that unless there is a major event like covid, these trends are really hard to spot.
VirusNewbie 12 hours ago||
Google will put one job posting per PA per level regardless of one team hiring or twenty.

I have to assume they aren't the only employer to do this, so I think job openings are meaningless here.

forlorn_mammoth 15 hours ago||
What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.
eigenspace 15 hours ago||
Healthcare has consistently been one of the biggest drivers of US GDP and job growth numbers for years now.

This is one of the major things that has helped explain why US consumer sentiment has been so out of step with headline numbers like employment, consumer spending, and GDP.

It also helps explain why there's so many economists are saying they see limited evidence of a "K-shaped economy", and say they see positive numbers throughout the distribution. It's very difficult to choose not to buy healthcare.

glaslong 15 hours ago||
So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.
eru 14 hours ago|||
You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector.

(The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)

orwin 14 hours ago|||
Singapore numbers ignore their underclass, which is significant. But you're right, if you're a westerner, Singapore's great.
eru 14 hours ago|||
Any 'underclass' also contributes to GDP and consumes healthcare. How is any of this ignored?

But yes, I agree that the US should let in more migrant workers. Good for the workers and good for the target country: cheap infrastructure is great!

rangestransform 12 hours ago|||
I wish the US could also use migrant labour like Singapore instead of the current system of turning a blind eye to illegal immigration out of necessity
georgeburdell 14 hours ago||||
Singapore is the beneficiary of a neighboring impoverished itinerant workforce to supplement its own collapsing demographics with artificially cheap services. It’s hardly replicable most places.
eru 14 hours ago|||
> It’s hardly replicable most places.

How so? What's hard to replicate here? Many rich places could let in more migrant workers. It's good for the workers, and good for the receiving country.

zer00eyz 14 hours ago|||
So is the USA...
georgeburdell 14 hours ago||
No it isn’t. Malaysians commute across the river daily and then return at night, having provided their services in exchange for compensation. Singapore gets the work without many of the associated problems with housing those people long term. As a result, there are some ridiculously niche jobs in Singapore that would not exist in another rich country, such as widespread domestic servitude and manual street sweeping
eru 14 hours ago|||
How is that different from people living in New Jersey and commuting to Manhattan?
alex43578 13 hours ago|||
Because unless you really just want to prop up only Manhattan’s statistics at the expense of NJ’s, it’s irrelevant to a discussion about US labor statistics.
vel0city 13 hours ago|||
New Jersey and Manhattan are both a part of the same country last I checked.

Malaysia and Singapore are two different countries. Despite being right next to each other they have vastly different GDPs, standards of living, government benefits, etc.

eru 13 hours ago||
Malaysia and Singapore used to be one country.

New Jersey and Manhattan are in different states. But in any case, why so xenophobic? Borders are an administrative hassle, but they have no moral weight.

vel0city 12 hours ago||
I didn't realize acknowledging NY and NJ are in the same country is a xenophobic take.

Borders are a lot more than just a bit of paperwork or "administrative hassle". Central America is a very different place from US & Canada in many ways. Malaysia is quite a bit different from Singapore in a lot of ways despite such intertwined history.

I'm not passing any moral judgement here, I'm just acknowledging current reality. Singapore and Malaysia are different countries. NY and NJ are two states in the same country. The relationship is very different. Even with "Imperium in imperio" in the US.

To have a similar kind of comparison one would look at the cyclical migrant labor between the Southwestern US and Mexico.

rangestransform 12 hours ago|||
The US could achieve the same thing with a proper migrant labour program
pfdietz 13 hours ago||||
Health outcomes in the US are affected by higher levels of obesity. If anything, the higher health spending keeps that from being worse. I expect Ozempic and the like to have a significant impact on this.
skinfaxi 13 hours ago||||
Your statement prompted me to look at immigration options in Singapore. It seems it is pretty reasonable to get a visa as a foreign technologist.
eru 1 hour ago||
Yes, if you are into tech, they really want you to come.

Another benefit: they tell you pretty quickly whether your application is approved or not.

toomuchtodo 14 hours ago||||
Europe is also excellent in my experience, specifically Portugal and Spain. My health insurance cost for a family of four in Spain is ~$2k/year as someone on a visa. In the US on an employer plan, it was ~$20k/year (premiums, copays, etc).
asa123 14 hours ago|||
I think the commenter you responded to filtered first for countries with outcomes better or exceeding the US? Though I’m not sure Portugal and Spain automatically fall into that category
eru 14 hours ago|||
Oh, I picked Singapore, because I moved here. I picked US because that was the topic under discussion. And Britain because the parent comment talked about 'free' healthcare.
asa123 13 hours ago||
complete misreading between the lines on my part then apologies
eru 13 hours ago||
Oh, no worries at all.
toomuchtodo 14 hours ago|||
I can only n=1, but most, if not all, experiences we've had obtaining medical care were better in Europe. Care specialist for my autistic kids, primary care, etc. From my unofficial surveys, many folks I know in the US are having a hard time finding various care providers, even if they have insurance. More data on this is always welcome.
amanaplanacanal 13 hours ago|||
It seems fairly common in the US to have a hard time finding a doctor that will take your insurance, especially so if you are on Medicaid. Even with good insurance, a lot are just not seeing new patients. More and more tasks are being pushed off onto nurse practitioners and physician's assistants. And the number of residencies is still limited by the AMA, so you aren't getting enough new doctors.
asa123 13 hours ago|||
I can believe this; it's my personal and anecdotal evidence (and that which is believed by family) that the maximum quality of US medical care is quite incredible, but any perceived median (accounting for accessibility and cost) is really quite shit
eru 14 hours ago||||
A quick search suggests that Spain spends around 9.3% of gdp on healthcare. The UK spends around 10.9%. Singapore is around 5.5%.
toomuchtodo 13 hours ago||
While interesting facts, this is typically not the primary criteria which people use to decide where to expat to, versus availability and affordability. I cannot speak to the residency requirements of Singapore, but those of western Europe are very generous, as some who has helped folks leave the US for there. If you are in Spain on a tourist visa, and apply for the equivalent of a digital nomad visa while in country, you get three years as a temporary resident. At three years, you re-apply for another two years, and after those five years you can apply for permanent residency. 80% of your income must come from outside of Spain. They’ll even take a letter from a US W2 employer as income verification.

