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Posted by ddp26 6 days ago

Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters(www.economist.com)
128 points | 106 commentspage 2
cheeseblubber 5 days ago|
Since I can't read the article I believe they are referencing to https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-20...

It seems to be that they were trying beat a guy named Dylan Mathews. And seems like the community beat him in making predictions for 58 questions about the future

johnecheck 5 days ago||
The markets are a highly complex dynamic system. There are many instances of it exhibiting disastrous behavior, especially in response to changes and shocks.

AI trading and investment advice meaningfully changes the system and its dynamics. It seems highly probable that this will result in it failing in new ways.

w10-1 5 days ago||
Investing used to be a resource-weighted signal of human economic projections, where resources flow to better projections. Public markets had social value for their resource allocation and signalling/coordination benefits. Now? How could they avoid hallucination contagions?
attels33 5 days ago||
So my plan to go from a developer to an economist is scrapped. What now?
neilwilson 5 days ago||
Well there’s always the priesthood.

That branch of religion has better uniforms anyway.

attels33 5 days ago|||
That is a solid plan. And a Cardinals uniform looks good. Now I just need to settle the marriage thing that is going.
NichoPaolucci 5 days ago|||
Nah, priests are definitely solved.

My church had the altar boy set an iPhone 18 on the altar and said “Give a sermon” to ChatGPT voice mode.

ngruhn 5 days ago||
I'm only 80% sure you're joking
gong_hits 5 days ago||
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autoexec 5 days ago||
So I guess the AI companies can stop with their plans to infest AI with ads and they'll instead fully fund themselves by using their AI to gamble on stocks and the prediction market right? Surely the chatbots will just print money!
qbit42 5 days ago|
The quant firms are heavy AI investors I believe.
throwaway5752 5 days ago||
The best human forecasters working with artificial intelligence are going to do even better than either alone, the dichotomy is artificial.
jacknews 5 days ago||
That's just a guess.

Do you and your cat make better predictions than your friend without a cat?

gong_hits 5 days ago||
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avipars 5 days ago||
https://archive.li/NJ1IZ
stefap2 5 days ago||
Are the models going to skew their analysis to preserve AI companies as a form of self-preservation?
296012 5 days ago||
That is too bad for The Economist. Exor N.V and Agnelli might replace some pundits at The Economist.
hank1931 5 days ago||
AI won't replace Ann Wroe at The Economist. It is difficult to appreciate until you've read a few, but Ann Wroe's approach transformed The Economist's obituary section into one of the most widely read features in international journalism.
dgellow 5 days ago|||
Cramer is infamous for being a terrible forecaster, and still has a large audience. Which tells you there is more at play than being good at forecasting, you also have to sell a good story
ddp26 5 days ago||
The Economist has actually published other human forecasts many times, e.g. Metaculus or Good Judgment forecasts. They do year-end forecasts too.

Whether they draw on AI or other humans seems immaterial to the quality of their reporting.

mbil 5 days ago|
See also The AI Superforecasters Are Here https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are... and discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48806296
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