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Posted by florianherrengt 3 hours ago

AI is removing the middle class of software engineering(blog.florianherrengt.com)
371 points | 309 comments
Syntaf 2 hours ago|
> bad engineers were always a liability

This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_.

I am still a firm believer in garbage in -> garbage out, AI is only as good as the abstractions and contracts you put in place for it. I don't subscribe to the idea that AI generated code is fundamentally bad, just that people lack the right skills today to wrangle agents into writing good code.

Earlier in the year I put together a talk for my company on what the future of architecture & design means for us in the career, I'm very proud of it and will share here in case folks have their own thoughts to share on the topic: https://youtu.be/SIZrt9Rt05Q?si=W57eirniWmoSFeBu

RSHEPP 2 hours ago||
This 100%. I just requested a hackathon for performance improvement (might be wasted effort).

We are pushing tons of code and now our CPU usage has grown exponentially over the past year because the bad engineers just ship whatever Claude gives them and do not think about the consequences.

Our biggest consumer of CPU right now is HTTP connection churn because engineers are creating new clients every request we handle. If the engineers would just think for a second, push back on Claude, even Claude would tell them this is bad. But they don't... Platform engineering is now 10x harder with terrible engineers and unlimited code machines.

Don't even get me started on ffmpeg usage, engineers act like the resources are unlimited.

notakio 32 minutes ago|||
When I worked at a particular fruit company in Cupertino, my boss had been asked repeatedly by the developer teams to provide a tour of the data center we'd recently finished building out, which housed the servers their code ran on.

He gave them a lengthy, grueling, hyper-detailed tour of the entire facility, encompassing the HVAC systems, electrical systems, network and computing systems, finishing with about 20 minutes where he had them stand inside a hot aisle that he was just outside of, giving a fantastic soliloquy on the importance of code efficiency, and the consequences of ignoring it. It was hilarious to watch from the comfort of the cold aisle, knowing full well what he was doing.

ryandrake 1 hour ago||||
Exactly. For most of my career, bad engineers (or juniors who were earnestly learning) would struggle to even create output that compiled, let alone ran. And it would take them a long time to implement something poorly. So the blast radius from their incompetence would be limited. Today, a bad engineer can churn out ten thousand lines of garbage that actually compiles and runs, before my first cup of coffee. If not on a tight leash, they'll sink the whole codebase or inundate every senior person with garbage code review requests. The blast radius is unlimited!
palmotea 1 hour ago|||
> Today, a bad engineer can churn out ten thousand lines of garbage that actually compiles and runs, before my first cup of coffee. If not on a tight leash, they'll sink the whole codebase or inundate every senior person with garbage code review requests. The blast radius is unlimited!

The term for that is "10x AI engineer." Anyone who has anything negative to say about such people is just jealous of their insane productivity and speed.

florianherrengt 11 minutes ago||
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budsniffer952 47 minutes ago|||
If your company has bad engineers cranking out 10,000 line PRs your engineering culture and product was already bad, I guarantee it.
RSHEPP 40 minutes ago||
It's not the whole culture and product, it's specific teams that do it. And trying to push back on teams that are "producing" is not a simple task.
butlike 14 minutes ago||||
A hackathon for performance improvement screams to me "you'll be re-interviewing for your own job." I don't foresee this going well for the company. Best case scenario: you wildfire churn all the chaff engineers which limits the company's throughput until they're rehired... with no expectation the new hires will be any better. You also lose A LOT of domain experience and are self-inflicting brain drain.

I'd try and push for some "lunch and learn" meeting where the engineers get lunch catered and in exchange sit in on a meeting where you explain your point of view. Without monetary incentive it'll be hard to change the culture, but not impossible (and food goes a long way in greasing the wheels).

wonnage 3 minutes ago||
they meant application performance
cube00 1 hour ago||||
> We are pushing tons of code and now our CPU usage has grown exponentially over the past year because the bad engineers just ship whatever Claude gives them and do not think about the consequences.

Sometimes this can be a death by a thousand cuts. Any individual change may not impact performance to a noticeable degree but when they're pumping out a 10x increase in commits it can be a slow decline.

Just look at how they're merging ~300 commits a week into bun.

https://github.com/oven-sh/bun/graphs/commit-activity

mirmor23 1 hour ago||||
If your company has sketchy process and minimal checks on the software quality, of course it naturally follows that they hire bad engineers as well. fortunately, that also opens up an opportunity to be a emergency leader with an eye towards promotion.
chasd00 16 minutes ago|||
> a emergency leader with an eye towards promotion

i've gone this route a few times in my career, it's very stressful and involves angry/panicked people and many all nighters. Also, the glory fades fast. would not recommend.

butlike 7 minutes ago||
Also you don't get the money. Why pay for a job already done
palmotea 1 hour ago||||
> If your company has sketchy process and minimal checks on the software quality, of course it naturally follows that they hire bad engineers as well. fortunately, that also opens up an opportunity to be a emergency leader with an eye towards promotion.

AI disease is encouraging "sketchy process and minimal checks on the software quality." QA has been eliminated from my team, and the QA engineers that are left have been declared to be developers now.

Gotta move fast, and I guess making sure the stuff we ship works was "slowing us down."

satisfice 19 minutes ago||
More like developers are now testers and nobody is doing QA.
pydry 1 hour ago||||
The bigger issue (I find) is that the pipeline for finding those engineers is completely fucked.

Hiring pipelines that tested the wrong thing have existed for years but the problem is magnified 10x when you test for something that weakly correlates with ability at best which an AI can do better than a human.

This is leading to stuff like incompetent junior-level engineers being hired as principals.

johnnyanmac 53 minutes ago|||
>be a emergency leader with an eye towards promotion..

You assume those people haven't already left, been kicked out, or were hired to begin with. We're not in a rational job market right now.

Shorel 1 hour ago||||
That really sounds like the kind of people who will complain in university about being forced to study calculus.

Natural consequence: Then they never grasped the concept of computational complexity.

O(n) Vs O(n²)? They have n, what's the difference? Python is fast enough. The only thing that matters is shipping features fast! Features! Our competitor will have this next week, we need to write code fast, everything else is a matter of adding more compute, which we will pay with revenue!

dr_dshiv 23 minutes ago|||
As a side note; There is plenty of useful math that many people need (or would benefit from) in the real world. Much math curricula is arguably poorly aligned to needs, as it emerged from various historical flukes of design-by-committee. Popular math curricula is not perfect by any means. I recommend looking at high school or college textbooks and considering whether it is well prioritized.
Shorel 8 minutes ago||
In principle I agree with you.

The missing part of mathematics education, IMO, would be to focus more into developing the intuition of what something means, instead of the current focus on getting some (numeric) results.

soperj 44 minutes ago|||
computational complexity was never part of calculus. Calculus is the math of continuous change.
Shorel 30 minutes ago||
I should add that text to the rant at my last paragraph!
whilenot-dev 1 hour ago||||
The handling of backpressure is such a good example to distinguish bad from good engineering. A good implementation even presents all the typical "clean" code indicators: DRY, KISS etc.
pengaru 28 minutes ago||||
Mind sharing where you're at?
noncoml 59 minutes ago||||
Sounds like bad management to me
jurgenburgen 16 minutes ago||
My company got rid of line management. I now report to a director with over 20 reports and barely any time for career development. Our performance reviews are AI generated and we’re losing engineers. The industry has gone completely insane.
soperj 42 minutes ago|||
This has less to do with bad engineers than bad policies and procedures. You don't performance test before shipping to prod? you get what you get.
butlike 19 minutes ago|||
Tell me how to paradigm shift careers and I'll get out of your hair and stop shipping uninspired features.

But, right now I'm paralyzed with fear in how to make a successful career switch without starting from literally "new grad level." I have wisdom, so it doesn't feel like I should have to start at the bottom rung again. Egotistically, I don't even mind, it's just the salary hit that would be the main issue.

