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Posted by 1vuio0pswjnm7 1 day ago

AI chatbots give wrong answers to financial queries 'most of the time'(www.ft.com)
154 points | 88 comments
2dvisio 1 day ago|
https://archive.is/WD6Vy
ehe78qhe 1 day ago||
Article is just a vague summary of https://www.saturnos.com/report/artificial-authority

Anecdotally, current models seem to be decent at general personal finance principles - certainly better than the majority of personal finance education that people get exposed to unless they seek it out and read a variety of books and sources. But I wouldn't trust them with direct decision making with actual money due to the training lag time on current tax policy, etc.

NitpickLawyer 1 day ago||
> certainly better than the majority of personal finance education that people get exposed to unless they seek it out and read a variety of books and sources.

Also, models are now good enough that you can give them chapters from "authoritative" books, and they'll integrate that and come up with better answers even if their "vanilla" answers were average. And they'll tailor stuff to your particular situation. It's funny that the "agentic" stuff is only used in coding mostly, while it can and does work in other fields as well.

As always, you kinda need to check it (at least spot check) but all in all I'd agree it's better than the average stuff you used to find with a quick google search.

legostormtroopr 1 day ago||
So if you know a book that has the information you need, you just need to upload it into the model to get the right answer.

Isn't that a bit circular - if you already know the authoritative source, why ask a model?

Calazon 1 day ago|||
Because it's faster.

I've done this on different topics - I know the answer is in a particular eBook/PDF/document, but for whatever reason it's not trivial to look it up. The model can do it a lot more quickly than I can, and then I can still verify the accuracy.

ImaCake 1 day ago||
Depends on the harness too. The MS copilot 365 chat interface happens to parse PDF and docx files before handing them to the model. Absolutely fantastic if your PDF is 1300 pages of concatenated reports and you want to find a single detail in it that you can't easily ctrl+f for.
theshrike79 1 day ago||||
It's basically a fancy context aware ctrl-f to the book.

I use this regularly with RPG manuals. I _know_ the stuff, but don't remember every detail by heart. And just ctrl-f:ing through a Mörk/Pirate Borg -style PDF isn't really productive (they're "artistically" laid out). But I can just ask an AI bot that has the pdf indexed like "how does the medical kit work?" and it'll give me a summary along with the relevant rolls within seconds.

LorenPechtel 19 hours ago||
Is there any local version of an AI that can do this sort of thing?
theshrike79 7 hours ago||
Most likely about three billion - all vibe coded and most of them with super pretty domain names and launch pages :D

The only complicated bit is the PDF indexing. I would personally suggest using a proper cloud model in a massive datacenter to do it if the source is even a bit fuzzy. (lots of tables, fancy layouts etc). A "normal" PDF can just be converted to markdown in seconds.

After that the local stuff can be managed by any local model that has a tool to use bash or read files.

I have a Discord bot that can ingest a RPG PDF and stores it in a sqlite vector database for search, took me maybe an evening to build it with Claude.

tygon 22 hours ago||||
Why use a bulldozer to push down a mound of dirt when you can do the same with a shovel? It is faster, easier, and less prone to giving you back pain. Even assuming you are only reading the section of the book related to your issue, a computer works a fair bit faster.
lconnell962 1 day ago|||
Some of the more widely spread and tolerated LLM outputs seem to be AI slop replacing Journalism/Blog slop. Places where people complained about quality already, but tolerated it if important enough.

So to name some of the more common ones Translation, Summarization, and Reiteration of a source material.

Humans put spin on things, how much you trust a source might not reflect the source's factual accuracy. It might just mean you liked reading it better from one source than another.

FearNotDaniel 1 day ago|||
Important to note is that what is being measured here is the ability of the models not of the chat tools themselves, which combine model completions with other tools that the models can call upon. The mainstream labs already know this about models, it's no secret, and in fact training materials from e.g. Anthropic are at pains to point out that users, or analysts designing workflows, have the reponsibility to ensure the correct tools are used and that human verification takes place at appropriate stages depending on the risk/consequences of the task at hand.