If you have any resources you can recommend on immigrating to Singapore that would be helpful and relevant for folks considering it as an option (whether on an employment, student, or pension/non lucrative visa), I welcome them to add to my resources for distribution to those seeking an exit strategy. Thank you in advance.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47161587 (resources)

eru 13 hours ago||
Oh, I was purely talking about what healthcare costs society.

I love it in Singapore, but if you don't want to live in a steam sauna, there are better countries for you. And if you are an American, I guess you don't even benefit from our more enlightened tax system anyway.

toomuchtodo 13 hours ago||
> And if you are an American, I guess you don't even benefit from our more enlightened tax system anyway.

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/fore...

> If you are a U.S. citizen or a resident alien of the United States and you live abroad, you are taxed on your worldwide income. However, you may qualify to exclude your foreign earnings from income up to an amount that is adjusted annually for inflation. In addition, you can exclude or deduct certain foreign housing amounts.

So there are mechanisms by which to avoid paying income tax to the US as as someone with a potential US tax liability living and working abroad, although it can be a facts intensive situation. Think like a Hacker, this is just another system and set of rules to hack ("How can I live outside the US, maximize my quality of life, pay the taxes due to my residency jurisdiction, while avoiding paying as much US federal income tax as possible?").

(For the 2026 tax year, the maximum Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE) is $132,900 per qualifying person, an increase from $130,000 for 2025. Married couples where both spouses work abroad and qualify can exclude up to a combined $265,800; the contents of this comment are for educational purposes only, and are not financial or tax advice, speak with a professional)

ricardobayes 14 hours ago|||
Yes and for something rare or complex, you can always fall back on the public health insurance.
toomuchtodo 14 hours ago||
I appreciate the collectivism and it is a component of why I am happy to pay Europe any of the taxes they ask for.
logicchains 13 hours ago||||
The US has around 4x the obesity rate of Singapore, which significantly reduces healthcare costs.
dominotw 12 hours ago||||
> Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.

healthcare is not for health. Its for sickness. Going to hospital doesnt make you "healthy" . We dont have any medicines to restore health to ppl suffering for diseases majority of healthcare spend goes to.

Maybe those countries dont have sickly population in the first palce like usa where a majority have metabolic diseases.

kevin_thibedeau 14 hours ago|||
Singapore has severe consequences for executives who violate the public trust. That makes it hard for sociopaths to rig the system for the elites.
glaslong 13 hours ago|||
Stoppp, y'all really are making me want to move to Singapore with promises like that.
eru 14 hours ago|||
Maybe. Though Americans are free to vote for politicians who make similar laws, too.
kevin_thibedeau 12 hours ago||
The people who make the laws are the wealthy who pay their think tanks and lobbyists to write them. Nobody gets elected without being owned by a puppet master.
eru 1 hour ago||
If only!

If rich people had so much influence, Romney and Bloomberg would have been presidents.

WarmWash 14 hours ago||||
There will never be a better healthcare because the true cost of fixing a body more often than not far exceeds the value that body produces.

People run to dismiss this with "well we need a different system then", but the problem is a fundamental one on par with "eating your cake and having it too".

The only way to get as close as possible to "good" healthcare is to have enough money to pay for everything out of pocket.

elmer2 12 hours ago|||
"The only way to get as close as possible to "good" healthcare is to have enough money to pay for everything out of pocket."

This isn't possible. Healthcare is a finite resource and having universal, government care not only puts your life into the hands of the government (see the UK for an example where parents are not allowed to take their children out of the hospital) but offers worse outcomes.

When you are young and healthy, it's great. As you age, life-or-death surgeries have long wait times. This can be seen in any country with universal care. My aging relatives in Canada are going through this right now and have been forced to come to the US to get surgery in months rather than waiting years.

MAID has been great for healthcare costs in Canada. Many people that would otherwise have been costing the system money, are now a benefit. The sad realization is that government-run programs need MAID to cut down on costs.

I know lots of expats living in Asia that are now getting older. They have to go elsewhere to get any surgeries done, because of this exact reason.

To make it better, we should only have insurance for surgeries that can't benefit from the free market and are relatively rare. Common surgeries and procedures should have no insurance. The prices would eventually fall to levels that were affordable.

The masses don't want plans like this. They like easy solutions that sound good when you say them and don't take a whole lot of thought besides an elementary school level of thinking.

malfist 14 hours ago||||
There are already better systems of healthcare. The US one is only good if you're wealthy
tumdum_ 13 hours ago||
It’s actually better to be average Western European than white and top 1-5% American: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
eigenspace 12 hours ago|||
It turns out that when you make a massive profit motive to sell expensive fancy interventions, health outcomes suffer.

You see this to an even more extreme degree amongst the ultra rich and powerful, who are often using cutting edge, experimental treatments, and often reaping the downsides of being on that edge (though of course also the upsides).

