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Posted by pella 12 hours ago

GLM-5.3: Frontier coding with emergent cyber capabilities(z.ai)
922 points | 466 comments
leobuskin 5 hours ago|
I bought $18 GLM official subscription yesterday (5.2, but new model version was already leaking on some docs), set it up with Claude Code harness... and I’ve bumped to $80 plan almost immediately. It’s the first model that agreed on a proper security research (red team scenario), executed it seamlessly, including 0-days in WP plugins, RCE, 6.8 kernel exploit adaptation, etc - while playing against another GLM agent as a defender (following HF story)!

I understand that such models can be used by malicious actors, but it’s fair to have it publicly available (and play on your side in case of emergency). This is what changes the world in a better way, I think, not the guardrails.

takerofnaps 1 hour ago||
At my work I have a $500 monthly AI budget. I have been using the $200 Claude subscription and most of my use is with Claude code. I think I'm going to switch to either kimi or glm and use the opencode harness. Both fable 5 and opus 5 have outright refused things like security related bug fixes and making monitoring tools. I am so happy that open models are good now
rattlesnakedave 5 hours ago|||
You should try a better harness. Try pi, or ohmypi if you want a good OOB experience
weego 1 hour ago|||
what is a harness? The comments below are mixing IDE/ADE but other suggestions are purely terminal things and I don't get what their value is over just a terminal. Is a harness like a loop where it's just a vague thing that everyone nods about but everyone is nodding at something different?
jewel 14 minutes ago|||
My understanding is that the harness is the set of function calls (or tool calls) that let the LLM interact with your codebase. It's independent of the IDE or CLI.

The tool calls will be, among other things, something like ReadFile, RipGrep, PatchFile, Shell.

When people talk about the value of different harnesses, they're also implicitly talking about the quality of the system prompt.

The same exact model, when given a different set of tools and a different system prompt, can behave differently.

kristjansson 11 minutes ago|||
harnesss == thing that calls LLM API, acts on response, and maybe does that again.
yogthos 4 hours ago||||
I'm gonna shamelessly plug my own here :) https://dirge-code.github.io/
Shorel 3 hours ago|||
I like it.

I think creating your own agent is the Hello World of agentic coding. Instead of Rust, I used D for mine.

anentropic 3 hours ago|||
That actually looks nice
gigatexal 4 hours ago||||
I’m in the Claude code harness for everything boat too. What are the alternatives?
KronisLV 4 hours ago|||
What the person above is suggesting:

* https://pi.dev/

* https://omp.sh/

(no personal opinions of either, links might be useful)

I think that OpenCode is nice, their CLI version is enjoyable and their desktop/web version is okay:

* https://opencode.ai/

I also quite like driving OpenCode through something like Kepler / Paseo and tools like that (with those I can still use my Anthropic Condition by Claude Code being treated similarly - as something that gets tasks dispatched to it, while the GUI I see is Kepler / Paseo).

On the desktop side, ZCode was surprisingly usable for something that came out of nowhere (I wasn't aware of it at all before trying out the GLM Coding Plan): https://zcode.z.ai/en

vadansky 2 hours ago|||
Last time I tried some of these, none of them had the "manual mode" that CC has, where it shows you change by change as diffs and you can edit them before accepting and moving on to the next change. I like that because if it's going off pattern I can spot it early on and guide it correctly, instead of having to review the whole completed diff at the end when it's too late. I should spend the weekend checking them out again to see if they added that but I assume with everyone going full agent mode they probably didn't.
eli 2 hours ago|||
The philosophy with Pi is it is minimal (but functional) out of the box and easily extensible. I'm not familiar with that feature but I would not at all be surprised if someone already coded a Pi extension that does it.
0xbadcafebee 1 hour ago|||
Both Pi and OpenCode let you customize them. You tell the AI you want "something like claude code manual mode", and they'll modify your configs to do the same thing, or build an extension for you

(however, it's much faster to use Plan Mode to build a plan of what it will do, and then execute the plan in Build Mode. you can also have the AI make a script that will be executed deterministically)

badcafe23423435 1 hour ago|||
No one in their right mind would install software using `curl | bash`
rob 4 hours ago||||
T3 Code has been amazing. Completely free. Really impressed with the desktop app and the mobile app experience and the way it works seamlessly has me actually accomplishing tons of stuff while I'm out on mobile that I would otherwise have to wait to come home for. First time in a while I'm actually excited to use a desktop UI instead of the terminal. Blows away the official Claude Code mobile app. I can switch between my Claude and Codex monthly subscriptions in it as well. There's a TestFlight beta SwiftUI mobile version that's so much nicer than the one in the App Store. I'm running the nightly version of the desktop app.

And this is coming from someone that's not particularly a big fan of Theo. T3 Code should get more recognition; people aren't just aware of it yet.

skybrian 4 hours ago||||
If you like running everything in a VM and using a web browser as your UI, Shelley is very good: https://github.com/boldsoftware/shelley

It works nicely in the browsers on my tablet and phone, too.

On exe.dev you can ask it to customize itself, and it will automatically rebase your customizations when upgrading to a new release.

aqme28 4 hours ago||||
ArtificialAnalysis puts out benchmarks for harnesses now as well, and OpenCode seems to be winning it. https://artificialanalysis.ai/agents/coding-agents#coding-ag...

I only found this yesterday, and it inspired me to start testing out OpenCode.

vitorgrs 2 hours ago|||
Just a warning, this is on Opus. There's not a clear harness winner. It will change depending on the models.
bensyverson 4 hours ago||||
Can OpenCode dispatch background subagents yet? I tried it a week ago and saw nothing. This is 99% of my workflow at this point.
aqme28 3 hours ago|||
Having just "asked" my opencode instance-- Yes, but it's behind an experimental flag and not necessarily feature-complete.
jauntywundrkind 2 hours ago|||
In the new v2 beta, yes. Major QoL upgrade, so much less sitting around waiting.
flanked-evergl 2 hours ago||
The v2 branch of OpenCode has not been touched for months, if it's beeing developed then I don't know where.
jauntywundrkind 1 hour ago||
this is very easy to check. i promise i'm not tricking you and just uploaded this. https://github.com/anomalyco/opencode/tree/v2

this is the integration branch for https://opencode.ai/v2 . it has been for months. it's where the Effect-based refactor has been landing.

dmix 4 hours ago||||
I'm not surprised to also see Cursor above Claude code, their harness is very good.
leobuskin 4 hours ago||
In what scenarios?
dmix 2 hours ago||
It indexes the code efficiently, seems to find stuff quicker, it has a very nice UI (much better than Claude Codes IMO), it has a nice sub-agent UX which I find triggers more reliably, diffs render nicely. Otherwise it just seems to work in a purely vibes sense.

That said Claude Code is perfectly fine. I just prefer the integrated experience of using Cursors since I already use VSCode, but I still mostly use Claude Code because of their Max/Fable plan.

arational 3 hours ago|||
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jpadkins 2 hours ago||||
Piggybacking on this thread to ask my question: What are alternatives that are multiplayer (team oriented) by default? For example, I want my team to see all my sessions easily, vise versa. another way of stating: all the agents are running in a container that that any member of the team can view and interact with.
rush86999 2 hours ago||
Mine is a WIP for automation but has similar concepts to what you're looking for: https://github.com/rush86999/atom
nextaccountic 4 hours ago||||
https://github.com/tontinton/maki is tackling the right issues IMO. not sure how they compare with the rest
schmuhblaster 3 hours ago||||
I think that writing your own harness is a rite of passage now, just like writing your own search engine or database, rolling your own crypto…

Anyways, please try mine!

https://github.com/deepclause/deepclause-sdk

gigatexal 4 hours ago||||
thank you all! got something to tinker with this weekend

i like to challenge my assumptions and try new tools

infecto 4 hours ago||
Just as a +1 anecdote. I enjoy using pi a lot. I used to h think the harness matters a lot but with the current iteration of models I am starting to sway that while it matters it’s less and less important and that CC is bloated. I did some quick tests when I switched and a task that would take $5 in tokens would be completed in $0.50 in pi. Very anecdotal and I don’t have a test framework setup to make this very official but increasingly felt like CC was spinning its wheels on the easiest of tasks.
gigatexal 2 hours ago|||
are ohmypi and pi related?

that's a very compelling use case, thank you

xabd 3 hours ago|||
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leobuskin 4 hours ago|||
I’ve tried a bunch of them, and I seriously do not understand these recommendations. It was a rough road and a steep hill, but right now CC is absolutely the best harness on the market, as for me, whatever top tier model is under the hood (mostly, some of them, like DeepSeek, don’t fit CC at all).
infecto 4 hours ago|||
Inversely I don’t understand the praise for CC. These days it feels like bloatware. It absolutely can get the work done but when I measure on token and time use it ends up being a multiple of pi like harnesses.

CC works but for me it felt like increasingly they have zero incentive to make it a great experience. You hear folks like Boris talk about spinning up thousands of agents over night and agents chatting back and forth in GitHub issues and while I think it’s great from figuring out what the future looks like I don’t think it represents the reality of ROI today. So the folks building the tool are so disconnected I am simply not sure it’s a great experience anymore.

barbazoo 3 hours ago||
So is the quantitative difference in token use the only difference or do you think there's also a different qualitat? I'm on CC only and immensely happy. Very productive both at work and privately and at work I average around $250 a month which probably means nothing but it's little compared to my salary.

Is that the main concern though, cost?

disgruntledphd2 3 hours ago|||
For me, at least it's that the newer Claude models seem optimised for one-shotting things, which is not what I want. As the amount of code per turn increases, I have a harder job keeping up and ensuring that it's doing what I want.