Of course a language-completion model with a training cutoff date won't have up-to-date information on tax rules or the ability to carry out correct numerical calculations, but when you combine that with (in Claude terminology) web search and code execution tools invoked by the chat agent, you immediately have much more reliable results.

ehe78qhe 1 day ago||
I keep finding that the current harnesses, when encountering syntax that was invalid at training time but is now valid due to new language versions or custom extensions, don't correctly figure out why and assume something is wrong with the codebase or toolchain. I would hate to have that happen with my taxes.
htrp 1 day ago|||
I guess the question becomes, how much of this is harness versus model?
AnimalMuppet 23 hours ago||
Well, lag time against current tax law is definitely model.
johnnienaked 1 day ago||
It has very little to do with lag time on tax policy
ozgung 1 day ago||
This will be the same story for every industry again and again. AI is not good in x=Finance because models were not RL trained heavily on x=Finance capabilities yet. This is only because Big Labs have finance benchmarks lower in their priority list. Their first priority was solving programming because that gives the best leverage at this stage. As a side-effect they were able to solve a Millennium Prize problem, since theorem proving was also code.

So finance advisors in the comments section of FT are falling for the classical pitfall. They assume there is something fundamentally wrong with “AI chatbots” that they can’t do finance ever. They mistake the current products in the market for the technology itself. In near future someone will release “Claude x=Finance” and their world will shatter.

anfogoat 1 day ago||
> AI is not good in x=Finance because models were not RL trained heavily on x=Finance capabilities yet.

Not sure what the "financial queries" here amounted to but I find it hard to believe LLMs will ever be to finance what they are to programming. Past a point, information related to the former is gatekeeped behind private institutions with special government granted privileges, while information related to the latter is freely available and open to anyone.

ImaCake 1 day ago||
Plenty of code is not publically available, and yet that has not stopped them from RLHF'ing good coding bots. You can surely see the parallels to any other field including finance.
shim__ 1 day ago||
Lots of bad(internal) code isn't accessible, the good open source stuff is quite the contrary is true in finance, lots of amateurs are sharing their thoughts where as actual deep analysis is kept to internal presentations.
otabdeveloper4 1 day ago||
Programming hasn't been solved by LLMs. AI chatbots give wrong answers to programming queries most of the time too.
qgin 1 day ago|||
Not most of the time
johnnienaked 1 day ago||
More often than it's worth most of the time
high_na_euv 1 day ago|||
Not really

I do find them useful when querying like "how todo xyz in abc"

lukeify 1 day ago||
Given most financial advisors tend to vend out suboptimal advice and steer customers in favour of products they receive a kickback for, I'm happy to be accepting of an unbiased LLM that's trained on bogleheads.org.
in_absentia 1 day ago||
If that's what you want, I'll save you some tokens:

#!/bin/sh

while read question; do echo "Put it into VFIAX"; done

ehe78qhe 1 day ago|||
This is missing a lot of steps like:

- Building an emergency fund

- Budgeting and tracking where your money goes

- Planning and saving for large purchases like cars, homes and life goals

- Optimizing use of tax-advantaged accounts like 401Ks, HSAs, and IRAs

- What to do with ESPPs, RSUs, and options

- How taxes work and how to optimize around them

- Estate planning

red-iron-pine 20 hours ago||
yeah but most of that is 1) covered by bogleheads, and 2) doesn't require serious education or advisors.

take emergency funds -- how likely is it you can lean on friends or fam for money? do your budgeting and then plan for 6-12 months of budget. if you can get a load from the bank of mom and dad then maybe 3 months.

ehe78qhe 4 hours ago||
You are vastly overestimating the financial literacy of the average american

I regularly explain to friends:

- how interest works on their credit card

- that buying a used car is usually far cheaper than leasing or financing a new one

- what inflation is

- what an RSU is (to people who indiscriminately call all equity "options")

- what capital gains tax is

- how to buy index funds (as in, the steps to sign up for vanguard or whereever and buy funds)

- what settlement is

infamously, a lot of americans don't understand progressive tax brackets and assume that if they get a raise they'll lose it all to taxes

I have heard friends claim that paying 50% tax on income is normal

koito17 1 day ago||||
There's quite a few implicit assumptions in that.

In my case, I am double-taxed (both Japan and US side) on capital gains. Tax treaties reduce, but not eliminate, the extent of double-taxation.

