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Posted by rbanffy 2 hours ago

Kalshi and its co-founders face felony charges for violating Utah gambling laws(arstechnica.com)
181 points | 102 comments
paxy 1 hour ago|
There’s a reason both Kalshi and Polymarket were quick to make political connections (aka pay bribes). They know what they are doing is illegal, and waiting for legislation like sports betting apps did would take too long. So they bought get out of jail free cards instead.
mahboi 53 minutes ago|
Trump's family being on the board is alarming for another reason. There are several markets about the president's actions that often involve missiles.
cj 31 minutes ago||
If the goal is to profit off of bombing other countries, why do you need Kalshi?

If you have advance knowledge of an attack, there are much less conspicuous ways to profit off that.

jayd16 1 minute ago|||
"can't be brazen corruption because it's too obviously brazen corruption"
ceejayoz 3 minutes ago||||
> there are much less conspicuous ways to profit

What about this administration makes you think that's important to them?

mahboi 26 minutes ago||||
What's the less conspicuous way? Oil futures are more conspicuous. Though I'll bet he's doing that for someone less directly connected.
freejazz 19 minutes ago||||
Who cares about being conspicuous anymore? The president openly takes crypto bribes...
whateveracct 20 minutes ago|||
It's just another avenue for grift. In corrupt governments, the people up top ration out minor grifts to subordinates to keep them loyal.
tfrancisl 51 minutes ago||
When will we start holding the people who found and operate companies whose sole purpose is to break the law accountable, rather than letting them hide behind "limited liability"?

These founders should be in prison for promoting illegal gambling. Same federal charges mafiosos get caught on for a "friendly card game".

JumpCrisscross 19 minutes ago||
> When will we start holding the people who found and operate companies whose sole purpose is to break the law accountable

You don’t even have to read the article, the headline says it all…

sailfast 33 minutes ago|||
I dunno it sure seems to have worked for Uber and AirBnB…

I would amend your “breaking the law” comment to “willfully ignoring all regulation, taxes, and labor provisions” perhaps but, same sentiment.

whimsicalism 2 minutes ago|||
I think sometimes people need a visceral demonstration of what bad laws are actually preventing. Uber was a pareto improvement in my view: we are in a better world both for consumers & for low-income wages having ridesharing as a backstop.

On the other hand, I've come around to the view that sports betting is a net unqualified bad -- and I didn't necessarily feel that way before the Kalshi/PM explosion.

jmuguy 2 minutes ago|||
What behavior from Airbnb do you think compares in criminality to running an online bookie?
petcat 27 minutes ago|||
> should be in prison for promoting illegal gambling

The problem lies in the legal gray area of what constitutes gambling, and therefore "illegal" gambling. That's what the courts have to decide.

I think most people would say this is gambling. But our legal system has to rule on that before we can start putting people in jail for it.

betterunix2 22 minutes ago|||
If it is not gambling then it amounts to an unregulated futures market, which is also illegal. There is no way around this for Kalshi/Polymarket, they have broken the law and the only question is which law was broken.
whimsicalism 42 seconds ago|||
? But Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC
petcat 19 minutes ago||||
Right, but the point is that we don't just go from popular outrage about a shady business model to "straight to prison". The courts have to untangle the legalities of the shady business model before we can even determine what the charges would be. And that's what they're doing.
lotsofpulp 13 minutes ago|||
The federal government has claimed Kalshi is a regulated futures market.

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9281-26

freejazz 18 minutes ago|||
This would be a great post for Kalshi's lawyers to make. Hard to believe it though. To be clear it is a not a fundamental proposition of the legal system that every illegal activity be tested before it "actually" becomes illegal. It is a business' obligation to not violate the law, not the other way around.
petcat 12 minutes ago||
I'm not going to argue the merits of their business model. But the fact that numerous lawsuits have had mixed rulings indicates that there is at least some legal gray area here.

But if you know better then maybe you should just decree from the courtroom in your house and send your ruling to the AGs of all 50 states.

furytrader 46 minutes ago||
You need to take a course in basic business.
tfrancisl 28 minutes ago||
I think I understand the basics of business and business law in the US. It is disgusting how easy it is to hide behind a corporation or LLC to avoid criminal charges and civil liability.
jsw97 14 minutes ago||
I'm not sure specifically about the moral crusade against Kalshi and Polymarket, but I am glad to see that at least one state is serious about its sovereignty and is willing to go to the mat with criminal charges. Utah 100% has a right to enforce this and I hope they are successful. And taking on the feds too, that is a gutsy move.

