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Posted by vok 10 hours ago

The Exponential Time Hypothesis Is False [pdf](github.com)
See also: Announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50251344
567 points | 205 commentspage 2
lisper 9 hours ago|
This seems huge, like not quite p=np but in the same league. Am I missing something ?
krackers 9 hours ago||
[deleted, originally wrote the hypothesis being true would imply NP=EXPTIME which is wrong, since there can be problems in EXPTIME which aren't in NP.

And the result that it's now false apparently doesn't imply NP!=EXPTIME either since it seems not strongly subexponential enough to offset the expansion in variables from reductions. See the other comments for a much better explanation.]

eru 8 hours ago|||
> Instead we now know that NP is a strict subset of EXP (there are problems in NP that can be solved in subexponential time).

It's a bit more complicated than that, if you want to be careful. Sorting is in both NP and EXP and can be solved in subexponential time.

I think what they proved is that no problem in NP takes exponential time to solve. (Because you can always reduce them to SAT in polynomial time, and then solve SAT in subexponential time.)

EDIT: apparently the runtime bounds they gave here don't survive the usual polynomial reductions, thus they haven't proven that NP != EXP, it seems.

luc4 9 hours ago|||
I mean the result that k-SAT cannot be solved in 2^{o(n)} clearly would imply P!=NP, but how does ETH imply NP = EXP? And how does \neg ETH imply NP != EXP?
lynndotpy 9 hours ago|||
If I am understanding this correctly (and I am still reading this!) and if this is true, this means NP is sub-exponential. Sub-exponential does not mean P=NP. But yes, this is huge if true.

This means hard problems aren't as hard as we thought, and it's still possible P=NP. If it turns out to be true P=NP, we're a little closer to that. (I hope P!=NP!)

Every paper which assumes ETH is true might now have their conclusions be disproven.

cochne 8 hours ago||
It doesn't imply NP is sub-exponential, only that 3SAT is. Conversions to other problems can still end up exponential.
wbl 8 hours ago|||
No. NP is always poly time reduceable to 3SAT
cochne 8 hours ago|||
See this from the paper: "Note that runtime bounds of the form 2^o(n) do not transfer under general polynomial-time reductions (2^n^o(1) would be needed for this), so our result does not imply that general NP problems admit subexponential time algorithms."
adgjlsfhk1 8 hours ago|||
OTOH, it would be surprising if this sort of technique didn't apply to other NP problems.
jibalt 6 hours ago||
It's not clear what you're trying to say or the relevance. The fact remains that "NP is always poly time reduceable to 3SAT" and "3SAT is sub-exponential" does not imply that NP is sub-exponential.
adgjlsfhk1 4 hours ago||
right, but anything linearly reducable to kSAT is trivially sub-exponential, and a discovery like this means that linear reductions are a whole lot more important than they used to be.

Also for NP problems that can't linear reduce to kSAT just having the knowledge that SAT is sub-exponential (and the tools), makes it a lot more likely that we see a whole lot more problems become exponential.

calf 3 hours ago||
Yeah that would be interesting, like could there be different NP languages being sub-exponential but for entirely different reasons.
mswphd 7 hours ago||||
practically, a poly-time reduction can increase teh size of hte problem instance. So maybe you transform a 3-color instance (graph on n vertices) into a n^2 sized SAT instance. You can then solve this in time 2^{n^2 / sqrt{log{n^2}}}, but this is not sub-exponential.
jibalt 6 hours ago||||
Your "No" is wrong. As he said, "Conversions to other problems can still end up exponential", so (NP is poly time reduceable to 3SAT + 3SAT is sub-exponential) does not imply that NP is sub-exponential -- the cost of the reduction may be enough to push the conjunction from sub-exponential to exponential.

Note https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50253213 which explains it better.

LPisGood 5 hours ago||||
Subexponential(poly(n)) may be exponential in n
dataflow 8 hours ago|||
Did you reduce in the wrong direction or am I misunderstanding what you're trying to say?
jaggederest 9 hours ago|||
This defeats a few hypotheses that were widely relied on.

strong exponential time hypothesis, and the titular exponential time hypothesis

It's not saying that these problems are easy, but it does demonstrate that they are much easier than previously believed. A decade ago if a human had published this kind of thing, and importantly if it held up, they would be almost certainly a strong candidate for some sort of award(s).

thatoneengineer 9 hours ago||
Assuming P != NP (and that this NP != EXP proof holds up), what's the next most "natural" candidate for how fast NP must grow? This paper appears to show Omega(2^(n/sqrt(log(n))) with a couple additional fudge factors which would be a very disappointing answer.
jibalt 6 hours ago|||
This is not a proof that NP != EXP. NP is poly time reduceable to 3SAT + 3SAT is sub-exponential does not imply that NP is sub-exponential -- the cost of the reduction may be enough to push the conjunction from sub-exponential to exponential.