Many US-based brokers do not allow Americans abroad to purchase mutual funds, so VFIAX is not a choice for me.

Maybe I can go with eMAXIS Slim All Country... Oh, but that is a PFIC under IRS rules and I'd be taxed on unrealized capital gains. So I guess no Japan-equivalents of VT for me. That's fine, I guess I'll just buy VT in my US-based brokerage account; but now I'm in a suboptimal spot with respect to monthly contributions, calculating JPY-denominated income tax on dividends, etc.

I even made an implicit assumption when I said "calculating JPY-denominated income tax on dividends". That assumes your tax status is permanent resident. If your tax status is non-permanent resident, then a decent financial advisor will recognize that only the extent of income remitted to Japan gets taxed, so VT distributing at all isn't an issue (until 5 years later). What should you do before the 5 year threshold is hit? etc. etc.

But yes, if you're born in America and plan to stay within the same state for the rest of your life, then a 100% automated setup that simply deposits $1,000/mo into VFIAX is probably fine. (But keep in mind, to most non-Americans, VOO is not really diversified compared to funds like VT).

Otherwise, there is value in consulting someone (or something) that regularly handles taxes and financial planning.

Propelloni 1 day ago||
Full agreement. I'm double-taxed in Germany and the US. I don't have a residency in the US (so I cannot vote but still get taxed, nice!) so I'm completely unable to buy VFIAX or any other fund from the US. I cannot but them over an EU brokerage, either, because US ETF and its ilk violate European transparency laws. I can buy EU-domiciled funds, but those are treated as PFIC in the US with prohibitive taxation. I relegated myself to an old-school dividend growth investment scheme and it's financially working out much better than I anticipated but still, I'd like to have a core of a stupid ACWI tracker.
red-iron-pine 20 hours ago||
> I relegated myself to an old-school dividend growth investment scheme and it's financially working out much better than I anticipated but still, I'd like to have a core of a stupid ACWI tracker.

roughly same approach in Canada, for the same reasons.

if you look up most of the dividend aristocrat funds they'll give a breakdown of holdings... so duplicate those in roughly the same ratio (to the best you can) and call it a day

chasil 1 day ago||||
While I also practice Bogle's approach from The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, even with this baseline there are some subtleties.

-VFIAX is currently $707/share. Fidelity's FXAIX does not have to be purchased in increments of a share price, and this fund's expenses are lower.

-There are versions of the S&P 500 for taxable accounts that minimize capital gains.

-Vanguard has a total-market index, VTSAX, that is mentioned in the book.

-Vanguard also has a non-U.S. total market fund, VTIAX, that avoid the current CAPE problems of the U.S. market.

Claude is very familiar with Bogle's approach, likely because the pirated book was part of the training set.

sokoloff 1 day ago||
Though you don’t directly say it, your comment strongly implies that you can’t buy fractional shares of $VFIAX. (You can, same as $FXAIX, $VTSAX, etc.)
schnitzelstoat 1 day ago||||
It depends though - I'm not in the US and in my country ETFs get taxed continually whereas mutual funds don't get taxed until you sell.

In general, invest in low-cost index funds is pretty solid advice everywhere. In different countries you might use slightly different instruments due to tax advantages (like the ISA in the UK etc.)

IshKebab 1 day ago|||
Some people do have complex financial situations. It's not as simple as that.

For example in the UK (and maybe US?) you get tax relief for money you put into your pensions, but there's a limit of £60k/year. Unless you earn a lot (which I do, yeay) when that limit is tapered. Except that you can also use up to 3 years of previously unused allowance. But you have to use this year's first.

Also interest is taxed, but you can put up to £20k/year into an ISA which isn't. And if you still want to avoid some tax you have kids ISA's and even pensions!

Then there are also startup investment schemes that save you some tax. Those seem to be not worth it, but you get the idea - it can be complicated. Especially if you are near one of the many tax/benefit thresholds.