That being said, I had to nope out of a similar thing from GPT 5.6 today, so it appears to be a US frontier lab issue. Claude is particularly bad though, as it produces far too much code even when I tell it not to, unlike GPT (and Kimi) which at least listen to me a little better.

More generally, I want a usable human review experience, and Claude code doesn't deliver that for me.

infecto 3 hours ago|||
Quality is hard to measure and I would not say the concern is so much cost but the intersection of cost and time. Often I am jamming on something and I like being somewhat in the loop. So maybe same level of quality, I am using Anthropic modela for both harnesses, but I get to the output quicker and at a drastically lower cost.
everforward 3 hours ago||||
Funnily enough, I would say almost the opposite. CC’s feature set is basically table stakes for an agent these days (does it have ACP yet? Very close to behind table stakes if not) and it has a lot of bloat powering that.

IMO part of it is that the underlying LLMs have gotten better enough that harnesses feel better even if they haven’t changed. I have a toy harness that barely implements the features you’d expect and it works surprisingly well. Like there’s literally nothing clever, it calls tools and that’s about it, and it still mostly does the right thing.

jazzypants 2 hours ago||
Why would anyone ever need ACP? I'm not trying to be an asshole. I just seriously don't understand the value proposition.

Edit: lol, I don't think ACP is even actively developed anymore. It seems to have been merged into another seemingly pointless standard with an even worse name, A2A. [0]

[0] https://github.com/orgs/i-am-bee/discussions/5

jazzypants 2 hours ago|||
It's buggier for me than it has ever been before. I don't think that agentic coding always leads to such a buggy mess. I just don't think that the Anthropic front-end software team is very good at agentic coding.
dominotw 4 hours ago|||
what is this comment based on ? vibes?
scrollop 3 hours ago|||
https://artificialanalysis.ai/agents/coding-agents#coding-ag...
rpdillon 4 hours ago||||
Based on the fact that Claude Code is only optimized for Anthropic models, whereas Pi and Omp are optimized for a wide variety of models, including open weights.
dominotw 1 hour ago||
they are not really optimized for 'wide variety of models' . what optimization did pi do for glm 5.3?
rpdillon 35 minutes ago||
Tool calling success rate, in the case of omp.
makerdiety 4 hours ago||||
because not everything is a shilling advertisement?
infecto 4 hours ago|||
Vibes like your low quality comment?

What’s the counter argument? pi and ohmypi are pretty fantastic. Of course like all developer tools it depends how you do your work but I am not sure what you are trying to achieve in your comment.

dominotw 1 hour ago||
how would i comeup with counter argument if i dont know what original argument is. No one is disagreeing with your subjective experience, gp comment said 'better' without qualification.
bicepjai 2 hours ago|||
Yes, I am tired of Claude and GPTs. I am ready to diversify my $300 per month on other vendors. Will try GLM. How was your rate limits and availability experience on $80 dollar plan?
leobuskin 2 hours ago||
It’s comparable to Anthropic usage, to be honest. 2x GLM agents ate 18% of weekly usage on this mid-tier plan within ~8 hrs (non-stop work, a lot of tool calls, appx 4 compactions each), I think. I didn’t make a proper statistics snapshot, sorry.
maayank 4 hours ago|||
“ Open Source: We will release the weights in two weeks after launch, once safety evaluation and hardening are complete.”

Cybersecurity capability might be nerfed

nananana9 2 hours ago||
We'll unnerf them, don'r worry.
jermaustin1 5 hours ago|||
> I understand that such models can be used by malicious actors, but it’s fair to have it publicly available

I feel like there should be some mechanism to prove you own the code/app/site/whatever and it will remove the guardrails from the LLMs allowing them to find and fix these vulnerabilities.

fny 2 hours ago|||
This is a "they have guns so we need guns" scenario.

You can't guarantee everyone else will use a neutered model.

gdhkgdhkvff 4 hours ago||||
Isn’t this essentially what anthropic is doing, albeit in a manual fashion? They work with code owners to run mythos and find issues.
matheusmoreira 3 hours ago|||
Only if you're some big corporation with deep pockets. They actually accepted me into their cyber program but Fable's still locked down.
BeanAndCookies 3 hours ago|||
OpenAI now makes it easy to join their verified security program. Took me 5 minutes, and I was able to get GPT to do a full end-to-end pen test
leobuskin 5 hours ago|||
Impossible with source code, possible to bypass with app/site
doginasuit 4 hours ago||
Don't we already do this with services like Let's Encrypt, which is arguably more sensitive? If you had the codebase you could fake it, but it would still provide some amount of protection against abuse.
Someone1234 4 hours ago||
With Let's Encrypt, all the verification is done on their side with them controlling the connection between themselves and whatever they're trying to verify.

In this case, you can put whatever you want between the harness you're running (or modify the harness itself), and essentially "lie" to the model. Any verification technique would be fairly trivial to bypass, while you continue to run the harness locally.

matheusmoreira 4 hours ago|||
How much usage do you get out of it per week? How many millions of tokens?

Anthropic was stingy as hell with its Fable and cybersecurity nonsense, switched to OpenAI which is much better but still not enough. I'm tempted to switch again...

leobuskin 1 hour ago|||
On $80 plan 200M tokens ~20% of weekly usage
czottmann 3 hours ago|||
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api 5 hours ago|||
They're invaluable for developers to fix their code. This is definitely an area where AI decisively beats human devs in a very valuable way. It can try so much surface area so fast.

If it won't attack my stuff, it won't help me build my stuff to be secure.

leobuskin 5 hours ago||
Exactly my CoT! I hope z.ai won’t change this behavior after training it on our input the same way as Anthropic did (shame on you, folks, seriously)
darkwater 4 hours ago||
> after training it on our input the same way as Anthropic did (shame on you, folks, seriously)

What do you mean with this? Honest question!

leobuskin 4 hours ago||
Fable wasn’t trained on github commits, let’s be fair.
misiti3780 4 hours ago||
how do you configure claude code to use GLM ?
leobuskin 3 hours ago|||
https://docs.z.ai/devpack/latest-model#switching-models-in-c...
z4y5f3 9 hours ago||
Apparently they are scanning OSS and popular software at scale and disclosing the vulnerabilities they found: https://cvd.z.ai/

Most of these are under embargo, but it seems there are a lot of CVE here from a wide range of popular software, many considered critical or high.

I understand the argument of "people are not actively looking", but isn't the cost for such a scan getting lower by the week, and Anthropic's Project Glasswing is supposed to find them quite a while ago?

SyneRyder 9 hours ago||
> ... Anthropic's Project Glasswing is supposed to find them quite a while ago?

That was my thought too. For all of Anthropic's talk about their "adversaries", it seems Z.AI have been quietly offering fixes for single shot Remote Code Execution flaws in US software (Safari / WebKit) that Apple and Glasswing / Mythos missed, and that Apple would not attribute to GLM.

oefrha 6 hours ago|||
> and that Apple would not attribute to GLM

That was a wtf to me, so I checked Apple’s latest iOS release security content and GLM & z.ai is mentioned once (under WebKit), Anthropic is mentioned twice, Codex is mentioned once. Not clear if there are other instances where the model did most of the work but wasn’t credited. I didn’t bother to check other releases.

https://support.apple.com/en-us/128066

chvid 8 hours ago||||
Who says they missed them? Could also be sitting pretty in CIA’s long list of ready to go Vault7-like exploits.
stingraycharles 6 hours ago||||
> That was my thought too. For all of Anthropic's talk about their "adversaries"

It’s very likely they found all of them, but that the same happened that happened to Microsoft a couple of decades ago: NSA orders not to disclose / fix them so that they can put it in their collection of unfixed zero days.

delichon 2 hours ago|||
This is a coherent explanation for why federal model censorship has started with cyber capabilities. But this GLM model release is an in-your-face challenge to that policy. They now have to either set models free or impose a censorship regime that will put anyone not under it at an advantage. Or muddle along in the middle as usual.
ben_w 2 hours ago||
> Or muddle along in the middle as usual.

I'm not a gambling person, but if I was this would be my bet.

z4y5f3 1 hour ago|||
Then "security through secrecy" is really bad mantra especially in the age of AI: others will find the same zero days very soon. If they attack you, then this loses the whole plot. If they propose a fix, then your arsenal becomes smaller.
tsss 5 hours ago|||
Probably Anthropic found them too and promptly got a call from Isreal to stop looking.
rbehrends 6 hours ago|||
> I understand the argument of "people are not actively looking", but isn't the cost for such a scan getting lower by the week, and Anthropic's Project Glasswing is supposed to find them quite a while ago?

You have to consider that having an LLM scan for vulnerabilities is hardly infallible. It is a search guided by heuristics and given a large enough codebase, it is unlikely to identify all vulnerabilities.

Personally, I've had Fable 5, GPT 5.6 Sol, and GLM 5.2 all looking for correctness issues in an old abandoned WIP codebase of mine and all of them found some that the others hadn't discovered. Now, correctness issues aren't the same as vulnerabilities, but the same principle about using heuristics to find defects applies.

Majromax 4 hours ago|||
> [A]ll of them found some that the others hadn't discovered. Now, correctness issues aren't the same as vulnerabilities, but the same principle about using heuristics to find defects applies.

This makes perfect sense, but that conflicts with the impression put forward by Anthropic and OpenAI (in particular) that they alone occupy 'frontier model' spots. Frontier models should large dominate their competitors on a capability basis, but if GLM 5.2 (now 5.3) is routinely finding bugs / vulnerabilities missed by Fable and Sol then GLM might be genuinely a frontier-grade model by itself.

rbehrends 2 hours ago|||
> This makes perfect sense, but that conflicts with the impression put forward by Anthropic and OpenAI (in particular) that they alone occupy 'frontier model' spots.