Maybe it's not even a paradigm shift (though, I've always wanted to work on film productions). I've sort of lost the passion for being an IC, but how can I make a transition to management without any management experience? Should I just apply for a managerial role and in the cover letter state management is my intended path for growth?

swatcoder 59 minutes ago|||
> > bad engineers were always a liability

> With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization.

Yup, and that's going to be the comeuppance for a decade of aggresive overhiring.

There are so many "bad engineers" filling the ranks now that in many teams and divisions there's not even anyone left around who can recognize them as such.

This was already manifesting as a rapid decline in software quality and worsening practices, and the amplification effect of AI is mostly going to make everything worse for a while as we wait for all these declining projects to buckle under their weight.

If you are a good engineer, it's a good time to work on small teams with other good engineers and rigorous practices. You can be using AI to amplify what you do (and probably should), but you need to be rigorously considering your processes and guarding yourself from seduction by blind-leading-blind hype you see on social media or in iconference talks.

mannanj 17 seconds ago|||
Part of the problem is self confidence bias. Everyone things they're the good engineer, while dunning Krueger would say maybe you are the bad engineer.

Prove who's good and bad.

And you can't really, because there's always tradeoffs you're making as an engineer. The really self confident ones think their tradeoffs win, and maybe they do, though often they don't and are self aggrandizing and stroking their large egos.

cautiouscat 2 hours ago|||
I think this point gets lost on people. A frequent argument I see in favor of vibecoding is: “well there’s also bad engineers”. In other words, bad code is already being written, so who cares if the LLM is wrong sometimes?

The issue is that with no reins, the LLM is a fire hose of bad code compared to the garden hose of bad code orgs had before. A good engineer, with a good model and harness will produce great stuff. A bad engineer with a good model and harness will produce something faster, but it will be worse.

skydhash 37 minutes ago||
> A good engineer, with a good model and harness will produce great stuff. A bad engineer with a good model and harness will produce something faster, but it will be worse.

A good engineer, without LLM assistance, will still produce great stuff.

zinodaur 28 minutes ago||
Yes, but much more slowly. And if they realize halfway through implementation that there is a better way to do it, but they are under pressure to deliver, they wont have time to rewrite it and will live with the consequences of that decision forever
vogelke 17 minutes ago|||
This is right on the money. It's not that we have way more bad engineers than before; it's that the damage they do is out of all proportion to their numbers.
perrygeo 1 hour ago|||
Rather than good or bad engineers, I'd focus on the quality of the idea. Every software engineer has good and bad ideas. Historically, bad ideas were kept in check by the effort it would take to code the implementation. With that barrier nearly gone, there's no friction - a bad idea in the morning gets deployed to prod in the afternoon. No thinking required!

So yes, garbage in -> garbage out, but framed in a way that makes it clear what is garbage. The ideas, not the engineer themselves :-)

This suggests we need to be doing more designing and planning; introducing that friction intentionally to make sure bad ideas get culled, viable ideas get refined. Critical thinking becomes the bottleneck; the quality of the idea becomes the deciding factor in success.

jnpnj 1 hour ago|||
I've seen a subtler variant of that. Since 2025 winter model improvements, low quality developers can now commit somehow decent stuff more regularly, but as before, they still don't own the solution space independently. LLM output is now larger than what they can envision and cracks will simply happen further away, only to be discovered by someone else later. It's strange everything changes so nothing changes phenomenon.
hn_throwaway_99 2 hours ago|||
This is me to a tee. I think I'm a fairly good software engineer, and I loved building software and mentoring more junior engineers who I thought had both ability and a good attitude. I also think I was a pretty pragmatic engineer (I was not an "architecture astronaut"), but I did enjoy the craft of getting into the nitty gritty details of software.

The past 5-10 years or so saw me pretty beaten down though with software engineering, and AI was the final nail in the coffin that caused me to leave the profession in later middle age. I thought software as a business had "lost its way" from building great products with attention to detail to "how do we addict as many people as possible as quickly as possible". Think about the degradation in Apple software from say the "it just works" era to now.

With respect to AI, I'm not really against it, and I find it extremely valuable in my personal projects. I just feel in a large group/enterprise context that it's replaced a lot of tasks I actually enjoy doing with becoming an editor for what feels like a slightly inebriated junior developer. Or maybe it's better to say a junior developer on a mild amount of meth, because as you say this developer can churn out semi-but-not-fully-working code at an astonishing rate, and then I feel like it's often my job to mop the slop off the floor. Pass, not interested.

I feel lucky to have had my career during what I consider the golden age of software engineering, but I'd note I don't think that golden age lasted even a full career of one person.

MyHonestOpinon 7 minutes ago|||
I also consider myself a fairly good pragmatic software engineer. I have led small (3 engineers), medium (15), and large (100+) teams.

To me, the best time was late 90s, early 2000s. We had a lot of autonomy. People would just trusted that we knew what and how to build it. I could focus on building a great product. Overtime, we lost control, to the point that we now work based on jira tickets made by managers or product owners with one tenth of the experience that we have.

SoftTalker 1 hour ago|||
In retrospect, the golden age was the pre-internet era. Some rose-colored glasses maybe, but as I remember it:

Paying for software was the norm, so it was more clear what the "product" was, and software writers had a direct incentive to write better software.

Updates could not be pushed out so you had to be pretty sure your code worked before you shipped it. Having to ship physical media to all your customers with a bug fix was very expensive. Any new release was a big deal, so you had to put some real thought into what features it should contain.

Stack churn was much slower. The feeling of constantly trying to keep up with a treadmill was much less.

Users, while often not technology experts, were a much more competent slice of people than the general public who showed up when they got internet service and a computer at home.

The only ads were in print in trade magazines or publications like Computer Shopper. Yes, people actually used to buy a magazine that was nothing but ads.

saulpw 39 minutes ago||
You're right about those things, but you're forgetting that we had no source control, and almost all software was closed source. You took what you were given and you liked it, and you developed strong attachments to particular versions of software which you clung to well beyond its use-by date (like Python 2.7). MS-DOS 3.3 forever!
MyHonestOpinon 5 minutes ago|||
I started using SCCS in the late 80s, then RCS, then CSV, then subversion, and finally git.
skydhash 31 minutes ago|||
We had version control in the 70s with SCSS and then RCS. They were primitive, but a lot of software were only a few files.
saulpw 23 minutes ago||
In the 80s, source control was like networking. Yes some orgs had it (mostly academia) but the rest of us just had a precious floppy that we copied the known-good source onto.
torginus 1 hour ago|||
I think the parallels with AI art are uncanny - nowadays people with zero artistic skill, vision or effort invested are capable of creating stuff that would've previously taken a master artist a solid week of work - doesn't mean any of that is good, but it does mean that the logic of 'if it works and looks good, it's good' is completely broken now.
__turbobrew__ 1 hour ago|||
The analogy I have heard is that LLMs are a force multiplier, so if you were a 2x engineer before you are now a 10x engineer, and if you were a -2x engineer you are now a -10x engineer.
iwontberude 11 minutes ago||
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la6479 1 hour ago|||
But sooner or later for AI to reach its true potential we need to have HOTL ie Human Out of the Loop. Meta prompting or using AI to develop the prompt by coaxing it to ask relevant questions , creating specs and going through multiple loops with LLMs - things like this can be a good start towards the final goal. Final means the over abundance of goods and services like the men of the millenium are suggesting us mere mortals will reach one day,. .. and work will be optional.
bobthepanda 1 hour ago||
Alternatively, cutting out labor just results in mass poverty except for the moneyed few, and a new era of technofeudalism.

It seems pretty clear that the current crop of executives strongly prefer the latter scenario.

matchagaucho 53 minutes ago|||
"Okay. I'll create a loop and goal so it doesn't stop until it's checked that everything works."

This is where the quality magnification seems to be occurring.

Goal-driven loops can make good code great, or bad code worse.