The marginal tax rate in the UK bounces all over the place - it's even technically possible for it to be over 100%!

derwiki 1 day ago|||
That’s why it’s important to get a Fiduciary Financial Advisor who does not get kickbacks based on fund choices.
AnimalMuppet 23 hours ago||
How long before at least one model is steering customers toward products that it receives a kickback for?
lukeify 19 hours ago||
Yeah that's a good point. Bring on open weight models.
qarl 1 day ago||
Each year I have Claude do my taxes (which are complex) and compare them to those of our tax consultant.

Each year it's exactly the same.

I guess I'm getting really lucky?

pylua 15 hours ago||
Your tax consultants name is Claude ?
rsynnott 23 hours ago|||
Maybe your tax consultant is also using Claude :)
qarl 21 hours ago||
You make a compelling argument. :)
johnnienaked 1 day ago||
Or you have extremely simple taxes
qarl 1 day ago||
> (which are complex)

EDIT: Why am I being downvoted? I already stated in my original comment that my taxes are not simple, they are complex. Is he accusing me of lying? Why would I lie there if I could just make the whole thing up? I don't get it.

johnnienaked 21 hours ago||
My apologies, I didn't see that
01100011 1 day ago||
Single shot or with reasoning enabled? My experience is that reasoning dramatically reduces hallucinations and improves output quality. I don't trust models without it.
wonnage 1 day ago|
> Overall, the best-performing model was Claude Opus 5 on “reasoning” mode, which still made mistakes in 39 per cent of answers.
FinnLobsien 1 day ago||
The problem with LLMs in finance is the same as it is in writing, design, and many other disciplines: it isn’t code.

Code objectively does what it‘s intended to do or it doesn’t (and passes certain tests or not) which gives coding agents an indication on whether their solution is adequate.

This is much harder in almost any other discipline.

Pass-fail tests in other disciplines are much less useful. You can tell an AI to not use certain words or not write sentences longer than X, but those rules are insufficient.

At no point can a piece of writing or a design be evaluated to “work” the way code does.

red-iron-pine 20 hours ago||
finance is math. there are well understood models for this, and they're not surprising. It should be one area where AI dominates, since usually the finance questions are something to the effect of "will this make me more money, given the risk?" -- which can be measured and modeled, with code.
Havoc 1 day ago||
And they hallucinate errors in the millions and struggle with financial data that is in a layout that isn’t in the training data. Ie balance sheet etc.

Been trying to add more AI to my workflow but it just doesn’t work (yet) - not in the same way as vibe coding does

The technical references lookups work though. Looking up regulations etc

signalcraft 1 day ago||
I think this depends a lot on what context you give it. I've had solid answers on financial stuff when I give it the right info. But, I wouldn't trust it to guess the missing pieces. I'd be curious how much data or context the model's had in the test.
bluecalm 1 day ago|
So I downloaded that report which of course doesn't contain the most relevant information (the questions) but it contains some examples of wrong answers.

I fed the first question to Grok (which they claimed they tested as well) and it answered it correctly in detail.

I repeated it with another one - again correct answer. I then selected the question they said Grok specifically answered incorrectly and it again answered it correctly.

I am sticking with my first intuition: people are terrible at testing tools and probably wanted them to answer incorrectly/not fully (the questions are constructed in a way to make it difficult as well). They also have vested interest in the conclusion (they are financial advisory firm) so there is that to consider.

People reading ft will now think chat boxes are bad at answering financial questions while they are pretty good at it. Zero consequences for spreading fake news for Financial Times there but good for financial advisors I guess.

Dwedit 1 day ago||
LLMs use random numbers, so a single test won't necessarily match someone else's experience.
bluecalm 1 day ago||
They use random numbers so the answers sounds a bit different but in my experience you won't be able to get a wrong answer to a simple question no matter how many times you try it.
ModernMech 1 day ago||
> each LLM was tested 600 times, and in total over 10,000 questions and answers were assessed.

Okay but why do you feel 3 trials say as much as 10,000?

bluecalm 1 day ago||
>>Okay but why do you feel 3 trials say as much as 10,000?

I don't trust them so I've used 3 examples in incorrect questions/answers they have given and I got correct answers. I spend enough time with LLMs to know that if Grok answered it correctly and in detail then it wouldn't be a problem for GPT or Claude either.

The questions are also constructed in a way that it's easy to answer not fully (which they qualify as wrong). LLMs still answer them correctly and in detail though.

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