We need at least one state to do this when large corporations violate privacy laws.

tgsovlerkhgsel 1 minute ago||
Now do video game lootboxes.
mahboi 1 hour ago||
Wonder how proxies/VPNs play into this, since Utah was recently in the news about an age verification law that basically said you're liable if anyone physically in Utah accesses a restricted site.
timcobb 17 minutes ago||
Just the day I saw a post in the Guardian referring to these things as prediction markets. It's so outrageous and undeserved
yowayb 1 hour ago||
i feel like there's some provable equivalency between gambling and pyramid schemes
freecodeio 53 minutes ago||
the equivalency is both go bankrupt if people win as much as the house wants you to think they win
ToValueFunfetti 25 minutes ago||
Prediction markets' business model is taking transaction fees from contracts between independent counterparties. Kalshi won't go bankrupt no matter how much you make there (though 'people' collectively will make negative [fees + taxes]).
quickthrowman 1 hour ago|||
I’m not sure what you mean.

A pyramid scheme uses new investor money to pay fake returns to those who have already invested.

A casino provides games to bet on where expected value for the player is negative. A sportsbook balances their book by modifying the odds to remain as neutral as possible and capture the spread (see ‘vig’).

There’s not a whole lot of similarity there.

MOARDONGZPLZ 57 minutes ago||
Probably referring to online gambling specifically. And I would frame it as the folks who promote pyramid schemes are the same as those who promote online gambling.
red-iron-pine 7 minutes ago||
scammin the rubes
superxpro12 2 hours ago||
kalshi and polymarket are quite obvious gambling sites. any pedantic arguments to the contrary are strictly financial chaff to enhance their operating margins until the regulations finally catch up.

they were never an innovating marketing play... it was the culmination of a gambling company committing to regulatory capture as evinced by Donald Trump Jr (totally not) sitting on BOTH BOARDS as a "paid strategic advisor" or whatever lie they want to spin.

MSFT_Edging 1 hour ago||
There are ads on the DC Metro right now that advertise one of these as a source of truth for election polling. The poster says something like "98% accuracy" and in super fine print, specifies something like "within 2 hours of polls closing" and other normal fine print stuff.

To me it's absolutely crazy that the "gamble on anything" apps are being advertised as some kind of polling software. I've already seen at least one race called into question because the gamblers bet on the wrong pony.

They're pure corruption engines designed for insider betting. The top brass of these companies need to be made example of.

boscillator 6 minutes ago|||
I've seen those and they are crazy! Many elections are decided by the primary anyway, and then of course exit polls are going to be basically accurate 2 hours before the election. It's not even that fine print, I think they may actually just be stupid.
red-iron-pine 6 minutes ago|||
> They're pure corruption engines designed for insider betting. The top brass of these companies need to be made example of.

is there any surprise then that Trumps are on the boards of both?

austin-cheney 1 hour ago|||
The LDS church (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints), which is also based in Utah has provided explicit guidance against participation in Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling.

Here is their official stance on gambling: https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/manual/gospel-topi...

I am not sure how much, if any, impact or influence this has had on Utah law.

jboggan 1 hour ago|||
They absolutely have been the main force behind the timing of this push. It was the main topic of General Conference a few weeks ago and one of the most eyebrow-raising articulations of official church policy.

Given the way that the church has explicitly encouraged state legislators to shoot down recent laws it's not surprising to think they'd be pushing for this.

bobtheborg 9 minutes ago||||
I thought it worth posting the stance for those not willing to click

... Gambling is motivated by a desire to get something for nothing. This desire is spiritually destructive. It leads participants away from the Savior’s teachings of love and service and toward the selfishness of the adversary. It undermines the virtues of work and thrift and the desire to give honest effort in all we do.

Those who participate in gambling soon discover the deception in the idea that they can give little or nothing and receive something of value in return. They find that they give up large amounts of money, their own honor, and the respect of family members and friends. Deceived and addicted, they often gamble with funds they should use for other purposes, such as meeting the basic needs of their families. Gamblers sometimes become so enslaved and so desperate to pay gambling debts that they turn to stealing, giving up their own good name.

mahboi 1 hour ago||||
Also "Utah is one of only two states where gambling is also prohibited under the state constitution"
gottorf 1 hour ago||
Funnily enough, Hawaii is the other one. Three more states also do not have lotteries.
mahboi 1 hour ago||
Hm, I could get behind that in California
petcat 1 hour ago|||
Ehh I wouldn't try to appeal too much to what the LDS church thinks about this. They require members to give 10% of their annual income to the church, while already having close to $300 billion in the bank.

Everyone knows the state of Utah is largely run by the church.