WarmWash 12 hours ago|||
To be fair, the structure of that study is pretty bizarre. Why only look at 6 specific illnesses rather than something like life expectancy?
tumdum_ 12 hours ago||
They are looking at the outcomes of specific procedures because they are interested in the health care system quality. Looking at things like life expectancy would make it impossible to disentangle them from other factors like lifestyle or environment.
WarmWash 11 hours ago||
Sure, but it's only six (6) specific illnesses. There are tens of thousands of illnesses. I'm almost 100% confident you could cherry pick any six illenses to get any outcome you want.

Edit: Seems the lead author is also a vocal supporter of universal healthcare, being a senior fellow of the Center for American Progress. So yeah, probably why it's such a strange setup, and what compelled me to check since this kind of thing is super common for "activist research".

I guess the takeaway is to always take a study for what it is, rather than what it paints itself to be.

tumdum_ 10 hours ago||
So you are saying that they cherrypicked some obscure illnesses to make Europe look good? They used data for:

- infant mortality

- maternal mortality

- colon and breast cancer survival

- heart attack mortality

- childhood acute lymphocytic leukemia (most common childhood cancer)

Those are one of the most common health issues.

Also, here is another recent paper showing how it’s better (health care wise) to be average in EU than wealthy in US: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa2408259

WarmWash 10 hours ago||
No, I didn't make the argument they were obscure, in fact they all are from a set of common illnesses that....also contains thousands of illnesses. Again, this is the kind of stuff you see with "activist research". Why would they only do 6 instead of hundreds or thousands? I'm sure you see my point.

There are also other oddities like using median county wealth rather than household wealth. In many wealthy counties there are still poor areas, I know more than a few. In fact if you look at the appendix, most of the households in the study are, well, average or poor. They also don't include absolute numbers or definitions for the illnesses.

All in all, it's a bad study, and clearly made to color in an agenda.

The second study looks more grounded, thanks.

glaslong 13 hours ago||||
I don't really need to live forever, I just don't want to have to think about whether bleeding out in a cab is a better deal than an ambulance.

Or if that random doctor who just walked in is out of network and going to charge $30,000 for my stitches when $3,000 was already egregious.

preg_match 12 hours ago||||
There will never be a perfect healthcare system, sure, but the US healthcare system is just bad, and can be improved. We pay more for worse outcomes on average compared to most developed countries. Obviously it's just not working, I think it's indisputable at this point.
order-matters 14 hours ago||||
> the true cost of fixing a body more often than not far exceeds the value that body produces

i softly agree but also think that a body does not need to generate value to pay for the costs in order for the whole process to sustain itself. Monitoring the stars for asteroids heading towards earth provides no market value, for example, but we can still afford to do it. so it's a matter of cost and available expenditure. the market is not net 0, so its possible to generate enough value to have enough to afford healthcare as an expense as a society

what are the costs of fixing a body? The residency pipeline is a bottleneck on labor, but assuming that gets sorted out and AI is capable of guiding any reasonable person through the process, why cant the cost of labor for a doctor drop dramatically?

i would guess limited resources are the biggest blockage, but i dont know how to break down a $20k hospital bill for giving birth into its actual costs. its hard to believe that really needs to be $20k.

I actually think its the opposite. there is so much friction with healthcare and the process of healing is slow enough that costs are inflated because the overall operating cost for the entire facility including rent, ER, having people on standby, who knows what else, all need to be recovered through whatever volume they process and they arent processing as quickly as the resources are able.

healthcare needs do not subscribe to a neat work schedule, and so we have to pay a lot of market prices to have the right availability at all times. but thats not a true cost, it is a result of accounting and underutilization

thuuuomas 14 hours ago|||
Redundancy is robustness is expensive.
inigyou 13 hours ago||||
If everything but healthcare is completely automated, all employed people will be employed in healthcare.
macintux 13 hours ago|||
Growing up, almost every woman I was related to was in education. Principal, office staff, teachers.

Now, almost every woman I'm related to is in health care.

I've been joking for years that eventually everyone will either be in the hospital, or working there.

gruez 15 hours ago|||
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect

Any sector that's resistant to productivity growth is liable to become bigger and bigger part of the economy.

maerF0x0 14 hours ago|||
I've seen on youtube how people said a major reason housing is a big employer and housing has not fallen in price is due to their industry's attitude and resistance to introducing technological advancements.

in fairness also regulation makes it hard when it specificies the solutions not the parameters (just to illustrate the idea not an actual rule: you must have X thickness of PVC versus your pipe must withstand X pressure)

pfdietz 13 hours ago|||
And also when doctors are expected to provide the best treatments or else they can be sued for malpractice.
lotsofpulp 14 hours ago|||
Demonstrating the waste of time that 99.9% of Youtube videos offer. Construction has seen tremendous technological advances, from materials to tools, even down to software that monitors workplace events.

All of these have led to conditions where it is expected for an entire house to go from start to finish in 100 days. A house with very high standards of plumbing, electrical, hvac, insulation, and other essentials compared to previous generations.

maerF0x0 7 hours ago||
And yet so much stick built instead of manufactured, for example.

And I agree that the standards have been rising such as better R-values, car charging, AC, cat5 etc.

lotsofpulp 7 hours ago||
Because stick built is superior to manufactured for 95% of situations and buyers. There is a reason why it’s so ubiquitous. The US is blessed to have access to cheap sticks.
notfromhere 14 hours ago|||
yeah but the size of the us healthcare sector (like 18%) is a policy choice, other developed countries have theirs at 10-12%.

