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Posted by ptrhvns 2 hours ago

True Rate of Unemployment(www.lisep.org)
83 points | 25 comments
runako 38 minutes ago|
Anybody who believes ~30% of the workforce was functionally unemployed in 1999 does not know what those words mean, or was not an adult in 1999.

I get what they are trying to convey, but the stronger message is the more straightforward: there are too many jobs that do not pay enough to live on.

xbmcuser 28 minutes ago||
For me the true problem which most countries dont even acknowledge is low wealth and capital gains tax. Salaries are not enough because of land prices and the prices inflation it causes through out the economy. You bring down price of home land rent then price of everything else comes down. And their is a lot more economic activity as trillions of dollars are not parked in real estate for wealth generation.
jaredklewis 6 minutes ago|||
A land value tax would fix rich people parking money in real estate. A wealth tax or capital gains tax would not.
ryan_lane 2 minutes ago||
If a land value tax would fix rich people from parking money in real estate, it would price regular people out of real estate.

I know LVT is the libertarian dream, but in practice it means only the rich can own real estate long-term, in most cities. It also means the rich can drive out the poor by driving up land values around them, to the point where the taxes are too much to afford.

LVT simply wouldn't be a good system, if applied in the real world.

lkirkwood 11 minutes ago||||
Is capital gains / wealth tax a fix here though? Definitely not saying it doesn't work, I have no idea. But I'd be curious to hear both sides of the argument.
sandworm101 11 minutes ago|||
Or you tax it. Or, more correctly, you remove the current protections that allow land to appreciate tax-free for decades. That would move capital out of land and free it for other uses. The current system was designed to put money/people into houses post WWII but has gone too far in promoting radical multi-generational wealth structures.

We already assess property each year for purposes of local property taxes. Treating a 10% rise in value as taxable income each year would shake up the real estate market. Speculative gentrification would certainly stop. And those sitting on empty houses would either sell or try to find renters.

seibelj 29 minutes ago||
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ElProlactin 45 minutes ago||
> ...or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes.

I couldn't easily tell how they decided on a $26,000 "living wage" figure but in most of the US, even double that is not Easy Street.

The "True Rate of Barely Getting By" is ridiculously high in the US from what I can gather.

BLKNSLVR 20 minutes ago||
Might need to change the labelling from 'living' wage to 'surviving' wage.
bpodgursky 5 minutes ago||
This number is before transfers, you really cannot just look at the raw income. A family of 2 adult 2 kid making $22,500 in raw income makes more like $48,700 after refundable tax credits, SNAP, housing, etc [1].

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+us+income+including+...

rio517 5 minutes ago||
While I struggle to see the value here, I dont trust the official numbers and applaud their efforts to come up with alternatives.

However, I fear they conflate "living wage" with desire for full time work in this metric. It also seem to so closely track the official unemployment rate as to not be useful.

Also, as others states, 26k is a surprisingly low number to be called a living wage. I think that number also varies depending on household make up, but I can see why they skipped that complexity.

zkmon 24 minutes ago||
> the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job ...

What is the "U.S. labor force" defined as? Is it a age group thing?

hirako2000 16 minutes ago|
It is typically who is able to be part of the labour force.

remove the elderly, those for who it would be illegal to work or still engaged in formal education, the so significantly handicapped no work is manageable.

So it is an age group, with caveats.

RachelF 32 minutes ago||
Similar statistics for Australia: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10192-australian-unemploy...

It all depends on the definition of "Unemployment". Most governments do not count you as unemployed if you've stopped looking for work, been unemployed for over 6 months, or if you made $25 as an Uber driver for 1 hour's work that month.

marcus_holmes 1 minute ago|
Thanks, this is interesting.

Folks I've been talking to see a huge hit coming for us. Mining is getting automated (and coal/gas have huge problems). Education is getting hit by AI. Agriculture is good but employs relatively few people. Property is and always has been a zero-sum game that soaks up capital but doesn't return anything. Construction is getting pulled into building data centres for US hyperscalers.

We don't seem to be able to differentiate our economy away from resources at all - every attempt to do this (Turnbull's Ideas Boom being the classic) has failed.

It's looking pretty bleak for the Lucky Country.

wxw 34 minutes ago||
> the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes

Seems like reasonable criteria. "Regular" unemployment is

# unemployed/# employed

where unemployed is they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available to work. But not much criteria in terms of what work people are finding.

j16sdiz 15 minutes ago||
Looking at the "True Rate" vs "Headline Rate" graph.... The "Headline Rate" seems to be a good proxy for the "True Rate".

As long as we are not comparing them in the absolute term, what's the problem?

riffraff 10 minutes ago|
an unemployment rate of about 3-4% is considered "full employment" aka "we're good".

If you switch the perspective to this other rates it shows there's a lot of work to do to reach "true full employment".

skybrian 1 hour ago||
I see some odd effects. I wonder how these would be explained?

According to the headline rate, unemployment was about the same in 1995. According to this alternative measure of unemployment, it's gone down by around 8% overall.

When split by race, it's gone down the most for Hispanics.

By education, it's gone down the most for people who didn't complete High School.

xeromal 47 minutes ago||
Just a guess but gig work might be picking up some of that slack?
SpicyLemonZest 39 minutes ago||
State level minimum wages were much less common in 1995, so it was easier for workers to be below their poverty threshold. Even though the federal wage got stuck, in many states today, the minimum wage is high enough that it's not possible for a full time worker to make less than $26,000 in a year.
SpicyLemonZest 42 minutes ago|
This definition sounds like U-6 unemployment (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE) with an additional term for people making below a living wage. That's better constructed than most of these "real stats" I see, so I hate to be too critical. But they don't really engage with the important question of whether this metric is sufficiently robust for policymakers to use. Just eyeballing it, it seems to be quite a bit more volatile than the headline rate; if the Fed tried to target it, for example, would they end up doing a bunch of unnecessary rate cuts to stave off unemployment spikes that aren't real?
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