CuriouslyC 2 hours ago|||
Ironically, AI mitigates bad developers quite a bit. The architecture/design is coming from above bad devs (in a functional org), and AI tends to write less sloppy code than bad devs, and test/validate it more rigorously.
mjr00 2 hours ago|||
I don't agree here. Yes Claude is great at following patterns, and for very standard tasks (e.g. "add this HTTP handler" which can copy existing patterns for database transaction management, session management, authentication, etc etc) it does great! The problem is that when you do something that doesn't quite fit int an existing pattern, Claude will optimize for solving the task at hand, producing code that doesn't use a sensible architecture. Doing things like checking user credentials or establishing a database connection deep in domain logic.

If you're a good dev, you can totally prompt Claude to not do this and correct itself, that's not an issue. The issue is that bad devs won't even notice this is happening in the first place.

kube-system 16 minutes ago||||
A bad developer with any current frontier model will happily produce syntactically correct code that is unreadable, in a spaghetti architecture, and write an elaborate test suite that tests all of the wrong things.
stackskipton 2 hours ago||||
Strong disagree. A lot of AI development still requires good engineers to keep tight leash on it so I'm seeing more bad developers create a feature until we need to iterate on said feature and we find AI did such a bad job that it becomes extremely difficult to do so.
whateveracct 2 hours ago||||
AI is very good at making the bad dev's PR look plausible and be green in CI. And thus, merged.
jayd16 1 hour ago||||
Less sloppy in that it's clean and consistent looking but much more sloppy in the AI good looking non-sense way.
mohamedkoubaa 2 hours ago||||
Jury is still out here
re-thc 2 hours ago|||
> AI tends to write less sloppy code than bad devs, and test/validate it more rigorously

I've often had it test and benchmark against the wrong things = no test.

It also writes over-engineered code. So yes sort, maybe.

dominotw 11 minutes ago|||
> The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_.

i think i fall into this bucket. our "leaders" and executives have told us they dont care about 'shipping good' . we are simply responding to incentives.

fennecfoxy 1 hour ago|||
I have found this to some degree (even though I work with amazing people day to day).

It's much easier for people to pump out absolute garbage, you know the kind of "just get it done fast" slop that management types cry out for. And then they wonder why everything end ups broken, not being maintained etc.

And I think the contrast between good and bad code output is much more impactful. Someone can pump out 10x the bad code they used to before, never test it never read through it just push push push baby. And then for good code, sure it's increased my output for slop tasks like repetitive unit tests, but a lot of TLC and review is required for good code and I'd say I've had maybe a 2-3x speed up on a lot of things. But not 10x; you only get that when you don't give a fuck.

cindyllm 1 hour ago||
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ThePhysicist 2 hours ago|||
Maybe those engineers that don't care about making their solution _good_ are actually the good engineers, have you ever thought about that??? There are exceptions where quality really matters but most software shops build CRUD web apps where it's not really a good characteristic to obsess over the cleanest and most elegant details, instead you need to get the stuff the customer wants done!

I for one tend to care less about the minutiae of solutions implemented by AI as long as it gets the job done, I do care about architecture and design decisions and correctness and I have ways to steer and verify these when working with LLMs but I couldn't care less about it writing "good" code. Bad engineers also produce better results with AI at least when they're working in established frameworks, AI doesn't really need a lot of high level architecture input when designing or building a web app with a common stack, so as long as you're not working on something that's completely novel I don't think it will make a strong difference.

Maybe designers think the same way about the AI generated web designs I have Claude Code do for me but to be honest I don't care, I just know that before this tool existed it would have taken me weeks or months to come up with a good design and I would have to rely on prefabricated UI libraries and stuff like that or pay a designer tens of thousands of USD to make one for me, now I can get a (for me and my customers) perfectly acceptable and professional design within a few hours. So maybe I'm also a bad designer that amplifies my bad design taste 10x in my company, but the fact is the stuff ships and makes money and the customer is happy! And I can tell you customers or users don't give a shit about how good your code is, they only care if the software works and does what they want!

Syntaf 1 hour ago|||
Totally agree with your framing here, but that is also what I fundamentally consider "good" code -- it's code that solves the problem that your customers/business needs without making it _harder_ to solve the next problem.

There are valid situations where the best code you can write is code you never look at and throw out the next month; there are equally valid situations where the best code is well thought through and reasoned abstractions for an area you expect to become core to the business in the near future.

Kinrany 1 hour ago||||
If you're writing CRUD, there's no excuse not to write it competently since you're not solving a new problem
jonnycoder 2 hours ago||||
This is a great point. I find myself in the middle, where I appreciate and look up to past coworkers who were way better than me at attention-to-detail, but I have a tendency to focus on delivering actual results quickly with maintainable and easy to read code. A lot of engineering teams go into their own world on adhering to best practices with no eye on inefficiencies in the process that causes days of delay because it makes them feel better. I definitely believe in shift-left (findings bugs early saves a lot more time than finding them in production). I believe in balancing fast delivery with quality/process.
blub 47 minutes ago|||
In my experience, those that can’t understand design in the small (code level) don’t understand it in the large (sw or systems architecture) either.

Doing the right thing for the customer is independent from good design and good code. It’s a problem of requirements and project management. This is an excuse some poor programmers use, that they can’t write good code, but at least they fulfilled the customer requirements :D

renegade-otter 1 hour ago|||
I think for senior devs, some of us are legitimately jaded, especially if have been facing the same or boring problems.

I am just tired of typing and looking up syntax for every line of code.

This, however, is a slippery slope, and one has to be mindful of falling into cognitive surrender.

j45 54 minutes ago|||
I'm not sure if it's replacing the middle class of software engineering, but I do feel it's generally true that the static approaches to middle class software engineering are evolving quicker than people are keeping up.

Hopefully when there's bad devs, there's a bit less making a mess where someone doesn't know better and as a result some amount of average or general best practices start happening.

This can be true not just for software development, but making a mess in anything, including a spreadsheet.

globalnode 28 minutes ago|||
seems a lot of comments below with disdain for "bad" coworkers. every industry has them, but if theyre objectively bad why not get rid of them? surely some periodic review would do that. how did they get hired in the first place? perhaps hiring managers are the "bad" employees.. or managers that let them go on not performing are "bad". or maybe your expectations arent aligned with reality? who knows? the worlds a complicated place.
_fat_santa 1 hour ago|||
My team is currently developing our 3rd product this year where 99% of the code is written by an agent. One thing I've definitely noticed is our problem solving hasn't stopped, it just moved up the stack to the "agent layer".

A big part of this is ensuring that a "bad" engineers can still write solid code and also investing in systems that make it easier for us to review code.

When it comes to writing code, we have this entire library of coding standards that we've moved from one project to another. It describes, sometimes in excruciating detail, exactly how we want our code structured, antipatterns, best practices, etc.

On the review side we have invested equally into skills that split up code into readable chunks, take screenshots of any UI changes for quick validation, and a whole battery of tests to ensure that we're not generating slop.

If you were to look at just our development process, you would conclude that we're very lazy engineers. We seldom write code by hand, we seldom ask for corrections and our reviews are more of a cursory look at the PR rather than a deep review.

But the real work is not in the "development layer", it's now in the "agent layer". Making sure the agent knows how to write solid code so we don't need to write code by hand, making sure it doesn't make dumb mistakes so we don't have to correct it, and structuring our review process in such a way where an engineer only has to take a cursory look at the code.

The key difference we noticed between the "old way" and the "new way" is the "new way" is way more scalable and we're able to move way faster than we ever could before.

OutOfHere 2 hours ago|||
What is A&D? Shouldn't it have been defined in your comment?
Syntaf 2 hours ago||
Fair point! I edited my comment, A&D -> Architecture & Design
OutOfHere 1 hour ago||
What about the video's title?
ok123456 1 hour ago||
To everyone complaining about "slop" and "+20000 PRs," what kind of systematic quality assurance, test plans, and tech debt reductions were you doing before the "LLMpocalypse?"