U.S. healthcare is a giant predatory clusterfuck and seems impossible to meaningfully reform.

rangestransform 12 hours ago|||
You can’t reform it because of the immense job loss that would result from an efficiently run public healthcare system. Think about all the useless paper pushers that are allowed to vote
francisofascii 14 hours ago||||
Like the US Justice system, the best advice to give is to avoid the US Healthcare system as much as possible.
eru 14 hours ago|||
Singapore has more like 5.5% or so. (That's total expenditure: public plus private added up.)
peter_stokes 15 hours ago|||
i think population pyramids will basically guarantee growth of that sector in almost all first world countries for thenext few decades
dlcarrier 10 hours ago||
Yeah, but then the elderly population will start shrinking, which will cause a myriad of disruptions.
jmuguy 15 hours ago|||
This has been the case in several recent reports. It really ought to put to bed the idea that Trump was somehow going to be "good for business" and bring back manufacturing. At best all he's done is create a ton of uncertainty, at worst he's actively harmed massive swaths of American businesses with tariffs, war, and gutting the federal workforce and programs that indirectly supported a ton of businesses.
biophysboy 14 hours ago|||
Based on their July 2026 report, there were tiny increases in several sectors. The big declines were in service providing, leisure and hospitality, and government (bc of a summer decline in local gov education).
jordanb 15 hours ago|||
I don't think many of the BBB healthcare cuts have hit yet.
amanaplanacanal 13 hours ago||
Most of the cuts were scheduled for after the midterms, you can guess why.
codegeek 14 hours ago|||
I don't call that Heathcare. It call that Heath"Scam" run by Big Pharma and Insurance Mafia.
pixelesque 15 hours ago|||
It was the same in June I think...
dgellow 15 hours ago||
That has been the case for most of the year IIRC
orangeberrytea 13 hours ago|||
Death can't get laid off
nprz 15 hours ago|||
Wealthy, aging boomers with increasing need for health care, makes sense.
dlcarrier 10 hours ago|||
They're also the target of a lot of campaigning, so politicians promise to give them even more services and fewer taxes.
eigenspace 14 hours ago|||
It's not just boomers (though they are the biggest part of it).

Americans of all ages are spending more on healthcare, and seeking more healthcare interventions than in previous decades.

TSiege 14 hours ago|||
This isn’t surprising. The population overall is aging. Millenials are now the largest cohort and are approaching middle age. Until recently we’ve seen the number of insured individuals rise consistently and our medicine continues to advance. More older adults have access and need more healthcare
eigenspace 14 hours ago|||
No, I mean on an age-corrected basis, throughout the spectrum of ages.

i.e. young americans are spending more on health care than young americans used to, even if it's also true that there are fewer young americans now, and more old americans.

bluGill 14 hours ago|||
There is a lot more to spend it on. I'm gen-X, ADHD wasn't even heard of by most people until I was in college, and then it was only diagnosed/treated in the worst cases. Today most kids I know are on some medication for ADHD. A few years ago a friend of mine was told "too bad you are not 25 - I know what treatment you need but we can't give it to someone over 25" - he went to the Mayo clinic for his condition at 23 but the treatment didn't even exist yet so it was a waste of time.

In 1860 someone who went to a doctor would have worse outcomes than someone who stayed home. As medicine gets better over time there is more and more value in seeing a doctor. In turn more an more people are talking to their doctor about things that they would have just ignored a few generations ago. Sometimes this results in unnecessary treatment, but it also results in catching and fixing a lot of real problems that would have made life worse before we could treat it.

eigenspace 14 hours ago||
Sure, this is of course true, but there's also a reason that Americans spend way way more on their healthcare than any other developed nation, and it's not that they have better healthcare, or more healthcare options.
IncreasePosts 14 hours ago|||
Part of the Obamacare mandate was forcing young men into health insurance policies when in the past they had a much higher opt out percentage.
silverquiet 13 hours ago|||
As a young man, can I opt into Medicare since I'm opted in to paying for it?
eigenspace 14 hours ago|||
Sure, but that's not what's driving these increases in costs.
SoftTalker 14 hours ago||
Why not? Higher demand -> Higher prices.
amanaplanacanal 13 hours ago||
I don't see how that applies to insurance. The demand pays for it's own supply. The insurance company doesn't have to ramp up production somehow.
jandrewrogers 14 hours ago||||
It isn't just aging.

Americans are spending a lot more on quality-of-life medical interventions, many of which are outside the normal standard of care that would be covered by healthcare systems. It is a booming business in the US and many people seem to have no trouble paying for it.

boelboel 13 hours ago||
It's like the hydration revolution, wealthy Americans (or those who aspire to be) are very conscious about their health/career/investments/childcare/looks. Many of them seem quite neurotic, maybe it's a consequence of individualism and social media. I don't think it's something which is unique to the US but they're just ahead/rich compared to other countries.
georgeburdell 14 hours ago|||
Just as an anecdote, I’m an older Millennial (1982) and since my late 30s I’ve been spending my HDHP cap in health services that my parents wouldn’t have bothered with, such as allergy shots and niche diagnostic blood tests based on the latest science, some of which have been covered here such as HSCRP. I’ve also had LASIK and had laser skin treatments done. I’m not a health nut, I just realized I don’t have to look and feel like crap in my 40s like my progenitors.
neutronicus 14 hours ago|||
I'm sure ADHD medications / antidepressants / GLP-1s are huge drivers.
maerF0x0 14 hours ago||
It's my hypothesis that boomers passing away + GLPs largely ending obesity will result in a sharp drop in total healthcare spending in the next decade or two

My main caveat / counter point is that preventative care may actually increase as more and more people jump on the live for ever, dont die, longevity hacking trend.

chasd00 14 hours ago|||
there's a massive wave of elderly coming (boomer generation) so it makes sense health care is going to becoming an even bigger economic force than it already is.
weezing 14 hours ago|||
Clankers won't replace medical workers as fast. People get older and have less children too.
carlosjobim 14 hours ago|||
Not strange. All the money and wealth is in the hands of the olds and olds need much more health care than the young. So it's a gold rush to get their juicy dollars.
chasd00 14 hours ago||
I know i'm just one guy but I'm 50 and the old people i know are very poor and supported entirely by their children. It would be interesting to see the median and mean wealth for people >70 and compare the two.
carlosjobim 13 hours ago||
All wealth is held by olds, but that doesn't mean that all olds are rich.

