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Posted by mlenhard 5 hours ago

The AI Credit Resale Economy(vectoral.com)
178 points | 67 comments
Aurornis 4 hours ago|
The original article linked in the opening has more context https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market

People trading their unused credits feels more genuine, although still in violation of the agreements. The person who got into YC Startup School who was trying to resell the $2500 of credits was interesting. It wouldn’t be that hard for OpenAI to identify the IP addresses of the relays and start flagging accounts, tracing it back to the source. Risking burning your bridges with YC for a relatively small profit is a questionable decision.

The original article showed discounts ranging all the way up to 98%. At those levels it’s obviously not people reselling anything. It’s either sourced from stolen API keys, bought with stolen credit cards, or acquired through automated sign up of trial accounts if you’re actually getting the API you request.

I would expect a lot of them are reselling a different API. Sign up for Anthropic tokens and get Deepseek responses instead.

judge2020 3 hours ago|
Another part of the discount is that Claude Max 20x is $200 but gives usage equivalent to thousands of dollars worth of API-based token spend.

But also, resellers only need to make an overall profit including kickbacks from the companies purchasing token history for distillation.

ffsm8 3 hours ago||
It's also unclear wherever the subscription price is the real cost, or the API.

I suspect it's closer to the sub price and anthropic is just milking their API users, but that's something you'd only know from the inside

drawnwren 1 hour ago|||
Generally speaking, B2B prices are rarely supply-and-demand priced in the usual sense.

YC has advised startups in the past that it's easier to sell a single $100k customer than 100 $1k customers.

It would also be relatively surprising to learn that i.e. the Chinese providers are OOMs better at inference than OAI/Anthropic (like their prices would imply if they were in a perfectly competitive market).

bonoboTP 1 hour ago||
Chinese prices aren't really OOM cheaper. Deepseek recently did a big price hike too.
ronsor 5 minutes ago|||
The one thing I trust is that Chinese prices aren't overinflated. They're almost certainly closer to the actual cost of inference + training amortization than what Western labs are offering.

DeepSeek's price hike is mostly driven by increased demand, for example. It's not about losses so much as they don't have enough infrastructure and need to reduce demand somehow.

drawnwren 1 hour ago|||
Fair, I hadn't looked recently. It looks like currently kimi is either 1/2 or 1/4 Ant pricing depending on whether you think Opus 5 is usable or not. (Deepseek is still an OOM though)
bonoboTP 1 hour ago||||
Costs also have to include the amortized training costs.

But the API price is likely simply regular supply and demand, charging as much as the market will pay. Corporations are dropping insane amounts because it's still peanuts for many industries. Software has just been ridiculously cheap before AI. So high prices are still low for companies if it eases some bottlenecks.

HWR_14 12 minutes ago||
The costs only have to include amortized training costs if you are trying to be profitable overall. Having positive unit economics and VC subsidized fixed costs is pretty standard.
HeatrayEnjoyer 2 hours ago|||
Open weight SOTA models are not greatly cheaper than Anthropic and providers don't have to cover training capex.
vb-8448 3 hours ago||
Wait a sec, I have to trust a third party with basically no reputation, did I get it right?

It's basically asking for being hacked and/or sending you private data to random email addresses! Neither at a 99% discount I'd do it.

I understand if someone, for any reason, cannot access a specific model ... But nowadays, there are so many alternatives that even this doesn't make sense any more.

raincole 2 hours ago||
It's really common in China where OpenAI and Anthropic models are firewalled. There was a joke that Chinese people didn't realize how cheap DeepSeek was, because they already were using resold ChatGPT/Opus tokens at that price.

Here is a more detailed article about how it works:

https://www.chinatalk.media/p/how-to-buy-cheap-claude-tokens...

andai 2 hours ago||
Oh that's interesting, looks like those proxies are probably also selling the data to Chinese AI companies for training.
Aurornis 3 hours ago|||
I expect most of the use to be for bulk data processing or desperate founders who don't care, not for agentic coding use at promising startups.

If your startup needs to run a million records of something, especially public data, through an LLM to extract the data you need, using bootleg tokens to shrink the bill starts feeling tempting.

If you're concerned about the data leaking, the biggest risk is that the API backends are quietly routing your requests to a cheaper model. You might be trying to buy Opus tokens but get Deepseek Flash responses.

vb-8448 3 hours ago||
> to run a million records of something, especially public data, through an LLM to extract the data you need

Maybe this make sense, but anyway I have to pay a lot of attention at the output I get. Eg: who guarantees there is no prompt/sql injection? Especially if I have to load the output in some internal system.

Aurornis 3 hours ago||
Bulk data processing typically has structured JSON output.

I mean someone could try to sneak prompt injection into a text field, but the people buying black market resale tokens from third parties aren’t thinking about anything other than getting cheap output.

segmondy 1 hour ago|||
So what? The world is more trustworthy than you can imagine. I have bought over 30 GPUs over the internet, sight unseen. From around the world and every single one has arrived good. I have also gotten over 20 from marketplace and the same. Use your common sense, from conversation and everything else, you can often separate the scammers from real folks.
charlieyu1 2 hours ago|||
I mean reselling items bought with stolen credit cards have been a thing for at least 20 years
vb-8448 2 hours ago||
I don't risk being hacked if I buy some stuff on vinted.
miroljub 2 hours ago||
I'd rather trust a third party with no reputation than a well known Misanthropic company led by a man whose wife was asking Epstein for investment. They are even less trustworthy then ClosedAI.
nerevarthelame 4 hours ago||
Distillation is one of the most unique and interesting aspects of this.

