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Posted by vinni2 8 hours ago

Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe(www.economist.com)
https://archive.ph/n8Akh
162 points | 303 commentspage 4
password54321 8 hours ago|
[flagged]
themgt 8 hours ago||
Seems highly plausible AI/robotics will lead a significant decline in public schooling in the near future. Kids honestly might learn better doing a few hours a day one-on-one with 2026 frontier AI than sitting in a classroom of 30 with a teacher. 2027, 2028, 2029?

Modern public education itself is industrial revolution technology. Why would it be left as-is after the intelligence revolution?

ACCount39 7 hours ago||
AI improves a student's ability to learn. It does nothing to improve a student's motivation to learn.

Motivating students to learn is not at all a solved task. And arguably a harder one too. Even the ~2010 "Google and grit" self-teaching is enough to outperform public education - but most students don't have the motivation to pull that off in practice. They have the opportunity, but that matters little if they don't use it.

Espressosaurus 8 hours ago|||
No, they think they learn, then when they need to use that knowledge it turns out they learned nothing.
gdulli 7 hours ago||
Exactly. Calculators didn't make the typical person great at math. They obviated mastery of math.
fnordpiglet 7 hours ago||
Math or arithmetic ? Math isn’t arithmetic any more than juggling is theoretical physics.

Mastery of arithmetic involves memorizing lots of heuristic rules that aren’t particularly insightful about, or are outright conflicting with, the structure of math, and learning the structure of math first slows your ability to do arithmetic.

I don’t think any school hands first graders calculators and asks them to never learn arithmetic. But I see no need once you’re doing algebra to be focusing your time on long division or multiplication. These are irrelevant distractions from algebra, time spent and points lost on arithmetic details is a waste of cognition and doesn’t help. This becomes increasingly true through calculus, linear algebra, until you get to real math courses where a calculator is pointless because arithmetic doesn’t even show up.

drivebyhooting 7 hours ago||
Multiplication needs to be automatic for doing algebra: FOIL and factoring polynomials immediately come to mind.

Long division, at least conceptually, is also present in algebra and partial fractions.

Espressosaurus 6 hours ago||
Similarly, algebra needs to be automatic to do calculus.

Everything builds on everything else.

Zigurd 6 hours ago|||
That's a very attractive idea. KhanMigo was supposed to embody that potential. Seems like it hasn't.

Some kids really enjoy learning. Never mind merely solving an educational assessments problem, personalized learning seems like it has the potential to unlock a lot of intellect across the population. And yet.

password54321 7 hours ago|||
There is a 99% probability this will not happen in your lifetime. Half the point of school is so someone has supervision over children for 6 hours and to be part of a small community.

If anything, if someone is looking for an AI proof job while not wanting to do something braindead, teaching might be one of the good jobs that may get more competitive.

sneak 7 hours ago||
Modern public education is just state subsidized daycare to keep the population at their 9-5.
cubefox 8 hours ago||
There is a very high correlation between national IQ and PISA scores. We know that IQ is declining across the world, and it is declining because fertility and IQ are negatively associated. It's likely that declining IQ is a nontrivial factor for why PISA scores are declining. It is unfortunately still taboo to talk about this. Which is bad, because we can't hope to do anything about it if we don't face the truth.
brabel 7 hours ago||
I saw a post where they showed that ethnically native students in Northern Europe are doing just fine, it’s the non natives, which are up to 30% and even higher in som countries, that are doing poorly. Do they actually look at that in these studies or it’s swiped under the rug as something too inconvenient to discuss? If this is fake news, please correct me if you can show the real figures for this.
sfblah 7 hours ago||
It's because it's inconvenient to discuss. What you said is the actual truth.
brabel 2 hours ago||
The really interesting thing was that when looking further, the results of non-native students reflected closely the scores of their native countries (not the countries where they now live), which is not at all surprising to me (as an immigrant, I don't think I am smarter because I now live in a "smarter" country even if I would love to be) but goes completely against everything people in the education sector appears to believe.
AnimalMuppet 7 hours ago|||
Mind showing a source for IQ declining across the world?
Citizen_Lame 7 hours ago||
IQ is not measure of intelligence, it's more like curriculum test if you go into history of test and how it started.
pixl97 6 hours ago|||
How about this, an IQ test developed in the society you have to survive in is a good indicator of outcomes.