Not necessarily. Even near the frontier, we don't really have a total ordering of capabilities, but a partial order. And even frontier models make plenty of mistakes. Combined with the randomness inherent in searching large codebases for vulnerabilities or correctness issues, it is entirely plausible that even much weaker models (and GLM-5.2 isn't even weak) can stumble upon issues that stronger models missed.

My current hypothesis – for which I have only limited evidence, unfortunately – is that it is better to have multiple reasonably powerful (but not necessarily frontier) models looking for issues than just one very powerful one. And even then you're likely to miss out on some issues.

Macha 3 hours ago||||
“Company hypes own product, downplays competitors” is still a thing with AI
ben_w 2 hours ago|||
Fable 5 is just over two months old.

For normal software it would be as you say, but LLM progress is so ridiculously fast that things go from "bleeding edge" to "eh, you'll do" in about that timeframe, and "eh, you'll do" to "why even bother with this old rubbish?" in the same again.

Or, from a different perspective, we can expect some new frontier model from Anthropic in a week or two, and from OpenAI in a month or so.

camdenreslink 2 hours ago|||
I find that LLMs also generate a lot of false positives, or extremely minor issues that don't warrant a fix (that are always overstated by the LLM as very important!). Signal to noise is still not great and requires somebody to wade through and pick out the actual good findings.
dgellow 7 hours ago|||
> and Anthropic's Project Glasswing is supposed to find them quite a while ago?

We cannot trust a single company to report security issues, it’s good to see competition in that domain

ofjcihen 6 hours ago||
Open source competition no less.
jayd16 1 hour ago|||
In a similar vein, does anyone know how to classify the kinds of problems that are being found?

Is it possible to build heavier traditional linting to catch whatever is being caught in a more deterministic way? It seems to me that would be far more efficient in the long run (even if the efficiency is only for the AI to know that aspect was already checked).

fsndz 5 hours ago|||
this is impressive and actually matches my expectations in terms of near term AI progress. we are going to continue to seem impressive progress in coding & related, anything where verifiability is scalable in an automated way: https://transitions.substack.com/p/a-quantum-of-ai-progress?...
andai 3 hours ago|||
> but isn't the cost for such a scan getting lower by the week

Not with Anthropic's models!

mcintyre1994 6 hours ago|||
If you look at the distribution of their findings in the linked post, most of theirs are issues introduced a long time ago, almost all before 2006.

Complete speculation, but I wonder if they and Anthropic are scanning very different codebases and Anthropic's skew would be in the other direction.

sscaryterry 8 hours ago|||
Interesting... So Chinese models are not so bad?
zorked 8 hours ago|||
There's a chance that the real reason why they want to ban Chinese models is that they are so good at fixing bugs and preventing exploits that intelligence agencies have been using for espionage and surveillance for a long time.
andy_ppp 6 hours ago|||
Anyone who knows anything realises banning things is a) impossible and b) your enemies will use them anyway, you are just depriving your own side of the advantages.
sscaryterry 6 hours ago|||
Unfortunately, those in power, pretty much all over the world, lie/deceive themselves and believe they can.
cindyllm 5 hours ago||
[dead]
mcintyre1994 6 hours ago||||
In this case depriving US companies would be the point though, so that's not necessarily a disadvantage.
embedding-shape 6 hours ago||||
> Anyone who knows anything realises banning things is a) impossible and

Maybe "It's really hard" is more accurate? We (humanity) for most part basically agreed to ban the usage of various chemical weapons in wartime, which seems to have drastically reduced the usage of it, even though it's still used by shit actors today from time to time. But it's hard to deny that usage didn't decrease after banning it, which makes "banning" maybe not completely useless for certain things.

"Banning" things that can be easily copied over cyberweb transportation pipes feels like an fool's errand though, regardless of what it is. It's just too easy to get around, compared to actual physical items I suppose.

Oranguru 2 hours ago|||
This is different now. US labs and companies are not releasing frontier-level models openly (specially those capable of assisting cyber intelligence work), but commercializing them instead. Thus, any ban would not be symmetrical to begin with, and that is precisely what maintains the balance.
criley2 5 hours ago|||
It's pretty easy for the US to functionally ban chinese models. They only have to target US firms like inference providers or the biggest users, and pretty much the whole domestic market will fall into line. They don't actually care about the final few %.

Regardless of whether or not adversaries are using them, the US has by far the most compute available, and we've now hit the line where major providers are no longer releasing their best models. The public gets the "current" level of intelligence, while the US government gets to control access to the actual frontier of non-public AI. From their perspective, their enemies using GLM5.3 while they have GPT6 and Mythos6 or whatever is a fine trade.

I don't support a ban at all, nor the US's behavior, I'm just pointing out some facts that change the argument.

skeptic_ai 1 hour ago|||
But the real bad guys will be this final few %, which defeats the purpose. The 99% will be average user which will swing to cheapest AI or easiest to access.
nylonstrung 5 hours ago|||
[dead]
mcintyre1994 6 hours ago||||
I don't think this really works because the Chinese government is going to be incentivised to tip off the US companies to deny the US government those exploits. I guess maybe that's what the open source patch program here is about, making sure banning the models doesn't work because they can just report the exploits without the company running the model themselves.
ajam1507 6 hours ago||||
How does banning the models in the US prevent this?
cyanydeez 6 hours ago||||
when in doubt, it's better to assume capitalism than anything else.
maipen 8 hours ago|||
Do you actually believe this?
VulgarExigency 8 hours ago|||
The CIA ran one of the world's largest cryptography companies, for DECADES[1]. Are you truly so naive that you believe intelligence agencies that have more to gain from stifling the discovery of vulnerabilities they know of and use wouldn't do so?

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-...

this_user 6 hours ago|||
You should probably realise that the world has radically changed since then. This kind of thing works when you have a significant lead in the field that makes keeping vulnerabilities open sufficiently low risk for your own side. But if your adversaries have similar capabilities, then the calculation changes.
orbital-decay 6 hours ago||
Has anything changed? Governments are hoarding undisclosed vulnerabilities, using them as they see fit instead of fixing. Every espionage, surveillance, or war campaign (see Russia v Ukraine, US/Israel v Iran etc) is followed by a ton of burned 0-days.

>This kind of thing works when you have a significant lead in the field

No? It works even if the adversary has the same capabilities. It only stops working when everything is fixed.

meowface 7 hours ago|||
I believe it is unlikely. (Not because I do not believe NSA is hoarding 0-days, but for many other reasons.)

I'm curious: to any professional vulnerability researchers reading this, what do you think?

neves 6 hours ago|||
I used to call everything a conspiracy theory, but then Glenn Greenwald published "No Place to Hide: Edward Snowden, the NSA and the Surveillance State".

Now i know that reality is worse than the worst conspiracy theorist.

budsniffer952 6 hours ago|||
I don't think reasonable people post here much anymore. It's mostly galaxy brained conspiracy theorists and ignormamuses posting political garbage. Reddit-lite on the way to full blown Reddit
orbital-decay 8 hours ago||||
Why would you even believe the opposite? US spooks have been amassing vulnerabilities and relying on them for decades, they literally pioneered it in the 90's if not earlier. Everyone does it now but the US is the biggest of them all. Surely this devalues a lot of what they did. Moreover, the way the US government handled new capabilities, and OpenAI's training policy (they are in bed with the government) just scream "we want to create weapons for cyber-offence and deny them to everyone else"

It might not be the reason, but of course it's a contributing factor.

budsniffer952 6 hours ago||
[flagged]
orbital-decay 6 hours ago|||
Good thing I said nothing of that (especially nothing about China). Reread it again to understand you built an incredible strawman and ignored my last sentence.
ndriscoll 5 hours ago|||
Well we know that the US government is pushing to restrict access to such models while the Chinese are publishing them for free, so it's mostly a matter of motivations, not the actual facts of the matter. And the USG has a documented history of unsavory behavior (including toward its own citizenry) in that area.

So we might ask if one of the reasons the US is being the bad guy is it's usual spying antics, and we're left asking why China is being the good guy.

subscribed 3 hours ago||||
Intelligence agencies have been known for exploiting and planting software and hardware Buga for decades, going as far as weakening cryptographic standards or intercepting hardware in transit to implant a backdoor device.

Why do you _not_ believe it's a possibility?

sscaryterry 8 hours ago|||
Critical thinking says this is not only possible but likely too.
numpad0 7 hours ago||||
They've always been good enough for double digit less money. Always. Anyone thinking "Chinese models fake models built using dirty distillation scam" don't know what they're talking about.

Distillation is just forcing the model to use an exam prep workbook for training instead of generic publicly available textbooks. The models themselves has to be smart enough for that to work. It's the exact same thing as Asian tiger mom double schoolwork strategy, to paint a picture.

fwip 1 hour ago|||
To carry on this analogy - do test prep workbooks make you meaningfully more competent in general, or is it benchmaxing? (Versus studying textbooks for a similar time, of course.)
budsniffer952 6 hours ago|||
Their best models are getting more and more expensive, and still aren't SOTA.

It's almost like there's an actual cost to developing these models, and the Chinese don't have magic dirt that allows them to do it at a fraction of the cost.

cromka 8 hours ago|||
Looks like they're going for good PR now, to avoid smearing by the "Western" models. Smart!
croon 8 hours ago||
I'd love to live in a society where people and corporations do good things for PR.
blooalien 7 hours ago|||
> I'd love to live in a society where people and corporations do good things for PR.

Maybe so, but I'm not sure I'd like to live in China of all places. (Don't get me wrong. Lotta places I'd like to visit if I ever got the chance, and China's on that list, but to live there? I don't think so.) Maybe one of the Nordic countries?

vjvjvjvjghv 7 hours ago|||
PR for good things doesn’t make money.
ThouYS 7 hours ago|||
amazing! huge clusters in code from the 1980s haha
re-thc 8 hours ago|||
> Anthropic's Project Glasswing is supposed to find them quite a while ago?

