Posted by jonluca 13 hours ago
The Exponential Time Hypothesis Is False [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50251661
I’m currently reading Africa by John Reader which covers a lot of humanity storyline. From HN I get the humanity achievements that are happening right now.
The feeling digesting both daily is in order of magnitudes bigger than what any really exciting tv show did to me.
I honestly at this point don’t know anything about what could be possible and what couldnt.
I understand that this is really freightening, but also especially ETH being false gives even more hope that some fundamental problems could be solved in our lifetime, for example understanding universe, aging, colonization of planets and also our limits. I know I’m the minority, but these answers really interest me.
Even with aging, our efforts are better spent increasing quality of life across humanity than helping a few rich people live to 150.
Eh, speak for yourself.
I'm not sure how anyone can say "nobody is doing x.." or "we'll never be able to do y.." after the advances of the last few years. Not sure you understand the implications of what we're seeing here and what RSI/ASI will bring about.
Even just imagining the technological acceleration we'll experience when open source models at the Opus level can be run without insane hardware (I guess in a year or so) or if we just stopped development of AI today - is still insane.
If there's a will, there's a way. There are engineering solutions to every problem you mentioned.
"Sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
I've worked in ML since 1994. I've been very impressed with the progress of models lately. I read "The Coming Technological Singularity" when it was first written and dedicated my career to seeing these sorts of things coming true.
That doesn't mean that their exponential improvement will change faster than light travel. Therefore, to deliver a human being to the surface of another planet (let's say Proxima Centauri at ~4 ly away) with enough resources to create a stable colony means we'll travel at less than the speed of light. Even with a solar assist, the best we can do right now is less than 1% the speed of light in an unmanned probe. People are working on alternatives, but those are not the sort of technology you just pop in a space ship and send for 400 years to a neighboring star. How do you support a population for 400 years?
As an alternative, let's just make humans like tardigrades, capable of shrivelling up and surviving high-radiation, low-moisture environments. Then we can take 10K years to get to a remote location. As a bonus, the resulting humans can survive in a much wider range of conditions so we have many more target systems to consider. Oh, but that's human engineering- are you sure that we'll just be able to genetically modify people (technologically and morally) at that level any time soon? A single person died in an early gene therapy trial and it shut down the field for 10+ years.
Basically, what you're arguing is that exponential growth in AI (not a given) will unlock huge material sciences and biological advances. While possible, it's unlikely to combine in a way that suggests "we should send people to other solar systems".
Re life quality: Sure technical advancement can lead to cheaper electricity, better materials discovered, disease prevention and a lot of other stuff. A lot is hold back by complexity.
I don’t want to make a call that this will happen and that it’s a net-positive for society. I’m just saying the technical advancements is interesting and enablin.
Theoretically it might be possible to do embryo arks where you would send machines to a new habitable planet and they would travel for hundreds of of thousand of years then build everything up and then artificially bring humans back to life.
Whilst this obviously has an enormous amount of challenges, we don’t know a physical law that is not allowing that.
Imagine what we do now and what we do in 100.000+ years when we face extinction.
We might also just blow us up, even though I think extinction is very unlikely
Practically an embryo ark
There are infinitely many more ways to kill and torture a human than to save one.
If you count “impales person with blue stick while distant asteroid is in position X Y Z” then yes, there are probably infinite, so it depends how you class a discrete method
Depends on what counts as a different way I guess.
And on if you're applying some kind of discrete physical model of the world or not...
Mathematics and computer science are turning into an empirical science
But what they're getting at is that we also want to gain an insight of "what is really going on", and it will take time to distill this proof into a theory that gives us a more complete understanding.
If it's human, at this point, we will see it in the title