Were you only relying on the difficulty of producing "working" from replacement skill/rate "software engineers" and their level of disinterest being the only real circuit breaker?

apsurd 1 hour ago|||
Trust actually does work that way though, the implicit and collective fuzzy agreement of “having my name on it”. Of course that ambiguity needs enforced automated checks, but reputation and one’s own integrity is not for nothing.

Generative AI breaks that agreement. It took me over a year to realize my previous CTO actually didn’t care too much about the system design he shipped . And the expectation was actually to just throw it away, have AI reimplement “what wasn’t working”. Use AI to ship, AI to learn what shipped, and AI to fix what shipped.

I quit because of it. Hell is working on other people’s AI code.

ok123456 26 minutes ago||
At different times in recent history, you could have also said:

> Hell is working on other people's NoSQL code.

> Hell is working on other people's Python slop code.

> Hell is working on other people's enterprise Java code.

> Hell is working on other people's Windows Forms/GUI Builder code.

To quote Jean-Paul Sartre: Hell is other people.

jcranmer 1 hour ago||||
We had a dedicated QA team and an extensive test base... which we fired to reduce headcount, and we've trimmed back because we don't have the hardware resources to run those tests sufficiently expeditiously.
fsnovask 1 hour ago||||
Secondarily, the business itself is also driving the throughput increases by demanding more volume, but there is no accountability to them for asking for throughput at the expense of quality. They may also deny the engineering time to work on things that would stabilize quality that supports faster delivery because features earn money more directly than developing quality processes.

This isn't coming solely from engineers wanting to produce more stuff faster.

bcrosby95 1 hour ago|||
Quality assurance and test plans don't catch slop. They just test your code. It can't prove the absence of bugs.

In general, the way we still do it is: some basic static analysis finding anti-patterns, but the meat of it is, and always will be, code review. Except you can't review code at the pace AI generates it.

Where I work someone is still responsible for the output. We expect developers to examine the code the LLM produces before burdening someone else with it.

scronkfinkle 2 hours ago||
I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the way. This hand off is no longer necessary as that same senior can just kick off an agent and have it handle the implementation for them.

I've heard some refer to this as a "nature is healing" scenario for the industry where if you only signed up for a high paycheck and didn't care to think critically about any of the work you're doing then this will be painful because that previously manual process has been automated. The floor of what's necessary to be considered valuable has been raised.

sarchertech 2 hours ago||
>This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the way.

This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice.

What tends to happen is that the EMs and PMs look at who’s free and give that person the task. This means that sometimes you get a senior leading a simple project and sometimes you get a junior leading/designing a complex project (usually with help from a very minorly technical PM).

Then the senior/staff/principal (often on a different “special” team) gets pulled in at the last minute to rescue the project.

If your company is highly product driven, you’ll often find that the juniors end up leaving projects more often than not because they will tell the PM exactly what they want to hear.

jasode 1 hour ago|||
>This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice.

>What tends to happen is that the EMs and PMs look at who’s free and give that person the task.

The gp you replied to qualified it with "enterprise software" (LOB, CRUD, etc aka "cost center") so your observations where senior -vs- junior engineers being more fungible can be true.

However, in "engineering" type of software products (game engines, RDBMS engines, operating systems, etc) where the software is more often a "product" that's sold (aka profit center) ... there are definitely different layers of complexity where senior and junior engineers are not fungible at all.

One way to describe the differences of complexity and criticality in various parts of the source tree is the "core" parts vs the "leaf" parts. E.g. in a game engine or Linux kernel, the deep parts of the engine or os process scheduler where the tight loops are located are the "core" parts. They most likely would be worked on by the most senior people.

But the game engine may have some less complex code for handling text width on a menu for different foreign languages. Or the os needs a new menu option on the installer to ask for the users age. Those would be more "leaf" functionality in the source tree. A junior could get assigned to those parts with less risk. After a few years of experience, he might be trusted enough to work on the deep "core" logic without screwing things up in catastrophic ways for a million customers.

A product with several million lines of source code will invariably have both the "hard parts" and "easy parts" so the new hires and juniors will work on the easier stuff first.

There's also a spectrum of hard-to-easy in enterprise software but it's much more narrow than engineering code bases.

bluefirebrand 25 minutes ago||
> However, in "engineering" type of software products (game engines, RDBMS engines, operating systems, etc) where the software is more often a "product" that's sold (aka profit center) ... there are definitely different layers of complexity where senior and junior engineers are not fungible at all.

That's great and all, but that's a small minority of all software written. I'd love to work on projects like that but ultimately I have to pay the bills. Many software engineers are in the same boat I am.

Now I guess I'm just up shit creek because I built a career on SAAS work that was available instead of holding out hope I could get in at my dream job working on game engines or some other non-SAAS product?

Sorry if I sound bitter. I'm variations tired of hearing variations "If you only worked in SAAS you were always close to meaningless and now we've automated you so you don't deserve to earn anything anymore". Feels like every day.

SoftTalker 1 hour ago||||
Nor have I seen this "punch every hiccup into google" approach. Most errors are things that (a) you've seen before if you have any significant experience and (b) have a pretty obvious cause if you simply read the error message and look at your code.

Sure you might lean more on Google or SO if it's something you haven't seen before, or it's something deep in a stack that isn't code you actually wrote. But as the noob eventually learns when he thinks he's found a bug in a runtime or compiler that thousands of other people are using every day: No. It's probably your code.

I suppose there are people who never advanced beyond the "type (or copy/paste); run; google the errors" loop, but I've never seen anyone with more than a year or two of experience doing that very often.

skydhash 24 minutes ago||
I'm more likely to have several tabs of the libraries/language docs open than opening Google. And when I do, it would be just a faster way to get to the docs. After a while in a project, my history and bookmarks list is much more useful than a web engine. If it goes into months and years, it's mostly tweaking the code to solve some bugs, meaning a lot of reading of source code.
spamizbad 2 hours ago||||
Oh I'd say its real. Years ago I worked as that senior who divvied up the work to a team of 4 mid-level engineers in that exact fashion (they were mostly Latin American contractors with limited english). We actually shipped some good stuff too!

Unfortunately, looking back, I could easily see Claude replacing 3 out of 4 of those developers. Myself + one other dev + AI would probably would've shipped a bit more a little faster. With that said tokens aren't free so the net cost savings would've been 2 dev salaries maximum.

Aurornis 2 hours ago||||
> This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice.

I would have said the same thing for the first 15 years of my career across several jobs and acquisitions.

Then I took a job at a company that fit this description. They had so many managers and PMs that every task was talked about, broken down, and documented so much that every Jira ticket was a little piece of work that a junior could handle by Googling things.

The quirk was that they had started hiring a lot of experienced and staff level engineers, too, but then tried to force this same framework on to everyone. We spent more time discussing tasks than doing them by a factor of 2-50X. There are some situations where this is appropriate, but none of our work was actually high scale or difficult. Your day might be spent writing design docs and collective sign offs as you worked through committees until the tickets at the end were so simple that any junior could do them.

It didn’t lead to better software. It was one big cargo cult game of performative management. A frequent outcome was that someone would get into the micromanaged tickets and realize there was a better way to handle something, but it wasn’t worth doing all of the fighting and meetings involved to do the meeting and Jira ticket dance all over again.

fsnovask 1 hour ago||||
>This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice.

Same but with 10 years, and I don't think I would do well in a place like that. That removes you from writing code and there is a similar complaint about relying too much on AI and not writing enough code on your own.

dkarl 1 hour ago||||
> If your company is highly product driven, you’ll often find that the juniors end up lea[d]ing projects more often than not because they will tell the PM exactly what they want to hear

I worked in a company where this happened, and it wasn't pretty. Product managers used their experience and seniority to intimidate junior engineers and exert control over project management of engineering projects, which they predictably used to move as much work as possible to post-launch, including testing and security. They also gaslit junior engineers into agreeing that issues with contradictory or impossible product asks could be figured out later, leading to software getting released to customers that fundamentally could not be made reliable, performant, or even secure.