All basketball players are tall, but that doesn't mean that all tall people are basketball players.

eethrowaway 14 hours ago||
[dead]
ethagnawl 15 hours ago||
And, as a result, the market is ... up?
ninkendo 15 hours ago||
Unemployment makes it more likely for the fed to lower interest rates, which makes the stock market more attractive, so, yes.

(Unemployment also generally causes lower inflation in general, at least according to the prevailing macroeconomic school of thought.)

jrflo 13 hours ago||
The Fed is not going to cut rates. Looking at Fed Rate futures they only predict increases:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

energy123 14 hours ago|||
Private sector gained jobs. Public sector lost more jobs than the private sector gained. News reports a negative number.
andxor 13 hours ago|||
This is why engineers don't make money trading markets
mapontosevenths 15 hours ago|||
I wonder if this is the evidence of the labor market decoupling from "the economy" in terms of economic productivity?

Folks keep predicting it. Maybe it's starting?

dehrmann 12 hours ago|||
It's not. 23,000 jobs is 0.01% of the workforce, so it's negligible in terms of lost sales (probably hurts consumer confidence more). But it is a signal that the economy isn't running too hot, so the company's much larger borrowing costs aren't going up.
MSFT_Edging 15 hours ago|||
Maybe we can finally reach communism by first getting together and all agreeing "the economy" isn't a science and if we all just believe really hard, numbers can go up forever, then we won't even need money!
Jensson 14 hours ago|||
It only works until people try to withdraw money that doesn't exist. The less people believe the earlier that happens, but it will happen sooner or later.
micromacrofoot 14 hours ago||
Never withdraw money, only take out loans! the survivors will sort it out, or not... we'll be dead so who cares.
Lord-Jobo 13 hours ago||
Promote this man immediately to the head of our new megacorp Walmart-Exxon-Lockheed-Yum.
parineum 13 hours ago||||
Anything you can measure can be a science.
JKCalhoun 15 hours ago|||
I think we're there already?
staticman2 14 hours ago|||
If the market expected a worse job loss than 23,000 that would make sense.

I'm not actually suggesting there's a good reason for market swings, just that bad news shouldn't necessarily cause the market to go down.

pickleglitch 14 hours ago||
Yesterday they were expecting the report to show 80k+ jobs added. So, this is much, much worse than expected. The market is up because they expect this will keep the fed from raising interest rates, and also because the market is increasingly detached from reality.
IAmGraydon 1 hour ago|||
Perhaps the market takes job loss as a sign that AI is replacing jobs, which would be a positive for stocks, at least for now.
cxmcc 14 hours ago|||
Bad news is good news, leading to possibly fewer rate hikes
Noaidi 14 hours ago||
There is no good news. This is stagflation. Worst case scenario.
JKCalhoun 15 hours ago|||
Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.
bluGill 14 hours ago|||
Bad news sells. There is always some bad news to print so you hear about it. That doesn't mean things are bad though.
win311fwg 14 hours ago||||
For a selloff to happen, investors have to believe there is a better place for them to go. At worst, any bad news right now is making everything look equally bad, so there is no advantage to running away from Wall Street in particular.
ai-x 14 hours ago||||
skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance.

It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign appropriate weights to events and allow randomness that complain about not understanding markets.

andxor 8 hours ago||
You're getting downvoted but you're exactly right
arcrevenant 9 hours ago|||
Gross dude

That comment should be illegal

Send it back across the Diarrhio Grande

marifjeren 15 hours ago|||
Jobs down, threat of increased interest rates down
DonsDiscountGas 7 hours ago|||
Sure why not. Mercury is in retrograde after all
Noaidi 14 hours ago|||
The market is going up because the market (AI) thinks it means there will be a rate cut. Which is good for stocks.

But I have to inform you all that we are in a period of stagflation and there is no way out but pain for someone. Either the asset holders or the regular people who need to buy things.

jrflo 13 hours ago||
This is a nothingburger article, 23,000 jobs lost is essentially flat.
Waterluvian 14 hours ago||
Meanwhile Canada is up 75,000 jobs in July. Can't wait to see the next tantrum America throws our way.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-july-2026-9.729...

epistasis 13 hours ago||
One of the saddest parts of the current era is the wedge that has been driven in the US/Canada relationship. Canada is in the process of removing as many dependencies on the US as possible, because the US has destroyed trust in it, resulting in the need to turn to countries like China to be bigger trading partners. I'd say there's a possibility (as in > 30% chance) that Canada and European nations enter a post-NATO defense organization that excludes the US, something that seemed absolutely ludicrous even two years ago.

Sadly, the people responsible for this in the US have no clue it's happening, no clue of the negative consequences they will face because of it, and show a general disregard for understanding things or relationships in general. The information environment in the US has been rewarding ignorant selfishness for too long, shifting the entire nature of about 30%-50% of the population in negative way.

