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Posted by madihaa 2 days ago

$2.5T has been wiped from US stocks(finlaws.substack.com)
164 points | 157 commentspage 4
SwellJoe 2 days ago|
As usual, I was right about the market but way too early. I sold all of my AI-exposed stocks last year, as I knew the investment going into it couldn't be recouped in a reasonable time. If I'd held longer, I'd be up about 2x on those shares even if I'd only sold in a panic yesterday.

But, it also means I can probably reinvest in some of those stocks now that a correction is in progress. There are some excellent tech companies with strong leadership and strong growth (e.g. ARM) that have been too expensive for a long time; still too expensive, but getting closer to reasonable.

cgeier 1 day ago||
Being early means you were not right, it‘s all about the timing.
SwellJoe 1 day ago|||
It's about timing and direction. Timing doesn't matter if it's not a well-run business.

Most of my holdings with AI exposure were and are well-run businesses; they were when I bought them, when I sold them, and throughout the AI-inspired rise. The problem was I didn't believe there was sufficient market opportunity to justify the stratospheric rise, and I think the market has now begun to catch up to that thinking. The market has begun to agree with the premise I based my decision to sell on.

I suspect the decline will continue and I will be able to buy back into at least some of the stocks I sold at a price better than what I sold them for.

So, yes, my post was to say I am frequently wrong on timing, even if the premise I based a decision on turns out to be true. I don't understand people, but I understand tech.

curiousllama 1 day ago|||
I know they'd be down 50%! I just didn't know they'd be up 500% before that.
gopher2000 1 day ago||
"I thought they'd be down 50% and they're up 450% so I was mostly right"
hagbard_c 1 day ago|||
Yes, well, remember the dot-com boom/bust cycle? Lots of people lost a lot of money then but not all of those stocks ended up becoming worthless. Some held on to what they had and made a fortune once the internet-hype was over and the internet-era began. The same could happen with some - but certainly not all - of these 'AI-exposed' stocks. Once the 'AI' hype is over the 'AI era' will probably begin, especially if the dearth of RAM and matrix processing capacity is solved somehow.
SwellJoe 1 day ago||
That was the first time I was right but early. I sold out well before the peak to start a business with the money. I made money, roughly tripling my investment, but lots of folks made more money (and lots of folks lost a lot of money). In this case, I sold at a profit, but I could have made a bigger profit by being more slow to respond to my understanding of the market.
png732 1 day ago||
With all respect, you were not right. Your stocks are still above where they were when you sold them. To say that the stocks you held would at some point experience a large one day drop is a certainty.
SwellJoe 1 day ago||
I've never said "one day drop".
png732 1 day ago||
To say that the market would have a correction at some point in the future is also a certainty.
0xy 1 day ago|||
So you sold low and are now buying in high? Seems like you just massively misjudged the market.
tjwebbnorfolk 1 day ago||
Tell me the difference between early and wrong
SwellJoe 1 day ago||
I mean, I made money on all of them. 3x on ARM. And, there are folks who lost a bunch of money by being long today in all of those stocks.

But, also, right but early isn't worth much. I've sold too soon many times...most often making money, but selling early in the rise.

bell-cot 2 days ago||
Similar to the old saw about you owning the bank $10 thousand vs. $10 billion, the "value" of stocks does not scale.
hn_submit 2 days ago||
People the AIpocalypse is real!! Brace yourselves for a $10 Trillion wipeout.

Anthropic and OpenAI will disintegrate and vanish in the mist.

That's all folks!!!

yread 2 days ago||
I'm already pushing my bathtub out so that I can catch all the GPUs that will soon start raining down from the clouds
drivebyhooting 2 days ago||
I hope not. I need my subsidized subscription and I’m not satisfied with argon
novaRom 2 days ago||
Selling AI stocks before year-end makes sense, right? New Congress, new House take over in January. Cost of living so tax hikes next year. Better to lock in gains now than pay more later? Besides cash is now bringing more than 4% pa
hoppp 2 days ago||
End year sales are common. Black friday, Christmas whatever. People spend and taking profit feels good.
aaron695 2 days ago|||
[dead]
triceratops 1 day ago|||
> Cost of living so tax hikes next year. Better to lock in gains now than pay more later?

Deliberately pay capital gains tax now on the off-chance taxes go up next year? You do you my friend.

ThunderSizzle 1 day ago||
I expect Democrats to be as pro big business as they always have been - as long as they are "regulated" to be in sync with Democrats desires.

They'll be anti data centers until they are no longer the opposition party. Then suddenly both Republicans and Democrats will change while MAGA/America First and woke 2.0/socialists sides won't have changed at all.

Isn't the political party system great!

cpursley 1 day ago||
Datacenters of Democracy, aka USAIDS 2.0.
deadbabe 1 day ago|
[flagged]
posix_compliant 1 day ago|
What an inane comment. AI came out of 1950s university labs, not a political party, and tech workers still donate overwhelmingly to Democrats. Republicans and Democrats worry about AI at nearly identical rates. Copyright, energy and jobs are real issues, but a boycott fixes none of them. And "give back all tech gains" means nothing.