If you want to be a pendant about it then there is no such thing as a comprehensive intelligence test at all as there is no universally agreed upon definition of intelligence. But that's not very useful either.

brabel 7 hours ago||||
I think there is ample evidence IQ correlates with lots of things like job success, performance in mental work, income etc to the point the military and many organizations require an IQ test for sensitive tasks. To dismiss it as curriculum memorization, which I think is what you are hinting at, is demonstrably incorrect.
tptacek 49 minutes ago|||
It's not clear to me why you believe those two claims are in opposition.
pixl97 6 hours ago|||
Outside of science it seems to be that people measure intelligence as "what I feel I have" and nothing else.

Memorization and recall is a huge building block of intelligence itself. Almost everything we call intelligent has some kind of memory to store and work on problems. The more storage you have the more potential intelligence.

sfblah 7 hours ago|||
No serious person in the field agrees with this.
VCFundedGenYer 6 hours ago||
Been saying this for a while. AI is melting away people's mental and cognitive abilities.

Nobody wants to admit it though due to capitalism and VC drunkenness.

This will reach critical mass in a few years.

4g 3 hours ago||
I M M I G R A T I O N A N D G E N E T I C S
niemandhier 8 hours ago||
While kids practice the skills of the 21st century, testing got stuck in the 19 hundreds.

I see kids train edge AI models, built things using coding assistants and discuss post-modern philosophy.

I see the same kids struggle to write structured interpretations of 1950s texts they have no emotional connection to.

Kids are worse in orthography, handwriting, and reading stuffy texts from front to end, but they are so much better in a plethora of skills that did not exist 20 years ago.

lelanthran 7 hours ago||
This is a superficial take.

Kids are worse at reading, period. Not just stuffy texts from 50 years ago, current stuff too according to the research.

The "skills" you claim they are learning have such a low barrier to entry they aren't skills at all.

Instructing a machine "make me a Foo" requires no thought.

AlienRobot 7 hours ago|||
I saw an ad with a guy saying he doesn't write e-mails because he can just speak to the machine, and then the AI does it for him.

Guess we'll live in an illiterate society soon...

spongebobstoes 7 hours ago|||
how is "worse at reading" evaluated?

test taking is not a valuable skill. it's mostly pattern matching against the question

people need new skills in a new age. the education system hasn't even kept pace with the existence of the internet, let alone AI

lelanthran 7 hours ago|||
> how is "worse at reading" evaluated?

I cannot believe you're seriously asking that question.

> people need new skills in a new age.

If it's a skill that is picked up in minutes, it's not really a skill.

mkl95 7 hours ago||||
You read a text. Then, you are asked a series of questions to assess your reading comprehension. Rinse and repeat for a school year to get a solid idea of each student's proficiency.

This skill has been declining steadily since the 1970s, but the decline has accelerated since the mid 2010s. Eventually the productivity boom should take a hit when newer generations struggle to understand basic tasks and the older generations retire. AI is probably orthogonal to the solution space.

spongebobstoes 6 hours ago||
my point is that evaluating reading comprehension is typically done as a test, and test taking is not a valuable skill

the evidence is that individual workers are more productive than ever, and this trend has continued since long before the 1970s. this is despite any measured decline in reading comprehension

the older generations are obviously not propping up the world economy through their singular reading skills

iamnothere 6 hours ago|||
Find a way to test informally, like taking metrics on the number of times that someone misunderstood written questions, instructions, or requirements at work. If it was possible to measure that cleanly, I bet you’d find a similar trend.

I often find that people simply don’t read anymore beyond a sentence or two, which makes it impossible to communicate complex ideas. If it can’t be expressed as a bullet point, it may as well not exist.

pixl97 6 hours ago|||
Individual workers is a rather nebulous statement without citing how the measurement was taken. Like if you have 9 people with zero money and 1 person with a trillion dollars, on average everyone is a multi billionaire.

The vast majority of our production comes from more and more highly automated tools. The concentration of skills to build those things can skew the results in the short term and lead to new and interesting problems long term.

parineum 3 hours ago||
> The vast majority of our production comes from more and more highly automated tools.

That fewer and fewer people operate. Hence the people are more productive. Additionally, instead of everyone being unemployed, we just raise the standard of living and demand more stuff that employs just about everyone.

mehrzad 6 hours ago|||
Your comment reads like satire.
caconym_ 7 hours ago|||
None of the things named in your comment, on either side of the line, really matter.