Waterluvian 12 hours ago||
It's incredibly sad. It's such a lose-lose situation we're all in. We have enormous natural resources to share with an enormous industrial partner, we share an enormous land border, and are two of the culturally closest nations on the planet. China being the more palatable power to partner with is a horrifyingly bad sign that there's something deeply broken and in need of repair in the U.S.
thisisauserid 13 hours ago|||
Roughly 40 percent of Canadians in the top 1 percent of earners have moved to the US.

https://thehub.ca/2026/04/03/can-anyone-solve-canadas-brain-...

babypuncher 12 hours ago|||
Ah, so the class of people least impacted by the chaos happening down here. The class of people who couldn't care less about things like "civil rights" and "social safety nets" for the poor as long as they get their tax cuts.
wesleywt 13 hours ago|||
How is this related?
thisisauserid 13 hours ago||
[flagged]
kwar13 13 hours ago|||
somehow it seems like you're implying that canada is doing better than the usa. just look at the last 10 years of real gdp growth and it couldn't be any worse for canada.
Lord-Jobo 13 hours ago|||
As everyone knows, real gdp growth is the only metric of goodness. All other numbers and figures are meaningless, we all down before the might RGDPG
kwar13 11 hours ago|||
since you seem to know better, id like to know on which dimensions you think canada is doing any better than usa in the past 10-15 years as whole, or even versus other g7.

general employment? youth employment? labor participation? happiness index? gdp per capita? patents per capita? skilled migration? housing affordability? general inflation? stock market performance? real wages? housing burden? life satisfaction? growth of small business? startup echo system?

__MatrixMan__ 13 hours ago|||
How about I sell you a dollar? My price will be one dollar. Then you can sell it back, and we'll have three GDP-dollars in total! On the basis of this remarkable profit, we can probably convince others to sell their dollars to us as well, because we can turn those dollars into similar profits faster than whatever the employees might've done with them. Economics is great. We're going to have such large numbers!
Joel_Mckay 13 hours ago|||
%Debt to GDP ratio is not a subject either country likes to focus on.

The magnificent 7 formed a large portion of the US growth numbers, but many have legally hidden >$1.6Tn in "AI" debt deep in the pages of their reports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NufJ7g63KSY

The Shrek movie is due out in July 2027, and strangely these often correlated with market corrections in the past. =3

okdood64 14 hours ago|||
Sorry, what's the connection here?
gf263 14 hours ago|||
What’s the connection between the two most intertwined economies on planet earth?
bryanlarsen 13 hours ago||||
That looking at monthly numbers is stupid? The US has had significantly more job growth in 2026 than Canada has. The July numbers are convergence to a roughly common mean.
Waterluvian 13 hours ago|||
It is stupid. But the connection is that the Americans do international politics in an abusive way now. There is a very real possibility that their leader will see domestic bad number and foreign good number and throw a fit and look for something or someone to beat on. By all means, someone please tell him that looking at the numbers is stupid.

In particular, the Americans have been throwing endless tantrums Canada's way. This week we're "nasty people" because we refuse to become an ecnomimc vassal state. I'm sure we'll hear more tariff sabre rattling from the Americans soon.

kylehotchkiss 13 hours ago||
* American leadership. The president’s only understanding of our brotherly northern neighbor is South Park portrayals.

I haven’t even met a conservative who has ever had any sort of problem with Canada

Waterluvian 13 hours ago|||
I really need more Americans to understand that to the other 95% of the world you are a single entity. We don't get to do diplomacy or trade deals with the Democrats or the good Republicans or specific states. The tariffs and threats are American tariffs and American threats.
epistasis 13 hours ago||
And the rest of the world has it's thumb on what's actually important: it doesn't really matter what conservatives believe, or liberals believe, or leftists believe, or even what the general US believes, when complete control of the government has been handed over to a single individual and his whims.

Supposed values of conservatives don't matter at all when value #1 is to be obedient to the one person they want to put in charge of all branches of the US government.

The US has emptied its warehouses of precision munitions to fight a war/non-war that nobody inside the US understands, wants, or could even explain in a half rational way. Yet it still happened! So the US is not behaving like a democracy in any functional sense any more. It's an autocracy, where the autocrat does what he wants, no matter what the rest of the nation wants.

bryanlarsen 13 hours ago|||
That's changing, surveys show American conservative opinions of Canada has been dropping rapidly.
epistasis 13 hours ago|||
Looking beyond the monthly numbers, it came out today that the prior "good" numbers in the US were a mirage, and actually very very low.

So if you think looking at monthly numbers is "stupid", the only thing more stupid would be to take past good monthly numbers at face value, but then disregard the corrections that come later.

jayd16 13 hours ago||||
Canada is currently on the short list of countries Trump throws into his usual mad-libs of grievance flavored policy making.
brazukadev 13 hours ago|||
It doesn't need a connection (even tho there are many). The US/Trump is going after Brazil for creating a payment system.
zuzululu 8 hours ago|||
over half of that was increase in part-time in retail/services/food industry yet youth unemployment is all time high so who are these "Canadians" working these jobs that traditionally went to the youth?
throwaway29812 14 hours ago|||
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orangeberrytea 13 hours ago||
[flagged]
jjgreen 13 hours ago|||
an LLM was able to confirm

Bless

orangeberrytea 1 hour ago||
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Waterluvian 13 hours ago||||
It seems you're misinformed and confused.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025007/artic...

cyanregiment 1 hour ago|||
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theredones 1 hour ago|||
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wesleywt 13 hours ago|||
Perhaps you shouldn't use Grok.
theredones 1 hour ago||
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jimmydoe 15 hours ago||
govt is resetting the baseline now, so we will see some good numbers in November.

it's all about optics for mid term.

m-hodges 14 hours ago||
No. Very bad economic numbers in August before a midterm is not a cunning political optics move.
not_a_bot_4sho 14 hours ago|||
I'm surprised by the conspiratorial comments here like this is some sort of 4D chess move. *It's not.*

This is chickens coming home to roost from US actions in Iran, with tariffs, and other things introducing economic uncertainty.