Even after the entire company went on site visits where customers told us they weren't using any of the features released in the last year because they were all buggy, and the only information they wanted about upcoming releases was assurance that their use cases wouldn't be impacted, product still kept claiming that the time it took to release new features was the biggest problem facing the company and kept fighting back against engineers who said we were in a quality crisis and desperately needed to make time for better testing and design.

The only thing that can shield you is good engineering management. Weak management will end up getting rolled by product and start promoting the bad behavior that product insists on. At that company I had a boss whose attitude towards us was "engineers in a startup should make decisions independently and stand by their work" but made sure engineers felt unsafe making engineering decisions that product wasn't happy with, likely because they felt unsafe themselves.

AppleBananaPie 2 hours ago||||
I've never thought about it this way before but this definitely mirrors my experience
re-thc 2 hours ago||||
> but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice

I've seen a twist - not juniors but just offshore engineers.

_doctor_love 2 hours ago|||
> I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years

Primarily in Silicon Valley or outside of it?

I worked most of my two decades in the Valley but also spent time outside of it. There is in many cases a vast gulf between the dev cultures. What the parent comment is describing I've seen many many times.

DaveParkCity 1 hour ago|||
While the picture painted here is viceral... I think the reality is closer to this..

Before AI, most big software was desgined and originally writen by a few key (founder-esq) architects. But they can only add functionality at human speed, so the team grows, and the quality of engineer drops as the functionality footprint grows. Eventually the functionality is much bigger, but most of it was written by a much lower quality engineer, and thus the code (even if functionally correct) is less efficient and less clean, and the big refactors a talented architect would have done never happened, so it just got bigger and bigger and more unweildy and bug prone and inflexible - until some new talented architects see the waste and build a startup to displace it.

With AI, big software can be entirely written by 1-3 people, plus alot of agent usage. Which means it can be refactored more, and the design kept cleaner. But this only happens if those senior architects are actually paying attention and controlling the design. If the agents are heavily automated and subtasaking and controlling the design, then nothing much changed, because the agents themselves are no better than the "stackoverflow engineer".

doctorwho42 2 hours ago|||
Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs...

So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

florianherrengt 2 hours ago|||
I think that’s a completely different problem.

I’ve worked with two junior devs recently who are very good precisely because they’re trying to understand what they’re doing, rather than just producing code.

I’ve also worked with senior devs who basically gave up and stopped trying to understand the code. They became much worse engineers as a result. At this point I would much rather work with those 2 juniors.

They use it to explore things they don’t understand, ask me questions to clarify their reasoning, double-check assumptions. They generally use the tools available to increase their understanding.

mkozlows 2 hours ago||||
It's true that developing junior devs is challenging (but it always was), but that's not what this is about: This is about the kind of not-that-good, mid-ass programmers who make up the silent bulk of the industry. The ones who have 20 years of experience, but who you still wouldn't trust to write fizzbuzz.

Those people are doomed. Which is fine in a lot of ways, but will be devastating for their economic prospects.

rayiner 1 hour ago||||
Yeah. Technology and social change has done this all over the economy. E.g. from my dad's field, there's not enough public health people with field experience to replace the folks who are retiring. We have plenty of entry level people who can't get a job, but then there's a gaping hole in the pipeline between them and the graybeards who are retiring.
gfody 2 hours ago||||
by then we'll have an mfc, instead of trying to get llms to write code our prompts will compile and execute efficiently. after that inversion "programming" becomes "using language to describe some processing" it's just writing. knowing a computer language of old helps but not necessarily
ddj231 1 hour ago||||
also who knows if prolonged ai development for years actually doesn't atrophy your coding muscles so to speak such that you are fully reliant on ai programming to get things done
Aurornis 2 hours ago||||
> Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so....

I’m convinced the only reason there’s a Fortran crisis is because nobody wants to work on Fortran or make a career out of it.

Has nothing to do with willingness to hire juniors. Good luck finding promising juniors who survey their career opportunities and decide that Fortran is a good technology for building their resume.

SoftTalker 44 minutes ago||
Pay them and they will. The problem with many people bemoaning the lack of Fortran and COBOL developers is that they are not willing to admit that the code they "need" to maintain isn't actually valuable enough to be worth paying what that maintenance costs.

It's like complaining that no mechanics work on carburetors anymore. Well some do, but they are expensive and not worth it to keep your old hoopty running. Might be worth it if you have a show-quality 1960's era muscle car.

davidw 1 hour ago||||
It also ignores the effects of having a critical tool in the software pipeline controlled by a large corporation. That is an absolute sea change from the years when you could (and some of us did) run most of our software development on open tools.

Think about all the open source the world got from some random person in Finland or Sicily or wherever hacking on a cool idea. Will that still happen with a high (for someone who is not employed... maybe a student) monthly cost?

AnimalMuppet 2 hours ago||||
I think that smart companies (don't laugh, a few exist) will still hire juniors. Fewer, more carefully selected, but still some.
applfanboysbgon 2 hours ago|||
The StackOverflow devs being replaced were never going to become real senior developers no matter how much time was given to them. There is an entire cohort of people who were told to go to college for programming because it was an easy way to make good money, who did what they were told while having zero interest in it and never touching a line of code outside of work/school hours. Those people were never going to understand actual programming, all they were doing was copy-pasting code for a paycheck. Does it suck for them that they're being replaced by automated copypasting bots, yep. But frankly speaking nobody should've ever been paid 6-figure salaries to copy paste snippets from SO and jam JS library legos together in the first place.
a34729t 1 hour ago||
They'll become managers and PMs and TPMs instead.
SpacePortKnight 2 hours ago|||
I have been a software engineer for 8 years and not once I have had a jira ticket handed over to me by a senior engineer.

I have worked in startups before and currently work at bkng, and have friends at uber. Everywhere it is expected that the engineers will create their own tickets and refine them with the team. If you are in a product facing team, your PM could even help you with a PRD but I have not seen one in the last few years.

SoftTalker 35 minutes ago|||
By contrast I have not worked anywhere that engineers originated tickets. And thankfully, only one place that used Jira (but the engineers didn't interact with it).

Tickets came from the product side, after being evaluated and prioritized. Engineers got involved with estimating effort (in "points") and doing the actual implementation of course.

tayo42 1 hour ago||||
My last job was like that, it was miserable having no agency. The whole team was from fang companies and were all ok with the tell me what to do dynamic.
shimman 1 hour ago|||
Do you think it's acceptable to do the work of multiple full time positions? I can't imagine it's very sustainable, nor healthy for you (both body and soul).
StableAlkyne 1 hour ago|||
> This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code

I wish this were the extent of it nowadays. But for whatever reason, I've seen multiple really promising engineers get a hold of AI tools, and just outsource all of their thinking to it.

The self-infantalization is so bad that I was pair programming with a guy one day (partly to see how he was using AI) and watched him ask Claude if it makes sense to do X for every single decision.

I get using it as a form of linting... But you'll never learn how to be an independent developer if you constantly outsource your decision making. And it's disappointing too, because he was developing so rapidly as an engineer before Copilot came out.

wetoastfood 2 hours ago|||
I agree the time it takes to go from planning to deployed is condensing. I'm not sure the hand off is no longer necessary (though it admittedly often feels like it). Perhaps it means we need better ways of planning and collaborating faster and on larger features? So you still end up with a hand off, but it looks different, is maybe more detailed, or spans a wider implementation than we previously might?
a2ff6eeb0 2 hours ago|||
I think AI is getting pretty good at generating the tickets as well. Not amazing, but it feels like ticket generation today is where code generation was a year ago.

