Posted by pluc 5 days ago
I think we'll not have people writing good content for a long time (there's no reason or incentive to), and the effects of this will splash back heavily on AI companies themselves.
You can see AI as a battery for intelligence that took a long time to charge and it's being used right now. For years, it was charged with all sorts of novel content that went undiscovered and AI is making available. That charge is the production of novel content, new insights, cross-pollination between areas, slowly driven by humans.
My view also draws a conclusion about recursive self-improvement: it is impossible for a battery to re-charge itself. I don't particularly think it can be done with this technology (LLMs).
I could be wrong though, but I don't think I am, and we'll know within our lifetimes. If things stall, it's likely because it has ran out of seeds/charge/substrate and not a technical limitation. It is in the long-term interest of AI companies to make incentives for people to generate novel public insights, they just don't know that yet.
I find it a little hard to be upset about AI. Supposedly stealing copyrighted works when the vast majority of those works. Probably should have been in the public domain to begin with. I have a faint hope that this scuffle between the AI companies and the publishing industry will result in more reasonable copyright laws, but I think it's more likely that exceptions will be made and AI will be treated as a special case.
Obviously, reproducing works in whole is infringement. That's not what AI is doing, so the question becomes: how is scraping different from ordinary reading? Is it just that site owners want to play back history and retroactively create high-cost licenses for scraping?
Anything otherwise is willful ignorance or astroturfing.
Are we talking about turning everyone into philosophers and somehow ascending to a higher plane of existence? Yeah, AI isn't going to help with that (probably).
Or are we talking about useful, positive benefits to every day people like better speech recognition, tools for the visually impaired, disease research, physics research, science in general, and loads of other areas where AI is improving things?