Note https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50253213 which explains it better.

zeroonetwothree 8 hours ago|||
Definitely puts some weight on the P=NP side of the scale!
kakapo5672 9 hours ago|||
My (very amateur) interpretation is that this weakens confidence in P!=NP. Would like to hear from some experts in this area, if this is so or not.
mudita 8 hours ago|||
Scott Aaronson comments on his blog "Given this news, I’ll up my personal probability of P=NP from 3% to 5%." (https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=10239#comment-2042428)
zeroonetwothree 8 hours ago||
I’m not as smart as Scott but for me it’s more like 10% -> 20%. Do we have a prediction market for this?
jibalt 6 hours ago|||
It seems highly irrational to bet that your evaluation is more likely than Aaronson's.
kibwen 6 hours ago||||
Predictions markets are terrible mechanisms for this, because they require imposing an arbitrary time limit at which point the prediction will pay out. IOW, even if you religiously believed P=NP, but you think it would take at least two years to prove it, you would vote against the prediction if the deadline were one year.
internetter 6 hours ago||
Why must prediction markets have a predefined end date?
jibalt 6 hours ago|||
Without it, capital would be trapped indefinitely.
howunfortunate 4 hours ago||
This is not necessarily true, you could have contracts rather than money down
jibalt 4 hours ago||
[flagged]
Tadpole9181 5 hours ago|||
How would it work otherwise...?
internetter 3 hours ago||
Anybody can exit their contract by selling their contract to an interested party
pcstl 9 hours ago||||
This proves that EXP != NP, which was a stronger claim than P != NP.

In a way it shows that NP is perhaps less distant from P than imagined. Whether it can be _reduced_ to P in some gigabrain way, or whether that can be shown to be impossible remains to be seen.

It is definitely progress towards an answer to P ?= NP.

jibalt 6 hours ago|||
This is not a proof that NP != EXP. NP is poly time reduceable to 3SAT + 3SAT is sub-exponential does not imply that NP is sub-exponential -- the cost of the reduction may be enough to push the conjunction from sub-exponential to exponential.

Note https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50253213 which explains it better.

IsTom 8 hours ago||||
There's a chain of classes P, NP(aka Sigma_1), Sigma_2, .., Sigma_n, ... PSPACE, EXPTIME. What we know for sure is that P < EXPTIME, others are unknown (well, maybe this paper adds something to this, time will tell).

It's conceivable that each of them is smaller than the next, but also that e.g. P < NP = all the sigmas < PSPACE < EXPTIME or many other possibilities. I think the general consensus is that it's more likely that there are more inequalities than not, but the fact is that we can't even show that P is less than PSPACE so far, which would be extraordinarily surprising if it were true.

caughtinthought 9 hours ago|||
It basically just says that NP is not the same as EXP
jibalt 6 hours ago||
This is not a proof that NP != EXP. NP is poly time reduceable to 3SAT + 3SAT is sub-exponential does not imply that NP is sub-exponential -- the cost of the reduction may be enough to push the conjunction from sub-exponential to exponential.

Note https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50253213 which explains it better.

amelius 8 hours ago|||
Subexponential time still can mean much larger than polynomial time. There's a huge space between the two.
odyssey7 9 hours ago|||
It’s not that it isn’t quite p=np; it actually isn’t p=np.

Still, an impressive accomplishment.

adgjlsfhk1 9 hours ago||
no. It's huge.
airtnp 3 hours ago||
I still think P != NP, I would assume 2^{n/log(n)} is an elegant optimal boundary.
js8 3 hours ago||
It would be interesting to see if this new counting method has any implications to counting 2SAT or parity-counting of 2SAT. Since problem posed in XORSAT and 2SAT clauses is NP-complete, this could have implications about P vs NP.
JonChesterfield 7 hours ago||
This construction splits the space into 'small' models with a quadratic lookup cost and 'large' with sub-exponential cost. The small one is by enumerating all SAT problems with their answers, then looking up the answer. The large one is something in polynomials I don't understand. An answer from openai about where the cutoff is was:

    the constructed lookup machine has vastly more states than the estimated total number of physically distinguishable configurations of the observable universe.
I'm not inclined to consider "wrote down all the answers ahead of time, so that's free" as a quadratic time solution to SAT. Nor very convinced by the other half.

So on balance, if this is considered proof that the exponential time hypothesis is false, and openai model reading of the lean was vaguely on point, then I reject the axioms of this system. Not a proof, even if there is lean. I'm OK with being downvoted for that position.

hansvm 5 hours ago||
Double-checking, is this more like the recent DFT improvement where even the word-RAM model of computation doesn't justify the fraction of a log factor they eliminated because of an assumption of arbitrary-precision arithmetic, or has ETH actually fallen with the Lean proof being formulated appropriately? Do we know yet?
adgjlsfhk1 4 hours ago|
The DFT result isn't RAM specific. It holds up in multi-tape turing machines. (it is, however, galactic).
hansvm 3 hours ago|||
That doesn't sound right. Previous results proved that with bounded values you couldn't beat O(nlogn), among other things. The OpenAI result explicitly used arbitrary-precision complex arithmetic. Yes, it's galactic [0], but either it's wrong or the previous results were wrong, no?