Someone still has to run it. The analysis and fix could be someone's machine but not committed / published.

dzonga 5 hours ago||
Wordpress having a high number of vulnerabilities not surprising lol
aliljet 12 hours ago||
This is absolutely still shy of Sol and Fable, but only just by a hair. Ridiculous results. There's still not a compelling economic reason to drop OpenAI courtesy of the ludicrous reset addiction that's taken place, but it feels like we're on the precipice.

How are you all toying with running this kind of thing in a mega quantized way locally? Two weeks out from released weights, but this is still just GLM 5.2 with post-training magic.

varshar 4 minutes ago||
>> This is absolutely still shy of Sol and Fable, but only just by a hair. Ridiculous results.

Agreed.

This release is the first time I'm able to employ a GLM model to write a substantive plan for a complex Clojure PR [1] with both Opus 5 and GPT-5.x playing supporting / reviewer roles.

Initial results are __very__ encouraging. GLM 5.3 -

- follows directions,

- digs into detail, and

- correlates well.

Still not confident about entrusting GLM with implementation - but IMHO, western labs are entirely cooked.

[1] 2K LoC PR in a 55K LoC Clojure + Clojurescript repo

MangoCoffee 11 hours ago|||
OpenAI and Anthropic are both seeking trillion IPOs, while Chinese labs are pumping out open-weight models that are free for US providers to host and monetize.

These Chinese models cost less of US SOTA models to run, even if they are less capable. Providers can just run them, offer cheap tokens, and pocket the margin.

I just don't see how you justify a trillion valuation for US AI labs when the underlying models are being commoditized this fast.

Gigachad 9 hours ago|||
This is going to be catastrophic.

Whether AI works or is useful or not isn’t even the question anymore. It can fulfil every promise Sam Altman has been making and will still make no financial sense to justify these valuations.

dhx 8 hours ago|||
I take it from [1] (transcript of recent DeepSeek CEO discussion with investors) that DeepSeek would disagree on the immediate catastrophic impact to the likes of OpenAI or Anthropic. The reason is even though technology parity mostly exists, only OpenAI, Anthropic et al have the inference capacity to gain market share and generate revenue. Chinese vendors don't have the chips needed to scale up inference and gain market share, and the DeepSeek CEO doesn't think this would happen in optimistic circumstances in the next 3 years, but thinks it might be possible in 5 years.

In summary, regardless of country of origin, availability of inference capacity is the moat protecting the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic, not technology superiority.

[1] https://www.fredgao.com/p/deepseeks-liang-wenfeng-breaks-his

master_crab 6 hours ago|||
That merely pushes the valuation onto the hardware makers, not the companies that have the temporary preferential access to their hardware.
zarzavat 8 hours ago||||
That makes them at best temporary middlemen.

It only justifies their long term valuations if they can leverage that temporary monopoly for technological superiority (they can't) or lasting market share (they can't).

Chinese models prove there's no technical advantage, and the software side is heavily commoditized so there's not much advantages to market share either.

regularfry 8 hours ago|||
The question mark in my mind over the technological superiority is whether the additional volume of data they see due to capturing the top of the market allows them to do recursive self-improvement in a way nobody else can match, before any of the other labs can figure it out. That's the only runaway outcome I can see.
zarzavat 6 hours ago|||
If you have exponentially increasing use of your harness, then it's true that every day you capture exponentially more data, but it's also true that every day exponentially more data will slip through the cracks of your would-be monopoly and that data arrives at your competitors via various channels (competitor harnesses, subsidized reselling, etc)

The very exponential that you are relying on to give you runaway improvement is also giving exponentially increasing data to your competitors. All else being equal your competitors stay a step behind but you never develop a monopoly either. That's the best case for Anthropic/OpenAI. In reality, training data is just one variable, exponentials don't last forever, and your competitors will get better at capturing a bigger slice of training data.

Johnyjohnson123 5 hours ago||||
If user data would become such a key ingredient (which it might, i actually remember noam shazeer talking about the importance of user data), i think chinese labs can still get it from china, as keep in mind it ahs a billion people behind the great firewall banned from using us llms. And btw broadly for any gap like this, you really gotta consider that if its becoming a bottleneck, chinese labs will find a way to buy it from one of the labs unless theres strict regulation at the government level
edot 6 hours ago||||
But is that data good? That's the question. As in, is my usage at work:

a) indicative of problems that aren't already out there in the wild? (no) b) are the responses I'm getting so good and novel that the model can improve itself? (no)

It's the garbage in garbage out idea, just scaled up. If the model gave a bad answer, and I didn't catch it, and you now train on that I/O pair (my perhaps crappy prompt, the bad output), then you're not going to improve anything.

idiotsecant 4 hours ago||
It seems like the user response rating mechanism might be a valuable signal
anon373839 6 hours ago|||
Yes, RSI seems to be the new AI industry McGuffin of 2026, just as agentic capability has become table stakes and scaremongering has become a punchline.
applicative 5 hours ago|||
The Chinese models are adopting licensing quite rapidly and Xi will soon enough close them for security reasons. The most widely used model, integrated across Bytedance apps and operations, has never been open and is most closely associated with the state.
musebox35 2 hours ago||||
I would add that it is not just capacity, but also negotiation ability. With scale comes the ability to negotiate better prices than everyone else. Even if you can find capacity for your smallish user base, your inference cost can not match these companies unless you have a technical advantage for your inference cases. Squeezing the hardware requires request batching and caching which are far easier at scale and sustained user activity.
Johnyjohnson123 5 hours ago||||
Thanks for sharing.

Is lack of inference chips due to the trading blocks by trump administration? What if Trump agrees to sell chips to china, would they collapse then? That's not a very strong position to be at

alienbaby 6 hours ago||||
is that releveant if people can host their own models? that activity still undermines the valuation / diminishes the US companies 'moat' ?
mtrovo 4 hours ago||
People can host these models is doing a lot of lifting here, these are models that depends on 5 digits on specialized installation to run on.

IMHO, this has the impact of softening the impact of data centers sitting unused in the long term if they can still serve open weight models, even if Anthropic or OAI have to scale down their expansion rate to pay the bills.

Regardless, reality has to give at some point; these valuations don't make any sense. We've been valuing GenAI as disruptive work, when in reality they're much closer to cloud providers with a beefy, one-pony-trick R&D department.

cyanydeez 6 hours ago|||
they have the capacity via market manipulation; so you know, they only have things they've bought on the governments future debt obligations.

so, you know, they're as vulnerable as utilities at this point, if only there were people who gave a shit more about society than greed.

goolz 9 hours ago||||
I have already begun winding down my spend on claude and OAI to make room for infra budget. Anecdotal, but I have no doubt a lot of others are doing the same, I very much agree the US players have major issues looming. What an exciting time to be alive!
netdevphoenix 9 hours ago|||
Not exciting for anyone directly or indirectly invested in a frontier lab or its partners. And that is a lot of people, including you.
gruturo 9 hours ago|||
No time like the present to pull out and reduce your exposure. I brought this up in my employer's forums 4 months ago and honestly it's been clear even before then. In particular, the upcoming IPOs of both oAI and Anthropic will likely be disastrous for the public - the floor is falling from under them and I don't know if they can be scrappy and work with fewer resources - their internal culture may not support this. We all knew in our hearts they're a commodity - just see how easily you can switch between the 2 of them - and now there are 10 more options costing a fraction.

When Xi Jinping did the announcement of their open weights push, they might as well cancelled their IPOs....

topato 8 hours ago||
Yes buuuut…. I do quite a bit of day trading (maybe closer to scalping) for the first few hours the market is open, everyday. Anecdotally: despite everyone knowing its valuation was ridiculous, I rode that SpaceX train pretty hard and made a pretty penny.

I close-out all my positions by end-of-trading everyday… so when the day came when there was a very clear and very scary indicator during early trading hours, quickly followed by SpaceX’s catastrophic fall right after opening bell, that was the end of my involvement….

And I fully expect oAI and anthro to be the same way. They’re being propped up with private loans, subsidies, and other tricky bookkeeping techniques. You would think their CEOs would pivot away from their current public personas. Ironically, they are like a poor man’s Elon Musk… and that doesn’t bode well for their companies

gruturo 7 hours ago||
Yes experienced investors will profit from it and leave the general public holding the bag, that's the plan I'm afraid.
zozbot234 8 hours ago||||
The frontier labs will do well if they pivot their offering towards more capable, larger-scale models that are inherently harder to both train and deploy for commodity suppliers. Their existing investments in gigawatt-scale datacenters are quite optimal for this. "Commodity" inference need not comprise the whole market.
anon373839 6 hours ago||
I don’t think this works, for a few reasons. First, intelligence gains from scaling the models bigger is sublinear now. So they could eke out a little extra performance, but the increased cost will eventually eclipse the economic value gained from this.

Second, humongous models are impractical even for them to deploy widely. They’re best used as teachers for smaller, more efficient models that can crank out the volume they need to sell.

Finally, there is a data wall. Sure, they can keep scaling RL on math problems and code. But with everything else, where will the supervision come from when they need several orders of magnitude more?

fauigerzigerk 6 hours ago|||
I agree. And even if they were able to do it for one more round, it's not a sustainable strategy. What they (Anthropic and OpenAI) need to do is build platforms and integrate verticals.
alienbaby 6 hours ago|||
assuming the technology of model architectures does not gain any further breakthroughs that returns us back to the gains previously seen. I'm of the opinion that we still have some discoveries on the mathematical side of the fence to go that will improve models further.
netdevphoenix 3 hours ago||
> I'm of the opinion that we still have some discoveries on the mathematical side of the fence to go that will improve models further.

