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Posted by tuckerwales 11 hours ago

Calibrate Before You Accelerate: Bias Toward Action in a New Role(tucker.wales)
132 points | 55 comments
edoceo 8 hours ago|
I had a role, we got a new CTO. This man could not stop wiggling things. Almost from day one. Not just small things but larger things too (let's migrate to a new issue tracker/wiki thing (back when Redmine was popular)). Flipping staff to new focus (eg: moved a help-desk staff to top NetAdmin, replacing Cisco Certified guy, which caused some havoc during an audit). What a mess, just had to put his fingerprint on everything!

Another time we got bought, merged into a new company, their CTO was our new CTO. In one of the initial meetings said "things won't change much" and, naturally, we didn't believe. She moved slow on all the things, methodical. Spent some time with each component team. It was months before we started making changes to better mesh with the new company. Very little chaos. Still admire that management style.

jaggederest 5 hours ago|
I think there's a middle ground. I used to be intensely critical of "doing things just to do things." The more perspective I get, the more I realize that, in a situation where things are not going right by whatever criteria you use to determine that (outside scope here), you need to make changes.

The right way to make those changes, or at least one way and I don't know a better one, is to perturb the system and see how it responds. This is necessarily risky and uncomfortable, and choosing the right things to perturb and the magnitude of those peturbations is a very, very tricky skill.

But ultimately if you're dealing with an opaque system, which most companies are, and you want to make it a more transparent system that can change, that risk and discomfort are necessary side effects.

This is of course very situational, and the methodical method is by far preferred, but if you'll permit a metaphor: you get dropped into an unfamiliar cockpit, and the controls are labeled in some foreign language. The plane is crashing, or at least you don't know if it is. What do you do? You wiggle things and hope that, in doing so, you don't crash, and you take very careful note of what happens.

michaelt 5 hours ago|||
> But ultimately if you're dealing with an opaque system, which most companies are,

While most companies have elements that are hard to see clearly [1], I would hope 95% of what the company is doing would be transparent to the CEO.

The CEO should easily be able to tell which divisions/projects are profitable, which are on track to hit their goals, how those goals combine into a coherent strategy, which areas are getting the most complaints and refunds, and so on.

[1] intangible concepts like 'innovation' and 'culture' for example

roenxi 2 hours ago|||
If you can figure out how to turn the "should" in that sentence into "can" then you'll die wealthy. Tracking goals and turning them into a coherent strategy is a major unsolved problem in software engineering.

We accept best-effort from CTOs, but that leads to an industry that is a bit like a comet with a few success stories and a huge burning tail of leadership where they have limited to no ability to understand whether they are on track to achieve their goals and those goals don't come together into a coherent strategy. There is a strong argument that many of the success stories are only good relative to companies that failed even worse than they did and we all had to pick one of these bug-ridden software packages.

It is a lot like the era of the manufacturing industry before the statisticians moved in around WWII. We haven't managed a similar moment in software yet.

tikhonj 3 hours ago||||
You can never understand complex adaptive systems to anywhere near 95%, and leaders believing that they can—that the map is the territory—leads to some pretty bad dynamics.
jaggederest 2 hours ago||
Not just wrong, but confidently wrong! I've done that one myself a couple times too.
jaggederest 5 hours ago|||
Sadly at many companies that's really not true. The CEO has direct visibility into direct reports and those metrics, but those don't necessarily clearly indicate what changes to the system would do. Largely because they're descriptive, not predictive, in my limited experience. They also tend to be lagging or current indicators, so they tell you what policy was doing last quarter. If those metrics are trending badly, you can't just demand "move X number up" and expect any success.
jmcgough 1 hour ago||||
This might be appropriate in some cases, but it's important to consider that you have a finite amount of social capital as a new leader. Once people get sick of poorly thought-out changes it can be hard to keep changing things and get buy-in, and talented employees (who almost always have someone asking to hire them) can be the first to leave.

I'm a fan of Chesterton's Fence [1]. Put effort into understanding the organization and why it's architected the way it is before making changes.

[1] https://www.lesswrong.com/w/chesterton-s-fence

tracerbulletx 5 hours ago|||
A great philosophy for anyone who is pretending to know what they're doing that will still result in the plane crashing because you need to know how to fly a plane to fly a plane, and you need to know how to run a business to run a business.
jaggederest 4 hours ago||
On the other hand, because you've run business A, doesn't mean you have a clue how business B is actually working. I've seen that one more than a few times too.

