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Posted by dgellow 1 day ago

Anthropic IPO buyers see valuation as low as $1.1T(www.bloomberg.com)
https://epyhia.com/anthropic-ipo-valuation-talks-drop-to-1-3...
305 points | 611 commentspage 6
rajup 23 hours ago|
As "low" as 1.1T. What a world we live in where 1.1T is considered "low"...
m4rtink 19 hours ago||
Still at least $1.1T too high.
rahulyc 1 day ago||
People seem unnecessarily deluded here in a supposed hacker forum. If they are really created actual digital intelligence smarter than every human and figure it out how to control it, then 1T dollars means this is the most undervalued business in the entire world. Maybe by 100x or 1000x. You have billions of super genius slaves in data centers that do whatever you want, then if a single human developer can earn $100k/year pessimisticly let alone a super genius one. Multiply that by a billion and do the math at 80% gross margins
afavour 1 day ago||
…and what if they haven’t? Given that we haven’t seen evidence of one so far.

You’re also missing the competition aspect. What if other companies have their own super genius slaves to sell at a cheaper price? What if open models allow anyone to have their own moderately genius slave at far less expense?

ReaLNero 1 day ago|||
Yours is a reasonable estimate at the _value_ of their product. They will only be able to capture that value if their competition cannot catch up AND they can reduce spend on R&D. I personally do not believe they’ll defeat distillation.
notnullorvoid 1 day ago|||
> If they are really created actual digital intelligence smarter than every human

Whoever is claiming that is an idiot.

ahartmetz 1 day ago|||
What if they have billions of super genius slaves, but Chinese companies have just slightly less super genius (and catching up) slaves for 1/4th of the price, while all prices are already dropping?
bunderbunder 1 day ago|||
I see nothing delusional in speculating that that’s a very big if.

And if they haven’t created an artificial superintelligence then they start to look more like just another tech startup with no moat[1] and a terrible balance sheet.

[1] I don’t know about you, but I switch model providers multiple times per day.

asadotzler 1 day ago||
If a frog had wings...

You are making claims with no basis, caveat-ed by "if," and then calling everyone here fools for not basing their beliefs on your wishful thinking.

techblueberry 1 day ago||
But we're so close to RSI!
theandrewbailey 1 day ago|
A lot of people have had it for decades. It really hurts.
vb-8448 23 hours ago||
wasn't 1.3 just a couple of hours ago and 1.5 yesterday?
ryzvonusef 1 day ago||
that's low enough Musky could just buy it out right, jeez.
syngrog66 20 hours ago||
"as low as $1.1T"

the absurdity

HexnMarcusWolfe 1 day ago||
They made a typo, it's more like $11B
DoesntMatter22 1 day ago||
SpaceX had insanely great timing. They came in and ate up a lot of the available capital at the most prime the they could.

Antropic will be fine I think but open AI will probably have issues

origini 1 day ago|
Space-X and Tesla has to be a very very weird mix of person cult and fluke.

Tesla was what everyone valued crazy a because Tesla is not a car company, now Space-X is doing the same s*it as Tesla.

The general economy/inflation etc. and cost o fmoney is for sure not a good sign. Lets hope, i def want to invest in Anthropic.

DoesntMatter22 23 hours ago||
Don't think SpaceX is a cult of personality mix. Making rocketry cheap is how they got to where they are.
origini 23 hours ago||
Space payload before Space-X and Starlink was 1000t and increased to 3000t because of starlink.

To get enough payload into space that the evaoluation is worth while, he really need to do this datacenter in space thing and sending enough hardware up there to match just one GPU based datacenter would take one Starship launch every single day.

Lets ignore that building Datacenter on earth is stll A LOT easier and cheaper to do and that we shouldn't vaporize non sustainable metals into our atmosphere alone for health reasons.

We have robots, AI (which is so bad that he prevers to rent out his AI hardware instea d of making more money with it directly), 3 Car models and something else combined in two companies with an overall value over 3T.

This setup is still higher valuated as plenty of big car manufacturers, robotics companies and a lot more other companies thrown into the mix together.

What am Im missing here?

DoesntMatter22 16 hours ago||
You are missing mostly that you are blinded by your ideological position.
origini 13 hours ago||
I talked clear numbers, you don't even try to argue.

I actually calculated and researched these numbers and while it seems that you are dismissive because of your ideological position? i saw and read Elon Musks claim about AI Datacenters in Space and him writing about a dyson sphere and calling it bullshit.

You are not evaluated as the 7/8th most valuable companie on the planet just because you build rockets and send up a little bit of payload. Thats why their P/E is 3 digits.

paulpauper 1 day ago|
Polymarket put a valuation at around $1.7 trillion
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