But otherwise, if a company gives something valuable for creating an account on their platform, expect that people will automate the creation of millions of accounts. If employees of B2B partners get benefits, they will resell them. Accounts will be hacked and resold. The same basic abuse patterns are decades old for online delivery services, loyalty accounts for airline and hotels, etc. There are entire industries dedicated to those spaces as well: large organizations with physical offices, hundreds of employees, HR departments, etc. dedicated to reselling digital benefits on grey markets.

Some companies are tolerant of allowing this to happen. The pessimistic view is that even illegitimate traffic contributes to the KPIs that your investors care about. The slightly less pessimistic view is that fraud prevention will always have trade-offs and false positives, and sometimes the savings of preventing fraud are genuinely outweighed by the false positives. Or maybe it's just Hanlon's razor and they truly never saw it coming.

Sha1rholder 3 hours ago||
This research is way toooo shallow. He really should go check out linux.do or nodeseek.com — token resale economy there is truly breathtaking.

Edit: https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market mentioned in comment.

mlenhard 3 hours ago|
This was specifically meant to be about the ai credit resellers, not the relays themselves. I put together another piece here: https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market that tackles that side of the market.
veganmosfet 4 hours ago||
The reseller could use an intermediate proxy and modify the traffic like in [1], to get control of the client machine - depending on the harness permissions.

TLS terminates at the proxy (say, https://reselltokens.ai), end to end integrity is not enforced. LLM traffic contains tool calls like "bash ...", which are executed on the client machine, they can be manipulated. Secret exfil is also possible.

[1] https://arxiv.org/html/2604.08407v1

rdbell 3 hours ago||
You can place your own CLIProxyAPI instance in front of the reseller proxy and block prompts/responses that look harmful.

There are community plugins like this: https://github.com/rheodev/cpa-plugin-privacyfilter

I haven't tried the plugin system myself yet.

jeffnash 53 minutes ago||
I swear every time I think I have a unique tweak for an OSS tool, it turns out someone else did it. I forked CLIProxyAPI myself to add something similar, though my implementation is closer to a provider-egress DLP layer and it's intended for API keys and the like, not PII. It uses gitleaks but also supports reversible redaction so a secret that's flagged can be replaced with a placeholder before CLIProxyAPI sends the request to the provider and then any instances of that placeholder can be rehydrated in the response to the caller.

Since it modifies logic across the full request/response lifecycle, I unfortunately couldn't implement it cleanly with the existing plugin API.

andai 2 hours ago|||
Nice, he can help fix my Linux Bluetooth audio issues.
MerriBan 3 hours ago||
[flagged]
jeffchuber 2 hours ago||
that one platform is using a flipped chroma logo - chroma has nothing to do with this racket (source : i’m chroma’s ceo)
RALaBarge 3 hours ago||
Most of these are your standard botnet rings. Either accounts directly are taken over, and the attacker adds 2FA or carding rings take stolen #s and attempt to add credits.

It is...incredible how many there are. Stripe does far too little in my opinion to help prevent issues like this, even though they have the business intelligence and enough data to do so.

reticulates 3 hours ago||
A common refrain is that oh there are such great margins on tokens that none of this matters… I wonder how long until that notion will be disavowed? The scale of the tokensnaffling is massive, not just from resale, but also people using multiple subscriptions. The amount of subsidization is only growing, every week it seems like OpenAI and Anthropic are doing “resets” which allow a single $200 subscription to incur $20k+ of usage (if billed at API rates). At some point we must all surely accept that the economics of this do not work.
ralph84 2 hours ago|
Or API rates are their way of doing price discrimination and it's all profitable. Make sure Enterprises(tm) pay the Enterprise(tm) rate, but mop up the rest of the demand too at lower price points. This has been part of the software playbook for decades.
217 2 hours ago||
"My rough estimate is that, across the sites, forums, and resellers I looked at, there are probably tens of millions of these credits being offered." Yeah very useful statemenet it's not like everyone spends hundreds of millions of tokens per day on the 100 or 200$ plan
mlenhard 2 hours ago|
This was poorly worded on my part; I meant in terms of dollars, not tokens.
tantalor 4 hours ago|
There's a lot of assertion here and the other article that this fraud and abuse but is there any evidence of that?

A simpler explanation is that that this is just a resale market.

mlenhard 3 hours ago||
From talking with some of the companies experiencing this, I can confirm that a portion of it is actual credit card fraud. Tokens have become a pseudo-currency, making them a prime target for abuse.

Some of the abuse is more benign, but there is also real fraud through chargebacks, account takeovers, and stolen credit cards.

thunderfork 2 hours ago||
Any situation where you can extract a benefit from a stolen credit card and then sell that benefit before the chargeback renders it moot will have some fraud-based usage.
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