Sometimes the plane is going to crash and the best you can do is a soft landing.

arnorhs 7 hours ago||
This article is highly AI generated. The first paragraph is probably not AI generated, but the rest is definitely.

I also double checked on gptzero me and it 100% agrees with me.

I'm curious to know though whether or not the "author" used Gemini. I've been using Gemini a lot in the past year, and the writing sounds exactly like Gemini. But it's possible that all the models sound the same.

Edit: I'd like to add that I still liked the article and agree with it, and in general I find Gemini's writing style to be quite enjoyable.

userbinator 4 minutes ago||
The title was already a clue that it's AI-generated, and it only gets worse...

The first paragraph is probably not AI generated

"A bias toward action is a superpower only when applied correctly - here's how to frame it as moving decisively after building context, not rushing in before you have it."

...followed by many, many bloated words that can basically be summed up in two words of old Internet lore: LURK MOAR

I agree with the article too, but I didn't have to read that many words to know. "Don't just start doing things because you want to show off, and understand what value you're providing" is how I'd phrase it.

massysett 1 hour ago|||
I don’t see why it is interesting to claim that a piece is AI generated, especially in light of the concession in your last paragraph that you liked the article.

AI is a tool. It outputs things only when asked to. Asking it requires skill. Saying “This is AI generated” is like pointing at furniture and saying that “power tools were used to build that” or at a program and saying “that’s not assembly, a modern garbage-collected language was used to build that” or at a meal and saying “this was cooked in a kitchen with a modern temperature-controlled oven” or at a paper and saying “this was obviously typeset in LaTeX, not roff or plain TeX.”

So what? Give me a shop full of power tools and I can’t build any furniture, give me Python and a bunch of libraries and I can’t write Mercurial, and give me any LLM and I couldn’t have written this piece.

Does the conceit come from the idea of “some LLM wrote this, so anyone could”? This is like walking through a modern art museum and seeing some obvious-looking piece and saying “I could have done that.” Well, you didn’t.

nzeid 6 hours ago|||
Definitely stinks of LLM phrasing, metering, and punctuation. But I'd say the ideas are the author's alone and they do cut through.
a2ff6eeb0 2 hours ago||
How do you know? I think LLMs are more than advanced enough to come up with this text.

In fact, I think they've got so much more management in their training set than a senior engineer that I expect they're going to be a better source of material than the author.

travisd 4 hours ago|||
The AI generated images are classic slop to the point of being actively distracting.
jihadjihad 4 hours ago||
The images are awesome, in an “I cannot believe someone would upload this to their site” kind of way.

The blueprint with the “LOAD-BEARING WALL!!!” includes nonsensical labels like “Dining Broom” and “Witchen”, and I am supremely disappointed that there isn’t a bubbling cauldron or pointed hat to be found.

tuckerwales 4 hours ago||
My hand drawn images would be far worse!
udfalkso 1 hour ago|||
Who cares!
danielmarkbruce 7 hours ago||
I think this comment is AI generated.
emil-lp 9 hours ago||
Cannot cite Chesterton's fence too often.

In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, "I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away." To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: "If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it."

— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_...

Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38653711

throw8484949ii 9 hours ago||
> a fence or gate erected across a road.

Except in many cases it is your responsibility to ask. If something has indefined legal status, and no documentation, it is a major red flag. Very often corruption, drug or people trafficking or other shady stuff.

If you want gate in middle of the public road, show the paperwork! Or I will call authorities!