[0] Very much not something I care much about in these sorts of conversations. Even if it weren't galactic, a random logn factor here and there usually loses to cache efficiency and whatnot. Their speedups were less than that, and I'd already assumed we were in the realm of applied math rather than real engineering.

adgjlsfhk1 2 hours ago||
> but either it's wrong or the previous results were wrong, no?

Not quite. This result uses polylog(n) precision which isn't bounded, so it escapes the previous bounds. This doesn't noticably affect the runtime because not all of the math needs this extra precision (in this case you need a couple computations in higher precision but less than n operations), so the extra precision can be payed for even in a TM/circuit model.

lg5689 2 hours ago|||
Are you thinking of the int multiplication result instead? The DFT result uses a computation model with unlimited precision reals.
adgjlsfhk1 2 hours ago||
no. The DFT result as published uses unlimited precision, but the comparison with the int multiplication shows that the unlimited precision just makes the paper shorter/easier rather than being an exploit in the computation model.
reenorap 4 hours ago||
What about OpenAI allowed ETH to be determined to be false that couldn't be done by humans? Was there something in particular that OpenAI's AI did that help bridge the gap to a solution?
hardbass 11 minutes ago|
What about a particular mathematician solving a problem that couldn't be solved by other mathematicians?
marshray 7 hours ago||
If I can "count the satisfying assignments of a k-CNF in subexponential time and polynomial space", could I just count the the solutions for assignments of 0 and 1 to x_1, then proceed with whichever is greater (or nonzero), counting the solutions for x_2=0, and so on.

Doesn't that lead me to an existence proof (i.e., a solution) to a k-SAT problem in N*(subexponential_time and polynomial_space)?

And with constant folding, N is reduced by 1 on each iteration.

What obvious thing am I missing here?

rnbnnnn 4 hours ago||

  Higgledy-piggledy,
  Exp. Time Hypothesis:
  Runtime complexity
  Soars to the sky.

  Subexponentially,
  Tensor contractions have
  Tallied solutions for
  OpenAI.
zahlman 41 minutes ago|
(For those unfamiliar with the form: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_dactyl )
nemo44x 7 hours ago||
We are living in such a weird, amazing, and miraculous time. It’s completely surreal.
antics 8 hours ago|
Perhaps this will be the push we need to finally, seriously consider the possibility that our formalisms of “efficient” and “efficiently verifiable” algorithms correspond to nothing resembling reality, and P \in NP is actually ill-posed.

This has been marginally debated since the mid 90s, when Impagliazzo published the “5 worlds” survey. Occasionally it is brought up in talks about average case analysis. There is occasionally a workshop about it. But it has never really got the attention it deserved. How many more of these results do we need to take it seriously? (Assuming we do indeed certify it.)

eru 8 hours ago|
> Perhaps this will be the push we need to finally, seriously consider the possibility that our formalisms of “efficient” and “efficiently verifiable” algorithms correspond to nothing resembling reality,

What do you mean? Do you mean that our heuristics shortcuts of treating P as efficiently solvable (and NP as efficiently verifiable) are not warranted? So far pretty much all algorithms in P that we found have small exponents. That hasn't changed, but it might change in the future.

Or do you mean something else?

Keep in mind that even most instances of many NP hard problems can be solved very efficiently in practice, because most instances ain't hard.

However we know problems that are expected to be 'easier' than NP that are hard to solve in practice. These are pretty much all the problems we build cryptography out of, because essentially these problems are in the intersection of NP and co-NP and that's expected to be smaller than NP. And cryptography has to be hard to break on average to work: a random key needs to be a good key.

> and P \in NP is actually ill-posed.

Oh, that's very simple to answer: P is not an element of NP. The question people care about is whether there's any element in NP that's not in P. In LaTeX notation P \subset NP vs P \subseteq NP.

I'm not sure what you mean by ill-posed? The question is very clear. What are you trying to say?

antics 7 hours ago||
"Ill-posed" here means that the formalisms we've chosen to represent "efficient" and "efficiently verifiable" algorithms could turn out to not correspond to anything humans would consider meaningful ("we posed the problem poorly"). For most people, a solution to an NP-complete problem that's barely-subexponential would be clear evidence of these formalisms being ill-posed.

There are many ways it might turn out to be ill-posed, this is just one of them. Impagliazzo's "5 worlds" survey is in some sense a catalog of some of these ways, and includes some of the ways you seem to be referencing (approxmations, probabilistic techniques, average-case efficiency; depending what you mean this could lie in the "Heuristica" world).

eru 6 hours ago||
> "Ill-posed" here means that the formalisms we've chosen to represent "efficient" and "efficiently verifiable" algorithms could turn out to not correspond to anything humans would consider meaningful ("we posed the problem poorly").

OK, that's a reasonable worry and one that practitioners share. Thanks for explaining. Though I don't think ill-posed is a good term for this, the technical meaning of the term points in a different direction.

So far, as far as I can tell this new result gives much of any extra credence to that worry.

antics 6 hours ago||
It is completely acceptable in math to use "ill-posed" to indicate that something is insufficiently specified, improperly formulated, or ambiguous. Math people do this all the time.
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