I wonder if there's an agent harness that would work well for requirements gathering.

coffeebeqn 1 hour ago||
Not really in my experience. I’d much rather have just the prompt rather than the seven paragraph slop
a2ff6eeb0 9 minutes ago||
That assumes you're the one that's implementing it. If the agents get good enough at figuring out specs, I'd expect you could just pass it along to the next agent for implementation -- vibe coding today, vibe speccing tomorrow.
JeremyNT 1 hour ago|||
> I've heard some refer to this as a "nature is healing" scenario for the industry where if you only signed up for a high paycheck and didn't care to think critically about any of the work you're doing then this will be painful because that previously manual process has been automated. The floor of what's necessary to be considered valuable has been raised.

I feel like this is a bit of cope.

Right now you still need to have some skill to guide these things correctly to produce cohesive and functional products, but at the rate we've seen them improve I question how long this will remain true.

dominotw 2 hours ago|||
what is so 'hard thinking' about building a crud app
florianherrengt 1 hour ago||
Nobody is getting paid significant money just to build a simple CRUD app. Even before AI. Companies pay experienced engineers because the supposedly simple CRUD sits inside a messy real system with years of business rules, constraints, integrations and bad decisions have consequences.
graemep 1 hour ago||
The complexity I have seen in supposedly simple CRUD apps is amazing, especially what some less experienced people do.
throwayay4929 2 hours ago||
... And Django and React removed ("stole the jobs from under") the engineers handcrafting html and jQuery web pages/apps.
jameshart 2 hours ago||
Django? Django is older than jQuery…
eshack94 1 hour ago||
This blog post illustrates the importance of NEVER outsourcing your critical thinking or outsourcing decision-making to an LLM. And to never take shortcuts with learning. Learning is hard, but learning things properly allows you to understand what is happening and allows you to ask the right questions about whether the changes an agent wants to make are the changes that will best serve the goals of the project (without creating an unwieldy level of tech debt in the future).

Personally speaking (and I'd love to hear others' takes on this): when using an LLM for work-related and development tasks, I never use the "full-auto" mode, and I never manually approve of something that I don't understand. When I don't understand something an agent wants to do, I go on a side-quest to learn more about said thing and to educate myself first. This takes extra time, but I feel that it's the right thing to do, so I can at least approve/deny/redirect from a more informed position, rather than flying blind and hoping for the best.

In addition to what the author discusses, I think skill-atrophy, stagnation due to complacency (i.e.: "why grow and learn if an agent can do it" mindset), and cognitive laziness are additional risks that come with overrelying on LLMs. Humans were meant to think. LLMs are a tool.

bluefirebrand 32 minutes ago|
> In addition to what the author discusses, I think skill-atrophy, stagnation due to complacency (i.e.: "why grow and learn if an agent can do it" mindset), and cognitive laziness are additional risks that come with overrelying on LLMs. Humans were meant to think. LLMs are a tool.

I know it's a cliche but the old IBM adage holds very true today

Machines should work, people should think

Maybe that's part of the problem I have with LLMs writing code. It would be nice if they just did the work, but there's a lot of underlying thinking and decision making with software work that is being offloaded any time you have the LLM do it

It seems like those decisions are being handwaved off as "not important" nowadays. Just let the LLM make those choices! But that is not sitting right with me for whatever reason. Something I should think about I guess

win311fwg 13 minutes ago||
The decisions are important, but the understanding is that you define them as constraints. Which is what a segment of the software community, the upper class if you will, has always believed you should do, even before LLMs were a thing. The LLM simply becomes a constraint solver: machines do the work, people do the thinking.

This is the challenge of the middle class developer. They aren't accustomed to working with constraint thinking and they're past the junior stage where one is expected to still be shaping their thinking so they are struggling to find a fit.

markstos 2 minutes ago||
Perhaps more broadly AI will hollow out "middle intelligence".

We could end up with a gulf between those who use AI for cognitive inquiry vs passive delegation. Those who accelerate learning by asking "help me understand this" vs those who relinquish understanding and analytical thinking to AI to complete their work.

xvilka 7 minutes ago||
Now the question is - no one was born good or best engineer/programmer/scientist. Often it was a long path of sleepless nights, daily grinding, failing million times, doing dumb mistakes along the way, the usual package of suffering sometimes called "experience". What is the path now for the next generation of good or best engineers? There will be no opportunities/budget to do the same anymore.
declan_roberts 2 hours ago||
Between AI and competing against the world with H-1B, it's really never been harder to get an entry or mid-level software engineering job.

Which means our pipeline to senior engineer is completely broken.

mikert89 2 hours ago||
I think the field is basically over as a long term career unless you are truly exceptional. It will become very easy to build most software, and the upper end will be filled with the top people in the country/from abroad.

Wages are certainly going down for most software roles

ryandrake 1 hour ago|||
> It will become very easy to build most software

We keep hearing this, but where is the Photoshop killer written by a gas station attendant? Where is the PayPal alternative written by a retired nurse?

Over and over we're told that software is now trivial to write, and Claude is evidently writing some billions of lines of code a day, but where are the results? Where is the vibe coded app toppling the legacy hand-coded monster product from 20 years ago?

threatofrain 1 hour ago|||
Why ask such extreme stuff? Why not ask about the solo entrepreneur who creates a convincing iOS app without a programming background? Advantage the problem on the side of ML and look for winning scenarios today.
mrbombastic 39 minutes ago||
because this comment is responding to: "I think the field is basically over as a long term career unless you are truly exceptional. It will become very easy to build most software"

photoshop, paypal, and many more companies etc. have software of vast complexity that cannot be reproduced or maintained today solely with llms, ipso facto you still need software developers or some similar role to build and maintain the complexity of _yesterday_

some guy shipping an iOS app to zero users doesn't change that. although i think it is good we can have more bespoke software.

mikert89 29 minutes ago||
You aren’t getting it. They can pay their engineers half what they used to, you don’t need the same level of skill to build photoshop. Yes, you need a bunch of engineers, but they will be driving coding agents, not writing code by hand. They can be hired and fired for cheap
mikert89 1 hour ago||||
the future is already here, its just not evenly distributed
ex-aws-dude 1 hour ago||||
Every time I see people say this I think: show me the money?

If its so good why aren't you rich?

SoftTalker 29 minutes ago||
Why would anyone get rich doing something easy?
mrbombastic 1 minute ago||
Because the companies everyone claims are now obsolete are making a lot of money still doing the supposedly obsolete things?
deaton 43 minutes ago||||
See this is the big issue I've been seeing. The only vibe coded product I can think of off the top of my head that's succeeding at all is Bun, and maybe I'm behind the times but it feels like Bun's success is mostly being pushed by Anthropic; I've yet to see much other than Claude Code use it.
pydry 1 hour ago|||
In the "iceberg" of boring company systems I see working day to day I actually think delivery of production software has been slowed down. The cost of "writing" code went down a bit, while validation costs positively exploded.

There are definitely more apps developed these days but I haven't seen anything much vibe coded which actually seems to have staying power. Everything is prototype quality.

deaton 42 minutes ago||
Now you can make a prototype without understanding what's going on internally or why the prototype wasn't good enough!
weatherlite 2 hours ago||||
All fields are basically over as a long term career besides perhaps prostitutes and even there I'm not entirely sure. But the questions of how soon and by how much matter a lot. Being early is the same as being wrong a clever guy once said.
mikert89 2 hours ago||
no programming is verifiable, and the major LLM companies are focused on it. its the first domino to fall by probably 5+ years
weatherlite 1 hour ago|||
Is it really that simple ? A programming function that has set inputs and determinstic outputs is rather verifyable. A ten million lines code base is not easily verifyable. Knowing whether an agent is improving when it's working on a huge codebase is not that easy - it could easily start hurting code quality without it being clear in any output.
nanapipirara 2 hours ago||||
I think this is true.