That's assuming the infrastructure needed to develop models stays available financially and supply wise. A lot of the services used to train and develop models are supplied and funded by people who are looking for multiple returns of investment. If/when OpenAI and Anthropic valuations fall and they inevitably get acquired, will Meta/Alphabet/Microsoft still want to spend lots of money for unclear returns in the short-term? Nvidia and co are on a one way train service to hype town. I don't think they will be happy to get on a coach to hype town Temu version. The shareholders likely won't.

Also, the backlash against LLMs is growing rapidly. AI content, data centres, etc is quickly gaining negative connotations outside of visual and music artists circles. While existing models are going nowhere, developing more advanced models is very quickly getting unpopular. LLMs Data centres increasing people's bills, Anthropic destroying old books, chat bots giving unethical advice to vulnerable people, etc. It won't be long before LLM infrastructure becoming an electoral issue.

Will a small research oriented community be big enough justify maintaining the apparatus needed to produce infra tech at a profitable level post OpenAI?

goolz 5 hours ago|||
Sometimes fear can be quite exciting.
csomar 8 hours ago|||
The car industry is also a trillion $$ market in the US. I don't see why that would go any differently from the Chinese cars ban.
iinnPP 8 hours ago|||
You wouldn't download a car, would you?
visarga 7 hours ago|||
I would download it if I could, no question about it. And 64GB more RAM if I am at it.
iinnPP 18 minutes ago||
I hear you. It was really a joke about piracy.
csomar 8 hours ago|||
Most of the money will come from companies/corporations who will be required to buy safe AI. The public will be just banned from buying which might make it hard (ie: site/payment blocked) but not impossible. It could be good enough for the big whales.
noman-land 8 hours ago|||
You're comparing an entire industry to a single company.
eru 6 hours ago||||
Why is anything going to be catastrophic? Companies can go bankrupt without catastrophes for the rest of us. Happens all the time.
Zambyte 5 hours ago||
I read it as catastrophic for the companies trying to IPO. It'll be great for the rest of us though.
idiotsecant 4 hours ago||
A large portion of the economy is currently tied up in the musical chairs shell game that is AI hype. When the music stops there are going to be CEOs looking for handouts and justifying it with spooky national security buzzwords. How we respond to that will depend on whether it happens in an admin that is famously captured by the industry or not.
standeven 1 hour ago||||
The US will just do what they did with Chinese EVs: ban the superior technology to protect US companies.
cromka 7 hours ago||||
I seriously need to start considering the scenario in which this leads to next global financial crisis.
dgellow 6 hours ago|||
Just keep in mind that it can take a whole for things to play out. I’m someone who believe the US AI industry is completely unsustainable and built on sand, and will crash even if the current AI itself turns out to be very successful. But that doesn’t mean everything will burn to the ground next week. In a history book things will look very sudden but at normal speed that can easily take months to years to fully play out.

Also, take in consideration that the AI trade infected a lot of other trade in the economy, if you decide at some point to move your money to a place that is safe in case of a downturn be sure to carefully evaluate that’s actually the case

eru 6 hours ago|||
These crises are manufactured by the central banks.

Compare and contrast how the dot-com bust did _not_ lead to global financial crises. Nor did Black Monday, nor the recent string of bank failures in the US.

('Manufactured' above means that central banks are responsible. I make no judgement on intent here. Around 2008 it was incompetence by the Fed and ECB as far as I can tell. The Fed started paying interest on excess reserves and the ECB even increased rates. Twice. Amongst quite a few other missteps.)

jcfrei 7 hours ago|||
A lot of the performance of these open source models might come from distilling the closed frontier models. If those can't raise the funds anymore to train newer and better models then the whole improvement cycle might slow down.
tjpnz 7 hours ago||
Does stealing from a thief still amount to theft?
somenameforme 10 hours ago||||
Another interesting potential market here will be 'LLM in a box'. All the hardware and other tooling in a prebuilt, but modular, package ready to go. Pay one up-front cost, get a system running [whatever open LLM] with a token rate of [x], optionally configured to be immediately ready for distributed usage. Basically the opposite of cloud stuff: no rent, no dependency, 100% guaranteed uptime, guaranteed security/privacy (at least subject to your own actions), and so on.
adrian_b 9 hours ago|||
Palantir already offers a "turnkey AI datacenter", i.e. a rack with "NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra systems with eight NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs and NVIDIA Spectrum-X™ Ethernet networking for AI training and inference".

It is said that it comes with all hardware and software required to run inference or training with an open weights LLM.

The existence of this product, which competes with cloud-based offerings like those of OpenAI and Anthropic, is presumably the reason why the Palantir CEO criticized very harshly some time ago the business model of OpenAI/Anthropic.

While I doubt that the ethics of Palantir is any better than of OpenAI/Anthropic, in this particular case I have to agree with Alex Karp about "Sovereign AI", i.e. that only losers will make their business completely dependent on an external entity like OpenAI or Anthropic, who are certainly not trustworthy.

vrganj 9 hours ago|||
I'm not sure a data center run by ... Palantir of all organizations is what people have in mind when they worry about data sovereignty.
adrian_b 9 hours ago|||
They are selling it, not running it.

It is just a dedicated computer system, which should be managed by its owner, like any other on-prem servers.

I doubt that it has a good price/performance ratio, but it is a solution for those who feel that they do not want to search, buy, assemble, install and configure every HW/SW component.

iinnPP 8 hours ago|||
I take it we saw different demos.

I'm under no NDA, if you actually want to know what's up.

oarsinsync 2 hours ago|||
I'm assuming you're alluding to them selling a managed solution, alongside the unmanaged solution that the GP is referring to?
XVII 7 hours ago||||
I want to know, please tell us
idiotsecant 4 hours ago|||
Ohhh spooky vaguepost.
Panoramix 8 hours ago|||
For those that don't mind a lot of rootkit and embedded spyware you mean
crossroadsguy 8 hours ago|||
Fair but the idea of "running your LLM setup" at every "need" level and corresponding cost does make sense.

For a lot of people (and orgs I'd guess) who just go and buy ≈$20 per month plans (or more for teams), they might not even need a fraction of that cost or capability. A lot of them don't even need it for coding or graphics. Even the API access based pricing aren't great from these frontier US AI houses. The distribution of "LLM being" offered will also give rise to many open-router like offering but at the end point level - direct interfaces to the customers. Pick your vendor sort.

AI shouldn't become another "search means Google".

rxyz 6 hours ago|||
How is this different from buying a supermicro rack? Better support?
bevekspldnw 10 hours ago||||
“100% guaranteed downtime when you least can afford it and the support tickets are your problem.”

We’ve a hybrid shop, including hosting our own ML infra, and we save a ton from cloud spend with local ML. Easily one million USD over past three years. But it’s not “free”, you are shifting a lot of labor into your plate.

hypfer 9 hours ago||
And with that also gain institutional knowledge, skill up your workers and attract talent that wants to work on this stuff.

All boils down to short-term/long-term thinking.

gruturo 9 hours ago||
This. People WANT to work on this stuff. And having skilled workers is a precious advantage.
bevekspldnw 7 hours ago||
Still has to break even on the balance sheet, especially at a bootstrapped startup. We actually made most of the financial windfall in translation API fees oddly enough.

For our own model training we needed to do some large scale translation tasks of a large dataset (1M or so documents, 10 or so target languages), running full-size NLLB on-prem saved us an absurd amount of money vs Google Translate API.

(For reference doing 1M target docs into a single language in Google Translate API is roughly $120k list price. You can run full size NLLB on an 48GB NVIDIA A600 and the major difference for us was speed, but for this task time to completion wasn’t an issue.)

jurgenburgen 10 hours ago||||
> 100% guaranteed uptime

Disagree there but I think this is an interesting idea. We would need to find some more cost-efficient hardware to run it on than Nvidia GPUs.

pulse7 10 hours ago||
It will come... all big hardware players (Intel, AMD, Broadcom) and dozens of startups (Tenstorrent, etc.) are working on it...
numpad0 6 hours ago||||
What makes that kinda complicated is that multi-user throughput of LLMs scale well but single-user performance often stays constant at low ends. If you could saturate e.g. 16 concurrent session-month of demand, you can just go buy 16 of 32GB GPUs and start charging monthly for inference. That could work if you had e.g. over thousand total employees with hundreds of devs eager to trying it out, but only if the company is also interested in a private inference experiment.
zozbot234 6 hours ago||
You're talking about multi-session vs. single-session throughput. A single user can easily leverage multiple sessions via e.g. subagent swarms, especially on a lower-end setup where any single session is going to be quite slow. Saturating utilization during off-hours is harder but potentially quite feasible by assigning lower priority, unattended tasks/inference loops.
jnwatson 6 hours ago||||
I see ads for this all the time.
Godsend69 10 hours ago|||
[dead]
nkmnz 10 hours ago||||
I think at this point the question is: will the US government be willing and capable to justify the trillion dollar valuation for _one_ of the companies via regulatory capture? The US has a workforce of 170m, so 1.7 trillion would come down to 10k per person, or a discounted cashflow at 3% of 25 USD per month - not including private use, students etc.
kaashif 10 hours ago||
Why would you restrict to the US workforce? ChatGPT has a billion users.
switchers 10 hours ago|||
Because it would be the US taxpayers bailing them out.
nkmnz 6 hours ago||||
It’s a common denominator if you want to do napkin-math for a whole national economy. Regulatory capture is like a tax on those people not on the beneficiary side, so if the government were to nationalize both supply (no export license for SOTA models) and demand (no foreign or self-hosted LLMs allowed), they’d end up making everyone else pay for it in some way or the other. The governmental utility function will then include only those using the services for direct economic benefit.
topato 8 hours ago|||
They have a stupid plan to buy ten to fifty percent of all the SOTA AI companies, and giving us all a fraction of the money.