saghm 9 hours ago|||
The responsibility to ask is literally the point of Chesterton's fence in my mind; when something looks out of place, and you think it doesn't make sense, you need to ask and learn about it. Sometimes the fence genuinely is unnecessary, and you can then proceed to dismantle it, but other times it might be useful for surprising reasons; it might be a mitigation for an issue that would require a much more time-consuming fix; and it might sometimes genuinely be unnecessary. The point of finding out this information is that the correct action is different for each of them; taking down the fence is fine if it's genuinely useless, and leaving it alone is necessary if it's genuinely useful for reasons you didn't anticipate. In the middle ground where there's a better solution that would take more time, the correct action depends on the answer to a follow-up: is replacing the fence the most important use of my time right now? I've experienced all three of these situations before (and both possible answers to the follow-up in the third case), so I've found this framework helpful for how to deal with the fences when I come across them.
hinkley 8 hours ago||||
How you ask the question matters just as much as whether you should ask it. Impressionable ears are everywhere and asking 'is there icecream in the house?' means that everyone is about to get a bowl or be upset.
lazyasciiart 9 hours ago|||
Yes, Chesterton clearly hadn’t started working at a job where he was responsible for the security or accuracy of a process. “Then Marge calculates the late penalties by hand and enters them into the system? It’s fine, she … has a method?Really?”
hinkley 8 hours ago|||
Chesterton was talking about politics (public policy). And 'responsible for security or accuracy' well, have you heard of politics? If you haven't, don't look it up, it will just depress you.
wat10000 3 hours ago|||
The point Chesterton is making isn’t that you leave everything alone. It’s just that you find out why something is there before you take it out. Find out my Marge calculates the penalties by hand. You may find that the program gets it wrong, in which case taking her out of the process would be a disaster unless you fix the underlying problem first. Or you may find that it’s completely pointless and you can go straight to using the automation. It’s not that you ignore it and leave it forever, just that you find out what’s going on before you start taking the axe to things.
NoItsDanger 8 hours ago||
I’ve always liked Chesterton’s Fire.

Maybe there’s a reason you’re on fire. Until you can say for sure, I will not put it out.

I will just be here roasting these marshmallows on your burning flesh. :)

gwerbin 7 hours ago|||
What a ridiculous misrepresentation of the principle. In fact isn't that a good illustration of the principle? The fence is just sitting there, maybe it's annoying or slows you down but it isn't actually an acute problem or an emergency. All the more reason to not just rip it out without taking the time to understand why it's there.
nswango 6 hours ago|||
My version was Chesterton's Facehugger.

Something which, as soon as you discover it, you should immediately respond by trying to remove it, without asking questions about where it came from or what its purpose might be.

gwerbin 22 minutes ago||
Do you have a real practical example of this? I have never encountered a real one that didn't turn out to be a fence in hindsight.
ChrisMarshallNY 7 hours ago||
Sort of the antithesis of "Move fast and break things." I find it quite reasonable, but also despair that this advice even needs to be given. It's just basic "horse sense."

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/a5/b3/10/a5b31033a487595f913639c35...

pm90 7 hours ago||
Solid article. Its worth calling out one thing thats maybe not emphasized enough though: while your contributions may start small make sure to publicize them appropriately. No need to cross post to every channel, but do post about it somewhere or socialize it somehow. Take a lot of time to craft a thoughtful and easy to read message.

Reputations are hard to earn and easy to destroy. Trust building at any new institution takes a lot of time and effort and can seem annoying. But just doing solid work and communicating about it consistently will make sure that like minded people notice you, vouch for you and then give you more opportunities.

jedberg 2 hours ago||
My last few jobs I started with a listening tour. I talked to everyone who was relevant to the job and asked them:

- what is going well,

- what is not going well

-what do hope that I will fix

-what should I do

-what should I not do

I put those question in the agenda for the meeting invite so they could come prepared. Then we took the conversation from there.

I put it all into a google doc, then synthesized it into summary that hid the identities of the people who said it and used it as my guide for the first few months.

danpalmer 6 hours ago||
There's one caveat to this – I think it's good to have bias to other people's actions early on in a new role. Taking on little projects that are already understood, taking on cleanups, things other people aren't volunteering for, is all a great way to find where some of the bodies are buried, understand how the team works, and prove yourself as a team player.
jgable 10 hours ago||
OT: This is the first time in a while that I’ve seen the phrase “load-bearing” used in a natural way. :-)
sillysaurusx 7 hours ago||
Is it natural? It immediately made me suspect AI, if for no other reason than every human is avoiding it now so they’re not confused with AI.

Props to the author if they simply don’t care though.

pram 7 hours ago||
FWIW I've been saying it in a sarcastic way since I was in my teens because of the Simpsons where Bart says "It's a load bearing poster." I assume if anyone uses the phrase (that isn't like a civil engineer) it probably came from here lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRVExJZKIT8
simianwords 7 hours ago||
Pangram says 100% AI generated.
el_benhameen 9 hours ago||
Thoughtful and to the point, I like it. I’m curious how long this process takes others. I’m in a new role for the first time in a while and trying to find the right balance between ramping up quickly and taking enough time for deeper learning.
chanux 2 hours ago|
I wish there was a repository of stories about new managers changing things, ruining everything and leaving in 2 years.
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