As you alluded to; this is terrible for Republicans in power. And quite useful for Democrats.

gcanyon 14 hours ago|||
It doesn’t matter whether it is a good move; just whether they think it’s a good move.
m-hodges 14 hours ago||
They don’t. They aren’t faking the BLS numbers as an electoral strategy. No one at WH or NRCC or CLF are rubbing their hands together as if this is all according to plan.
wavemode 14 hours ago|||
if the government was able to lie on the jobs report, why wouldn't they just continuously pretend that jobs are up from now all the way through the election? (all the way through to the presidential election, for that matter)
Yapping7880 14 hours ago|||
The 2026 midterm election date is November 3rd, the jobs numbers are released on the first Friday of the month, November 6th. Intentionally trending numbers down in August, with only two more jobs reports before the election, would be risky (and stupid, and extremely unlikely). The Trump Administration just doesn't look ahead like that either, they live in the perpetual now.
jordanb 15 hours ago||
Maybe. But I think the government could just lie about both quarters and then restate after the election.
bitmasher9 15 hours ago|||
The worse Q2 looks the bigger improvement a bogus Q3 will look.
kennywinker 14 hours ago|||
Wish i had your optimism.
HarHarVeryFunny 15 hours ago||
These jobs lost/gained and unemployment statistics, especially on a monthly basis, and when the numbers are so small, are just noise. Seasonal adjustments alone (baseline assumptions on how many people should be employed) make them meaningless, as does the government definition of being unemployed or looking for work.

As far as the government is concerned if you have been looking for a job for so long and/or are so discouraged that you stop looking, then you are no longer "unemployed" since you are not looking for a job.

If you are software engineer who has not been able find a software job, and are now flipping burgers to at least have some income, then you have also dropped off the government stats since you now have a job.

And then you have the current president's habit of just lying about everything, and threatening anyone who doesn't support his lies, and it seems we have truly entered a post-truth world where "alternate facts" rule the day.

When you read headlines of companies laying off thousands of employees, that's real. When the government says they've retroactively adjusted their seasonally adjusted fake news, then not so much.

GoofGarage 14 hours ago||
Indeed. Something to note is the labor force participation rate keeps dropping. We’re down to 61.4%. It was 61.5% in June 2026, 62.3% in June 2025.

We also have 4.8 million that are part-time employed, but want full-time work. That’s up from 4.7 million last month, and up from 4.5 million in June 2025, and up further from 4.2 million in June 2024.

There’s also 6.0 million that want a job, but aren’t employed. This is the same as June 2025, but up by 800,000 since June 2024.

So if you take the U-3 number (what’s reported) then factor in the other two figures, you really have 10.5% that are unemployed, discouraged, or underemployed.

—

The other question never answered is, “How many jobs are needed to create equilibrium?”, or where the employment rate remains stable. That’s NEVER talked about by media or the BLS, but it’s actually not difficult to get an approximate answer.

You’d want to look at population growth rates for 18-22 years ago (as those people would now be entering the workforce), multiply that by the labor force participation rate, and then divide as appropriate for the period. Typically, the US economy would need 140,000 - 145,000 new seasonally-adjusted jobs created every month to maintain a steady employment rate, given its historic and current population growth rates.

gruez 14 hours ago|||
>Indeed. Something to note is the labor force participation rate keeps dropping. We’re down to 61.4%. It was 61.5% in June 2026, 62.3% in June 2025.

Yes, it's called people getting older and retiring. It's pretty obvious that's the cause if you compare the labor force participation rate overall vs for 25-54 year olds.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

thehappypm 14 hours ago||
Also net population loss of working age adults via deportation and self deportation.
eightysixfour 13 hours ago|||
The Fed just had an article on the labor force participation rate drops: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-b...
SoftTalker 14 hours ago|||
> The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break

Are most teachers considered and counted as unemployed during summner break? All the teachers I know are paid 12 months a year. 10-month appointments are seen in colleges and universities but even there professors often have grants that pay for their research in the summer and even if not I don't think I'd consider them "unemployed" in the summer.

everforward 15 hours ago|||
I believe the BLS tracks all of these. I know they measure people who gave up on finding a job (they call them “discouraged workers” in stats normally).

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen underemployment charts too that seemed to track something like “people with degrees or certifications outside their field”.

They don’t normally make headlines, though. The charts and stats for those are clearly for economists and not formatted to make good headlines on the news.

gruez 15 hours ago|||
>As far as the government is concerned if you have been looking for a job for so long and/or are so discouraged that you stop looking, then you are no longer "unemployed" since you are not looking for a job.

> ...

>When you read headlines of companies laying off thousands of employees, that's real. When the government says they've retroactively adjusted their seasonally adjusted fake news, then not so much.

The BLS keeps track of the discouraged workers as well, and it's not significantly different than previous trends.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/alternative-...

>And then you have the current president's habit of just lying about everything, and threatening anyone who doesn't support his lies, and it seems we have truly entered a post-truth world where "alternate facts" rule the day.

You don't see the irony here with what you're doing?

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 13 hours ago|||
> You don't see the irony here with what you're doing?

Sorry, is OP the POTUS, speaking with Presidential authority and threatening federal employees with termination of employment for their political beliefs? The fact you think they're wrong is not a reason to equate their comment to Trump's actions.

gwerbin 15 hours ago|||
At this point it's fair to doubt just about any claim or number that comes out of the federal government. I'm sure there are still thousands of honest researchers and professionals at all levels of the executive branch, but over the past year so many of them have been pushed out and so many more have been under pressure to produce only politically-approved output, that the federal government is becoming increasingly unreliable as an institution.
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 14 hours ago||
> over the past year so many [federal employees] have been pushed out and so many more have been under pressure to produce only politically-approved output

This is the most obvious point in favor of this perspective, especially as it being an escalation by the current president and his administration. It hardly even seems to be a cynical take. At least, the cynicism is being used appropriately, as a tool to guide one's thoughts rather than being the entire argument.