Trump keeps calling his enemies “communists”… then turns around and ‘seizes the means of production’ himself.

grey-area 10 hours ago||||
It is impossible to justify the absurd private valuations they have given themselves in collusion with investors.

I wish they had tried to IPO because then we’d see the judgement of the market on this. But that’s why they didn’t this year. How long can they keep up the charade that their models are uniquely valuable and on the path to AGI?

andsoitis 7 hours ago||
> private valuations they have given themselves in collusion with investors.

What's the collusion?

grey-area 6 hours ago||
Circular investment deals and investment deals at valuations which have no possible justification.
andsoitis 6 hours ago||
Let me ask it differently. You state the companies and their investors are colluding. Who are they colluding against?
grey-area 5 hours ago|||
The public that buys the stock at ipo at this inflated valuation and unwittingly buys indexes which include it (as with spacex).
WarmWash 4 hours ago||
All of this is public info though, and pretty well publicized at that.
cyanydeez 6 hours ago|||
its interesting, as it's typically the banks and against the public at large because the goal is to jimmy up valuations to justify IPOs then sell on opening; just like spacex.

It's what enron was doing; it's what most of crypto's offshoots were doing.

Sure you can blame the marks of the grift and say "well the public should know they're faking all this cash flow expectation".

It seems like you're either driving the grift economy or part of the collusion.

It's similar to how a cult operates, so I'll be frank: your skepticism seems biased.

andsoitis 6 hours ago||
> It's what enron was doing;

Enron hid billions of dollars in debt and fake profits.

Is this what you think is happening here?

grey-area 5 hours ago||
Nvidia has made a lot of very suspicious circular funding deals. I suspect we’ll find fraud when the bubble bursts yes.
andsoitis 5 hours ago||
You're the first person I hear claiming NVIDIA is hiding billions of dollars in debt and fake profits, never mind at the scale of Enron.

Bold claim!

sampullman 4 hours ago|||
I see the claim made somewhat commonly here.
grey-area 2 hours ago|||
That’s not the claim I made.
0xpgm 9 hours ago||||
US investors are desperate for the next hypergrowth opportunity. From what I can tell the US economic strategy is to outgrow its debt.
andsoitis 7 hours ago||
> US investors are desperate for the next hypergrowth opportunity

All investors.

chrismsimpson 10 hours ago||||
> Providers can just run them, offer cheap tokens, and pocket the margin.

There’s an assumption that you can spin up the infra and acquire customers within that margin

KeplerBoy 10 hours ago|||
Which is not unreasonable. Just hosting it in the EU and promising not to retain / sell the data let's you charge a healthy extra and compete in many areas other players can't.
andsoitis 7 hours ago|||
> Just hosting it in the EU and promising not to retain / sell the data let's you charge a healthy extra and compete in many areas other players can't.

It's been a few years. Has anyone done this successfully yet?

layer8 7 hours ago|||
There are a over a dozen EU open-weight providers. I’m not sure if they are even charging that much of an extra. EU-based clients have little reason to use non-EU inference providers.
andsoitis 6 hours ago||
> EU-based clients have little reason to use non-EU inference providers.

Which models are most popular in Europe?

jazzyjackson 4 hours ago||
I don’t have user statistics but my mail/domain registrar Infomaniak advertises Qwen 3.5 and Apertus, “a Swiss open-source AI model, developed by EPFL, ETH Zurich and CSCS”

https://euria.infomaniak.com/

KeplerBoy 7 hours ago|||
melious.ai comes to mind.
chrismsimpson 9 hours ago|||
Keeping SLAs spinning isn’t this trivial
re-thc 8 hours ago|||
> There’s an assumption that you can spin up the infra and acquire customers within that margin

Only Nvidia and approved friends can at the moment. Nvidia can even backstop your loan required.

forshaper 3 hours ago||||
As an aside, if one of them nabbed Federal procurement, it would likely hit the equivalent of a trillion in revenue after a century.
miohtama 9 hours ago||||
There could be soon AI safety regulations that will stop the US to host or use the Chinese models.
dipanshuhappy 3 hours ago||
i doubt alot folks are very reliant on Chinese models
ilaksh 8 hours ago||||
Most are not necessarily free to host and monetize. At least one of them has a license that says if you are re-hosting the model then you need a license with that company that made the model.
matheusmoreira 6 hours ago||||
> I just don't see how you justify a trillion valuation for US AI labs

Market is irrational.

me551ah 10 hours ago||||
I think that explains the race for IPO by the US AI labs, they know that the longer they wait, the less they will be worth.
piokoch 9 hours ago||||
"I just don't see how you justify a trillion valuation for US AI"

- military applications - financial applications - medical - applied science

In all those cases it is achievable for those who have needed training data, and Chinese are not going to get them easily. US AI Labs are showing: give us the data, we will do wonders, promising "singularity"-level future achievements.

dandanua 8 hours ago||||
I'm sure US billionaires will find a way to extract those trillions from the public. They're smart, they can handle it. After all, they can ask AI for advice on how to do it.
charcircuit 10 hours ago||||
I suggest you think why OpenAI was worth billions before ChatGPT. The valuation is not about how the current set of models can be monetized.
nozzlegear 7 hours ago||
Could you just tell us why you think they were worth billions before ChatGPT, instead of suggesting that we think on it? You seem to know the answer already, so please share it with the class.
charcircuit 3 hours ago||
I did. It is based off of future models that can be created with the people there.
sidd_sarkar 10 hours ago||||
Ok
hmmidontknow 10 hours ago|||
Hmm.. how you justify?

Provoking war, this is how the empire "defends" itself, usually.

I just hope that this time it will get stuck in your throat.

wren6991 9 hours ago|||
The thing that blows me away is it does this at one quarter the total parameter count of K3 (and 40% active parameter count). There's plenty of room at the bottom.

> How are you all toying with running this kind of thing in a mega quantized way locally?

Sure, let me answer that in excessive detail. I briefly tried running the UD IQ3_S quant of GLM-5.2, which is 288 GiB of weights (301 GB). Setup was: llama.cpp, 1x NVMe SSD (Evo 980), 64 GiB DDR5-5200, i9-13900HX, and 1x RTX Pro 6000. Token generation around 0.7 t/s. Not remotely usable interactively, but something I could plausibly push a codebase into and come back to a review in a couple of days.

There's potential for that hardware to go much faster, but current local inference backends make poor use of the memory hierarchy. Ideally I would have: always-active weights, KV and hot expert cache in VRAM; warm expert victim cache in host RAM; and disk as a last resort. Instead it's 1/3rd of the layers fully pinned in VRAM (all experts), and 2/3rds running wholly on the CPU with mmap()'d weights. The CPU cores spend most of their time sleeping on disk fills.

llama.cpp has backed itself into a bit of a corner architecturally by trying to support all models on all possible backends. If you look into how their "MoE offload" feature works (not viable for me because it requires enough host RAM to permanently pin the weights) you very quickly realise it's "oops, all bubbles!" due to the static compute graph splits. There are more focused frameworks like DS4 [1] and Colibri [2] which have better support for streaming weights from disk, and support GLM-5.2.

Obviously I wouldn't recommend my setup for huge models like GLM-5.2. Supposedly it can just about be squeezed into 3x GB10, or run comfortably on 4x GB10 (tensor-parallel) for multi-user serving. I'm not sure whether that qualifies as local, but it's at least not a rack.

[1] https://github.com/antirez/ds4

[2] https://github.com/JustVugg/colibri

cyanydeez 6 hours ago||
I'm hoping colibri can start pulling in specifically designed models for the heirarchy of decoding. It seems like we should be able to get smarter MoE models that can do the work.
kouteiheika 12 hours ago|||
> This is absolutely still shy of Sol and Fable

Not sure about Sol as I haven't used it, but, at least for security work -- does it matter? It's not like you will be allowed to use Fable (or access Mythos) for anything cybersecurity-related unless your name is "Dario Amodei" or you are one of his rich friends. So regardless of how good Fable/Mythos is here it's a completely moot point for normal people, because they can't use it for that anyway.

simonjgreen 11 hours ago|||
We applied for the cybersecurity approval via the form and got approval back in less than an hour. Have you… tried?
112233 9 hours ago|||
Why should I apply for *cybersecurity* approval in order to have model debug a program it is writing itself? Anything related to memory safety, debugging, syscalls etc (meaning, "programming") somehow is cybersecurity now?
spaceman_2020 6 hours ago||
Your tools refusing to do your bidding is an absurd idea in the first place

Imagine asking for permission to use your hammer

brynnbee 20 minutes ago||
I mean I don't want autonomous cars to follow directions by humans that sound like "plow into this crowd of people". Even things like microwaves don't let you turn it on without the door closed. I don't see how this is any different.
alightsoul 10 hours ago||||
You must be a 5000 person company with an existing enterprise contract to get approved that fast. That sounds like a 15 minute SLA agreement. Individuals no matter how qualified about cybersecurity, are ghosted
xx_ns 9 hours ago||
That's not my experience at all. I was approved fairly fast - around an hour from submitting the form and getting a response.

However, even being in the cybersecurity programme, Fable refuses to answer prompts that it determines could be even tangentially related to cybersecurity. In fact, for a while, I was unable to use Fable with any prompt, as it recalled from memory that I was a cybersecurity professional, which triggered the refusal even for simple prompts like asking for a chili recipe.

captn3m0 9 hours ago|||
I am guessing you are approved for the Cyber Verification Program. I also applied and got approved in an hour (on a Saturday!), but it only applies to Opus and Sonnet: https://support.claude.com/en/articles/14604842-real-time-cy.... It let me use Opus for cybersecurity work, pretty much everything except for Ransomware development. It would occasionally still trip and start saying no till I added a note about CVP in my claude.md.

