Yeah okay bud, anyone checked in with the state of consumer hardware recently? Not the author, evidently.
>oh in 3-6 years this will all be over
Yeah I'm sure Samsung, Nvidia and sk hynix will all be very calm with lower volumes and lower margins.
RAM prices will crash when demand drops even a little. They'll probably crash to a lower (inflation adjusted) level than before. This has happened before.
Industrial scaling in general often looks like a sawtooth: price spike, capacity investment, crash, repeat.
Part of what's keeping prices high a little longer is that everyone knows this and is a little reluctant to plow resources into chip fabs for fear of having the bottom fall out before they recoup or sell that to someone else to hold that bag.
Graph the average compute and RAM in a mid-high end laptop at an inflation adjusted price point for the past 40 years. It's very exponential and hasn't slowed down much.
On a long enough scale you are right that prices will likely normalize to a better level, but before 2030? That would mean the factories are built quickly once they begin.
except cxmt who is plowing resources in like crazy
They all collectively chose NOT to increase supply with increased demand. So if the bubble pops, they just go back to previous prices without oversupply driving the prices to rock bottom.