Shared404 37 seconds ago|||
> Everyone knows the state of Utah is largely run by the church.

Surprisingly few people know this ime. It's worth pointing out as one of the few areas where the church has as much pull as its members think it does.

While I wouldn't look to the church as a bastion of morality for So Many Reasons, it's worth looking at a hard example of how it is able to manipulate politics in Utah, and by extension nationwide.

wredcoll 1 hour ago||||
If the state of utah is run by the church, then presumably if the church wants to ban kalshi, it's going to matter.
mahboi 1 hour ago|||
The point isn't to appeal, right? Just speculate on whether the church is the reason for this.
derektank 1 hour ago|||
I don’t see the clear difference between something like Kalshi and, say, Robinhood. I do see a clear difference between Kalshi and casinos or sports gambling sites like Fan Duel; in the latter, your counterparty is the institution itself. This creates a lot of perverse incentives on the part of sports gambling sites to maintain their edge, such as banning bettors that are too good at playing the odds. Kalshi, on the other hand, is never your counterparty in any transaction.

Now, Robinhood is a brokerage, regulated by FINRA, and has been fined for misbehavior in the past. So I am more than willing to believe that there is daylight here that I’m not seeing. But anything that lets you speculate attracts a certain clientele, and I think the most important distinction is whether or not the platform itself is an interested party.

Projectiboga 7 minutes ago|||
Robinhood is regulated under the SEC and other regulatory bodies and keeps "paper trails" of the trades.
mcmcmc 58 minutes ago||||
If the differentiating factor is just who you’re betting against, how are Kalshi et al any different from online poker? It’s still gambling, the house just takes a rake
omilu 27 minutes ago||
Because you can easily collude and cheat at poker so it needs to be heavily regulated or outright illegal to prevent theft. You can't really cheat at prediction markets, unless you have insider information which they can litigate after the fact.
mcmcmc 10 minutes ago|||
[delayed]
JumpCrisscross 17 minutes ago|||
> You can't really cheat at prediction markets

Lots of folks gripe about how Kalshi adjudicates contracts.

mahboi 1 hour ago||||
Besides the brokerage being regulated, stock markets are regulated.
calvinmorrison 1 hour ago||
basically, does the government have its thumb on the scale makes it legal. Gambling is so bad and illegal, except when the pennsylvania lottery does it. Alcohol, bad and illegal, except when the state monopoly sells it.
toyg 40 seconds ago|||
That's such a poor argument. Illegal building is bad because it's illegal; illegal gambling is bad because it's illegal. This is just how laws work. Heck, in the US even homicide is bad because it's illegal, when you consider that there is a legal version of it.
kube-system 48 minutes ago||||
There are very good reasons that gambling and financial markets are regulated.
mahboi 1 hour ago||||
Yep. Hope they kill Kalshi.
walthamstow 1 hour ago|||
Devices that broadcast wifi illegal except when the FCC says so. Damn government with their thumb on the scales.
verdverm 52 minutes ago|||
It's really the worst of both combined. There is ample gambling like options and behavior on Kalshi

&&

policy makers, assistants, journalists, and the like are insider trading - and the president of the united states is intentionally market manipulating for profit

seki285 2 hours ago||
A week ago if you dared to say anything critical of polymarket you would be drowned out in replies talking about the "wonderful societal benefits" of gambling on daily life and how it "informs decision making" and helps the "common people".
red-iron-pine 3 minutes ago|||
51% or more of social media is automated.

Bots Rule Everything Around Me BREAM dollar dollar bill yall.

like, of course the gambling halls drop big money on online marketing

nilamo 43 minutes ago||||
What in the revisionist history? Polymarket has been getting shit on here since it debuted.
freejazz 14 minutes ago||
Not really. I can recall countless threads where everyone said that this improves information availability. Do you want me to go through my post history to find them?
mahboi 1 hour ago||||
I liked it for political races as an alternative to polls. Was terrible for several other things. 99% of it was really just sports betting, which I can't see being a good thing.
baggachipz 1 hour ago|||
The genie's way out of the bottle with sports betting. Nonstop ads, branding tie-ins, billboards, podcast ads, on and on.

And it's terrible and going to destroy sports.

kube-system 53 minutes ago||||
We don't need more financial incentive to influence the outcome of elections, there's already enough as it is.
rbanffy 1 hour ago|||
> I liked it for political races as an alternative to polls.

With enough funds, smaller political races can be gamed.

mahboi 1 hour ago||
Yeah that too, so only the big ones. Obviously the law can't distinguish since it's all the same kind of gambling.
kube-system 56 minutes ago||
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josefritzishere 21 minutes ago|
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