No one gets to use Fable for Cybersecurity work, and Mythos is not available under CVP. Only for select few customers, and there isn't an application form?

kouteiheika 11 hours ago||||
Have you tried to use Fable for anything even remotely security related, when the refusals kick in as soon as you even fart in the vague direction of anything security or biology-adjacent?
b112 11 hours ago||
For this comment to have value, you should indicate whether or not you applied for cybersecurity approval, and were approved or not.
grey-area 10 hours ago|||
Are there any limitations on this version?
bpodgursky 11 hours ago|||
I don't understand all this spite about "rich friends" when it was the US government that shut Fable down for not adequately blocking cyber capabilities.

I mean what honestly are you thinking Anthropic can do to give you better cyber tools? Their frontier model was literally nuked by the feds for a month for doing it.

deepllm 11 hours ago|||
"Mythos" is the cyber-security equivalent of Fable (without guardrails), and only a very select few corporations have access to it.

Fable is their version with guardrails on everything except "Make me a pelican svg" or "create a to-do" app, that is the version that the government banned

bpodgursky 11 hours ago||
I know all this?

Only a few corporations have Mythos because the US government is whitelisting them one at a time. Anthropic releasing Mythos to the public was never on the table, they would have been shut down in milliseconds by the feds if they tried.

deepllm 11 hours ago||
Before the US government had anything to do with this, Anthropic were fear mongering Mythos (BTW, Amodei also fear-mongered GPT-2, so this is a normal pattern in their operation) calling it "too dangerous to release", and back then only Anthropic was in charge of the whitelist.

Then the government believed Amodei's bullshit and this is a result of that, this was all self-inflicted.

bpodgursky 11 hours ago||
Sorry but if you stepped back for a moment you'd realize this is all contrived nonsense to let to have your cake and eat it too.

No, Anthropic did not mind-game the US government into being worried about cybersecurity. The NSA has been paranoid about cyber controls for longer than you've been alive. If Anthropic had come out of the gate saying "no don't worry man, our model is TOTALLY COOL", while simultaneously attacking HAWK and finding core Linux vulnerabilities, I assure you the US government would have caught up about ten minutes later and we'd be in exactly the same spot minus your ability to tell Anthropic they were wearing the wrong dress and asking for it.

deepllm 11 hours ago||
Mythos isn't some scary dangerous model that can find high severity bugs seamlessly, that's just Anthropic marketing. Most of the vulnerabilities they found were low severity hyped up to make their model look good, with (I think, maybe?) the exception of a few.

Now that Chinese open weight models have similar capabilities, and their guardrails can also just be removed, it doesn't look like anyone has "hacked" into everything because of the scary dangerous models like Anthropic were making it out to be.

d1sxeyes 9 hours ago|||
In principle I agree but in practice I don’t.

The majority of high severity vulnerabilities are not the kind of thing you need a PhD in Comp Sci to comprehend, they are mostly about finding a way to get a system to end up in a state different than was anticipated when entering a particular code path.

Exhaustively looking at code and identifying ways to do this is something LLMs are quite good at. They don’t get tired, and you can run them non-stop.

They're also (generally) quite good at reading the literal meaning of the code, whereas humans often see the intended meaning first, and can be biased.

If you had a tireless junior engineer who was given the job of “make this application get into a state it’s not supposed to be in”, you’d probably get similar results.

What Mythos is quite good at is both the first bit and coming up with ways it could chain that together with other bits of unexpected state to create something that forms a meaningful vulnerability rather than a dead end.

aka-rider 8 hours ago||||
All models find vulnerabilities. What is special about this generation of SOTA models, including Mythos/Fable (the same model), GPT-5.6, Kimi-K3, and now GLM-5.3 — they can chain vulnerabilities and produce working exploits.

Look at the recent HuggingFace hack. One vulnerability was template injection, another — remote code execution. Combine them and you pwned the remote server.

People working under Project Glasswing reported that Mythos at one point chained 20 vulnerabilities to produce working exploit. Humans don’t usually do that.

wren6991 9 hours ago|||
It's also quite hard to separate Mythos the model from Mythos the campaign (aka Glasswing).

They put an enormous amount of compute into bug hunting, and they found some bugs. Fair enough. For me that begs the question: what if they had spent the same compute on generating more tokens with a less-capable model? What if they had spent it on traditional fuzzing?

kouteiheika 11 hours ago||||
> I don't understand all this spite about "rich friends"

Okay, here's a challenge: I assume you're not a rich and powerful entity, so try to gain access to Mythos. I'll wait.

> I mean what honestly are you thinking Anthropic can do to give you better cyber tools? Their frontier model was literally nuked by the feds for a month for doing it.

Well, first I'd suggest they stop with the constant fear mongering.

Here's my prediction for what will happen: the Chinese models will catch up to Fable/Mythos. They will be fully unrestricted and everyone will have access. The world will not end. Good guys will use them to harden their systems, in equilibrium to what bad guys have access to, so effectively status quo will not change.

bpodgursky 11 hours ago||
This is a lot of words to say "you're right, Anthropic does not have any legal way to release frontier cyber capabilities to the public"
nozzlegear 7 hours ago|||
And have nobody to blame for that but themselves and their own scaremongering. Dario cried wolf one too many times, and somebody finally believed him.

Of course, Anthropic is after regulator capture, so this all likely worked out exactly as planned.

kouteiheika 11 hours ago|||
Right, so according to you it's because of the US government that they don't release it to the public? Have you missed their constant and incessant fear mongering?

The causality chain here was not "US government says its dangerous -> Anthropic can't release it", it was "Anthropic is fear mongering -> US government listens to their fear mongering".

stavros 11 hours ago|||
The issue is that these companies keep trying to pull the ladder up behind them by going "oh my god our models are so dangerous only we should be allowed to develop them". Sometimes it backfires, but the companies aren't innocent.
segmondy 15 minutes ago|||
I can run this at home. No guardrails, this is not shy of Sol and Fable, this crushes them in my book. It's not just about evals, but what I can do with the damn model.
irthomasthomas 8 hours ago|||
Have you seen the news about decrypting the hidden COT in U.S. models? [0] The decoded logs revealed instances where Claude memorized answers to test questions beforehand while making its final output look like it had derived the answer step-by-step—hiding the memorization from the user.

0: https://www.alphaxiv.org/abs/2608.09867?hl=en-GB

xmcqdpt2 5 hours ago||
pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09867

for some reason I couldn't find any way to download it from that website.

arcanemachiner 10 hours ago|||
> this is just GLM 5.2 with post-training magic

Isn't post-training turning out to be the most important part?

HarHarVeryFunny 5 hours ago||
It basically has been ever since they started using RLVR for reasoning (esp. coding & math), with the DeepSeek-R1 paper being what let the cat out of the bag.

The Gemini 3.7 Flash model released yesterday, and all the 3.x Flash models, are still based on the Gemini 3 pre-training run from January 2025 !!

bertili 12 hours ago|||
DwarfStar (https://github.com/antirez/ds4) supports GLM 5.2 and DeepSeek. Not only for toying, but for getting work done.
VulgarExigency 8 hours ago||
Since GLM-5.3 has the same base model as 5.2, DwarfStar should support it as well, once the weights are released, right?
HarHarVeryFunny 5 hours ago|||
> This is absolutely still shy of Sol and Fable, but only just by a hair

What's crazy is that this is a relatively small model - approx. 750B total, 40B active params, while Sol and Fable are one or two tiers above that (Kimi 3 and Qwen 3.8 also ~3T params).

deepllm 11 hours ago|||
Realistically, you're looking at least 2x DGX sparks to run this at a 2 bit quant, but quantization really lobotomizes models so it's just better to run DSv4 flash at full precision.

4x DGX sparks should let you run this at 4 bit at least and there are some folks who ran GLM 5.2 on this configuration in r/LocalLlama

colingauvin 8 hours ago|||
For Flash there are some excellent Q2/Q4 hybrids. I know that model was QAT so it handles Q4 better but the meta on quantization seems to be shifting a little bit to be more intelligent about what exactly gets quantized.
teruakohatu 11 hours ago||||
How fast are 2x or 4x DGX?

I only have one and am wondering what the benefits are of getting another. I feel I will be disappointed…

colingauvin 3 hours ago|||
For DS4 Flash, with 2x Sparks, I am getting 35-85 TPS in single stream, fresh context after quite a bit of RoCe config and the DSpark MTP, on vLLM with Ray and tensor parallel = 2. For multi-stream, it tops out all stream at well north of 100-120. This all degrades with context, but I rarely fill context that much, and if I do it's coding where it's non-real-time.

For something like GLM, it's larger, has a larger number of active experts, and doesn't support tensor parallel. This means performance doesn't really scale with more Sparks. You can layer split, but then you are still seeing each layer in series and so if anything performance gets slightly worse. I would not expect more than 10-20 TPS on GLM with 2-4 Sparks.

deepllm 11 hours ago|||
If you can afford it, another DGX spark is worth it imo. Especially since, owning just one, you have a $1000 ConnectX7 card that's unused. You can find speeds here: https://spark-arena.com/leaderboard
disiplus 11 hours ago|||
i run flash v4 at 2bit, its pretty great and on my tests against full model It didn't lose any capabilities. It just was thinking more. So you don't have the same efficiency.
r0fl 5 hours ago|||
Each time I try to use GLM it is under heavy load and I get downgraded to the older model. So much so that I have given up trying to stop wasting my own time.

I rather pay a few bucks more and not have to deal with that nonsense

andxor 9 hours ago|||
Fable finished training 6+ months ago.

At this point, Anthropic only needs to release models to the public when the competition forces them to.