A lot of AI believers (me too fwiw) seem to forget it’s a lot harder to ‘close the loop’ on non-code projects. I think this is because they are usually coders.

owebmaster 1 hour ago||
That's what all AI believers get it wrong about programming. Code doesn't create products, humans do.
IsTom 1 hour ago||||
If you believe that I've got a halting problem oracle to sell to you.
palmotea 1 hour ago|||
> no programming is verifiable, and the major LLM companies are focused on it. its the first domino to fall by probably 5+ years

Which is kinda proof they're populated by sociopaths with extremely little empathy. The people who are building that stuff are programmers, and if they had a bit of functioning empathy they'd stop or slow down or at least be unenthusiastic.

And we're not talking about very high level empathy here, but the very basic kind of thinking about the effects on someone like yourself.

esafak 2 hours ago|||
Only if you run out of things to write. Is your back log ever empty?
ryandvm 1 hour ago|||
My backlog is less empty than ever - it just happens to be overflowing with whispy Claude-written tickets for functionality that somebody else's Claude suggested after summarizing some other Claude-infused Slack chat.
mikert89 2 hours ago||||
ofcourse not, but they can pay someone 80k a year to work on the backlog, whereas maybe they used to pay 175k. its not about work going down, its the skill set needed to complete the work is lower than ever, and they need less people than ever
reactordev 2 hours ago||
they won't even need that as agents talk to their own lanes in some Linear project management workflow that your sales team agents are connected. The entire system is going to end up agentic and even the CEO will be out of work unless they are founders and owners of the company. We'll all have our own business this way. Or it all collapses. Time will tell.
mikert89 2 hours ago|||
i think this is farther off, much sooner is just the subjugation of technical workers to be low skill drivers of LLMs
mrbombastic 2 hours ago|||
color me skeptical that the CEO or anyone non-technical is ever going to prompt their way out of a major incident when all the AI chickens come home to roost.
Tangurena2 2 hours ago||||
Maintenance will be forever. Tax laws change annually, so the payroll app will never stop being updated.
falcor84 2 hours ago||
I don't accept that argument. As I see it, laws should be structured as data rather than code, using a clean non-Turing-Complete DSL for any embedded logic and calculations. Maybe there would still be occasional situations when new software features are needed, but it should be a rare occurrence rather than on every new change.
ok123456 1 hour ago||
People just need to add/subtract an input box and update the tax rates. They don't need an ontology of taxes and goods.
nwatson 1 hour ago||||
I'm hopeful that software will be applied in new areas where it was too costly before, with AI help it will be possible. Software will be cheaper, even more prevalent, lower quality in since respects, but SW engineering will still be a viable career.
skinfaxi 2 hours ago||||
No one said there won't be work to be done, just that fewer people will be doing it.
esafak 2 hours ago||
If the work to be done is infinite, why would there necessarily be fewer people doing it?
pjmlp 1 hour ago||
Because most companies aren't software driven, they sell physical products and software is a cost center.

There is a budget and when it is gone, no contractors until next budget round.

Manfrednotfunny 2 hours ago||||
In a few years, it just might.

If maintenance and security is fully automated and for small changes or a small feature you will only dump some spec document into your agent platform, for sure.

mjr00 2 hours ago|||
> In a few years, it just might.

If you're in a product company and your development backlog is empty, run. That company is about to go out of business.

edukite 2 hours ago|||
Just another 6 months bro, only another funding bro, I promise, all devs will be replaced bro

I have stupid question here. Why they sell tokens instead of AI generated full application and AI fixes to your code without you needing a single dev?

pjmlp 1 hour ago|||
Because selling shovels is more profitable than digging holes themselves.
Applejinx 1 hour ago|||
Wait.
pjmlp 1 hour ago|||
Yes, when the project budget runs out and contractor team has to leave.
dauertewigkeit 2 hours ago|||
For some reason people never mention this, but aren't there also much more people graduating with CS degrees than ever before?
WarmWash 2 hours ago|||
Pretty much no other engineering field made sense to go into for about a decade. Even kids who did go EE, Mech E, or even Chem E ended up taking software jobs. The pay, benefits, and work/life balance of SWE just absolutely obliterates everything else. Or did at least
no_input 22 minutes ago||
Exactly this. Went into physics but the academic landscape is hell so shipped off to SWE.
doctorwho42 2 hours ago||||
And how do you think people go from fresh graduates to senior devs?
whateveracct 2 hours ago|||
Degrees take 4 years. It's a very laggy indicator.
francisofascii 55 minutes ago|||
Right. CS Enrollments dropped 8% this year. High schoolers got the message.
AnimalMuppet 2 hours ago|||
People can switch majors.

But despite me saying that, I think it's going to take longer than four years. It takes a while for people to realize that a dream is dead.

nwatson 1 hour ago||
Some companies hire junior devs to adopt AI-first practices to then drag their seniors in the same direction.
pydry 1 hour ago|||
This is a reliable recipe for turning your systems into an absolute clusterfuck.
whateveracct 1 hour ago||
should be a fun decade :)
AnimalMuppet 1 hour ago|||
Juniors to push the accelerator, seniors to pump the brakes. It could work.
bryzaguy 2 hours ago|||
What if the new entry level is what we consider senior today? Isn't it possible today to obtain entry/mid level skills with LLMs? I wonder if things will shift more in that direction.
iLoveOncall 2 hours ago|||
There are 100K H1-Bs a year and 4 million grads a year in the US. Anyone who thinks H1-Bs are actually contributing to their inability to find a job is a moron.
weatherlite 2 hours ago|||
But those H1Bs all come for a very narrow set of work - mostly software development or other adjacent roles. So your 4 million figure that counts all graduates in all fields doesn't make sense when we talk about tech.

There are around 100k U.S CS graduates . You're telling me 100k H1-Bs don't make any impact on them?

iLoveOncall 1 hour ago||
You're counting only CS bachelors, in reality there's 400K graduates a year in software engineering fields.

There's also only 60,000 H1-Bs a year for private companies.

Lastly the majority of H1-Bs doesn't go to software engineering jobs, it's around 30-50%.

There's also basically no US company hiring juniors via H1-Bs, so yeah, I'm saying it doesn't make any meaningful impact.

30K H1-Bs versus 400K grads...

BeetleB 2 minutes ago|||
> There's also only 60,000 H1-Bs a year for private companies.

Actually, more like over 80,000. They have a separate pool for people with advanced degrees (MS or higher) in tech fields.

Agree with everything else.

weatherlite 1 hour ago|||
The way you handled those numbers makes me think you have leadership potential, perhaps even U.S presidency material
KetoManx64 1 hour ago||||
-85,000 NEW visas granted each year, not including renewals - The mass majority of those are going into the tech/software - there are only around ~100k CS graduates each year - H1B workers will take much lower salaries and benefits than their US citizen counterparts.
mikert89 2 hours ago||||
have you been inside a big tech company? there arent many american fresh grads working there, its mostly foreign
iLoveOncall 2 hours ago||
[flagged]
fl4regun 2 hours ago|||
IME many big companies are filled with mediocre morons, or at least people who just don't care enough to do better than mediocre. Still not the fault of brown people either way.
shimman 2 hours ago||
Why are you bringing racism into the equation?

It's not an unreasonable thing for people of a country to think that the government should do more to protect their livelihoods over a corporation's balance sheet.

fl4regun 1 hour ago||
perhaps if you read the comment chain you would realize I'm not the one who introduced this into the conversation. Sorry that you disagree with my position.
shimman 1 hour ago||
wow I did not read this thread fully, my bad.
throw-the-towel 2 hours ago||||
Can't help but laugh that even Amazon has someone who defends its honour.
mikert89 2 hours ago||
hahaha i was laughing too, of all companies for someone to defend
ryandrake 1 hour ago||
Every $1B+ company out there has at least one person on HN eager to passionately praise and defend it online. I've never understood it. People get devoted to a company like it's their religion.
WarmWash 2 hours ago||||
>The reason you're not getting a job at Amazon isn't because of brown people,

The correct framing is "The reason you're not getting a job at Amazon isn't because of people willing to work for less money,"

iLoveOncall 2 hours ago|||
The compensation bands and the actual compensation are exactly the same regardless of immigration status.
snovymgodym 1 hour ago||
Bands yes, packets no.