Reading, writing, and critical thinking skills matter. You don't have to "write structured interpretations of 1950s texts [you] have no emotional connection to" or practice "handwriting, and reading stuffy texts from front to end" to develop those skills (very loaded language, nice job!), but you have to put a lot of time into doing something, ideally somethings, where you're the one doing the heavy intellectual lifting.

Or, we can just write these kids off as a generation incapable of thinking or building by themselves without AI tools that do the thinking and building for them. Honestly, it's probably already too late. The way we've allowed kids of all ages to be exposed to these tools is basically equivalent to handing out cartons of cigarettes in a preschool.

Avicebron 7 hours ago||
One of the weirdest things I noticed when people around me started having kids was how immediately they picked up on their parents obsession with their phones, and would instinctively try to interact with them.

It was odd, disheartening and almost universal (barring the parents who went full 'my kid doesn't use any of the products I build')

vladvasiliu 7 hours ago|||
Why is that weird? I remember when I was a kid, I tried to imitate what my parents were doing, too. Lucky for me, we didn't have smartphones at the time.

I picked up tinkering and sitting in front of a computer from my dad. And, even then, my parents would prevent me from doing this too much, and send me to read a book or go outside and run around.

pixl97 6 hours ago|||
A society is self similar because a huge portion of our social actions are not thought about but copied. Being a parrot saves a massive amount of energy in descending the behavior gradient.
anton-107 7 hours ago|||
According to PISA they did change the tests to be more relevant to using computers. Reading tasks are mostly practical: websites, emails, forum posts, comparing multiple sources and judging whether a source is credible.

So this "old testing" framework is at least from 2010s rather than from 1950s.

solatic 7 hours ago|||
> 1950s texts

The Hobbit was published in 1937 and The Lord of the Rings was published 1954-55.

If the kids can't develop an emotional connection to them, that says much more about their teachers than it does the children or modern times.

reedf1 7 hours ago|||
Kids are not training LoRas without a big budget. I fought for $5 from my parents, I could write C for free.
andsoitis 7 hours ago|||
> I see kids ... discuss post-modern philosophy

Tell us more?

erelong 4 hours ago|||
Fair, maybe finding other ways to measure performance - like actual achievements of kids that you mention - is a better benchmark
trey-jones 7 hours ago|||
Yes - the older I get, the more obvious it is that the mind of a child (and young adult) is better suited to learning, reacts faster, and is more creative than mine.

The attention-deficit that is so common among especially (but not only) young people today means that grabbing their interest is of paramount importance to their learning. Just repeating that kids are bad at reading stuffy texts. But if you can put them onto something that they find interesting, they can definitely excel. I've got tales of high school students who are terrible students, but give them a CAD and 3D printer and they will solve any problem you have.

So - in other news, education is broken. How do we fix it?

mschuster91 7 hours ago||
Education isn't broken, it's gotten too conservative and not able to keep up as a result.
mb7733 7 hours ago|||
> they are so much better in a plethora of skills that did not exist 20 years ago

Such as?

avs733 7 hours ago|||
I teach college… you rent wrong on what they output, you are wrong on the inference drawn from it.

On a regular basis I have students bring me “machine learning” models they have trained, which sounds great. But they have no idea what problem they are solving, what data they have or should have, and no idea why that method, etc. There is no understanding. They use words and concepts from a broad variety of fields, with confidence, but with little deep understanding. The Internet and AI give access to knowledge which is necessary but not sufficient for wisdom.

While K-12 bears a lot of blame (as a system not “teachers”) I’ve come to believe the problem is more societal. What we value and what kids logically perceive will be them ahead in life. If all they ever see is that surface level performance of knowledge is enough…why bother with more?

mcphage 7 hours ago||
If they have no emotional connection to texts from the 50s, then how are they discussing post-modern philosophy? Or rather, how shallowly?
hyperlinerapp 4 hours ago||
Remember that in some liberal schools some of these people will graduate to be your doctors or policy makers, especially if DEI or with a degree studying some perceived social grievance.
max__dev 4 hours ago|
Yes no child left behind is famously liberal dei. /s This issue is non partisan and not limited to the USA.
hyperlinerapp 4 hours ago||
Nowhere in No Child Left Behind it says DEI nor it says to promote children who can’t read or pass standardized tests just so certain politicians can be appeased.
vincent-uden 8 hours ago|
This very much echoes the region of critical slowing down present in a dynamical system after its equilibrium states have disappeared due to a change in the system (a bifurcation).
misterchocolat 8 hours ago||
Holy sentence... George Orwell must be turning in his grave right now.
vincent-uden 8 hours ago|||
A sentence isn't Orwellian just because you are unfamiliar with its terms. I though dynamical systems theory was quite common knowledge among engineers
andsoitis 8 hours ago||
The issue is that you're talking in abstraction and it isn't clear what the concrete thing is you're thinking of. Bluntly: you're being obscure rather than illuminating.