One can look at the DOGE cuts, tally up the numbers, and see for themself that the stated reason (desired reduction of spending that is orders of magnitude higher than what they've actually cut) can't be the actual reason for these cuts. Coupled with the... less than candid statements from this administration about anything and everything the past 17 months (hey, has anyone heard about these "Epstein files"?), the most logical conclusion is that they are deceptive whenever it suits them. And yes, even the nominally-objective numbers need to come attached with a reason to be trusted; we already know a litany of ways they can be manipulated (meaning they are indeed "nominally" objective, and have been for a long time); they can't be reasonably taken at face value.

nprz 15 hours ago|||
And this is even after Trump fired the previous Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner for simply reporting poor jobs growth.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-seeks-to-fire-bu...

JKCalhoun 15 hours ago|||
"And then you have the current president's habit of just lying about everything…"

And I suspect, sometime in the future, we're going to discover that the numbers were even worse than we thought they were—were covered up.

ericmay 15 hours ago|||
Maybe, maybe not.

And when a vast majority of the population isn't working what do these numbers really tell us? If we have fewer jobs, but then the people doing those jobs are paid more and thus paying more in taxes, maybe the jobs numbers don't even matter (I'm not sure that's true, just for arguments sake).

And let's say they were covered up. Ok and what does that change? Are people who already hate Donald Trump going to vote harder and then, what? Pursue the same economic policy? Democrats are by and large aligned with his economic agenda.

mgkimsal 14 hours ago|||
> thus paying more in taxes

If the taxes were being spent to help those who were not working (unable to or for whatever reason) maybe that would be fine. We might take in more taxes, but when we cut funding for childhood cancer research, and build more missiles... is this really the way we want our money spent?

> Democrats are by and large aligned with his economic agenda.

Perhaps there was more overlap 10 years ago, but... that "both sides are just as bad" doesn't seem to ring true.

ericmay 13 hours ago||
> We might take in more taxes, but when we cut funding for childhood cancer research, and build more missiles... is this really the way we want our money spent?

Well we all have our opinions on how our money is spent. I for one think we need a lot more missiles and a lot more folks working instead of living off of taxpayer dollars (labor participation rate is the lowest ever), broadly speaking. But we don't really have to have an either-or scenario here and it's unfortunate that politics has gotten this bad in America.

> Perhaps there was more overlap 10 years ago, but... that "both sides are just as bad" doesn't seem to ring true.

Well, I'm not suggesting both sides are bad (though they are in their own ways - we should eject all communists and fascists from this country and planet).

I'm suggesting that Democrats agree with Donald Trump's economic policy even if some are politicking otherwise. If you look back to Trump's first term he began instituting tariff-like policies and other economic agenda items around restoring manufacturing capacity. Biden continued those policies, and then Trump has taken them a step further. Democrats today are campaigning on high inflation, but recall that inflation was also very high in 2022 and so forth, gas prices were even higher than during our support for Ukraine (I strongly support Ukraine), and so forth.

But if/when Democrats are elected it is unlikely they will roll back the Trump tariff scheme though perhaps negotiate more favorable deals with less bickering with our European friends and partners, and will maintain tariffs and other economic measures against countries such as China and perhaps others like Mexico and Canada.

amanaplanacanal 13 hours ago|||
Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs or the stupid Iran war. They wouldn't have passed anything like the BBB. Nor would they have tried to scare all the immigrants out of the country.
ericmay 13 hours ago||
> Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs

They may not have gone with that specific approach, but the direction was the same. Instead of tariffs the Biden Administration's BBB bill gave money to corporations instead. Two directionally aligned approaches there.

The rest of the comments (immigration policy or Iran) are irrelevant to this specific topic IMO

amanaplanacanal 9 hours ago|||
Directional alignment but completely different policy. Trying to claim they are the same is nonsense.
amanaplanacanal 12 hours ago|||
You don't think those two things have any effect on the economy?
ericmay 12 hours ago||
Sure they have an effect but are they economic policies? If you want to take the approach that everything is an economic policy I guess we could do that, but I think it's a bit limiting.

I guess also, what's the goal of economic policy? Does your economy matter much if you can't defend it, for example? If you have no industrial base does that matter?

Under sequential administrations all the way up and until at least the end of Mr. Obama's second term we had, broadly speaking, the same economic policy and we lost a lot of jobs under that regime, lost manufacturing capabilities, and more. People were really unhappy with that scheme which was supported by both Republican and Democratic administrations. Maybe we should examine our policies even if there are temporary changes that are unfavorable. Should we be long-term oriented or short-term oriented?

It's a very complicated topic of course, but I think just "grr mad at Trump" is not only immature but just wrong and leads to no meaningful analysis of what our economic policies have been, the results, and what changes may produce.

amanaplanacanal 9 hours ago||
Immigration is clearly economic policy. It was partially justified on immigrants taking American's jobs.

The war isn't strictly economic policy, but everybody could see it would have a bad effect on the economy, which is why everybody else was smart enough not to do it.

ericmay 8 hours ago||
> Immigration is clearly economic policy.

Sure but it's not strictly an economic policy. If you want to just talk about the economics of immigration I'd be happy to discuss that. I think there are pros and cons to many different approaches.

> The war isn't strictly economic policy, but everybody could see it would have a bad effect on the economy, which is why everybody else was smart enough not to do it.

Similarly Europe and the United States could have been economically smart and unsanctioned Russian gas and let them take over Ukraine. Sometimes economic policy is trumped by other considerations.

epolanski 15 hours ago|||
Job numbers have always been reviewed down after being released every single time since 2022.
mempko 14 hours ago||
So you are saying it's even worse than the numbers reported.
HarHarVeryFunny 10 hours ago||
I would assume so, but these numbers are so cooked that who knows!
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