Big tech companies aren't like a Government job with rigorous pay grades based on role and seniority. You can have people even within the same role and level at big tech with multiple $100k pay discrepancies.

If someone's continued ability to stay in the country where they currently live is contingent on employment then they will accept worse conditions and pay.

That's the entire reason why tech companies use H1B, it's not as though there's a dearth of Java developers or DevOps people who are US citizens.

mikert89 2 hours ago||||
amazon is crammed full of indians, its one of the worst offenders. i spent 5 years at the company

also nothing impressive about a senior SDE there, maybe 10 years ago it was impressive, best talent has either moved on or is L7+

weatherlite 2 hours ago|||
What's wrong with being mediocre?
insane_dreamer 2 hours ago|||
Spend some time processing tech job applications and you’ll realize you’re wrong
davidw 2 hours ago||
People have been fretting about 'foreigners' taking their jobs for decades and it never really happened. This is all about LLM's.

I mean, think about it; just a few short years ago there was a very strong market for software engineers, despite outsourcing and immigration being very much part of the landscape.

mikert89 2 hours ago|||
have you been inside any big tech company? lots of orgs are > 80% foreign.
a34729t 1 hour ago|||
Yeah my new VP is from a certain country in the eastern hemisphere, and the interviews I've conducted for US-based candidates oddly enough have been 100% of engineers from that same country (say 30 or so in the last 2 years).
davidw 2 hours ago|||
That's not actually true; people have been complaining about this for decades, and it's never been the zero-sum game that they claim it is.

I mean, I wrote this 12 years ago in response to similar discussions on this same site, and in the intervening years, we had a great market for software engineers: https://journal.dedasys.com/2014/12/29/people-places-and-job...

What has changed is 1) the zero interest rate environment went away and 2) LLM's.

mikert89 2 hours ago||
ive worked at multiple FAANG, almost always been the only american on a team of 10. theres some huge push by corporations to deny it to justify shipping in more foreign labor.
swozey 3 minutes ago||
You had a reply guy calling you mediocre for not working at Amazon. Amazon must be their first SWE gig because they clearly don't have the thousands of connections that someone in big tech SWE work has where 99% of their contacts wouldn't work for Amazon and have never applied there, and never would.

I felt like a greybeard walking around google at 32. That's all I'll say. And that was a decade ago. I don't want to work for any of these companies anymore. They've all gone downhill.

chaps 2 hours ago||||
Orrrrrr... it could be a complex combination of outsourcing, an over-reliance on degrees, LLMs, a lack of "apprenticeship" mentoring, etc etc etc.

I was very fortunate to get a job in a NOC a little bit after high school where I learned things one'd expect to learn in an entry level job. The team I worked on was all about mentorship, learning, and building people to the next level.

Haven't seen that attitude elsewhere in my entire career except in the non-profit world where I reside these days. It blows me away that people are surprised that these industries have failed to build entry level positions.

mattkrause 2 hours ago|||
I'd also throw in hiring practice. Whatever we're doing (across the board) to find candidates seems....less ideal.
davidw 1 hour ago|||
> outsourcing, an over-reliance on degrees, LLMs, a lack of "apprenticeship" mentoring,

Which of those things changed (along with higher interest rates) in the past few years though? All the other variables did not change. They were present 5 years ago and present 10 years ago too. To me that's indicative that those factors are not the cause of a soft market for software engineers in 2026.

chaps 8 minutes ago||
Are you seriously suggesting that ten years of a systemic failure to mentor the new generation hasn't had an impact on the culture of mentorship?
davidw 45 seconds ago||
Are you saying that precise thing changed 10 years ago and hasn't always kind of been with us?

I am talking about the weak market for software engineers right now and what caused it.

nsxwolf 2 hours ago|||
My job was just taken by Cognizant, which is technically American, so I guess you're technically right!
aabdi 2 hours ago||
> You were never expected to understand every service and every database. But at least someone did and would explain it to you.

I agree with most of this except this. Think there’s some rose tinted glasses here or I’ve got bad luck over time.

Life before ai was bad as well. There wasn’t any one to explain to you anything! You had to figure it out yourself. The people either already left or was busy with something else.

No one wrote tests (to my standard). Most of the ops works was skipped. Docs were just not there. Nobody linted properly. Just bad mannnn

Kuraj 35 seconds ago||
If there is any positive to be had from this, it's that we finally started documenting the codebases for AI as we should have always done it for other teammates.
uncivilized 46 minutes ago||
It’s just the typical BS where a Hacker News wants to feel smarter than they are
whywhywhywhy 3 hours ago||
>AI makes projects with weak engineering culture fail much faster.

>There used to be a time when people sat down and talked about how they'd do something. Now they can just prompt an agent for a few hours and open a PR.

>The most tragic aspect of this way of working is that, to the untrained eye, it works.

>If you pull the branch and test it, you'll probably get something somewhat functional. So what do they do? They keep going. Again and again. Until the project reaches a point where no one knows how anything works.

Isn't this the opposite of failing faster, it lets people who would have never made it past the first few hurdles and give up get deep in and then the false hope that they can then prompt their way out of whatever mess resulting in deeper and deeper spaghetti.

florianherrengt 3 hours ago||
But now they can now move so fast that nobody has a realistic chance to stop them before the damage compounds. They get into a much deeper mess much faster.
barbazoo 2 hours ago||
We always talk about damage, what's the damage here?
flatline 2 hours ago|||
You deploy an application that ostensibly has the desired capabilities but it fails at scale, or the architecture is not extensible to add new capabilities or fix bugs. Those are expensive mistakes and in safety-critical domains could be deadly.

The thing is I've worked on plenty of code like this written by humans. AI just accelerates the process and puts this type of code within reach of more people. It could be seen as a step backwards in good software engineering practices we've painfully learned over the last two decades. I see it as a cycle repeating itself in a new iteration, with the hope that we'll end up with still better tools and processes in another few years. But I agree it can and will result in real harm in the meantime.

danparsonson 1 hour ago||||
Code that accidentally ships every 100th order out for free... exploits releasing customer PID and causing regulatory nightmares... self-driving cars that reboot at 70mph... The only limit is your imagination!
josephg 2 hours ago||||
A giant pile of unmaintainable, brittle code nobody understands. At some point, even LLMs struggle to make changes without introducing bugs.
Kinrany 2 hours ago||||
For example, doing a marketing push assuming that the app works, and then having it fail in trivial ways at release.
jayd16 2 hours ago||||
Waste of time and therefore money is a big one.
greenavocado 2 hours ago|||
The next decade of software consulting will be defined by repairing the Big Ball of Mud https://www.laputan.org/mud/
whateveracct 2 hours ago||
> Now they can just prompt an agent for a few hours and open a PR.

Bruh..I haven't consistently sat at my computer for even a hour at a time to code for a decade..people spend that much time in Claude??

wiradikusuma 11 minutes ago||
I told my (small) team of developers that they're free to use anything to get them more productive: (company-provided) AI, black magic, WFH to avoid traffic, etc. But I also tell them that every human (including myself) is responsible for their own (direct/indirect through delegation) work so we can't say "a genie did that, not me". So far it's net positive for us with AI.
tarkin2 15 minutes ago|
The main thing it's removing is the skills you gain through actual practice, and replacing those with the demand that you subscribe to OpenAI etc to do your job.

But, moreover, the demand your company subscribes. But not your company anymore, because you'll probably be replaced by one engineer (and an AI subscription) who's now trying to do your job and about four or five other jobs.

And this one engineer will become more and more reliant on AI companies, AI companies that'll go for the throat once they've hollowed out all the skills that used to exist in the engineering market.

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