For instance, with respect to this article, which is about test scores, how does dynamical systems theory describe what's going on or predict consequences?

lelanthran 7 hours ago||||
What do you think Orwellian language means?
misterchocolat 7 hours ago|||
Orwell's 6 rules for good writing:

1. Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.

2. Never use a long word where a short one will do.

3. If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.

4. Never use the passive where you can use the active.

5. Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.

6. Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.

Now you tell me

peri-cl 7 hours ago|||
I think GP's was a reference to Politics and the English Language (1946)—not "1984". An essay against convoluted writing styles.

https://www.fadedpage.com/link.php?file=20180223.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_and_the_English_Langu...

johnfn 8 hours ago|||
[flagged]
lbrito 8 hours ago|||
Jira, is that you? Have you become sentient?
andsoitis 8 hours ago|||
restate in simple language please?
vincent-uden 8 hours ago|||
I wanted to relate the result to well known phenomena in Dynamical systems. The value of the comment is in that relationship. But I guess I can try.

After a saddle-node bifurcation (for example) a system is left with a region of critical slowing down. It can be thought of as the ghost of the fix point that used to exist in that region. Thus observing local phenomena in the system can make it look like the system is still stable while in reality it isn't.

I guess the most famous example of this is global warning. As our emissions of greenhouse gases increased during the industrial revolution, the environment still seemed stable. But in reality we had already deleted the stable point around with our planets temperature oscillated.

Lerc 7 hours ago|||
Where is the slowing down? What causes it?

I can see there a compounding drift from the stable point that is not initially apparent because the compounding values have not yet grown sufficiently to be meaningful. It is still an increase in drift

Slowing down implies a decrease though, what does that represent then?

vincent-uden 7 hours ago||
I think we see the slowing down primarily in hiring right?
andsoitis 8 hours ago|||
Is your point that earth is not at a "stable point" or "stable range" but it used to be?

Or are you talking about another system like "society" or "civilization"? Or something else altogether?

vincent-uden 8 hours ago|||
Society, education and white-collar work in this case. Not saying I believe this does mean the collapse of white-collar work of course. Moreso that if that was the case, the point of no return could have already been passed without us knowing.
dandellion 7 hours ago||
For something as abstract as education, is there such a thing as a "point of no return"? It's not obvious to me that's something that degrades in the same way that climate or a physical system does, even if we can draw some parallels. I do think it's still a useful analogy, for example, it would imply that even though we're only starting to notice the ripples of that instability now, it has the implication that fixing it things would mean having to address much more than just what's apparent, we'd also have to fix everything that lead to this mess over the last few decades.
vincent-uden 7 hours ago||
I think there is for a snapshot in time of education or work which is how we commonly think of work right? It isn't true of course. But we sort try to group work into periods of stability between revolutions, industrial, digital or whatever.

We have a chance to adapt, that's for sure. But white-collar work might not exist (or just resemble) as it does today.

But I agree, the category is almost too malleable to analyze.

Citizen_Lame 7 hours ago|||
Everything is a wave and there are always oscillations.
spockz 8 hours ago||||
“ a system can deteriorate slowly even after something fundamental has changed.”: https://chatgpt.com/share/6ab7e7ca-7d54-83ed-931b-55300fa1f4...

So really it is not saying much at all.

vincent-uden 8 hours ago||
A bifurcation is a non-continuous change to a system as a result of a continuous parameter changing.

For example the disappearance of a stable temperature of the earth due to a continuous increase in green house emissions.

In this case the change in test scores is continuous yet might still lead to the disappearance of a stable point in society like white-collar work. At the start the change might seems slow but the point of no return could have already been passed.

I'm not saying I necessarily believe that (or that I stated it with much clarity) but I thought it was interesting how it "rhymes" with dynamical system theory.

apples_oranges 8 hours ago||||
Something changed and adjusting is slow
samudrijan 8 hours ago||
Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
andsoitis 7 hours ago||
The good news is the ocean is vast. You don't need to be on a Titanic.
BobbyTables2 8 hours ago|||
Shit is about to hit the fan.
prescriptivist 8 hours ago||
Yeah that's what I was thinkin, too.