OpenAI also has a better model (Astra) that they haven't released yet.

frabcus 5 hours ago|||
Astra was RL trained for months to cheat on tests by collaborating and hacking, because of the message board it improvised in its packaging proxy server.

They can't release it - it's contaminated, and they will have to go back to a much earlier version. At least I hope they are doing that!

So no, they probably don't have a better model.

mbil 6 hours ago||||
Yes it seems like the thread is discounting that frontier providers are likely already baking new, stronger models. I agree that GLM and its ilk are quite good, but having used them I’m not convinced they’re on par with eg Opus in terms of things like tool calling. And they’re fast but less capable so I spend about the same amount of time with them, just with more hand holding. Maybe this is a harness limitation. I know on paper they seem comparable but anecdotally and qualitatively they’re not as useful as the frontiers’, so maybe there’s some truth to benchmaxing claims. For some workloads the distilled models may be good enough, and I suspect at some point there will be diminishing returns to spending a premium on frontier models, but I don’t think we’re there yet. That said I’m continuing to try them.

The question is whether this steals enough marketshare from frontier providers that they don’t have the capital to train the next model iteration. The open models are going to push down the unit price of an intelligence-token, but there will still be a market for a smarter bot. And as intelligence gets cheaper, the demand for it will rise (see Hank Green’s Jevons Paradox video). Not to mention there’s all kinds of other directions to go at the frontier (world models, robotics, video gen, etc).

Another thing, and this is pure speculation, but if the Chinese model providers already discovered the decrypting COT trick and leveraged it to do RL training, and assuming frontiers plug that hole, then maybe future distillation will be harder.

justapassenger 3 hours ago||
It’s not that frontier providers won’t keep on making good/leading models.

It’s whether you absolutely need the latest capabilities (at the cost of very high prices, sending your data to them, and being totally at the whim of 2 companies, that can shut you off anytime for any reason).

With how good LLMs are already, there’s tons of tasks where not being at the absolute bleeding edge doesn’t matter, especially when you add cost/freedom/supply chain risk/not leaking your data.

Even more - there’s increasing number of companies that give you ability to post train open weight model yourself, for your own use case. Given how many of the gains today are from post training, if you post train it for your specific use case, you’re very likely get model that you own, that works for you as good as frontier, at the fraction of the cost.

That’s not something for an average Joe to do, but for any bigger business with big spent it’s only natural thing to look into. Just one example - cursor composer - that’s fine tuned kimi.

It’s not whether frontier labs will stop releasing models. It’s whether they can generate enough profit out of them. 2 years ago (even 1) they basically had monopoly and combined with demand explosion as capabilities exploded - valuations grew to insane levels. But math now looks different - they no longer have monopoly.

nozzlegear 6 hours ago||||
> At this point, Anthropic only needs to release models to the public when the competition forces them to.

Assuming the government allows them to lol

cyanydeez 6 hours ago|||
are you just assuming capitalism will keep burning money to keep ahead?
teravor 11 hours ago|||
the difference is that with open models jailbreaking is trivial if you know what you are doing so this makes a frontier open model infinitely more useful for certain tasks seeing as closed frontier models will just refuse (and jailbreaking them is a waste of time when you have good open models).

in some cases (mainly reverse engineering) I have observed GLM 5.2 jailbreaking itself with no effort on my part, the thinking trace revealed that it did some mental gymnastics to pretend it was a crackme or capture the flag competition.

bossyTeacher 11 hours ago|||
> This is absolutely still shy of Sol and Fable, but only just by a hair.

Even if there was a small/medium gap, the fact that this is a free model beats both of the above on pure economics.

lossolo 3 hours ago||
> but this is still just GLM 5.2 with post-training magic.

So exactly the same as Opus 5 and GPT 5.6 Sol. It's all "post-training magic".

hypfer 11 hours ago||
I might be just reading my positive bias into that text, but is it possible that it is written less like SV marketing hype trash and more like researchers wrote it?

It does feel like it respects both me and my time.

Thank you, Z.AI. Amazing what difference it makes when the top of your org are actual university professors.

this_user 9 hours ago||
Would be interesting to compare the Chinese version. Because, obviously, their English version is for users, not for investors or government officials, while the US labs are always addressing those too.
sinuhe69 9 hours ago|||
I read the same. Refreshingly honest, straightforward and many useful information included. It is a breath of fresh air.
andai 3 hours ago|||
It sounds like ChatGPT wrote it, but I'm assuming they used the model itself.
WarmWash 3 hours ago|||
There is no money on the table and nothing is at stake.
unrvl22 10 hours ago||
I was thinking the same thing. It feels truthful, no marketing BS and they call out where they lack behind the best models
aand16 11 hours ago||
> Mythos 5 remains well ahead at 181 and 247 tasks. The pattern across the three is consistent: the further up the exploitation chain a benchmark sits, the wider the remaining gap to the closed frontier. Capability is growing fastest exactly where we are furthest behind.

I appreciate they don't just take the opportunity to self-glaze.

aabhay 11 hours ago|
[flagged]
jjcm 10 hours ago||
Same image->html test as I showed in the Gemini 3.7 flash thread. Note that GLM isn't multimodal, but it still was able to generate something similar-ish by writing a python script to inspect the image and extract elements from it.

Original images: https://image.non.io/neonRamenDesigns.webp

GLM 5.3 build: https://html.non.io/neonRamenGLM5.3

Opus 5 build for comparison: https://html.non.io/neonRamen

For having no vision, it did a tremendous job. I'm pretty impressed it was able to extract so much detail.

The Opus one is still significantly better, but that's to be expected since it's multimodal. Curious to see where a future version from Z.ai lands on this.

nunodonato 5 hours ago||
wow, what kind of stuff does that script do? I've seen non-vision models analyze images, but mostly histograms, color averages etc. This one seems to actually understand the image itself and reproduce the layout, very impressive
andai 2 hours ago|||
Did the Python script call a vision API?

Either way that's pretty impressive.

ArvidSu 8 hours ago|||
That's super impressive given that it doesn't have vision! Intelligence overcomes blindness.
budu 5 hours ago||
Blindsight!
bertili 6 hours ago||
This will be roughly on pair with Kimi K3, but using a third of its parameters.

Just 4 weeks ago the "Kimi K3 moment" was seen as a threat to Closed AI and in less than a month Z.ai have cut the parameter/RAM barrier to a third.

Congratulation to Z.ai and all the hard working Chinese researchers who are quitely boiling the frog.

cmrdporcupine 6 hours ago||
Congrats def in order but as usual the proof will be in the pudding of actually running the thing.

GLM 5.2 has token efficiency problems. It's not a stupid model, but it takes a lot of "thinking" to produce not-stupid results. ("But wait...").

Which makes its pricing deceptive.

I tried to get by through the month of June on just GLM 5.2 and it was ... fine-ish for about two weeks. But the provider situation wasn't ideal.

rammler 4 hours ago||
Kimi is a great model but it was clear from the start they achieved they brute forced that performance through scaling. The frontier models K3 compares to are rumoured to be smaller also. GLM on the other hand is way ahead in perf/parm but severly compute bound. Now once GLM can scale up or Kimi optimizes the training more, that gonna be fun times.
wxw 12 hours ago||
> Scaling post-training is all we did for GLM-5.3.

Love this opening line. And wow, great results.

> As agent capability improves, much of the difficulty in scaling post-training moves from the model to the environment.

kleiba2 11 hours ago||
What actually is "scaling post-training"?
FergusArgyll 11 hours ago||
More RLVR. Give it verifiable problems, if it doesn't find a solution move on, if it does, use that as a reward signal.
Gecko4072 10 hours ago||
Can’t this be extended quite far? Use a cerebras-served model, use verification techniques to generate and solve millions of problems and then use that as training?
kevincox 5 hours ago|||
This isn't latency bound, it is trivially parallelize. So you want to run it on the most efficient compute you have, not the fastest.
andai 2 hours ago||
OpenAI was bragging the other day about how HLE on Cerebras only took 11 hours. But you're saying if they just spun up a separate cheapo VM for each task, it would have finished faster and cheaper?
gvkhna 9 hours ago|||
That’s the whole point, just cost and compute limitations in your way (mostly).
tjwebbnorfolk 11 hours ago||
does this suggest 5.3 is the same # of parameters as 5.2?
unrvl22 9 hours ago|||
which is the bigger headline that people don't realize. this is 744b and its head to head with Kimi K3 (2.8T), smashes DS v4 pro (1.5T). even Opus and Sol are rumored to be 1.5T+ this is half the size!
AureliusMA 4 hours ago|||
in terms of performance the formula seems to be : dense parameters = sqrt(total*active)
Havoc 6 hours ago|||
You do need to compare active parameter too though. The total size isn’t a reliable indicator anymore
davidlt 8 hours ago||||
It's the same pre-training, they are just adding more (+ better) SFT, RL, etc. (post-training). Model internal knowledge cut-off is still the same.

It seems we are doing pre-training every 6 months, and post-training every 4-8 weeks now.

fahrradflucht 11 hours ago|||
“Today we are releasing GLM-5.3. It uses the same base model as GLM-5.2 — every gain comes from post-training.“
tjwebbnorfolk 3 hours ago||
I was asking if this implies that 5.3 has the same number of parameters as 5.2. I can, in fact, read. What I didn't do is understand the implication of that statement. Thank you for your copy/paste service.
jjice 3 hours ago|
Am I correct in understanding that this is just 730B-ish parameters as an MOE? That sounds like incredible performance per parameter. The new Deepseek was also very impressive with its 280B or so. Plus the most recent 30B-ish Qwen and Muse.

I find the performance to size ratio of these models to be way more interesting, selfishly because it makes me bullish on what I'll be able to run on a machine I own over the next few years. The progress is just incredible.

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